牛津经济研究院-促进北美石墨的增长-北美石墨联盟报告（英）

ENABLINGNORTH

AMERICANGRAPHITEGROWTH

AREPORTFORTHE

NORTHAMERICANGRAPHITEALLIANCE

FEBRUARY2024

ABOUTOXFORDECONOMICS

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TABLEOFCONTENTS

Executivesummary 4

1.Introduction 6

2.Theglobalgraphitemarket 7

2.1Graphitedemand 7

2.2Graphitesupply 8

2.3Anodematerial 11

3.Rationalesfortradeaction 16

3.1Infantindustryprotection 17

3.2Unfairtradepractices 19

3.3Strategicprotection 24

4.GraphiteandSection301Tariffs 28

4.1Section301tariffsin2018 28

4.2Chineseexportrestrictionsongraphite 29

4.3ArgumentsforrenewedSection301tariffsonChinesegraphite 29

5.Conclusion 31

4

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

THEGLOBALGRAPHITEMARKET

Globaldemandforgraphitehasexpanded52%inthelastfiveyearsandisexpectedtogrowanother70%overthenextfiveyears.Thisdemandgrowthhaslargelybeendrivenbyincreaseddemandforlithium-ionbatteries(LiBs),drivenbyelectricvehicleproduction.Demandforanodematerial—the

formofgraphiteusedinLiBs—isprojectedtoalmosttripleinthenextfiveyears.

Chinacurrentlydominatestheglobalgraphitemarket,and,barringconcertedaction,itwillcontinue

todoso.AccordingtoforecastsbyBenchmarkMineralIntelligence,Chinasupplied72%ofall

graphitein2023andisprojectedtosupply65%ofallgraphitein2028,.Chinaaccountsforaneven

largershareofthemarketforthehigh-puritygraphiteanodematerialusedinbatteries.In2023,Chinacontrolled92%ofthismarket,anditisforecasttoaccountfor86%oftheanodematerialmarketin

2028,accordingtoBenchmark.Chinadominatestheproductionofbothnaturalgraphite,whichisminedfromthegroundandlaterrefinedintoanodematerial,aswellassyntheticgraphite,whichismanufacturedfrompetroleum.

AccordingtoBenchmark,China’ssupplyofanodematerialexceededglobaldemandby32%in2023;howeverglobaldemandisgrowingsoquicklythatitwillcatchuptothissupplyby2024.Becauseof

thisrapidlyrisingdemand,Chinacontinuestoinvestingraphitemanufacturingdespiteitscurrent

overcapacity.Thepriceofanodematerialmadefromsyntheticgraphitefellby24%from2022to2023

andisexpectedtofallby38%fromits2022peakby2026.Thisrapidfallinpricesandthe

convergenceofthepriceofsyntheticgraphitewiththatofnaturalgraphiteisindicativeofChinasellingitsoversupplyofgraphiteatpricesthatdonotreflectthefullcostofproduction.

RATIONALESFORTRADEACTION

Thegeneraleconomicargumentforfreetradeiswellestablished;however,tradeprotectionscanbejustifiedunderseveralconditions:

1)Infantindustryprotectionsarejustifiedwhennascentindustriesfacecostdisadvantagesowingtoincreasedscalebyestablishedplayers,ordecliningcostsfromlearningbydoing.NorthAmericangraphiteproducersfacesignificanthurdlestoobtaininginvestmentinthefaceofexcessChinesecapacityingraphitemanufacturing.Securingareliablesourceof

graphiteisalsocriticaltothesuccessofthegrowingNorthAmericanLiBandEVmanufacturingsectorsaswell.

2)Tradeprotectioncanbejustifiedasaresponsetounfairtradepracticesbytheexporter,

includingdumping,governmentsubsidies,unfairandharmfulregulation,andforced

technologytransfer.Chinahasalongandwell-documentedhistoryofthesepracticesacrossanumberofgoods,forexample,inthecaseofphotovoltaicsolarpanelsinthe2010s.Chineseovercapacityingraphiteproduction,combinedwiththefallingpriceofgraphiteinrecent

years(thepriceofnaturalgraphitefell18%in2023,whilethatofsyntheticgraphitefell24%)

EnablingNorthAmericanGraphiteGrowth

suggestthatthepriceatwhichChinaissellinggraphitehasdecoupledfromthecostofproduction.

3)Strategicprotectionscanbejustifiedbasedonnationalsecurityconsiderations.LiBsarea

criticalcomponentofmanyemergingadvancedtechnologies,includingmanywithnational

securityapplications.GraphitehasbeendesignatedacriticalmineralforLiBproductionby

threeUSgovernmentagencies,andtheUSgovernmenthasmadesignificantinvestments

throughgrantsandtaxpolicychangesincludedintwoU.S.laws,theInfrastructureInvestmentandJobsActin2021andtheInflationReductionActin2022,inincreasingdomesticgraphiteproduction.

4)Poorlaborandenvironmentalpracticesprovideanotherjustificationfortradeaction,bothtolimittheunfairadvantagethatfirmswithsuchpracticesenjoy,aswellastodiscouragethepracticesthemselves.Chinesegraphiteproducersgeneratesubstantialcarbonemissions

owingtoinefficientindustrialprocessesandanoverrelianceondirtyenergysourcessuchascoal.Theyhavealsobeenlinkedtostate-sponsored“labortransfer”programsaffecting

workersintheUighurAutonomousregionthathavebeendescribedasforcedlabor.

GRAPHITEANDSECTION301TARIFFS

Startingin2018,theUShasappliedtariffs(raisedto25%in2019)onapproximately$500billionof

Chinesegoods,includingmanyproductsmadefromgraphiteundersection301oftheTradeActof1974.ThesetariffswerenotspecifictographitebutwerepartofabroadertariffpackageinresponsetounfairtradepracticesbyChina.

However,in2020,theUSTradeRepresentativeapprovedarequestfromEVmanufacturerstoexemptmostgraphiteanodematerialusedinbatteriesfromthese301tariffssincemanufacturersarguedthattheywereunabletosourceanadequatesupplyofgraphitefromnon-Chinesesources.

WhileBenchmarkforecastscorroboratetheChinesedominanceoftheglobalgraphitemarket,this

raisesachicken-and-eggproblem:domesticgraphitemanufacturerscannotsecureexternal

investmentsandmakethenecessaryinternalinvestmentstoincreasetheirfutureproductionabsentprotectionfromChina’ssignificantovercapacityingraphitemanufacturing.Absenttheseprotections,therefore,itwillcontinuetobeimpossiblefordomesticLiBmanufacturerstoobtaingraphitefrom

non-Chinesesources.

1.INTRODUCTION

Graphiteisanon-metallicmineral,which,likecoalanddiamond,isaformofpurecarbon.Graphiteisveryresistanttoheatandisrelativelychemicallyinert,twopropertiesthatmakeitusefulincertain

typesofmanufacturing.Traditionally,graphitehasbeeninhighdemandinthesteelindustry,whereitisusedinrefractories(bricksthatlineblastfurnaces),andforelectrodesinelectricarcfurnaces;aswellasinanumberofotherindustrialprocesses.

Graphiteisalsoacrucialcomponentoflithium-ionbatteries(LiBs),makingupabout30%ofLiBsbyweight,1butaccountingforonlyabout12%oftheircost.2TherecentandprojectedexpansioninthedemandforLiBshasresultedinamassiveincreaseinbothdomesticandglobaldemandforgraphite.AccordingtoforecastsbyBenchmarkMineralIntelligence,thedemandforgraphiteisexpectedto

grow70%inthenextfiveyears,whilethedemandforgraphite-derivedanodematerialusedin

batteriesisexpectedtonearlytriple.EnsuringareliablesupplyofgraphiteiscriticalforthemanufactureofLiBsandfortheproductionofelectricvehicles(EVs),whichareexpectedtoincreasinglydominateautomobileproductioninthecomingyears.

Thisreport,whichwascommissionedbytheNorthAmericanGraphiteAlliance,acoalitionofNorth

Americangraphiteproducers,reviewstheeconomicsoftheglobalgraphitemarket,theargumentsfortraderestrictionsinNorthAmerica,andtherecentinstitutionaltradecontext.Theremainderofthe

paperisorganizedasfollows:

•Chapter2presentsaquantitativeoverviewoftheglobalgraphitemarket.

•Chapter3discussestheeconomicrationaleforprotectingNorthAmericangraphiteproductionagainstcompetitionfromChinesegraphiteimports.

•Chapter4reviewsthistradehistory.

•Chapter5concludes.

1See,forexample,

/the-key-minerals-in-an-ev-battery/.

TheWorldBankGroupestimatedthatgraphiteaccountsforapproximately54%byweightofthe“mineraldemand”neededforenergystoragethrough2050.SeeKirstenHund,DanieleLaPorta,ThaoP.Fabregas,TimLaingandJohnDrexhage(2020).“MineralsforClimateAction:The

MineralIntensityoftheCleanEnergyTransition.”

/en/961711588875536384/Minerals-for-

Climate-Action-The-Mineral-Intensity-of-the-Clean-Energy-Transition.pdf.

2See,forexample,

/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/.

Mostofthebattery’sanodeismadefromgraphite,whichaccountsformostoftheanode’sapproximately12%shareofthecost.

2023

3,619

2.THEGLOBALGRAPHITEMARKET

2.1GRAPHITEDEMAND

Globaldemandforgraphiteisrobustandhasbeenrisingoverrecentyears.Accordingtodatafrom

BenchmarkMineralIntelligence,3demandtotaledapproximately3.6millionmetrictonsin2023

(Fig.

1)

.Thebulkofthisdemandwasforthreeuses:almosthalfisforelectrodesusedinsteelproduction,morethanathirdforuseinbatteries,andaroundatenthforrefractoryandfoundrymaterials.Other

smallerusesforgraphiteincludedexpandedgraphite,whichisusedasaflameretardant;

carburization;frictionproducts;andgraphiteshapes,lubricants,andcarbonbrushes.

Fig.1.Globalgraphitedemandbyuse,2023

Frictionproducts(1%)

Expandedgraphite(2%)

Refractory&

foundry

(11%)

Electrode(46%)

Battery(38%)

Otheruses(1%)

Carburisation(1%)

05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000

Thousandsofmetrictons

Source:BenchmarkMineralIntelligence,OxfordEconomics

Globaldemandforgraphitegrewby52%overthefiveyearsperiodbetween2018to2023andis

forecasttogrow70%overthefive-yearperiodfrom2023-2028

(Fig.2)

.Mostofthisgrowth(89%ofthegrowthoverthelastfiveyearsand85%oftheforecastgrowthoverthenextfiveyears)isthe

resultofincreaseddemandforgraphiteinbatteryproduction.

3BenchmarkMineralIntelligenceforecasts,January2024.

EnablingNorthAmericanGraphiteGrowth

Fig.2.Globalgraphitedemandbyuse,2018-2028

Thousandsofmetrictons

7,000

(+70%)

Battery

Other

5,000

3,619

(+52%)

2,379

2,000

1,000

0

2018

Source:BenchmarkMineralIntelligence,OxfordEconomics

2,252(+7%)

1,367(+412%)

3,525(+158%)

4,000

3,000

2,643(+17%)

6,167

2,112

6,000

2023

2028

267

2.2GRAPHITESUPPLY

Therearetwosourcesofgraphite:naturalandsynthetic.Naturalgraphiteisminedfromthegroundasflakegraphiteandlaterprocessedinvariouswaysdependingonthespecificchemicalproperties

required.Syntheticgraphiteismanufacturedfrompetroleumcoke,whichisabyproductoftheoil

refinerybusiness.Typically,syntheticgraphiteisofahigherpuritythannatural,althoughnatural

graphitecanbeprocessedtohighlevelsofpurity.Syntheticgraphiteisalsotypicallymoreexpensivethannaturalgraphite.Forthisreason,syntheticgraphiteisusedinthetwoapplicationsofgraphite

thatrequirethehighestpurity:electrodesusedinsteelproduction,whichuseexclusivelysynthetic

graphite,andbatteryproduction,whichmakesuseofbothnaturalandsyntheticgraphite.Theotherendusesofgraphitedepictedin

Fig.1

typicallyuseonlynaturalgraphite.

In2023,approximatelytwo-thirdsofthegraphiteusedgloballywassyntheticinorigin,withthe

remainingthirdbeingnatural.Naturalgraphite’sshareoftheglobalgraphitemarketisforecasttoincreasemodestlyfrom33%in2023to38%in2028.

EnablingNorthAmericanGraphiteGrowth

Fig.3.Graphitesupplybychemistry,2018-2028

Thousandsofmetrictons

8,000

6,862

7,000

6,000

5,000

62%

4,000

3,000

67%

2,000

66%

38%

1,000

34%

0

2018

Source:BenchmarkMineralIntelligence,OxfordEconomics

Natural

Synthetic

2,416

3,663

2023

2028

33%

Chinadominatesthesupplyofbothnaturalandsyntheticgraphite

(Fig.4)

.In2023,Chinasupplied67%ofthenaturalgraphiteusedgloballyand75%ofthesyntheticgraphite;or72%ofgraphite

overall.AccordingtoBenchmark’sforecast,China’sshareoftheglobalgraphitemarketisexpectedtofallonlyslightlyby2028,to65%,withitsshareofthesyntheticgraphiteincreasingslightly.TheUS’sshareofgraphiteproductionisexpectedtoremainsteadyat3%from2023to2028,whileCanadaisforecasttoincreaseitsshareofglobalgraphiteproductionfromlessthan1%to4%

Mexico

Canada2%

Fig.4.Graphitesupplybychemistryandgeography

Natural

2023

Synthetic

Total

2028

Natural

Synthetic

Total

5,0006,0007,0008,000Thousandsofmetrictons

Source:BenchmarkMineralIntelligence,OxfordEconomics

USA

Canada

China

MozambiqueMadagascar

India

01,0002,0003,000

Tanzania

Other

3%

4%

4,284

2,578

2,445

3,663

1,219

6,862

4,000

41%

80%

65%

72%

75%

67%

12%

4%

4%

4%

4%

3%

5%

5%

WhileChina’sstatusasthelargestproducerofnaturalgraphitereflectssignificantdepositsinthecountry—approximately28%ofglobalgraphitereservesaccordingtotheUSGeologicalSurvey(USGS)—severalothercountriesboastsignificantnaturalgraphitedeposits.However,graphite

reservesintheUSarebelievedtobesmall(andarenotreportedbytheUSGS),andotherNorthAmericandepositsaccountforonlyabout3%ofglobalreserves

(Fig.5)

.

Fig.5.Graphitereserves

1%

Other

19%

China

28%

Tanzania

280million

metrictons

Madagascar

9%

Mozambique

9%

Brazil

26%

6%

Source:USGS,OxfordEconomics

2.3ANODEMATERIAL

Inthissection,wefocusongraphitethathasbeenprocessedforuseinbatteries,referredtoas

“anodematerial.”4Thedemandforgraphiteanodematerialgrewjustoversix-foldfrom2018to2023andisexpectedtomorethantriplebetween2023and2028,accordingtoBenchmarkforecasts

(Fig.

6)

.MostofthatincreaseistheresultofincreaseddemandforEVbatteries,althoughthedemandforenergystoragesystems(ESSorgridstorage)andforportabledeviceslikecellphonesalso

contributedtotheincreaseddemand.Beyondourfive-yearforecastwindow,someexpertspredictthatgraphitedemandforESSmayexceeddemandforEVs.

Fig.6.Anodematerialdemandbyenduse,2018-2028

Thousandsofmetrictons

3,500

(+189%)

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

+205%

1,000

500

+39%

0

2018

Source:BenchmarkMineralIntelligence,OxfordEconomics

ElectricVehicles(EV)

EnergyStorageSystems(ESS)Portables

+2,725%

1,010(+506%)

2,920

+179%

+640%

+30%

2028

2023

167

Chinacurrentlyrepresentsjustoverhalf(52%)oftheglobaldemandforanodematerial,whichis

essentiallyitsshareofthemarketformanufacturingLiBs

(Fig.7)

.China’sshareofthisdemandis

expectedtofallmodestlyto43%by2028,withNorthAmerica’sshareoftheanodematerialdemandincreasingfrom16%to22%.However,theseforecastsaredependentontheseregions’continued

abilitytoobtainthecriticalrawmaterialsnecessaryforbatteryproduction,includinggraphite.

4Naturalgraphiterequiressignificantrefiningtobeusedinbatteries.Inthisrefiningprocessfornaturalgraphite,approximatelyhalfthegraphitebyweightislost.Syntheticgraphiteismanufacturedtoneed,soitdoesnotexperiencethislossofmaterial.

Carefulreadingofthefiguresinthischapterwillmakethisclear.Fig.2

showsthat,in2023,thedemandforgraphite(both

naturalandsynthetic)inbatterieswasapproximately1.

367thousandmetrictons.Fig.6,

however,showsa2023demandforanodematerialof1,010thousandmetrictons.Thedifferencelargelyreflectsthelossofmaterialwhennaturalgraphite(whichsuppliesapproximatelyaquarteroftheanodematerial—

seeFig.8)

isprocessedintoanodematerial.

Fig.7.Anodematerialdemandbyregion,2018-2028

Thousandsofmetrictons

3,500

3,000

15%

2,500

21%

2,000

1,500

43%

1,000

500

22%

0

2018

Source:BenchmarkMineralIntelligence,OxfordEconomics

1,010

21%

52%

China

EU

Other

NorthAmerica

2,920

2023

2028

10%

16%

167

In2023,approximately24%oftheglobalanodematerialsupplywasmadeupofnaturalgraphite,

with74%beingsyntheticgraphite

(Fig.8)

.Theremainderoftheanodematerialmarketwasmadeupofotheranodematerials,includinggraphite-silicon.

Fig.8.Anodematerialsupplybychemistry,2018-20285

Thousandsofmetrictons

3,500

3,074

3,000

2,500

2,000

75%

1,450

1,500

3%

1,000

74%

500

22%

24%

0

2018

Source:BenchmarkMineralIntelligence,OxfordEconomics

Natural

SyntheticOther

66%

6%

28%

2023

2028

275

3%

Chinadominatestheproductionofbothnaturalandsyntheticgraphiteanodematerial.In2023,Chinaproducedapproximately79%oftheanodematerialmadefromnaturalgraphite,andapproximately

97%oftheanodematerialmadefromsyntheticgraphite.AccordingtoBenchmark,absent

intervention,thesesharesareexpectedtofallonlyslightlyby2028,bywhichtimetheUSisexpected

5“Other”includesgraphite-silicon.

toaccountforabout3%ofglobalgraphiteanodematerialproduction,andCanadaforanadditional1%

(Fig.9)

.

Fig.9.Anodematerialsupplybychemistryandgeography,2023-2028

2023

Naturalgraphite

Syntheticgraphite

All

2028

Naturalgraphite

Syntheticgraphite

All

05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500

Thousandsofmetrictons

Source:BenchmarkMineralIntelligence,OxfordEconomics

USA

Canada

China

SouthKorea

Japan

Other

2%

3%5%3,074

2,303

1,066

1,450

3%

1%

91%

86%

97%

92%

79%

72%

681

346

4%

3%

Notethat,in2023,thesupplyofanodematerialof1,450thousandmetrictons(see

Fig.8)

,significantlyexceededthedemandforanodematerialof1,010thousandmetrictons

(Fig.7)

,

accordingtoBenchmarkdata.Whilethislargediscrepancymayinpartreflectmeasurementissues,itisindicativeofoversupplyintheanodematerialmarketinrecentyears,asChinahasinvestedtomeetexpectedfuturedemandforgraphite(see

Fig.10)

.WhileChinesesupplyofanodematerialwas

estimatedtoexceedglobaldemandby32%in2023,demandisgrowingsorapidlythatitisexpectedtoexceedChina’s2023supplyofanodematerialbytheendof2024.Thus,Chinacontinuestoinvestingraphitemanufacturingdespiteitsovercapacityinanticipationofdominatingrapidlygrowing

futuredemand.

Fig.10.Supply,demandforanodematerial,2021-2028

Thousandsofmetrictons

3,500

3,000

2,500

China

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

20212022202320242025202620272028

Source:BenchmarkMineralIntelligence,OxfordEconomics

Globalsupply

demand

supply

Global

ThisChineseovercapacityintheproductionofanodematerialisreflectedinthepriceforanode

materialshownin

Fig.11.

6Afterpeakingin2022,thepriceofanodematerialfromnaturalgraphitefell18%in2023andisexpectedtofallby27%fromitspeakby2026.Thepriceofanodematerialfrom

syntheticgraphitefellevenmore,by24%in2023,andisexpectedtofallby38%by2026.Withinthiscategoryofhigh-capacitygradegraphiteanodematerial,thepricepremiumforsyntheticgraphite—whichistypicallymoreexpensivetomanufacturethannaturalgraphiteistoextractandrefine—fellfrom25%in2022to15%in2023andisexpectedtofallto5%by2025.

WhileadetailedanalysisofthecostofproductionofanodematerialinChinaisnotpossibleowingtotheclosednatureofChineseindustry,thisrapidfallinpricesandtheconvergenceofthepriceof

syntheticgraphitewiththatofnaturalgraphite—alongsidetheestimatesofChineseovercapacity

shownin

Fig.11—

isindicativeofChinasellinggraphiteatpricesthatdonotreflectthefullcostofproduction,aspartofanefforttocapturefuturedemand,aswellastodisposeofexcesssupply.Thisisdiscussedfurtherinthefollowingchapter,especiallyinsection3.2onunfairtradepractices.

6Thispricerepresentsthepriceforhigh-capacitygradeanodematerial,whichisthemostwidelyusedgradeofgraphiteinLiBs.

ThepriceshownhereisthatprevailinginChina,which,becauseofChina’sdominanceoftheanodematerialmarket(seeFig.9)

,isthemostrepresentativepriceseriesfortheglobalgraphiteanodematerial.

Fig.11.Realpriceforhigh-capacitygradeanodematerialbychemistry,2021-2028inChina

2023realUS$permetricton

$12,000

$11,000

$10,000

$9,000

$8,000

$7,000

$6,000

20212022202320242025202620272028

Source:BenchmarkMineralIntelligence,OxfordEconomics

2004

3.RATIONALESFORTRADEACTION

Thegeneraleconomicbenefitsoffreetradearelongestablished.Notably,freetradebetweennationsallowsnationstospecializeinsectorswheretheyenjoyacomparativeadvantageandincreases

competitionbetweenproducers.Thisresultsinbenefitsforconsumers(lowerprices7andmore

productvariety8)andhigherlevelsofproductivity.9

Thereare,however,severalconditionsunderwhichtradeprotectionmeasurescanbejustifiedto

benefitdomesticbusinessesandconsumers.Theseincludeinfantindustryprotection,protection

againstunfairtradepractices,andprotectionsduetostrategicconcerns.EachoftheserationalesfortradeprotectionisrelevanttothecaseoftheNorthAmericangraphiteindustry:

1)Infantindustries.TheNorthAmericangraphiteindustryisinitsnascencycomparedwiththemorematureChinesegraphiteindustry.Duringtheseearlystagesofdevelopment,domesticgraphiteproducersmayneedtemporarysupportandprotectionfromChinesecompetitioninordertogrowintoself-sustainingcompetitivefirms.AreliablesupplyofgraphiteisalsokeyforNorthAmerica’sgraphite,EV,anddefenseindustries.

2)Protectionagainstunfairtradepractices.TheChinesegovernmenthasawell-documentedhistoryofengaginginunfairtradepracticesthatharmUSindustry,andgraphiteisno

exception.In2017theUSTRconductedaninvestigationwhichdeterminedthatChina

engagedintradepracticeswhichburdenedUScommerceacrosshundredsofproducts,

includinggraphite.Morerecently,between2021and2023Chinesegraphitesupplyhas

exceededglobaldemandandthepriceforhigh-capacitygradeanodematerialfellsharply.

ThisexcessproductionandsharpfallinglobalpricesaresuggestiveofsubsidiesanddumpinginChinesegraphiteandmakeitdifficultforUScompaniestoenterandoperateinthemarket.

3)Strategicconcerns.GraphiteisakeymineralfortherapidlygrowingEVindustryandlithium-ionbatterieswhichhaveimportantapplicationstomilitaryandadvancedtechnologies.As

such,tariffsareimportanttoensuretheUSdevelopsandmaintainsdomesticproductioncapacityofgraphite.

4)Laborandenvironmentalprotection.ChinesegraphiteproducershavehighergreenhousegasemissionsthanWesterncompetitorsowingtotheirgreateruseofcoalpowerand

relativelycheap,inefficientproductionprocesses.FirmsintheChinesebatterysupplychain

havealsobeentiedtostate-sponsored“labortransfer”programs,whichcriticssayamounttoforcedlabor.

Theremainderofthischapterexploreseachoftheserationalesfortradeactioninmoredetail.

7XavierJaravel,andErickSager,‘WhatarethePriceEffectsofTrade?EvidencefromtheU.S.andImplicationsforQuantitativeTradeModels’(August2019).CEPRDiscussionPaperNo.DP13902,AvailableatSSRN:

/abstract=3439455

8DavidAtkin,BenjaminFaber,andMarcoGonzalez-Navarro,‘Retailglobalizationandhouseholdwelfare:EvidencefromMexico’,JournalofPoliticalEconomy,126(1),pp.1-73,2018

9DanielTrefler,‘ThelongandshortoftheCanada-USfreetradeagreement’,AmericanEconomicReview,94(4),pp.870-895,

EnablingNorthAmericanGraphiteGrowth

3.1INFANTINDUSTRYPROTECTION

Infantindustriesprotectionisdeployedtemporarilytoenabledomesticfirmstobuildtheir

capabilities.Thiscanbeparticularlybeneficialinhigh-valuesectors,ashigherlevelsofdomesticproductionintheseindustriescancontributetohigherratesofnationaleconomicgrowth.10

Infantindustryprotectionwasusedextensively