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6、L5Kfl fi fiAfl B6:fl fi,fl9$fl“flI0.40.50.60.70.8250200150100500fi$ $fl B62014-2019$L5fl$(y/=?)fl B62014-2019$75L5K(=?).& $250200150100500201520162017E2018E2019E%:zz , fi $y$ fl B62014-2019$fiK# fi$-(fl )# $fl#&-(fl)0%8%16%24%32%01800360054007200201420152016 2017E 2018E 2019Efl B62014-2019$fi /!)($f

7、ly)yoy2014201520162017E 2018E 2019E%:zz , fi $y$ %:zz , fi $y$ 2014201520162017E 2018E 2019E%:zz , fi $y$ fl9$fl“fl ,$9 fiflfi0z2017-2019EPSy fi$f3.1043.838%4.692yA“ )1$ fi0fi9,3 .$1$ g2016,zqy$fifP12 ,2017H1zG10 ,%$fl $ 2017H2,zfifiG,10 G,%$5 q,5 fl%zy$fifP$10 Sfl12%fi,flqsOfi;7%Sfi,fiffififiROI8fi

8、fi&fi&2015A2016A2017A2018E2019E3 ($fl$fi)32,06334,1034826953,84864,2372 fi(%)10.26.441.523.819.3 fi7 ($fl$fi)2,0362,151280238844590 fi7 fi(%)-31.45.630.2638.6318.17fl 0:fl fi,fl9$fl“fl29.0%7.2%5.4%3.6%1.8%0.0%3528211470t&Vm$t&Vm$S2014201520162017E2018E2019EELP:zz$, fi $y$;2017H1,z t&Vm$f12.46y,fl3.5

9、%,t&Vm$Sfi5.8%,fl2.4 $yAzV(flfl*, I: :b, $:f,fl .fi,fi,i$Dm$fi fifi2017-19,zt&Vm$Sy fi6.5%5.7%5.1% ” $fi :“XlY$O,$3lfifl$,fiflO,$o“Xlfl$flfibflfl4flR:1)$fi$;“Xl2,$fl$3fi2) $3l$fl$,“Xlhfi :fifiulflfiz$ ,fiflflflflt2,z YMflWvY$fl|),fl1qWv$Y$2,$fl$ K$o$f0ffiY$fl fl$:$n5,wn Lflflf3Bg,OPEC%fifl%flfiflfib

10、,n Ln P$3lfiUrfiffi,flfi$3lfiflfi$ $fl:$3lfi2,fifiLNG#3 L % $3l$o LflflIfrfl4 :=:z 5, fi $ y$/2017$ fi,$ $fi 2017$ fi,fifi2018$fi fi fi2017fl$ $U3057fl,fl#fi26.85%,#fi;2018“fl$ $U955.6fl,fl#fi37.9%,#)$9(26%)8$ $U;#fiM:= ”fl$3 yz:,fl$SK 2018“$U 0;#;%$, 6I=#fifi9,82.48%;$ 6I=fi46.35%,4$D6fi40.20%,6$JI

11、=fi39.87%2011-2018“fl$ $Ufl()2017$ fi16%17%11%8%15%17%12%18%15%12%9%6%3%0%21%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017”fl2011-2017*”fl4 :=:z 5, fi $ y$/2017$ fi,$ $fi fl$z2017 $2 ($ :fl)()2017$ fi $&:z !, fi $ y$ fl$z2018“fl$ $2 ($ :fl)z zfi20172016 $/.&0956.HK6737.314584.7247.0%4.&0958.HK21191.3018432.501

12、5.0%&$0916.HK34448.4829962.2115.0% .&0182.HK1997.171335.3949.6%4$*0816.HK14757.2912159.2021.4%$ .&1798.HK15038.3612076.5424.5%z zfi2018Q12017Q1 $/.&0956.HK24.8117.7439.87%4.&0958.HK68.3757.0719.80%&$0916.HK109.7782.4333.16% .&0182.HK82.4645.1982.48%4$*0816.HK45.6032.5240.20%$ .&1798.HK48.9233.4346.3

13、5%955.6692.9737.90% $&:z !, fi $y$ 9 AE:z :, fi $ y$5i$ $;UE,%flZfl$dWW fiqF)fl20%fi,%$;$VUEW fiq Fn,53.32%rfl$dWfifiF)fl10%fi,%$;$VUEn31.74%r8KF(ROE)k, $;UE,fi3.91%,4U;UEn,13.46%,ROE*1fi$%;$VUE,17*1fi4.31%,11.39%rfi$Fk,i$&;UEfi$Fn26.4%(163.4%)fi,%flzfi$ F)fl20%fi,%$;$VUE,fi10.66%rpFk,E$,fi63.40%,$&

14、;UEn,fi79.63%rflA,2017fl$dW,j$f;*fi,fifi2018fl$dWzR? Vfi$fi4%fl!fi fi$fir2017fl$WdW fiqFflfiF(=)$ $fi 2017fl$dWfi$F%pF9 AE:z :, fi $ y$553.32%49.22%47.89%37.45%31.74%28.54%31.20%15.00%26.09% 20.49%17.20%10.24%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%;$V(fl$)4U;UEE$ $;UE4$O;(fl$)$&;UEW fiqFfi fiF2017$ fi,$ $fi 14491981.3

15、1930150335252680%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%3500300025002000150010005000201320142015201620172017Q12018Q1fl flflL V:z M,)fi)$ y$E2013-2018Qfl fl N6fl63297L V:wind,)fi)$ y$Efl$m 2017N6flfi1503flfl,fl22%gfifl1.64fl,fl6fi10%,6 R(15%)$I2018“fl$N6fl526flfl,fl50%k2018“)$fl|16681flfl,fl6fi12%.N6fl6o%20172$fi d$

16、,fi#,fly8$Nafi flD%rNfl$c=%fl$N6flE/$fiy1fiyfi,fl2016fl2017,$fiy 1fiyN6flflfii50%,J i30%$fiyfiyfl7ffi%rfifi%ry$yK%r$flTflfl$,N6fl%rRfififl;,2J2017N6fl6 Ffififl;%rfi 2013-2018$Q fifl 40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%180001600014000120001000080006000400020000201320142015201620172017Q12018Q1gfifl6fl flfl,R fi$

17、%cR100GW,fi:fl$ e $ fl1,jRofl 2020$ fl(yfl) ,fi fifijR z$1fl,fiAJflfl$E$fl 9ux%M,fl$i!2018 fi flSfi2017fi0wx3,fi fifi2018 fl$E$flg;$fix$ zfl fl fl fl(MW)201320142015201620172018EE$O992523977035524804EO76413062194532462450O$136616332222160410301050 EO1941461814203705004$UE78413881528923358500$ EO5019

18、711131317302510flV?130615221003103351610004v$1250682681397101012004-416714328888850$ $961681501881262004$-6641071480521500$6223727579500E$fl-62137740$-24.58%DJO:wind, fi $y$;2017fl$B5fi$fi1948fi,fl6 206fi;2018“fl$8vfiB5 fi$fi592fi,6 124fi2017”flgfi12%,165.2 $yAfl$fi$fi TKo S$fl.p$efi$y20183$ ,“fi qf

19、l;fl$fi$fiffi fifi,$+fl$.Ul fl7fif,sfiZfl,fififlfi fl2016-2018efi$y$12,%$20164,2017.2018y 7.1,fl12efiy$8 $fl;,)U6$6800flfl,$fl;fl$bK$1fl,fi fifi2017fl$fi$fiT$|2018Tc:zz-fi$y$Lfi$fi , fi 20741920 189018931728 1742194846859230%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%050010001500200025002011201220132014201520162017

20、2017Q12018Q12011-2018$Q$ fi fi$fi fi$fi T62011-2018$Q $ 21.19%19.73%15.00%14.45%9.00%17.10%15.76%12.00%15.28%12.00%10.43%8.30%10%6.50%7.82%11%7.50%7.40%6.98%0%5%10%15%20%25%2015201620172018Q1c$/Uc 4Uc U$cTc:zz-fi$y$L:8E fiD fi$fi+fl flfl ,0 fi20fi+ fi$fi,2618fifi $fl flfl ,0 fi20fi+ fiD fi$fi+5fl5.:

21、fl fl,B02):zz , fi $y$ ):zz , fi $y$ 2011-20188QzB00flfi):zz , fi $y$ z2017 fi1 !)105.54y, fl fi14.2%,fi8fi30.12y,fl fi13.3%9; fi %:fi$fi $ $5 fi970%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%120001000080006000400020000201220132014201520162017z61 fiDqfl1 !)fi8!) fi8 150%100%50%0%-50%-100%2500200015001000500020122013201420

22、15201620172018E2019Ezfl flfl$# fl 2017-2019EPSy fi$f0.285y0.320y 0.353yM+“ )Mfi$fi,2018fifi $ fl : % fi -/2:zz , fi $y$*fifi z2017fl$fi$fi-fi2082fi,9fi2016(1966) 116fi,fi4.3%,J& fi$fi-(1948)134fiMz2018“fi$fi-$fi650fi,fl 90fiM“$4fi7.5%,fl4 $yA,flfl20178.3%$440.8%M fifi2018$4fi5%M2015201620172018E2019

23、E!($flCNY)73579239105541172512457 fi(%)202614116 fi)($flCNY)18202582301239434207 fi(%)66421331720%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%050010001500200025002012201320142015201620172017Q12018Q1fl$& fi$fi - (%30 : + 1fi $ :fi $4fifi fi ( 0- 0 : +fi 6=A:zz , fi $y$0fl$# :0 $ fi2016-2018 Qz0 +flfi2018Q“,zfl$ fi $24.8fl,flfi

24、39.87%,Hffi;h 18Q1fi$fi808fi , fi156fi h $C6.98%, fl1.7 $yA$fiX/K7fl U5C2+= hflzflfiL$ flAfi ffi$fi6%_X fihfi fifizfl$ $ $;f20%hflz2016-2018Q“fl$ $fifi=,2018“ $fi;,$;O$h6=A:zz , fi $y$02012-2018$& Qz0 +flfi2017-2019EPSy fi$f0.253y0.321y 0.405y4“ )$ :fi %2018Q“,zfi$3? ?VM8.69JL,flfi65.14%$3?fi V 6.28

25、JL,flfi78.02%,$3?Y V2.19JL,flfi40.56%fi Y :$fi/G“6?X$ ;fiAfl; ; $?V2#,fifi2018fl$3? fiOP %fl$# :- $ fifi2012-2018$&Qz$ ) (fl72017-2019EPSy fi$f0.459y0.499y0.565yN+“*!+N$ !fi fi :$ fi&fi, fi& -/3:zz , fi $y$)2015201620172018E2019E ($flCNY)19,64922,30424,5922690228673 fi(%)8.113.510.39.46.6fi$ fi&($flCNY)2,8813,4153,68849065753 fi(%)10.8318.567.9832.917.062012-2018Q1z$ !flflfi fi& 2017zO$ $C$.!fi5.36%,$KJ$GflzO$ YfiI449.78%N2018“O$ $Cfl13.42%N(fifi 30%5%11%17%15%33%0%20%40%02000020122013201420152016

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