台湾大学财务廖咸兴-Valuing Stocks Training

Chapter5FundamentalsofCorporateFinanceThirdEditionValuingStocksBrealeyMyersMarcusslidesbyMatthewWill下载更多培训资料，尽在httpmanarenIrwin/McGraw-HillTopicsCoveredStocksandtheStockMarketBookValues,LiquidationValuesandMarketValuesValuingCommonStocksSimplifyingtheDividendDiscountModelGrowthStocksandIncomeStocks下载更多培训资料，尽在httpmanarenStocks&StockMarketPrimaryMarket-Placewherethesaleofnewstockfirstoccurs.InitialPublicOffering(IPO)-Firstofferingofstocktothegeneralpublic.SeasonedIssue-SaleofnewsharesbyafirmthathasalreadybeenthroughanIPO下载更多培训资料，尽在httpmanarenStocks&StockMarketCommonStock-Ownershipsharesinapubliclyheldcorporation.SecondaryMarket-marketinwhichalreadyissuedsecuritiesaretradedbyinvestors.Dividend-Periodiccashdistributionfromthefirmtotheshareholders.P/ERatio-Pricepersharedividedbyearningspershare.Stocks&StockMarketStocks&StockMarketBookValue-Networthofthefirmaccordingtothebalancesheet.LiquidationValue-Netproceedsthatwouldberealizedbysellingthefirm’sassetsandpayingoffitscreditors.MarketValueBalanceSheet-Financialstatementthatusesmarketvalueofassetsandliabilities.ValuingCommonStocksExpectedReturn-Thepercentageyieldthataninvestorforecastsfromaspecificinvestmentoverasetperiodoftime.Sometimescalledtheholdingperiodreturn(HPR).ValuingCommonStocksTheformulacanbebrokenintotwoparts.DividendYield+CapitalAppreciationValuingCommonStocksDividendDiscountModel-Computationoftoday’sstockpricewhichstatesthatsharevalueequalsthepresentvalueofallexpectedfuturedividends.H-Timehorizonforyourinvestment.ValuingCommonStocksExample CurrentforecastsareforXYZCompanytopaydividendsof$3,$3.24,and$3.50overthenextthreeyears,respectively.Attheendofthreeyearsyouanticipatesellingyourstockatamarketpriceof$94.48.Whatisthepriceofthestockgivena12%expectedreturn?ValuingCommonStocksExample CurrentforecastsareforXYZCompanytopaydividendsof$3,$3.24,and$3.50overthenextthreeyears,respectively.Attheendofthreeyearsyouanticipatesellingyourstockatamarketpriceof$94.48.Whatisthepriceofthestockgivena12%expectedreturn?ValuingCommonStocks Ifweforecastnogrowth,andplantoholdoutstockindefinitely,wewillthenvaluethestockasaPERPETUITY.Assumesallearningsarepaidtoshareholders.ValuingCommonStocksConstantGrowthDDM-Aversionofthedividendgrowthmodelinwhichdividendsgrowataconstantrate(GordonGrowthModel). Givenanycombinationofvariablesintheequation,youcansolvefortheunknownvariable.ValuingCommonStocksExample Whatisthevalueofastockthatexpectstopaya$3.00dividendnextyear,andthenincreasethedividendatarateof8%peryear,indefinitely?Assumea12%expectedreturn.ValuingCommonStocksExample-continued Ifthesamestockissellingfor$100inthestockmarket,whatmightthemarketbeassumingaboutthegrowthindividends?Answer Themarketisassumingthedividendwillgrowat9%peryear,indefinitely.ValuingCommonStocksIfafirmelectstopayalowerdividend,andreinvestthefunds,thestockpricemayincreasebecausefuturedividendsmaybehigher.PayoutRatio-FractionofearningspaidoutasdividendsPlowbackRatio-Fractionofearningsretainedbythefirm.ValuingCommonStocks Growthcanbederivedfromapplyingthereturnonequitytothepercentageofearningsplowedbackintooperations.g=returnonequityXplowbackratioValuingCommonStocksExample Ourcompanyforecaststopaya$5.00dividendnextyear,whichrepresents100%ofitsearnings.Thiswillprovideinvestorswitha12%expectedreturn.Instead,wedecidetoplowback40%oftheearningsatthefirm’scurrentreturnonequityof20%.Whatisthevalueofthestockbeforeandaftertheplowbackdecision?ValuingCommonStocksExample Ourcompanyforecaststopaya$5.00dividendnextyear,whichrepresents100%ofitsearnings.Thiswillprovideinvestorswitha12%expectedreturn.Instead,wedecidetoblowback40%oftheearningsatthefirm’scurrentreturnonequityof20%.Whatisthevalueofthestockbeforeandaftertheplowbackdecision?NoGrowthWithGrowthValuingCommonStocksExample-continued Ifthecompanydidnotplowbacksomeearnings,thestockpricewouldremainat$41.67.Withtheplowback,thepriceroseto$75.00. Thedifferencebetweenthesetwonumbers(75.00-41.67=33.33)iscalledthePresentValueofGrowthOpportunities(PVGO).下载更多培训资料，尽在httpmanarenValuingCommonStocksPresentValueofGrowthOpportunities(PVGO)-Netpresentvalueofafirm’sfutureinvestments.SustainableGrowthRate-Steadyrateatwhichafir