某咨询天津LG发展战略咨询报告

CONFIDENTIALDevelopingaWinningStrategyfortheMicrowaveOvenBusinessinChinaLGElectronicsTianjinAppliancesCo.,LtdFinalprogressreviewApril9,2001Thisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclientorganizationwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ThismaterialwasusedbyMcKinsey&Companyduringanoralpresentation;itisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion.010326SH_120703_085v5iTHEJOINTLG/McKINSEYTEAMHASCOMPLETEDTHEPROJECTWITHIN5WEEKSModulesKeyactivitiesMarketDemand/ForecastForecastpotentialmarketbysegmentthroughrefiningmarketsegmentation,understandingkeygrowthdrivers,andmodelingmarketgrowthLGEperformanceassessmentConductinternaldatacollectionwithinLGEDevelopsoundunderstandingofvaluepropositionbasedonavailablemarketresearchincludingbrandingandconsumersurveyStrategicdevelopmentopportunitiesAnalyzedifferentproductmixoptionsGatherinformationonbrandingandmarketingConductchanneldiagnosisAnalyzevaluechaincostsCompetitorDevelopcompetitiveassessmentformicrowaveovencompetitorsConductinterviewswithdistributors,retailers,governmentagencies,competitorstocollectcompetitorinformationConsumerConductconsumersurveyviaexternalresearchhousein6specifiedcitiesand1ruralareatounderstandconsumerpurchasingbehaviorEndproductsMarketdemandforecastbyareasandproducttypeCurrentorganization’sstrengthsandweaknessesCurrentprocessesandincentivesystemsstrengthsandweaknessesLGEaspirationsforfuturegrowthHighlevelrecommendationonproductmixBrandpositioningstatusandrecommendationsChannelmixdiagnosisandhighlevelchannelprioritizationDetailedbreakdowncomparisononcosts,COGSinparticularAnalysisonoverallcompetitiveenvironmentDetailedinformationoncompetitorperformanceincludingsales,branding,pricing,channelmixandincentivesKeycompetitors’COGSanalysisStrengthsandweaknessesofeachcompetitorgroupandtheimplicationsDetailedanalysisonconsumerpurchasingpattern1010326SH_120703_085v5iTODAY'sDISCUSSIONTheMicrowaveovenmarketinChinawillcontinueitsstronggrowthandshouldreach7.5millionunitsin2003.PrimaryregionswillbeCentralChina,followedbySouthandSouthwestChina.Otherregionsshoulddevelopasincomegrows.Computergrillandmechanicalgrillshouldfurtherincreasetheirshareaspricesdecline.

Fourcustomersegmentsarefoundfrommarketresearch:Premiumbuyers,basicbrandbuyers,rationaltechnophile,andgenericbuyers.Allsegments,exceptpremiumbuyers,arehighlyprice-sensitive,thusskewingmarketdemandtowardslow-endproducts.Atthesametime,reliableperformance,easeofuse,andgoodafter-serviceareimportantacrosssegments.ThecompetitioninChinaisalreadyintenseandwillcontinuetoincrease,asGalanzandMideahavehugeambitionsinthemarket.Inaddition,thesevereovercapacity(about45%)willcontinuetoforcepricesdownwardsthusthreateningprofitabilityforallbutthelowestcostplayers.LGhasbuiltasuccessfulplatformforgrowth,becoming#2inChina,althoughfarbehindGalanz,byfocusingonpremiumproductsandintheBeijingarea.Facedwiththeissueoffurthergrowthandimprovingprofitability,LGnowneedstochoosebetweenahighgrowthstrategy,withtheobjectiveofbecomingtheleadingplayerandtoreachbreakevenin2005,ortoremainapremiumnicheplayerfortheforeseeablefuture.Toachievetheaspirationofbecomingaprofitable#1PlayerinChina,LGneedstolaunch5strategicinitiatives:(1)launchathreestepregionalexpansion,firstfromBeijingtoWuhan,(2)introduceentryproductstocoverallpricepointswhilecontinuingtointroducehighendproductstocreatemargins,(3)improvechannelcoveragebyincreasingthedistributornetworkandthesalesforceresources,(4)increasesignificantlyadvertisingspendingwhileoptimizingmediamix,(5)reduceaggressivelycostbyleveragingeconomiesofscale.2010326SH_120703_085v5iTODAY'sDISCUSSIONTheMicrowaveovenmarketinChinawillcontinueitsstronggrowthandshouldreach7.5millionunitsin2003.PrimaryregionswillbecentralChina,followedbySouthandSouthwestChina.Otherregionsshoulddevelopasincomegrows.Computergrillandmechanicalgrillshouldfurtherincreasetheirshareaspricesdecline.

Fourcustomersegmentsarefoundfrommarketresearch:Premiumbuyers,basicbrandbuyers,rationaltechnophile,andgenericbuyers.Allsegments,exceptpremiumbuyers,arehighlyprice-sensitive,thusskewingmarketdemandtowardslow-endproducts.Atthesametime,reliableperformance,easeofuse,andgoodafter-serviceareimportantacrosssegments.ThecompetitioninChinaisalreadyintenseandwillcontinuetoincrease,asGalanzandMideahavehugeambitionsinthemarket.Inaddition,thesevereovercapacity(about45%)willcontinuetoforcepricesdownwardsthusthreateningprofitabilityforallbutthelowestcostplayers.LGhasbuiltasuccessfulplatformforgrowth,becoming#2inChina,althoughfarbehindGalanz,byfocusingonpremiumproductsandintheBeijingarea.Facedwiththeissueoffurthergrowthandimprovingprofitability,LGnowneedstochoosebetweenahighgrowthstrategy,withtheobjectiveofbecomingtheleadingplayerandtoreachbreakevenin2005,ortoremainapremiumnicheplayerfortheforeseeablefuture.Toachievetheaspirationofbecomingaprofitable#1PlayerinChina,LGneedstolaunch5strategicinitiatives:(1)launchathreestepregionalexpansion,firstfromBeijingtoWuhan,(2)introduceentryproductstocoverallpricepointswhilecontinuingtointroducehighendproductstocreatemargins,(3)improvechannelcoveragebyincreasingthedistributornetworkandthesalesforceresources,(4)increasesignificantlyadvertisingspendingwhileoptimizingmediamix,(5)reduceaggressivelycostbyleveragingeconomiesofscale.3010326SH_120703_085v5iTHEMWOMARKETINCHINAHASGROWNTO4.4MILLIONSETS1997-2000ChinaMWOretailsalesvolumeThousandsets1997199819992000CAGR=32%source: LightIndustryInformationCenter,componentmanufacturers,Galanz,LG,teamanalysis,SICTeamestimationbasedoncomponentpurchasesminusinventoryandexportvolumeforGalanzMWOmanagementestimationbasedonsalesvolumeofGalanz’20largestdistributors3,8004010326SH_120703_085v5iPENETRATIONISDRIVENBYINCOMEINCREASE2000penetrationratebyregionRMB,percentPenetrationratePercent

AnnualdisposableincomeRMB

1991-1999SHpenetrationrateRMB,percentPenetrationratePercent

AnnualdisposableincomeRMB

ShanghaiBeijingGuangdongChongqing

Source: ChinaStatisticYearbook5010326SH_120703_085v5iBASEDONTHEEXPECTEDINCOMEGROWTH,18%ANNUAL

GROWTHRATEISEXPECTEDFORTOTALCHINA

MICROWAVEOVENMARKETINTHENEXT5YEARSKeyassumptionsIncreaseofpenetrationrateinurbanareasfrom14%in2000to30%in2005Increaseofurbanhouseholdnumbersfrom99millionin2000to114millionin2005TotalChinamicrowaveovenmarketforecastThousandunitsSource: Teamanalysis20002001E2002E2003E2004E2005ECAGR=

18%Lowestimate=3,800Lowestimate=8,4646010326SH_120703_085v5iHUABEI(NORTHERNCHINA)REGIONHASBEENTHE

LARGESTMARKETFORMWOINCHINA * EstimatedbyLGsalesbranchesSource: SICTotalChinasalesvolume–YYSC

Thousandsets,percentHuaBeiandHuaDongstillaccountformorethan60%ofthewholemarketHowever,salesinXi-Nan,DongBei,andHuaChunghasgrownevenmorerapidly100%=6528477601,032BeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenyang19971998199920002000totalChinasalesrevenue–YYSCRMBthousands,percent762,591779,450667,818753,6791997199819992000ChengduWuhan3.047.734.6%29.513.09.54.035.430.511.212.3BeijingShanghaiShenyangWuhanChengduGuangzhou3.0100%=9.09.012.011.028.031.01,5842000plusselectedhypermarkets*7010326SH_120703_085v5iBASEDONTHEINCOMEDEVELOPMENT,DEMANDFORECASTANALYSISSHOWEDTHATCENTRALANDSOUTHERN

REGIONWILLHAVETHEHIGHESTGROWTHChinatotalurbanhouseholdnumberincreaseby30%perannumfrom

2001-2005DisposableincomepercapitaintotalChinaurbanareasincreaseby6%perannumfrom

2001-2005MarketsizeforecastbyregionThousandsets;percent100%=19972005E2000CAGR

PercentKeyassumptions

Source: Teamanalysis,ChinaStatisticYearbookBeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenyangWuhanChengdu1,9309,8004,40018171223193420HIGHESTIMATE8010326SH_120703_085v5iMarketsizeofeachregionThousandsetsBEIJING,SHANGHAIANDWUHANWILLBETHELARGEST

MARKETSIN20054651,02820002005Chengduregion4531,98320002005Wuhanregion23656120002005Shenyangregion1,0552,23320002005Beijingregion7541,85320002005Guangzhouregion1,3992hanghairegionHIGHESTIMATE9010326SH_120703_085v5iALTHOUGHREGIONSOTHERTHANBEIJINGONLYACCOUNT

FORSMALLSHARECURRENTLY,TREMENDOUSGROWTH

ANDHEALTHIERMARGINAREEXPECTEDTHERE2001-2005growthpotential

CAGRProfitabilityLG2000grossmarginpercentMarketsizetodayShanghaiBeijingGuang-zhouChengduShenyangWuhanHIGHESTIMATE

Source: LG,teamanalysis10010326SH_120703_085v5iSALESFROMSINGLEFUNCTIONPRODUCTSHASSHIFTEDTOWARDSMECHANICALGRILLPRODUCTS * EstimatedbyLGsalesbranches Source: SICTotalChinasales–YYSC

Thousandsets,percent100%=6338477751,032SensorComputergrillMechanicalgrillSingle1997199819992000Salesrevenue–YYSCRMBthousands,percent100%=629,680728,891592,880707,582SensorComputergrillMechanicalgrillSinglefunction199719981999200022.01,58431.047.02000plusselectedhypermarkets*11010326SH_120703_085v5iRECENTBUYERSTENDTOBUYMOREMECHANICALGRILL

PRODUCTSTHANBEFORETypeofMWOboughtPercentSinglefunctionMechanicalgrillComputergrillTemperature**controlDon'tknowAllownersRecentbuyers* * Thosewhopurchasedinpast12months ** PartissubsetofcomputergrillSource: AMIcustomersurvey12010326SH_120703_085v5iPRODUCTTYPEMIGRATIONRELATESMORETOTHE

PRICEDROP1997-2000productevolutionRMBPercentSalesofmechanicalgrillproductshasincreasedalotduetothepricedrop.ComputergrillproductsareexpectedtogrowquicklyforthesamereasoninnearfuturePriceofmechanicalgrillproductinYYSCPriceofsinglefunctionproducts

inYYSCPercentofmechanicalgrilltosinglefunctionproductsinYYSC

Source: SIC13010326SH_120703_085v5iDEMANDFORECASTANALYSISSHOWEDTHATCOMPUTER

GRILLPRODUCTSWILLHAVETHEHIGHESTGROWTHRATE

FORTHENEXTFIVEYEARSPriceofcomputergrillproductswillgodowntoRMB540-560in2005PriceofmechanicalgrillwillgodowntoRMB470-490in2005PriceofsinglefunctionwillgodowntoRMB360-380in2005MarketsizeforecastbyproducttypeThousandsets100%=199720002005E2004E2003E2002E2001EKeyassumptionsCAGRPercentComputergrillMechani-calgrillSinglefunction1,9004,4009,8008,6007,5006,4005,40018201914

Source: Teamanalysis,ChinaStatisticYearbookHIGHESTIMATE14010326SH_120703_085v5iWITHTHEOVERALLPRICESDROP,MECHANICALGRILL

PRODUCTSAREGOINGTOGAINMOREIMPORTANCE

OVERTIME2001-2005growthpotentialCAGRProfitabilityLGmarginalprofitin

percentofsalesMarketsizetodaySinglefunctionMechanicalgrillComputergrillHIGHESTIMATEMarketsizein2005Singlefunctionproductshavelittleroomforfurtherpricereduction,withmaterialcostreducedby5%p.a.,thushavingimprovingprofitability15010326SH_120703_085v5iTODAY'sDISCUSSIONTheMicrowaveovenmarketinChinawillcontinueitsstronggrowthandshouldreach7.5millionunitsin2003.PrimaryregionswillbeCentralChina,followedbySouthandSouthwestChina.Otherregionsshoulddevelopasincomegrows.Computergrillandmechanicalgrillshouldfurtherincreasetheirshareaspricesdecline.

Fourcustomersegmentsarefoundfrommarketresearch:Premiumbuyers,basicbrandbuyers,rationaltechnophile,andgenericbuyers.Allsegments,exceptpremiumbuyers,

arehighlyprice-sensitive,thusskewingmarketdemandtowardslow-endproducts.Atthesametime,reliableperformance,easeofuse,andgoodafter-serviceareimportantacrosssegments.ThecompetitioninChinaisalreadyintenseandwillcontinuetoincrease,asGalanzandMideahavehugeambitionsinthemarket.Inaddition,thesevereovercapacity(about45%)willcontinuetoforcepricesdownwardsthusthreateningprofitabilityforallbutthelowestcostplayers.LGhasbuiltasuccessfulplatformforgrowth,becoming#2inChina,althoughfarbehindGalanz,byfocusingonpremiumproductsandintheBeijingarea.Facedwiththeissueoffurthergrowthandimprovingprofitability,LGnowneedstochoosebetweenahighgrowthstrategy,withtheobjectiveofbecomingtheleadingplayerandtoreachbreakevenin2005,ortoremainapremiumnicheplayerfortheforeseeablefuture.Toachievetheaspirationofbecomingaprofitable#1PlayerinChina,LGneedstolaunch5strategicinitiatives:(1)launchathreestepregionalexpansion,firstfromBeijingtoWuhan,(2)introduceentryproductstocoverallpricepointswhilecontinuingtointroducehighendproductstocreatemargins,(3)improvechannelcoveragebyincreasingthedistributornetworkandthesalesforceresources,(4)increasesignificantlyadvertisingspendingwhileoptimizingmediamix,(5)reduceaggressivelycostbyleveragingeconomiesofscale.16010326SH_120703_085v5iMICROWAVECONSUMERSURVEYDESIGNGeographycoverageUrbanareaofBeijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Tianjin,Shenyang,Chengdu,WuhanSamplesizeTotal875samplesinurbanareawhoaredecisionmakersinmicrowaveIneachlocationInBeijing,Shanghai,Tianjin:100MWOowners,50MWOpotentialbuyers(innext12months)eachInGuangzhou,Shenyang,Chengdu,Wuhan:60MWOowners,40MWOpotentialbuyers(innext12months)eachMethodologyDoor-to-doorrandomsamplingFace-to-faceinterviewFieldperiodMarch9-16,2001Detailedexplanation17010326SH_120703_085v5iFOURDISTINCTIVECUSTOMERSEGMENTSAREDERIVEDFROM

THEIRRESPECTIVEKEYBUYINGFACTORS100%=875microwaveovenownerspluspotentialbuyersPricesensitiveconsumerstakeupmorethanhalfofthemarketPremiumbuyersMostcareofperformance,designandqualityLeastpricesensitiveandhashighestincidenceofusingpremiumbrands,e.g.,Nationalandsophisticatedmodels,e.g.,computergrill1BasicbrandbuyersLookingforreliablebrandforqualityassurance2RationaltechnophilesKnowledgeablebuyerswhounderstandwhattheyneedfromamicrowaveovenCarelessaboutbrand,morepricesensitive,requiringalotofproductinformationtomakethepurchasedecision3GenericbuyersBuyerswhoarenervoustohandlethemicrowaveovenLookforsimplemachineandneedgoodafter-salessupport4

Source: AMIcustomersurvey18010326SH_120703_085v5iWHI三LE三PRI三CE三SEN三SIT三IVI三TY三DIF三FER三SA三CRO三SS三SEG三MEN三TS,三R三ELI三ABL三EP三ERO三RMA三CE,三EA三SE三OF三USE三,A三ND三GOO三D三AFT三ER-三SAL三ES三SER三VIC三EA三RE三KEY三FO三RE三ACH三SE三GME三NTRan三kin三go三fK三BFsRel三iab三le三per三for三man三ceLow三pr三iceEas三eo三fu三seGoo三da三fte三r-s三ale三ss三erv三iceFam三ous三br三andLot三so三ff三eat三ure三sNic三ea三ppe三ara三nceAdv三anc三ed三tec三hno三log三yWor三do三fm三out三hPro三duc三tp三rom三oti三onPre三miu三mb三uye三rsBas三ic三bra三nd三buy三ersRat三ion三al三tec三hno三phi三lesGen三eri三cb三uye三rsTop三5三KBF三sSou三rce三:三AMI三cu三sto三mer三su三rve三yTot三al三urb三an19010三326三SH_三120三703三_08三5v5三iCUS三TOM三ER三DEM三AND三IS三SK三EWE三DT三OWA三RDS三LO三W-E三ND三PRO三DUC三TS三EXC三EPT三FO三RP三REM三IUM三BU三YER三SMWO三bo三ugh三tb三yc三urr三ent三ow三ner三sPro三duc三tt三ypeSin三gle三fu三nct三ionTot三al三urb三anPre三miu三m三buy三erBas三ic三bra三ndRat三ion三al三te三chn三oph三ile三sGen三eri三c三buy三erMec三han三ica三lg三ril三lCom三put三er三gri三llTem三per三atu三re三con三tro三l*Don三't三kno三w* 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