麦肯锡-睁大眼睛拥抱AI一代（英）-2024-WN8

EmbracegenAIwitheyeswideopenDespitesomeveryrealrisks,formerFortune

CEOAlanMurrayarguesthatthestunningadvancesmadepossiblebygenerativeAIoutweighthepotentialdownsides.July2024AlthoughtherelentlessriseofgenerativeAI(genAI)hasmanyfearingforthelossoftheirlivelihoodstomachines,itmayactuallyendupbenefitingmanagementandworkersalike.Ironically,thismostadvancedoftechnologiesdoesn’trequiretechnicalskillstouse,andinsteadputsapremiumonveryhumanqualitiessuchasexperience,judgment,andwisdom.InthisepisodeoftheAttheEdgepodcast,formerFortuneCEOandeditorAlanMurrayspeakswithMcKinsey’sLareinaYeeꢀaboutwhygenAImarksaturningpointinhumanhistory,onethatmustbecarefullymanagedforthegoodofbusinessandsociety.AlanMurray:Thisisembarrassingformetoadmit,butyoucouldsitandhaveaconversationwithit.Iwasjustplayingaroundwithitintheearlydaysandasked,“Hey,whatdoyouthinkofFortuneMedia?”Iwouldn’tsayitcameupwithnecessarilybrilliantinsights,butitgetsyouthinkingaboutthethingsyoushouldbethinkingabout.LareinaYee:Overthecourseoftheyear,thetechnology’schangedalot.Areyoufindingthatyou’reusingitindifferentwaysnow?AlanMurray:Themainthingthathaschangedfromthoseveryearlydaysisthedata—remember,ChatGPTwasinitiallytrainedonasetofdatathatwastwoyearsoldbythetimeofitslaunch.ForAneditedtranscriptofthediscussionfollows.Formoreconversationsoncutting-edgetechnology,followtheseriesonyourpreferredpodcastplatform.somebodyinthenewsbusiness,that’saprettyseriouslimitation.IuseGeminialot,andIlikethefactthatittiesintotheGooglesearchengineifI2023:TheyeargenAIblewmindswantthecitations.IfI’mlookingfornewsorthelatestinformation,Ifindit’snowmuchmoreusefulatthatsortofthing.Butthatisnottodownplaythedownsides,thebiggestofwhichisthetendencytohallucinate.LareinaYee:Alan,thankyousomuchforjoining.InFortune’sCEODaily,youwroteabouttheimportanceofgenerativeAIandstated,“Historywillremember2023asayearofAI.”Whatdidyouseeinthoseearlydays?Whatgotyoumoreexcitedaboutthistechnologicalchangecomparedtoothers?FromconsumerstotheenterpriseinrecordtimeAlanMurray:Lareina,thankyouforhavingmeon.WeallknewAIhadbeenaroundforalongtimebeforethat,butwhatblewmymindwas,“Waitaminute.Thesethingscannowcreateletters,plans,poems,literature,andpictures.”ThatwasjustawholenewwayofthinkingaboutthepowerofAI.AndIclearlywasn’talone.ItexplodedtheLareinaYee:Beforewegetintothehallucinations,wesawthatitveryquicklymovedfromapersonaltoacorporateexperienceandbecameatoppriorityforboardsandCEOs.Tellusaboutthat.AlanMurray:Inmyexperience,thishasneverhappenedbefore.Theideausedtobetogettheconsumerhooked,andthentheBYOBmovementimaginationsofmillionsandmillionsofpeople.LareinaYee:Inthoseearlydays,justamonthafterwouldgetitintotheenterprise.SoittookalongChatGPTwasreleased,howdidyoustartusingthetimetomovefromconsumeradoptionintothetechnology?Whatfascinatedyoupersonally?enterprise.GenerativeAItooklessthantwomonths.We’dneverseenanythingmoveintotheenterprisethatquickly.EmbracegenAIwitheyeswideopen2LareinaYee:Whydoyouthinkthatis?Numberfourisbias.CanwebesurethattherearenotbiasesbakedintothedatathemodelwasAlanMurray:BecauseitmovedfromtheCTO[chieftrainedonthatwillcontinuetobedisplayedgoingtechnologyofficer]andtheCIO[chiefinformationofficer]totheCEO.AndbecauseeveryCEOcoulddowhatIdidandsay,“Waitaminute.Icanusethis,andit’sgivingmeinterestingresults.Myimaginationisrunningwild,thinkingofwaysIcouldusethistechnologyinsidemycompany.”forward?Howdowemakeuseofthisincrediblypowerfultechnology,protectourdata,makesurewe’renotexposingourselvestointellectualpropertyrisk,andmakesureit’saccurate?Theproblemisthatpeoplearegoingtogetlazyandjustletitgo.They’renotgoingtodouble-checkeverything.What’sthepointofhavingthetechnologyifyoufeelyouhavetodouble-checkeverypartofit?SoIstillthinktherearealotofissuesdrivingcautionwithinorganizationsthathavetobesortedout.ThefourhorsemenofgenAIriskLareinaYee:Iagreewithyou.It’ssoeasytouse.Youdon’tneedanyspecialtraining.Youdon’tneedtobeadatascientist.Youcanbeanyone,speakanylanguage,anduseit.Butwhenwelookatcompanies,Iwouldsaythatalotofpeoplearestillinpilots.Twostepsforward,onestepbackLareinaYee:Wehaveaconundrum.Ontheonehand,we’vegotgreatexcitement,andtheeasyabilitytounderstandthetechnology,whichismovingveryfast.Butwe’rehesitatingbecauseit’snotready.SohowdoyouthinkCEOsaremanagingthroughthosetwothings?AlanMurray:I’mseeingthesamething—andthefourhorsemenofriskthatcomesalongwithit.First,thereisadatarisk,afearof,“Dowehaveproprietarydatathatsomeoneisgoingtoleakoutthroughthismodelandmakeaccessibletothebroaderworld?”AlanMurray:Notechnologyadoptionproceedsinastraightline.Thereisalwaysalittlebitofsteppingback,takingstock,andfiguringouthowyoudealwiththeproblems.Thatincludesputtingtheprocessesinplacetoprotectcompanydata,checkingtheintellectualproperty,andusingtechnologieslikeretrieval-augmentedgeneration[RAG]toreducetheriskofhallucinations.Thenthere’stheintellectualpropertyriskthathascompaniesaskingthemselves,“Istheresomeintellectualpropertysomewhereinthismodelthat’sgoingtocausesomeonetocomeafterussomedayandclaimthatwebuiltpartofourbusinessontheirpropertyanddemandareturn?”Andthenthere’sthebiggestrisk,theoneI’vealreadymentioned:hallucinations.It’ssimplynotrelatable.Iaskedittowritemybiography,anditcitedmeastheauthorofabookthatInotonlydidn’twritebutthatdoesn’texist.Thatkindofstuffisalittlebitscary.Butthatkindofthingtakestime,anditslowstheprocessdownalittlebit.Ithinkwe’reinoneofthoseperiodsof,let’sjusttakeapause,takeabreath,andthenfigureouthowwecangoforward.EmbracegenAIwitheyeswideopen3Early-adopterusecasesMass-layofffearsmisplacedLareinaYee:GivenyourexperiencewithFortune’sBrainstormAIconferencesandspendingsomuchtimewithgloballeaders,whataresomeoftheusecasesthatyoudothinkarereadynow,despitetherisksandconcerns?LareinaYee:Whenwe’velookedatotherautomationtechnologies,perhapsnotasprofoundasthisone,thetransitionofjobshasbeenaprettyseriousmissinsomecases,orjustsomethingthatwe’vebeen—tobegenerous—clumsyabout.Howdowethinkaboutreskilling,ifthat’seventheAlanMurray:I’veheardsomeprettyamazingstoriesrightterm?ofhowit’sbeingusedbymarketingoperationstocreateandrecraftcompellingmessagesorevenpersonalizemessagesforparticularaudiences.Soalotofpeopleinthemarketingareawereearlyadopters.Itwasinstantlyembracedbycodersanddeveloperstoo,becausealotofcodegetswrittenoverandoverandoveragain.Sonowyoucanjustcalluponyourcopilot.AlanMurray:Ithinkweknowfromhistorythatthenotionthateverybody’sjobisgoingtobechallengedandthereforewe’regoingtohavemassiveunemploymentistobequestioned.Firstofall,youlookatthenumbers.Westillhaveatalentshortage.Andthedemographicsaremakingthetalentshortageevenworse.Idon’tthinkthat’sgoingtochange.Peoplewereworryingforyearsabouthowthemechanizationofagriculturewouldputpeopleoutofwork.It’searlydays,soIcouldbewrongLareinaYee:It’ssomethingthathappensoveradecade,ortwodecades.We’velookedatitclosely,andthere’sabouta$4.4trillionvalueinproductivity.

aboutthis.Buttheinterestingthingaboutthistechnologyisthatit’snothighlytechnical.AlanMurray:That’shuge.WhatyouneedisjudgmentandmaybesomeLareinaYee:Itishuge.Andinaworldwherewe’realllookingforgrowth,youcan’taffordtoignorethissectoralknowledgetobeabletouseitwell.Itcallsformuchmorehumanskills.Maybewe’llgobacktechnology.Butifwe’reattheverybeginning,andiftoliberalartsdegrees.Andremember,itwasn’tweseesuchenormouspotential,isitasteptoofarthatlongagothatBusinessweek

ranacoverstorytosaythatthisistheFourthIndustrialRevolution,ordeclaringthateverybodyneedstolearnhowsortofthenextprintingpresseventforhumanity?Istocode.thathyperbole,Alan?Butnow,thecode’swritingitself,thankyouveryAlanMurray:Idon’tthinkitis.Whenyouthinkaboutmuch.Sowedon’tneedeveryonelearninghowtohowpervasivethistechnologymaybetenyearsfromnow,andhowmuchofourliveswearegoingtospendchattingwithgenerativealgorithms,itcanblowyourmind.code.Butwedoneedpeoplewithexperience,judgment,andwisdom,sotheycanasktherightquestions,preparetherightprompts,andknowwhenthealgorithmsarespewingoutnonsense.EmbracegenAIwitheyeswideopen4ThereissomeearlyresearchthatI’msureyou’reawareof,Lareina,thatsays—unlikethepasttwodecades—thistechnologycouldactuallyreduceinequalityamongworkersratherthanincreaseit,becauseyouoftenseethebiggestproductivitygainsamonglessskilledandqualifiedworkers.Ithinkthat’sprettyinteresting.inastarkerway.There’sbeenalotwrittenbythepressaboutthedeathoftheEnglishmajor.I’mpersonallyrootingforEnglishmajors.SoI’mcurious,wouldyoustudysomethingdifferent,givenwhatyouknownow?AlanMurray:IwasanEnglishmajor.LareinaYee:Sothereyougo.Giventhedemographicchallengesthatmanycountries,includingtheUS,face,theabilityofgenerativeAItoharnessthewisdomandexperienceofolderworkersinaproductivewayisprettyexciting.Wecouldbebringingalotofpeoplebackintotheworkforcetofillhigh-endjobs,wheretheirdecadesofexperienceandknowledgeandwisdomareatapremium.AlanMurray:You’recallingmeout.Ididstudyeconomicslateron.I’vealwayswishedIhadstudiedmorehistorywithEnglish.Idon’tregretnottakingmoretechnicalcourses.Ithinkalotofschoolshave,overthecourseofthepastdecade,movedawayfromliberalartsandtowardcodingandcomputerscience.That’sbeenfine,andmaybeitwasrightforthetimes,butweneedtorethinkthat.RethinkingthevalueofaliberalartseducationWhatpeoplearereallygoingtoneedinthefuturearetwothings.Oneisinterpersonalskills.Yes,it’sgreatthatthetechnologycandoallthesethings,butgettingpeoplealignedaroundhowtousethetechnologyandwhatthegoalisreliesonthosefundamentalskillsofhumanorganizationandleadership.You’vegottogetthoseskillsright,soIwoulddefinitelyputahighpremiumonthem.LareinaYee:Alan,theKhanmigoAItutorandteachingassistantisverymuchwhatyoudescribedatthestartofthisconversation.Yourfirstmonthsplayingwiththetechnologywereinconversation.Andthat’swhatitis,aconversation,butit’snotwithanexecutiveorCEO.Instead,it’swithahighschoolerorcollegestudent.SoIthinkifweweretopushthisalittlebitfurther,youcouldcompletelyreimagineeducation.Thesecondthingiswisdomandknowledge.Howdoyouteachwisdom?Idon’tknow.ButIthinkEnglishisn’tabadwayofdoingit.History’snotabadwayofdoingiteither.AlanMurray:Totally.GenerativeAIcreatesaninteractivemeansoflearning,whichweallknowismuchmoreeffective.It’slikeKhanmigo:youtalktoit.Itgivesyouananswer.Youaskitquestions.Itresponds.Youcangobackandforthandexchangeideas.It’sjustmuchmoreeffectiveasalearningtoolthanmostofwhat’souttheretoday.TheimportanceofadaptingtothepaceoftechnologicalchangeLareinaYee:Alan,youcounselandconvenesomanygloballeaders.Howdoyouthinkitchangeshowthepersonwiththecornerofficethinksaboutlearningandeducation?LareinaYee:Alan,ifyoucouldrewindandgobacktoschool,wouldyoustudydifferentthings?Youbroughtthisupacoupleminutesago,andI’llputitEmbracegenAIwitheyeswideopen5AlanMurray:Theneedthereisintense.AndgenerativeAIisatechnologythatmostoftheFortune500CEOs—ifnotallofthem—hadneverheardofinNovember2022.ByJanuary2023,theirboardsweretellingthemitwasgoingtodisruptandremakethewholecompany.Inthe1970s,youfindthatmorethan80percentofthevaluecamefromphysicalstuff.Doyouhaveaplant?Doyouhaveequipment?It’skindofunderstandablethattherewassuchabigemphasisonshareholdervalue50yearsago,becausetheshareholdersprovidedthemoneyyouneededtobuythephysicalstuff,whichinturncreatedthevalue.I’vespentalotoftimemoderatingconversationsbetweenexecutivesontechnologyissues,andI’venoticedaveryclearpatternwhendiscussingthisnewtechnologythat’sgoingtotransformtheenterprise.Within15to25minutes,theconversationhaschangedandwe’renottalkingabouttechnologyanymore—we’retalkingaboutpeople.IfyoudothesameexercisetodaywiththebalancesheetsofFortune500companies,morethan85percentofthevaluecomesfromintangibles.It’snotphysicalstuff.It’sintellectualproperty.It’sthebrandvaluewithcustomers.It’sallthethingsthataremuchlesstiedtophysicalstuffandmuchmoretiedtohumanbeings.Thattherealchallengeisnot,“Howdoyougetthetechnologytodowhatyouwantittodo?”

Therealchallengeis,“How

doyougetpeopleandhuman-basedorganizationstoadapttothepaceoftechnologicalchange?”

Ithinkthat’sanareathatneedsmoreattention.That’saprofoundchangethat’sbeendrivenbytechnology.Anditmeansthatyouhavetomanagethesecompaniesinaverydifferentway,becausethegoalisnot,“How

doIgetenoughmoneytobuyallthestuff?”

Thegoalis,“How

doImotivate,engage,attract,andretainthebesttalent?”

Becausethat’swherethevaluecomesfrom.Technology-drivenstakeholdercapitalismAlotofwhat’shappeninginso-calledstakeholdercapitalism,whereyou’repayingmoreattentiontotheplanet,tothepeopleyouemploy,andsocietalinequality,isreallyarecognitionthatthe21st-centurycorporationismuchmorehumanthanthe20th-centurycorporation.Soyouhavetothinkdifferentlyaboutit.LareinaYee:Somethingyou’vewrittenalotaboutaswellisstakeholdercapitalism.HowdoyouthinkaboutgenerativeAIinastakeholdercapitalismrubric?AlanMurray:Ithinkthetwotrends,thetechnologyrevolutionandthemovementtowardstakeholdercapitalism,areverycloselyrelated.TherewasareallyinterestingstudydoneaboutfiveyearsagothatcomparedthebalancesheetsoftheFortune500companies50yearsagowiththosetoday,anditasked:Whereisthevaluecomingfromaccordingtothesebalancesheets?Also,thepaceofchangehasbecomesofastthatthe20th-centurywayofmanagingdoesn’tworkanymore.TheCEO’sjobandtheC-suite’sjobhavebecomemuchlessabouttellingpeoplewhattodoandmuchmoreaboutinspiringthem,engagingthem,givingthemaclearpurpose,givingthemaEmbracegenAIwitheyeswideopen6Ontheotherhand,hepointedtonucleararmscontrolandwhatithasaccomplishedoverthecourseofthepast75yearstoreducetheriskofnuclearwar.Andtheresultsareprettystunning.SoIthinkheraisesaninterestingquestion,whichis,“IstherealessontherethattheworldcanlearnfromtomitigatesomeofthenegativeNorthStar,andgivingthemtheguardrailstheyneedtooperate.Allofthatrequiresyoutodealmuchmorewithpeopleandwiththeirwholeselves,withalloftheirhopes,dreams,andaspirations.LareinaYee:Ilovetheframethatit’snotaboutthetechnology;it’saboutthepeople.Thetechnologyisinserviceofwhat?It’stoenhancehumanityatitssortofhighestaspiration.SoIthinkthattherearethingsthatonlyhumanscando,thatthere’ssomepowerininteractinghumantohuman.Butthepaceofthetechnology—let’sthinkaboutsomeoftheseandreallytrytoshowempathy.That’sahumanemotion.consequencesoftechnology?”Andbytheway,Lareina,IshouldsayI’vebeenverypositiveandupbeatinthisconversation,becauseIampositiveandupbeatgenerallyaboutthetechnology.ButIdothinkaboutthedangerofgenerativeAIpollutingtheinformationecosystem,particularlyaroundpoliticsandelections,whicharealreadypollutedenough.Somepeoplesay,“Gee,itcouldn’tgetanyworse.”Butitcouldgetworse.TheabilityofgenerativeAItoolstoproliferateandpersonalizepoliticalmessagesthatcouldhaverealeffectonelectoraloutcomesisveryscary.AlanMurray:Butthey’renotpeople.Humanbeingsaresocialanimals.Whenyou’rewithagroupofpeoplewhoyouadmireortrust,there’salotgoingontherebesidesjusttheexchangeofwords.Therearethingsgoingonthatarechemical.Andmorebroadly,thedangerthatgenerativeAIanddeepfakescouldfurtherunderminetrustininstitutions—whichhasalreadybeendeeplyunderminedbyvariousdevelopmentsoverthepast20years—scaresmealot.DrawinglessonsfromthesuccessofnucleararmscontrolLareinaYee:AswesitattheprecipiceoftheFourthIndustrialRevolution,what’saheadofus,andwhatlessonsdoyouthinkwecouldtakefromhistoryintothisnextgeneration?BusinessleadershaveanimportantroletoplayAlanMurray:Ithinkwecouldstartbytakingcomfortthatthisisnotgoingtoeliminateallhumanactivities.There’sstillgoingtobeplentyofstuffthathumanbeingswillneedtodotomakesocietywork.SoIdon’tworryaboutmassivejoblessness.LareinaYee:Alan,oneofthemostremarkablethingsaboutjournalistsistheabilitytoasktherightquestions.Asyouthinkaboutgovernmentleaders,whatarethetwoorthreemostimportantquestionsforthemtoconsiderintheageofAI?Idoworryaboutpeoplebeingabletoadaptquicklyenoughtomakeuseofthistechnology.IreadMustafaSuleyman’sbook,TheComingWave:Technology,Power,andthe21stCentury’sGreatestDilemma,andIthinkit’sverygood.Ontheonehand,hetalkedaboutthekindofhopelessnessofcontainingorcontrollingthesebigwavesoftechnology.AlanMurray:Questiononeis:Howdowecreateasanerpoliticalsystemsopeopleofgoodwillofvariouspoliticalpersuasionscanhaveareasonableconversationabouttheveryrealproblemsthatfacetheworld?Thisisaninstancewheretechnologyisfeedingtheproblem.EmbracegenAIwitheyeswideopen7constructiverolecompaniescanplayinmitigatingpoliticaldysfunctionaswell?Ifyouthinkaboutwhatthistechnologyenables,youcanimagineacampaignusingincrediblysophisticatedtargetingtechnologybasedonmassivepopulationdata.Theyknowwhatyourhot-buttonissuesareandwhatitwouldtaketopersuadeyoutovoteonewayoranother.LareinaYee:Attheveryleast,beingavoiceatthetable.Ithinkthat’spartofthechallengeofanexpandedlevelofresponsibility.Whetheryoufaceitornotasatrustedinstitutionandleadership,it’saquestionofmorethanprofitability.LareinaYee:Thatisthebiggestthreat.Takingitdowntotheeverydayperson,itseemstome,actuallyraisesthebarintermsofourabilitytobecriticalconsumersofinformation.So,Alan,IdidalittlebitofresearchandlearnedyouwereaLuceScholar,somethingthatweshare.YouspentyouryearworkingfortheJapanEconomicJournalinTokyo.IfyouwereaLuceScholarin2024,howwouldyouspendyouryearnow?Wherewouldyougo?Whatwouldyoudo?AlanMurray:Wehavetobecriticalconsumersofinformation.So,whataresomecommonsenserulesthatcanhelpmitigatetherisk?Maybeweneedtothinkaboutrequiringwate