国际可持续发展研究所-利用贸易支持发展中国家的气候适应（英）-2021.10-47正式版

LeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountriesIISDREPORTJulieDekensAnneHammillDavidHoffmannChristopheBellman©2021InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment|IISD.orgOctober2021LeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountries©2021InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentPublishedbytheInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentThispublicationislicensedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike4.0InternationalLicense.InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentTheInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment(IISD)isanaward-winningindependentthinktankworkingtoacceleratesolutionsforastableclimate,sustainableresourcemanagement,andfaireconomies.Ourworkinspiresbetterdecisionsandsparksmeaningfulactiontohelppeopleandtheplanetthrive.Weshinealightonwhatcanbeachievedwhengovernments,businesses,non-profits,andcommunitiescometogether.IISD’sstaffofmorethan120people,plusover150associatesandconsultants,comefromacrosstheglobeandfrommanydisciplines.WithofficesinWinnipeg,Geneva,Ottawa,andToronto,ourworkaffectslivesinnearly100countries.HeadOffice111LombardAvenue,Suite325Winnipeg,ManitobaCanadaR3B0T4Tel:+1(204)958-7700Website:Twitter:@IISD_newsIISDisaregisteredcharitableorganizationinCanadaandhas501(c)(3)statusintheUnitedStates.IISDreceivescoreoperatingsupportfromtheProvinceofManitobaandprojectfundingfromgovernmentsinsideandoutsideCanada,UnitedNationsagencies,foundations,theprivatesector,andindividuals.LeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountriesOctober2021WrittenbyJulieDekens,AnneHammill,DavidHoffmann,andChristopheBellman.Photo:JulieDekens/IISDCorrectCitationDekens,J.,Hammill,A.,Hoffmann,D.,andBellman,C.(2021).Leveragingtradetosupportclimateadaptationindevelopingcountries.InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment.AcknowledgementsTheauthorswouldliketothankthefollowingbodies,organizationsandindividualsfortheirinvaluablecontributionstothecontentofthisreport(inalphabeticalorder):ReginaAsariotis(UNCTAD),SvenCallebaut,AaronCosbey(IISD),JanHoffmann(UNCTAD),DavidPrimack,CarinSmaller(IISD),andAliceTipping(IISD).TheproductionofthisbriefwasfundedwithUKaidfromtheUKgovernment.IISD.orgiiLeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountriesTableofContents1.0Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................12.0Background:Theurgentneedtoadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange.................................22.1WhatIsAdaptation?.................................................................................................................................................................22.2PolicyFrameworksforAdaptation...............................................................................................................................33.0UnderstandingtheTradeandClimateAdaptationNexus.....................................................................73.1UnderstandingtheImpactsofClimateChangeonTrade.........................................................................73.2HowCountriesAreAlreadyAddressingClimateImpactsonTradeThroughTheirNAPs...134.0HowTradeHelpsCountriesAddresstheImpactsofClimateChange:Threepathways.....164.1Pathway1:Domestictradepolicymeasuresthatenhanceaccesstoadaptationgoodsandservices........................................................................................................................................................................164.2Pathway2:Accesstotrade-relatedfinancingmechanismsthatsupportclimateadaptation...............................................................................................................................................................................................214.3Pathway3:Internationalcollaborativeframeworksontradeinsupportofclimateadaptation..............................................................................................................................................................................................235.0TheRoleofNAPsinLeveragingTradeforAdaptation..........................................................................286.0ConclusionsandNextSteps................................................................................................................................33References..........................................................................................................................................................................36IISD.orgiiiLeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountriesAbbreviationsandAcronymsACCTSACRECEPACETACTCNDTISEIFTheAgreementonClimateChange,TradeandSustainabilityAgricultureandClimateRiskEnterpriseComprehensiveEconomicPartnershipAgreementComprehensiveEconomicandTradeClimateTechnologyCentreandNetworkDiagnosticTradeIntegrationStudiesEnhancedIntegratedFrameworkEUEuropeanUnionFADfishaggregationdevicesFAOFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsforeigndirectinvestmentFDIGPSglobalpositioningsystemsICTinformationandcommunicationtechnologiesInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentInternationalMonetaryFundIISDIMFIPCCISOInternationalPanelonClimateChangeInternationalStandardsOrganizationKiribatiJointImplementationPlanleastdevelopedcountriesKJIPLDCsLMICsMCICMELlow-to-middleincomecountriesMinistryofCommerce,IndustryandCooperativesmonitoring,evaluation,andlearningmicro,small,andmedium-sizedenterprisesnationalAdaptationPlanMSMENAPNDCsODAOECDPACERRTAsnationallydeterminedcontributionofficialdevelopmentassistanceOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentPacificAgreementonCloserEconomicRelationsregionaltradeagreementsIISD.orgivLeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountriesRWHSDGsSIDSrainwaterharvestingSustainableDevelopmentGoalssmallislanddevelopingstatesSMEsmallandmedium-sizedenterprisestradeagreementsTAsTBTstechnicalbarrierstotradeUNUnitedNationsUNCTADUNFCCCUNFSSVSSsWTOUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopmentUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeUnitedNationsForumonSustainabilityStandardsVoluntarysustainabilitystandardsWorldTradeOrganizationIISD.orgvLeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountries1.0IntroductionThecurrentinternationaltradesystemwasbuiltonthebackofarelativelystableglobalclimate.However,theworldisnowonthepathtoreachanaveragetemperatureof1.5C°abovepre-industriallevelsbeforethemiddleofthiscentury(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[IPCC],2019).Gradualchangesinclimate(risingtemperatures,changingrainfallpatterns)combinedwithmorefrequentandextremeweathereventsareincreasingtherisksoftradedisruption.Climatechangeisapervasive,systemicthreatwhoseimpactsaffecttrade.Measuresareneededtoanticipateandmanagethemtominimizedisruptionsandlosses.Atthesametime,tradecanalsobeanimportantvehicleforhelpingcountriesdealwiththeimpactsofclimatechangemorebroadly.Specifically,tradeprovidesanopportunitytosupportclimateadaptation:itoffersentrypointsfordevelopingcountriestoa)accessgoodsandservicesneededforadaptation,b)investincriticalproductsandservicesthatwillreduceclimaterisksintheirowncountryandabroad,c)accesstrade-relatedfinancingmechanismsthatsupportclimateadaptationandd)establishtrade-relatedinternationalcollaborativeframeworksinsupportofclimateadaptation.Takingfulladvantageoftheseopportunitieswillrequiretradenegotiatorstounderstandtheclimate-relatedvulnerabilitiesandadaptationprioritiesofdifferentcountriesandregions.ThispaperaimstosupporttradenegotiatorsinleveragingtradeforclimatechangeadaptationandtoexplorethecriticalroleNationalAdaptationPlan(NAP)processescanplayinthisregard.Specifically,theobjectivesareto:clarifywhatclimatechangeadaptation(hereafter,simply“adaptation”)isandthepolicyframeworksforadaptation;understandtheimpactsofclimatechangeontradeandhowcountriesarealreadyaddressingtheseimpactsthroughtheirNAPs;presentthreegeneralpathwaysthroughwhichinternationaltradecanfacilitatenationalandregionaladaptationtoclimatechange;anddiscusstheroleofNAPsinleveragingtradeforadaptation.Thisreportdrawsfromareviewoftheliteratureandconsultationswithkeytradeexperts.ToillustratethedifferentlinksandopportunitiesofferedbyNAPprocesses,areviewofNAPdocumentsinthreecountriesofthePacificregion(Fiji,Kiribati,andTonga)wasconducted.ThePacificwasselectedasacasestudybecauseitisanacutelyvulnerableregioninwhichtheInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment(IISD)hasworkedviatheNAPGlobalNetworksince2017.IISD.org1LeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountries2.0Background:TheurgentneedtoadapttotheimpactsofclimatechangeTheaverageglobaltemperaturehasalreadyincreasedbymorethan1°Csince1880,andtwothirdsofthiswarminghashappenedsince1975—withthelastdecadethewarmestonrecord(Susskindetal.,2019).Thiswarmingisnotevenlydistributedacrossregions,andtheimpactsmanifestthemselvesinverydifferentways—fromhyperactivehurricaneseasonsintheAtlanticandmorefrequentheatwavesinEurope,toprolongeddroughtsinSouthernAfricaanddevastatingmonsoonfloodsinAsia.Eachpassingyearseemstobreaknewclimaterecordsandofferstarkremindersoftherisingtollonhuman,economic,andenvironmentalsystems.2.1WhatIsAdaptation?Theglobalresponsetotheclimatecrisishastakenplacealongtwointerdependenttracks:i)mitigation,oractionstoprevent(further)warmingbyavoidingorreducingtheemissionsofheat-trappinggreenhousegasesanddrawingthemdownfromtheatmosphere,andii)adaptation,oractionstoprepareforandprotectagainstthenegativeimpactsofclimatechange,whilealsotakingadvantageofanypotentialnewopportunities.Asdifferentasthesetwostrategiesmayappear,theyarecomplementaryandcanofferimportantco-benefits.Forexample,renewableenergycanprovideelectricitytopowerearlywarningsystemsthathelpcommunitiesprepareforstorms,orreforestationcanslowtherushofwaterduringheavyrainfalleventsandreduceflooding,aswellasremovecarbonfromtheatmosphere.Beyondco-benefits,thetwostrategiesarefundamentallyintertwined,astheamountofadaptationneededultimatelydependsontheamountofmitigationachieved.Despitetheselinksbetweenmitigationandadaptation,theformerhastraditionallyreceivedfarmoreattentioninpolicydiscussions;indeed,untilrelativelyrecently,adaptationwasviewedasplanB,aseriesofmeasurestobepursuediforwhenmitigationactionsfailed—asurrender,ofsorts.Policy-makersfearedthataseriousacknowledgementofadaptationwouldundermineeffortstopursueambitiousmitigationmeasures.However,asscientificconsensuscoalescedaroundarecognitionthatclimatechangeimpactswereacceleratingandtheworldwaslockedintoacertainamountoffurtherwarming,adaptationbecameincreasinglyviewedasessentialtoconfrontingtheclimatecrisis.Thereisnodoubtnowthatbothmitigationandadaptationmustbesimultaneouslyandvigorouslypursued.Adaptationcantakemanyforms.Itcaninvolvechangesinprocesses,practices,andstructuresrangingfromcityengineersbuildinghigherbridgesorfarmersplantingnewvarietiesofmoredrought-tolerantmaize,togovernmentsrelocatingcommunitiesawayfromcoastsorresortsinvestinginmountainbikingtrailsinthesummertooffsetdecliningskitourismduringthewinter.Howahousehold,community,business,orcountryadaptstoclimatechangedependsonseveralfactors.Thisincludesthespecificclimatehazardstowhichtheyareexposed—e.g.,moreintenserainfallandfloodingeventsvs.longerwildfireseasonsvs.conditionsmorehospitabletodiseasevectors,etc.Italsodependsontheirvulnerabilitytothesehazards,whichisshapedinlargepartbythecapacitiestheyhaveformanagingclimaterisks.Assuch,IISD.org2LeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountriesadaptationisoftencontextspecific,tiedtolocalgeography,socio-economiccircumstances,anddevelopmentpriorities.Thesametypeofclimatechangeimpactmayrequireverydifferentadaptationmeasuresindifferentplaces.Forexample,aperi-urbancommunityaroundMumbaiwillneedtopursuedifferentstrategiesfordealingwithfloodingthanasuburbanneighbourhoodonlyafewkilometresaway.Importantly,adaptationisfarmorethanaseriesoftechnocraticmeasuresaimedatchangingpractices.Itisalsoaboutfundamentalshiftsinhowwemakedecisions—embracinganongoing,iterativeprocessofregularlyassessingcurrentandfutureclimaterisk,managinguncertainty,andembeddingthisinhowweplanourfutures,allocateresources,andmeasureprogress.Adaptationisalsoaboutaddressingthestructuraldriversofrisk—transformingtheprocessesanddynamicsthatmakepeopleandplacesvulnerableinthefirstplace(Eriksenetal.,2015).Addressingthesestructuraldriversofriskmeantherearemanysignificantoverlapsbetweenadaptationandhumandevelopment,disasterriskreduction,andenvironmentalsustainability.Thisdynamicismostacutelycapturedinlow-to-middleincomecountries(LMICs).Despitehavingcontributedtheleasttoclimatechange,LMICsaredisproportionatelyaffectedbyclimatechange.Inadditiontobeinginthepartsoftheworldthatwillbehardesthitbyclimatechange—i.e.,neartheequator,inthetropics—theireconomiesarealsoheavilyreliantonclimate-sensitivesectorslikeagriculture,forestry,andtourism(King&Harrington,2018).Takentogetherwithconstraintsinhuman,technical,andfinancialresources,LMICsstandtolosethemostinawarmingworld.TheWorldBankestimatesthatwithouturgentaction,climatechangemaypush132millionpeopleintoextremepovertyby2030(Jafinoetal.,2020).Inshort,wemustadjusttonewclimatenormalsifwehaveanyhopeofmeetingtheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs).2.2PolicyFrameworksforAdaptationAsrecognitionoftheneedtoadapttotheimpactsofclimatechangehasincreased,sotoohasitspoliticalprofile.Sinceitsentryintoforcein1994,theUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)hasprovidedaspaceforcountriestocommunicatehowclimatechangeisaffectingthem,identifyprioritiesandsolutionsforadapting,andsharelessonsaroundwhatworksandwhy.ButtheearlyyearsoftheConventionsawmuchmoreattentionbeingpaidtomitigation,anditwasn’tuntilaround2010thatcountriesaffirmedthatadaptationshouldbeaddressedonthesamelevelasmitigation(UnitedNationsClimateChangeSecretariat,2019).Thiswasreflectedinthehistoric2015ParisAgreement,alegallybindinginternationaltreatyundertheUNFCCC,whichestablishedaglobalgoalonadaptationtomatchthetemperaturegoalfordrivingambitiousmitigationaction(UnitedNations,2015).TheAgreement’ssignaturevehiclesforimplementation—i.e.,theNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs),whicharepledgessubmittedbycountriesthatoutlinehowtheywillachievetheAgreement’sgoals—arenowcentralfeaturesoftheclimatepolicylandscape.AndwhileNDCsmustatleastincludeprovisionsforreducingnationalemissions,mostcountrieshavechosentoincludeanadaptationcomponenttoensuredomesticeffortsandneedsforbuildingclimateresilienceareprofiled.IISD.org3LeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountriesFigure1.OverviewofnationaladaptationstrategiesandplansinEurope200520072009201120132015201720192006200820102012201420162018AustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandItalyLatviaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsNorwayPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnitedKingdomNoadaptationpolicyadoptedNationaladaptationstrategy(NAS)adoptedNASandnationaladaptationplan(NAP)adoptedNASrevisionadoptedNote:CroatiaadopteditsfirstnationaladaptationstrategyinApril2020.Source:EuropeanEnvironmentAgency,2020.IISD.org4LeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountriesWhileNDCsareimportantforsettingandcommunicatingnationaltargetsandmeasuresformeetingthegoalsoftheParisAgreement,theyareeffectivelyoperationalizedbyotherdomesticpolicyinstruments.Ontheadaptationside,thisisincreasinglythroughnationaladaptationplanningefforts,whichallowcountriestoidentifyandaddresstheirprioritiesforadaptingtoclimatechange.Infact,theincreasingglobalcommitmenttoadaptationplanningisreflectedintheParisAgreement,whichstatesthatparties,“shall,asappropriate,engageinadaptationplanningprocessesandtheimplementationofactions,includingthedevelopmentorenhancementofrelevantplans,policiesand/orcontributions”(Article7.9);itistheonly“shall”thatappearsundertheagreement’sarticleonadaptation.Recentestimatesrevealthat72%ofallcountrieshaveadoptedatleastoneadaptationplanninginstrument,withanother9%ofcountriesintheprocessofdevelopingone(UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgram[UNEP],2021).EuropeanUnion(EU)memberstatesarefrontrunnersinthisregard,withalmostallmembershavingadoptedatleastafirstnationaladaptationstrategyand/orplan.Figure1capturesprogressinEUmemberstates,highlightingthosecountriesthathavebeenaddressingnationaladaptationissuesforover15years(e.g.,Finland,France,andSpain).Whilenationaladaptationplanningeffortshavebeenunderwayforawhile,theNAPprocess—thatisthestepsandactivitiesthatbuttressthedevelopmentandimplementationofnationaladaptationplans—wasformallyestablishedin2010undertheUNFCCC’sCancunAdaptationFramework(Decision1CP.16).Theprocessitselfinvolvesanalyzingcurrentandfutureclimatechangeandvulnerabilitytoitsimpacts,identifyingandprioritizingadaptationoptions,implementingtheseoptions,andtrackingtheirprogressandresults.Itisacontinuous,progressive,andcountry-drivenprocessthathastwoobjectives:“toreducevulnerabilitytotheimpactsofclimatechange,bybuildingadaptivecapacityandresilience”and“tofacilitatetheintegrationofclimatechangeadaptation,inacoherentmanner,intorelevantnewandexistingpolicies,programmesandactivities,inparticulardevelopmentplanningprocesses”(UNFCCC,2012,p.80).Itiseffectivelyaboutputtingadaptationattheheartofdecisionmakingsothatcountriescanthriveinachangingclimate.AsdepictedinFigure2,theNAPprocesscanbedividedintothreebroadphases—planning,implementation,andmonitoring,evaluation,andlearning(MEL)—allofwhicharesupportedbycapacitydevelopment,financing,appropriateinstitutionalarrangements,andinformationsharingamongthedifferentactorsinvolved.Duringtheplanningphase,climate-relatedvulnerabilitiesandrisksareassessed,optionsformanagingtheserisksareidentifiedandprioritized,andstrategiesfortheirimplementationaredeveloped.Duringtheimplementationphase,thesestrategiesarefleshedoutingreaterdetail,financingsecured,andnecessarytechnicalandhumanresourcesprocuredanddeployed.Progress,results,andlessonsfromimplementingthestrategiesaretrackedandreportedaspartoftheMELphase(Hammilletal.,2019).IISD.org5LeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountriesFigure2.TheNAPprocessRPlanningImplementationFinancingInstitutionalArrangementsCapacityDevelopmentInformationSharingMonitoring&EvaluationSource:Hammilletal.,2019.Theimportanceoftheseprocessescannotbeoverstated.Theydrivecoordination,setpolicypriorities,mobilizeresources,allocatesupport,andtrackprogressincountries’effortstobecomemoreclimateresilient.Thesystemsandcapacitiesthatareestablishedthroughacountry’sNAPprocessarethefoundationofadaptationatscale,formovingfromapatchworkofprojectstoamorecoordinatedeffortatsystemchange.AsofNovember2020,anestimated125developingcountrieswerereportedtobeformulatingandimplementingNAPs,signalinganimportantleveragingopportunityforsustainabledevelopment(UNFCCC,2020).Thatis,theNAPprocess,andoneofitsmostimportantmilestones—thepublicationofaNAPdocument,whichpresentsacountry’sapproachtoandprioritiesforadaptation—canbeavaluablevehicleforestablishingstrategiclinkageswithotherdevelopmentagendasandprocesses,includinginternationaltrade.IISD.org6LeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountries3.0UnderstandingtheTradeandClimateAdaptationNexusThissectionlooksattheimpactsofclimatechangeontradeandhowcountriesarealreadyaddressingtheseimpactsthroughtheirNAPs.Understandingtheimpactsofclimatechangeontradepointstoadjustmentsthatareneededtoanticipatedisruptionsandmaintaintheflowofgoodsandserviceswhileaccommodatingshiftingsupplyanddemand.AreviewofNAPsinthePacificregionshowshowgovernmentshavealreadyprioritizedadaptationmeasuresthataddresstheobservedandanticipatedimpactsofclimatechangeontrade.3.1UnderstandingtheImpactsofClimateChangeonTradeTheglobaltradesystemisbasedoncomplexsupplychains,makingtheunderstandingofrippleeffectsverydifficult.However,theCOVID-19pandemicgivessomecluesaboutthefragilityofthesystem:thenewdiseasegeneratedadiverserangeofriskswitheconomy-wideconsequencesincludingthroughtradedisruptionsduetolackoflabourfortransport,lackofairfreight,andborderclosures(Challinor&Benton,2021).TheWorldEconomicForum’s2021GlobalRisksReportidentified“extremeweather”and“climateactionfailure”amongthemostlikelyriskstooccurinthenext10years(McLennan,2021),reflectingthegrowingawarenessofthethreatthatclimatechangeposes.Somecountries(e.g.,Canada,Germany,Switzerland,theUnitedKingdom)arestartingtorecognizetheneedtoconsider“transboundaryclimaterisks,”i.e.,howclimateimpactsabroadcanaffectcompetitivenessathome(Adamsetal.,2020).Forexample,theEuropeanCommission(2021)hasassessedthattransboundaryclimateimpactscouldbeaslargeasthedomesticimpactsofclimatechangewithinEurope.Broadly,climatechangeimpactsontradearecomplexandincludebothdirectandindirectimpactsandnegativeandpositiveoutcomes.Theywillaffectthesupplyanddemandforgoodsandservicesduetochangestothemovement,volume,andvalueofgoodsandservicestraded—changesthatdonothappeninisolation.Theyintersectwith,andwilllikelybeamplifiedby,otherdriversofchangesuchaspopulationgrowth,biodiversitylosses,andhealthepidemics.Changingclimateconditionswillparticularlyaffect:•Agri-foodcommodities:Internationaltradeinagri-foodcommodities,whichincludetradeingrains,food,fiber,livestock,andmeat,hasattractedparticularattentionintheclimatechangeliterature,inpartduetoitsimportanceforfoodsecurity,developingcountries’economies,andthesensitivityofthesectortoclimatechange.Between2000and2019,internationalfoodexportshaveincreasedby7%peryear(WorldTradeOrganization[WTO],2020).Between2016and2019,agriculturalexportsinleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs)andsub-SaharanAfricaaccountedonaveragefor35%oftotalexports(UNComtradeAnalytics,2021).AsillustratedinFigure3,thissharevariessignificantly,fromlessthan2%incountriesthatrelyIISD.org7LeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountriesmoreonmineralsorfuelslikeBotswanaorAngolatomorethan90%incountriesspecializedinagriculturalexportslikeMalawiorYemen.Figure3.ShareofagriculturalproductsinexportsofLDCsandsub-SaharanAfricancountries(avg.2016–2019)YemenGuineaBissauMalawiMyanmarEswatiniCameroonNepalEthiopiaSaoTome&PrincipeCapeVerdeSeychellesSierraLeoneAfghanistanKiribatiZimbabweGhanaSolomonIslandsLaoPDRTogoBurrkinaFasoMozambiqueMaliTheGambiaComorosKenyaSouthAfricaZambiaUgandaSamoaBhutanCoted'IvoireBurundiCambodiaHaitiTuvaluLiberiaSudanGuineaNigerLesothoDjiboutiChadMauritaniaMadagascarMauritiusRwandaBangladeshNigeriaBotswanaSouthSudanCentralAfricanRepublicEritreaTanzaniaSenegalBeninCongoDRAngolaBurundiNamibiaCongo,Rep.0%AgriculturalproductsSource:Authors’elaborationbasedonUNComtradeAnalytics,2021.50%100%0%50%100%OthercommoditiesIPCC’sSpecialReportonClimateChangeandLand(2019)establisheswithhighconfidencethatclimatechangehasalreadyaffectedfoodproductionandislikelytodisproportionatelyaffectfoodproductionandtradeinemerginganddevelopingcountries.Thiswillleadtoshiftsinagriculturalproductionandyieldsamongcountriesandregions.AccordingtotheGlobalCommissiononAdaptation(Bapnaetal.,2019),IISD.org8LeveragingTradetoSupportClimateAdaptationinDevelopingCountriesclimatechangecouldreduceglobalagricultureyieldsupto30%by2050,mostlyaffecting500millionsmallfarms.Forexample,inhigher-latituderegions,yieldsofsomecrops(e.g.,maizeandwheat)havealreadyincreased,whileinlower-latituderegions—inwhichmanydevelopingnationsaresituated—yieldsofthesamecropshavealreadydeclined(IPCC,2019).AgriculturalyieldsareprojectedtofurtherdecreaseinpartsofAfricaandLatinAmericaduetowater-relatedstresses(IPCC,2019).Changingyieldsaffectthepriceatwhichthegoodistraded,asadecreaseinsupply(whendemandisconstantorincreasingduetopopulationgrowth)willleadtohighe