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GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025
WHITEPAPER
MARCH2025
Images:GettyImages
Contents
Foreword3
Executivesummary5
1Cautiousoptimism7
2Sustainabilityrisks10
2.1Technologychallenges11
2.2Policyandgeopoliticalchallenges19
2.3Sustainabilitychallenges25
3Non-sustainabilityrisksandtrends26
3.1Policyandgeopoliticalrisks27
3.2Economicrisks28
3.3Socialissues31
3.4Technologyrisks32Conclusion34
Appendix:Methodology35
Contributors36
Acknowledgements36
Endnotes37
Disclaimer
Thisdocumentispublishedbythe
WorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.
Thefindings,interpretationsand
conclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedand
endorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarily
representtheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,
Partnersorotherstakeholders.
©2025WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformation
storageandretrievalsystem.
GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20252
GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20253
March2025
GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook2025
Foreword
GimHuayNeo
ManagingDirector
andHead,Centrefor
NatureandClimate,
WorldEconomicForum
Thisyearmarksanimportantmomentforthe
aviationsector’sjourneytonetzero.Updated
nationalactionplansonhowcountriesintendtodecarbonizeaviationneedtobesubmittedtotheInternationalCivilAviationOrganization(ICAO)bythenextgeneralassemblyinSeptember.
Aspartofthosedecarbonizationplans,thefirst
fewsustainableaviationfuel(SAF)mandates
inEuropecameintoforceinJanuary–with
increasinglytoughtargetsupto2030.Overthe
comingmonths,moreSAFplantswilllookto
maketheirfinalinvestmentdecisionandpotentiallyprogresstoconstruction.Expectationsfor
economy-widedecisionsatCOP30inOctoberarealsohigh,withtheaviationandcleanfuelsagendaplayinganincreasinglyprominentroleinmultilateralevents,includingtheG7andG20.
Theactionsthatindustryandgovernments
acrosstheworldtakethisyearwillbevitalto
ensuretheaviationsectorremainsontherightflightpathtomeetinternationallyagreedtargets,withnocountriesorregionsleftbehindinthe
questforsustainability.TheglobalvisionagreedthroughICAOmeansthat,withinfiveyears,thecarbonintensityofjetfuelwillhavetoreduce
by5%.Lookingahead25years,ICAO’slong-term“aspirationalgoal”isnet-zerointernationalaviationby2050.
However,thesectorisalsopoisedtogrow
significantlybythatdate.Aviationexecutivesare
increasinglyfacingtrade-offsbetweensustainabilityandgrowth,andboththeseareaffectedbythe
constantlyevolvinggeopoliticalcontext,withincreasedconflicts,loomingtradebarriersandrecentelectionsacrosstheglobeaffectingair
traffic,policy,investmentandfeedstockflows.
Theseeventsareimpactingthedynamicsbetweencountriesandtheopportunitiesforcollaboration
atatimewhensuchcooperationiscriticalfor
thelow-carbontransition.Inthisimportantyear
foraviationsustainability,theWorldEconomic
Forumaimstofostertheinternationalactionandcollaborationneededbetweengovernments,
aviationstakeholdersandthewidervaluechaintoaccelerateindustry’stransitiontonet-zeroaviationandensuresustainabilityremainsparamountinthesector’squestforgrowth.
Theaviationindustryhasdemonstrateditsabilitytotransformandadapt,byovercomingsomeofthechallengesthathaveaffectedthesectorin
recentyears,fromsafetyissuestosupplychain
constraintsandlong-COVIDimpacts.Howcan
thisspiritofresiliencebefunnelledtowardsfuellinggreatersustainabilityandhowcanmomentumforsustainableaviationbemaintainedasthesectorexpands?Whichprioritiesandactionscanbe
takenforward?Whichrisksshouldpublic-privatecollaborationfocusonthisyeartoaccelerate
progresstowardsdecarbonization?
Thesearesomeofthequestionsweposedto
ChiefExecutiveOfficersfromtheWorldEconomicForum’saviationcommunityinlate2024andearly
2025.Theirviewshaveinformedthisnewflagshipreportthataimstosetthescenefordiscussions
overtheyearahead.Ourassessment,whichwe
plantopublishregularlyinthisformat,reviewskeymarketdevelopmentsandcomplementsthemwithstakeholders’perspectivesandpriorities.Ouraimistocapturetheevolutionofaviationexecutives’
viewsovertimeandtoinformongoingopportunitiesforpublic-privatecollaboration.
GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20254
JustinErbacci
DirectorGeneral,AirportsCouncilInternationalWorld
In2024,theaviationindustryreachedasignificant
milestone,withglobalpassengertrafficnotonly
recoveringbutalsosurpassingthepre-pandemic
levelsof2019,markinganeweraofgrowth.Airportsplayakeyroleintheaviationsector,directlyemploying11.6millionpeopleworldwide.Asenablersofa
sustainableaviationecosystem,airportsarefocusedonreducingenergydemand,improvingefficiencyandsupportingthedeploymentofSAF.
However,challengesremain.Governments,energyproducersandthefinancesectormustaccelerate
SAFadoptionthroughtargetedpoliciesand
investments.Transparenttraceabilitysystemsarecrucialandgovernmentsmustintegrateaviation’scleanenergyneedsintonationalpolicies,ensuringaccesstogreenenergy.Infrastructuredevelopmentforclimateresilience,backedbyfinancial
mechanisms,isalsovital.
Wearecommittedtocollaboratingwithindustrypartnersin2025andbeyondinbuildinga
sustainableaviationfuture.
Executivesummary
Aviation’sjourneytowardsnetzerofacesnumerouseconomic,technologicalandgeopoliticalrisks,butthemainchallengefor2025istheavailabilityandcostof
sustainableaviationfuel.
Theaviationsectorisatacriticaljuncture
in2025,asupdatedstateactionplansfor
decarbonizationareduetobesubmittedtothe
InternationalCivilAviationOrganization(ICAO).
Industrystakeholdersareincreasinglylooking
toadvanceaviationdecarbonizationactivityin
tandemwithboostinggrowthpostCOVID-19,butanumberofchallengesareaffectingprogressonsustainability.Thisyear’sactionsbyindustryandgovernmentsarevitaltomeetinginternationally
agreedtargetsandensuringnoregionsareleftbehindinthetransitiontonet-zeroaviation.
Thisreport,producedbyAirportsofTomorrow–a
WorldEconomicForuminitiativebringingtogether
leadersfromacrosstheaviationindustry–aimsto
provideanoverviewofthetoprisksandopportunitiesaffectingaviationdecarbonizationprogressin2025,asperceivedbyindustrymembers.Thegoalisto
accelerateactionsthattheaviationindustrycan
takeforwardonSAF,battery-electricandhydrogenaviationtoachieveanet-zeroaviationindustryby
2050.AirportsofTomorrowC-suitestakeholdersweresurveyedandinterviewedtocaptureperspectives,
opportunitiesandrisksconcerningthisyear’sprogressondecarbonizingaviation.
Aviation-specificrisks
Widerrisks
1Availability/costofSAF
1Geopolitics
AlignmentofSAFpolicyacross
regionsandlongevityofsubsidies
2
2
Bankabilityandattractivenessoftheaviationsectorforinvestors
3
3Economicdownturnandinflation
ImplementationofCORSIA
TraceabilityofsustainabilitycriteriaforSAFfeedstocks
4
Changein
governments
5
5
Competingpriorities(e.g.climateresilience,growth,revenue)
●Technology
●Policyandgeopolitics
●Economic
●Sustainability
Note:SAF=sustainableaviationfuel,CORSIA=CarbonOffsettingandReductionSchemeforInternationalAviation.
Source:WorldEconomicForum.
GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20255
4
Effectivenessofcarbonpricingandemissionstradingschemes
FIGURE1Top-10risksaffectingaviationdecarbonizationprogress
GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20256
TABLE1
Top-10risksaffectingaviationdecarbonizationprogress
Widerrisks
1
Geopoliticsisthetopnon-sustainabilitychallengeaffectingprogressondecarbonizingaviation.Thewithdrawalof
theUSfromtheParisAgreementinearly2025andthe
“AmericaFirst”tradepolicyarebeingcloselymonitored
bytheaviationcommunity,asincreasingprotectionism
andtariffsposesignificantrisks.Geopoliticaltensionsare
destabilizingfeedstockexportsandfuellingdomesticenergysecurityconcerns.Internationalscrutinyonfairnessand
competitivenessaddstothecomplexdynamicsatplay.
Bankabilityandattractivenessoftheaviationsectorforinvestors:aviationisnotseenasaprioritysectorforinvestmentbythefinancialcommunity,despiteneedingsignificantcapitaltomeetdecarbonizationgoals.Multipleaviationtechnologies(e.g.SAF,hydrogen,eVTOLs)arelookingtosecurecapital,withthefirstlargeinvestmentsinSAFin2024andincreasingmomentumforeVTOLs.
Technologychallengesandregulatorypressurespersist,influencingwhetherandhowinvestmentsinaviation
decarbonizationtechnologiesarebeingmadeandperceivedbythefinancialcommunity.
Economicdownturnandinflation:despiteeasing
inflationarypressuresandencouragingprofitabilityfigures,theglobaleconomicoutlookremainsaconcernforaviationexecutives,particularlyinemergingmarkets.Risingcostsinlabour,supplychainbottlenecksandregulatoryuncertaintyareimpactingprofitabilityandaffectingthesector’sfocusonthenet-zeroagenda.
Changeingovernments:followingayearof“super
elections”,stakeholdersareconcernedaboutchanging
governmentpriorities,policyU-turnsandthelongevity
ofincentivesthatcouldimpactaviationdecarbonization.
Somecountries,liketheUnitedKingdom,haveacceleratedtowardssustainableaviation,butthisisnottheglobaltrend.ElectionsthisyearinAustralia,Canada,Germany,SingaporeandLatinAmericacouldfurtherinfluenceaviationpolicies.
3
4
2
5
Competingpriorities:asthesectorlookstogrowfurtherintermsofpassengernumbers,connectivityandprofitability,thedecarbonizationagendafaceschallengestoensureaviation’sexpansioncanbesustainableandcanattractthecapital
neededtoscale-upnewtechnologyandmeetdecarbonizationgoals,inanincreasinglycompetingenvironment.Profitability,
growth,climateresilienceandconsumerexperience
improvementsarecriticalareasoffocusforAirportsof
Tomorrowstakeholders,affectinghowaviationexecutivesseeandprioritizethedecarbonizationagendaacrossregions.
Aviation-specificrisks
aviationdecarbonizationin2025.Airlinesneedtocommittolong-termSAFofftakeagreementsbutde-riskingmechanismsarevitalastherisksofadvancedSAFproductiontechnologiesandvaryingregionalpoliciesposesignificanthurdles.More
corporateinvolvementandfavourablepoliciesareessentialtoattractcapitalandsupportSAFprojectsglobally.
AlignmentofSAFpoliciesacrossregionsandlongevityofsubsidiesarecrucialforencouraginginvestmentandensuringconsistentSAFadoptionacrossregions.In2024,AsiaPacificemergedasakeymarket:severalcountriesintroduced
supportivepolicies,whileChinaisexpectedtounveildetailedSAFpoliciesthisyear.BrazilandChilehaveestablished
nationalSAFprogrammesandpartnerships.OmanandSaudiArabiaareformulatingstrategiesforSAFdevelopment.EuropehasstrongSAFpoliciesbutfacescompetitionfromemergingmarketswithcompetitivefeedstockadvantages.IntheUS,
thefutureofSAFincentivesremainsuncertainduetopoliticalchanges.Patchypolicyframeworksandvaryingsustainabilitystandardsposechallenges:consistent,alignedpolicies
areneededtosupportglobaladoptionofSAFandensureprogresstowardsdecarbonization.
ImplementationofCORSIA:effectiveimplementation
ofICAO’sCarbonOffsettingandReductionSchemefor
InternationalAviation(CORSIA)isessentialforstandardizingcarbonreductioneffortsandensuringglobalcompliance.
Despitepositivemomentum,withmorecountriesjoiningandnewcarboncreditprogrammesapproved,challengesremainduetonon-participationofmajorcountries.
TraceabilityofsustainabilitycriteriaforSAFfeedstocks:
asaviation’srelianceonSAFincreases,scrutinyonthe
sustainabilitycredentialsoffeedstockswillintensify.Concernsaroundland-usechange,deforestation,pooragricultural
practices,foodsecurityandbiodiversityimpactshaveledto
regulatoryrestrictionsandbansoncertainbiofuels.Improvedtransparencyandresearch,alongwithconsistentsustainabilitystandards,areessentialtoaddresstheserisksandsupport
thedevelopmentofalternativeSAFproductionpathways.
Effectivenessofcarbonpricingandemissionstradingschemes:airlineswillneedtonavigatebothCORSIAandlocalemissiontradingschemes,withvaryingregional
policiesandtheinclusionofnon-CO2emissionsaddingcomplexityandpotentialcompliancecosts.
AvailabilityandcostofSAFarethebiggestchallengesfor
3
4
2
5
1
Note:Theserisksarebasedonresponsestothesurveyofaviationexecutivesconductedforthisreport.
GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20257
1Cautiousoptimism
Expectationsarehighforayearofclimate
actionin2025toensurethedecarbonizationvisionfor2030oftheInternationalCivil
AviationOrganizationcanbeachieved.
werecautiouslyoptimistic.Morethantwo-thirdsofrespondentswereconfidentthatthemomentumforaviationdecarbonizationwillcontinuein2025,withaminorityvoicingneutralornegativeexpectationsfortheyearahead(seeFigure2).
Duringthelastquarterof2024,theWorldEconomicForumsurveyedtheviewsof
around30C-suiteexecutivesfromtheaviation
community.Despiteheadwindslastyear–includingSAFplantclosures,scrappedprojectsanddelaysinpolicyguidanceandincentives–executives
FIGURE2Optimismaboutprogressondecarbonization
Lookingaheadat2025,howoptimisticareyouthattheaviationsectorwillmakemeaningfulprogresstowardsdecarbonization?
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
●Veryoptimistic
Neutral
●Somewhatoptimistic
●Somewhatpessimistic
Source:WorldEconomicForum.
Morethantwo-thirdsofrespondentstotheForum’s
C-suitesurvey
wereconfidentthatthemomentum
foraviation
decarbonizationwillcontinuein2025.
Respondentswerealsolargelyoptimisticabout
thefeasibilityofthe2030visionagreedatthe
thirdConferenceonAviationandAlternativeFuels(CAAF/3),convenedbytheInternationalCivil
AviationOrganization(ICAO)inDubaiinNovember2023(seeBox1andFigure3).However,aminorityofrespondentsremainpessimisticaboutthe
sector’sabilitytoreducethecarbonfootprintofaviationfuelsby5%bytheendofthedecade.
Industryleadersflaggedsomedevelopmentsasparticularlypromising:
–Thesecondhalfof2024sawnotable
breakthroughsintechnologydevelopmentandinvestment,withsignificantcapitalraisedby
SAFstart-ups.
–SAFproductiondoubledfrom2023to2024andisexpectedtodoubleagainin2025.1
–Afterseveralelectioncyclesacrosstheglobe,
moreadministrationsareintroducingnewSAF
policiesorstrengtheningexistingpolicies–the
newgovernmentintheUnitedKingdomboostedsupportforSAFwithinweeksoftakingoffice.
GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20258
BOX1DecarbonizationvisionoftheInternationalCivilAviationOrganization(ICAO)
Source:ICAO.2
adoptedanewICAOGlobalFrameworkfor
SustainableAviationFuels(SAF),LowerCarbonAviationFuels(LCAF)andotherAviationCleanerEnergies,whichaimstoreduceCO2emissionsininternationalaviationby5%by2030,
comparedtozerocleanerenergyuse.
CORSIA:
TheCarbonOffsettingandReductionSchemeforInternationalAviationwasadoptedbyICAOin2016toachievecarbonneutralgrowthfrom
2020.Theglobalmarket-basedschemerequiresairlinestooffsetanyincreaseinCO2emissionsabove2019levels.CORSIA’spilotphasebeganon1January2021anditwillbecomemandatoryforallcountriesin2027.
Netzeroby2050:
Atthe41stICAOAssemblyinOctober2022,
delegatesfrom184memberstatesofICAOand57organizationsadoptedacollectivelong-
termglobalaspirationalgoal(LTAG)ofnet-zerocarbonemissionsby2050.Thisgoalwillbe
achievedthroughacceleratedadoptionofnewandinnovativeaircrafttechnologies,streamlinedflightoperationsandincreasedproductionanddeploymentofsustainableaviationfuels(SAF).
5%reductionincarbonemissionsfromaviationfuelby2030:
AtthethirdICAOConferenceonAviationandAlternativeFuels(CAAF/3),inDubaiinNovember2023,over100memberstates
FIGURE3
OptimismthatICAO’s2030visionwillbeachieved
Howoptimisticareyouthatthe2030visionagreedatCAAF/3lastyearwillbeachieved?
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
●Veryoptimistic
Neutral
●Somewhatpessimistic
●Verypessimistic
●Somewhatoptimistic
Note:CAAF/3=ThirdConferenceonAviationandAlternativeFuels,convenedbytheInternationalCivilAviationOrganization(ICAO)inDubaiinNovember2023.
Source:WorldEconomicForumindustrysurvey.
ThenextICAO
GeneralAssembly
inSeptember
2025willbean
importantmomenttoassessindustryoptimismaround
thelong-termglobalaspirationalgoal
fornet-zerocarbonemissionsby2050.
spaceduringrecentconferencesofparties,COP29sawamultitudeofaviation-relatedeventsand
conversationsspurredbykeydevelopmentsininternationalnegotiations.
InBaku,boththeagreementofanewcollective
quantifiablegoal–aimingtoscale-upatleast$1.3trillionofpublic-privatefinancingfordeveloping
countriesby2035–andtheadoptionoffinal
Article6ruleshaveimplicationsonaviation.Theformerledtomultiplecallsforimplementinga
globalsolidaritylevyonaviationandshippingfuels(seeChapter3.3),3whilethelatterpavedthewayforasmootherimplementationofICAO’sCORSIAschemebyclarifyingrulesoncorresponding
adjustmentsfortheuseofcarboncreditsasmitigationmeasuresinaviation,whileavoidingdoublecountingtowardsanNDC.
ThenextICAOGeneralAssemblyinSeptember
2025willbeanimportantmomenttoassess
industryoptimismaroundthe2030visionand
whetherthelong-termglobalaspirationalgoal
(LTAG)fornet-zerocarbonemissionsby2050willremainthenorthstarguidingcountriesahead.
SeveralofthestakeholdersinterviewedwouldliketoseerenewedsupportforICAOfromallcountries,withaparticularfocusonsupportingtheGlobal
Southtoachieveajustandequitabletransition.
ICAO’sGeneralAssemblywillnotbetheonly
internationaleventunderscrutinythisyear.
November’sCOP30inBrazilrepresentsamajormomenttoadvanceclimatenegotiationson
thebackofdevelopmentsduringCOP29in
Bakuandthesubmissionofupdatednationallydeterminedcontributions(NDCs)during2025.Whileaviationhastraditionallytakenuplimited
GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook20259
Asaviationandclimatenegotiatorsconvenein
internationalforumsduringthispivotalyearfor
climateaction,severalsurveyedCEOshighlightedtheneedforgovernmentstoagreeonaconsistentaviationdecarbonizationapproachacross
countriesandtoestablishaclearpathtocarbonemissionsreductiontargetsalreadyset,potentiallythroughtheintroductionofinterimmilestonesonthejourneytothe2030ICAOvisionand2050
long-termaspirationalgoal,soastobetterguideindustryandinvestors.
However,notallrespondentsweresupportiveof
additionalmilestonesortargets,giventheincreasingfatiguearoundsustainabilitytargetsthatemergedattheendoflastyear.Someexecutiveswarnedaboutsettingtargetswithoutsupportingactions.
Chapter2exploressomeofthemoresignificant
enablersproposedbyindustryleaders,suchas
globalstandardizationofSAFsustainabilitycriteria,regulatorystandardsbuildingonCORSIAandtheadoptionofglobalde-riskingmechanismsforSAF.
Theaviationindustry’sjourneytowardsnetzeroisatestamenttothepowerof
innovationandcollaboration.AtEcoCeres,wearecommittedtoscalingSAF
productionthroughcutting-edgetechnologiesandstrategicpartnerships,ensuringthatcostandavailabilitynolongerhinderprogress.AsupdatedstateactionplansaresubmittedtoICAO,itisimperativethatgovernments,industryleadersand
innovatorsworkhand-in-handtoacceleratedecarbonizationefforts.Together,wecanturnthesechallengesintosteppingstones,ensuringasustainablefutureforaviationandleavingnoregionbehindinthetransitiontonetzero.
MattiLievonen,ChiefExecutiveOfficer,EcoCeres
GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook202510
2
Sustainabilityrisks
SAFavailabilityandincentives
remaintoppriority,asmomentumforotherleversreduces.
TheForum’ssurveyofaviationexecutivesasked
theirimpact.Threemaingroupsofchallengeswereidentifiedaroundtechnology,policyandgeopoliticsandsustainability(seeFigure4).
themtoranktheimmediaterisksdirectlyaffectingprogressonaviationdecarbonization,accordingto
4
FIGURE
Top10aviation-specificrisksaffectingdecarbonizationprogress
1Availability/costofSAF
2AlignmentofSAFpolicyacrossregionsandlongevityofsubsidies
4
3ImplementationofCORSIA
TraceabilityofsustainabilitycriteriaforSAFfeedstocks
5
Effectivenessofcarbonpricingandemissionstradingschemes
6Availabilityandcostofgreenelectricity,hydrogenandinfrastructure
Availabilityofhydrogenandbattery-electricaircraft
7
Geographicalconcentrationofresources
8
10
9Greenwashingandconsumerscepticism
Availabilityofcarbondioxideremovalsandout-of-sectorcarbonoffsets
●Technology
●Sustainability
●Policyandgeopolitics
Source:WorldEconomicForumindustrysurvey.
GlobalAviationSustainabilityOutlook202511
Technologychallenges
2.1
ICAO’sonline
trackerofSAF
offtakeagreementsshowsthat
thenumberof
agreements,aswellastheirvolumeandaveragetenor,hasbeenreducingsincetheypeakedin2022.
ICAOoffersanonlinetrackerofSAFofftake
AvailabilityandcostofSAF
agreements,whichshowsthatthenumberof
agreements,aswellastheirvolumeandaverage
tenor,hasbeenreducingsincetheypeakedin2022(seeFigure5).4Whiledatashouldbeinterpreted
cautiously,asofftakeagreementsareusually
multi-yearandthusmaynotneedre-signingonayearlybasis,thereisacleardownwardtrendinthewillingnesstoenterlong-termdeals.Thisisparticularlytrueinemergingaviationmarketslookingtogrow,suchasAsiaPacific,theMiddleEastandLatinAmerica,wherecarriersfearthehigherticketpricescouldhaveabigimpactoncompetitivenessatakeygrowthmoment.
ExecutiveshighlightedtheavailabilityandcostofSAFasthebiggestchallengeaffectingprogressondecarbonizingaviationduring2025.Many
airlinestypicallyhighlightSAF’savailabilityand
priceasthekeyobstaclespreventingthemfromsigningfirm,long-termofftakeagreements;
equally,investorsviewsuchofftakeagreementsasa“musthave”beforeprovidingSAFplants
withthecapitaltheyneedtodevelop.The
challengeisthattheairlinebusinessisknownforitssmallmargins–andtheCOVID-19pandemicresultedinsignificantlossesandbankruptcyrisksthatthreatenedthegrowthofthesectorand
exacerbateditstraditionallylowcreditworthiness.
Number,volumesandtenorofSAFofftakeagreements,trackedbyICAO
FIGURE5
ICAOSAFtrackerforofftakeagreements
Number(#)ofofftakeagreements;offtakevolumes(millionlitres);andlength(years)
21,715
22,000
20,000
18,000
35
16,000
14,000
12,000
20
10,000
8,000
6,000
10
4,000
2,000
0
2019
6.3
Offtakelength(years)
5
Source:ICAO.
43
45
40
Offtakevolumes(millionlitres)
Offtakeagreements(#)
28
11,755
30
25
20
15
23
9,217
5
416
2020
4
1,568
2024
5
0
975
2023
2021
2022
6.8
5.2
6.7
4.5
5.9
Offtakelength(years)
●Offtakevolumes(millionlitres)
昌-Numberofagreements
premiumofSAFhasalsobeenreducingthroughout2024,atleastinEurope,wheretheaveragecost
differentialbetweenHEFAandconventionaljetfuelhasfallenfromapproximately2xinSeptember
2023to1.2xinNovember2024.6Wherebalancesheetsallowit,someairlinesaresigninglong-termcontractsforSAFofftakesortakinganequity
stakeindevelopingSAFprojects,demonstratingawillingnesstoinvestandpaytheSAFpremium.
BothSAF’savailabilityandcosts,however,areonapositivetrajectory,atlea
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