2022年大学英语考试真题卷九29测

2022年大学英语考试真题卷九

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1.{{BHTEXT

MeteorologistsroutinelytelIuswhatnextweek*sweatherisIikeIy

tohe,andclimatescientistsdiscusswhatmighthappenin100years.

ChristophSchar,though,venturesdangerouslyclosetothatmiddlerealm,

wherepreviouslyonlytheFarmer1sAlmanacdaredgo:whatwiIInextsummer1

sweatherbelikeFollowinglastyear,stragicheatwave,whichdirectIy

causedthedeathoftensofthousandsofpeopIe,thequestionisofburning

interesttoEuropeans.Scharassertsthatlastsummer9ssweltering

temperaturesshouIdnolongerbethoughtofasextraordinary."The

situationin2002and2003inEurope,wherewehadasummerwithextreme

rainfalIandrecordfIoodingfo11owedbythehottestsummerinhundreds

ofyears,isgoingtobetypicalforfutureweatherpatterns,"hesays.

MostEuropeanshaveprobablyneverreadSchar*sreport(notleast

becauseitwaspubIishedinthescientificjournalNatureinthedead

ofwinter)buttheyseemtobebracingthemseIvesfortheworst.Aspart

ofitsnewnationaI"heat-waveplan",FranceissuedaIeveI-threealert

whentemperaturesinProvencereached34degreesCelsiusthreedaysin

arow;hospitalandrescueworkerswereaskedtoprepareforaninflux

ofpatients.ItaiiangovernmentofficiaIshaveproposedcreatinga

nationaIregistryofpeopIeover65sotheycanbeherdedinto

air-conditionedsupermarketsintheeventofanotherheatwave.LondonJ

smayorhasoffereda100,000poundrewardforanybodywhocancomeup

withapracticalwayofcooIingthecity*sundergroundtrains,where

temperatureshaveIateIyreachednearly40degreesCelsius.(Themoney

hasn*tbeenclaimed.)GIobaIwarmingseemstohavepermanentlyentered

theEuropeanpsyche.

IfthepubIicismoreaware,though,expertsaremoreconfused.When

theIntergovernmentaIPanelonClimateChangehammeredoutitslast

assessmentin2001,scientistspulledtogetherthelatestresearchand

madetheirbestestimateofhowmuchtheEarth,satmospherewouldwarm

duringthenextcentury.Therewasalottheydidn*tknow,buttheywere

confidentthey*dbeabletoplugthegapsintimeforthenextreport,

dueoutin2007.WhentheyexploredthefundamentaIphysicsandchemistry

oftheatmosphere,though,theyfoundsomethingunexpected:thewaythe

atmosphere-and,inparticular,clouds-respondtoincreasinglevelsof

carbonisfarmorecompIexanddifficulttopredictthantheyhadexpected.

"Wethoughtwe*dreducetheuncertainty,butthathasn'thappened,"

saysKevinTrenberth,aclimatescientistattheNationaICenterfor

AtmosphericResearchandaleadauthorofthenextIPCCreport."Aswe

deIvefurtherandfurtherintothescienceandgainabetterunderstanding

ofthetruecompIexityoftheatmosphere,theuncertaintieshavegotten

deeper."

ThisdoesnJtmean,ofcourse,thattheworldisn'twarming.Only

thebiasedorthedeIudeddenythattemperatureshaverisen,andthat

humanactivityhassomethingtodowithit.Thebigquestionthat

scientistshavestruggledwithishowmuchwarmingwiIIoccuroverthe

nextcenturyWithsomuchstillunknownintheclimateequation,there,

snowayoftellingwhetherwarningsofcatastropheareoverblownorif

thingsareevenmoredirethanwethought.

WhydoscientistsIikeScharmakepredictionsBecause,Iike

economists,it'stheirjobtohazardabestguesswiththeresources

athand-nameIy,vastcomputerprogramsthatsimuIatewhattheEarth,

satmospherewiIIdoincertaincircumstances.ThesemodeIsincorporate

alIthelatestresearchintohowtheEarth,satmospherebehaves.But

thereareproblemswiththecomputermodeIs.Theatmosphereisverybig,

butalsoconsistsofamultitudeoftinyinteractionsamongparticles

ofdust,soot,clouddropletsandtracegasesthatcannotbesafeIy

ignored.CurrentmodeIsdon'thavenearlytheresolutiontheyneedto

capturewhatgoesonatsuchsmalIscales.

ScientistsgotaninkIingthatsomethingwasmissingfromthemodeIs

intheearly1990swhentheyranapecuIiarexperiment.Theyhadthe

IeadingmodeIssimuIatewarmingoverthenextcenturyandgotasimiIar

answerfromeach.Thentheyranthemodelsagain-thistimeaccounting

forwhatwasthenknownaboutcloudphysics.

Itcanbeinferredfromthefirstparagraphthat

A.climatescientistsarecontemptuousofweatherforecast.

B.itisaventuretoforecastwhatweatherisliketomorrow.

C.Scharhastheaudacitytodowhatothersseldomdo.

D.Scharhasmadegloomypredictionsonfutureweather.

2.{{B}}TEXTC{{/BJJ

TheUnitedNationswasfoundedtopromotepeace,prosperityandhuman

rights.Itisdoingsomewhatbetteronthefirsttwocountsthanits

criticssometimesmakeout.Thelast,however,hasbeensuchafailure

thatitisthreateningtobringthewholeedificedown.Oncereveredas

thecreatorofalIthegreatuniversalhuman-rightsrulesandinstruments,

the53-memberCommissiononHumanRightshasbeenthoroughlydiscredited.

Ifitcannotbefixeditneedstobescrapped.Initspresentformit

servesonIytomakeamockeryofthecause.

Thereasonforthisissimpleenough.Thepresentcommitteeispacked

withmemberswhoarethemselvesserialabusersofhumanrights.KofiAnnan,

theUNSecretaryGeneral,admitsthattheirmainpurposeinbeingonthe

committeeisnottostrengthenhumanrightsbuttoprotectthemselves

fromcriticism.Atpresent,thesemembersincludeexemplarsofvirtue

suchasZimbabwe,Sudan,Cuba,SaudiArabia,NepalandRussia-a

veritabIerolIcaIIoftheworstoffenders.

Aplanofsortsexiststoreformthismess.Mr.Annancalledforthe

repIacementofthecommission,whichatpresentmeetsforjustsixweeks

onceayear,byaleaner,tougher,year-roundHumanRightsCounciI,which

wouldhereadytoactwheneverseriousabusewasdiscovered,andwhose

membersshouIdhaveasolidrecordonhumanrights.Americaandtheother

Ieadingdemocraciesbackedtheidea.Theserialabusersdidnot.Inthe

wranglingatasummitonwiderUNreforms,Mr.Annan*sbabywasreduced

toaskeleton.Manywonderedwhetheritcouldsurvive.

Amazingly,ithasjust.Thereisnowagreementontheneedforanew

body,onaparwiththeSecurityCounciI,thatwouldmeetseveraltimes

ayearincluding,whennecessary,foremergencies.Butitssize,powers

andcompositionarestillupforgrabs.TheAmericanswantnomorethan

30members,alIwithsolidhuman-rightscredentials,eIectedbya

two-thirdsmajorityoftheGeneralAssembly,alongwitharoutinereview

ofhumanrightsinalI191UNmemberstates.Theabuserswantasbiga

bodyaspossible,eIectedbyasimplemajority,asatpresent,withno

membershipcriteria,andnoautomaticpeerreview.

Anyreformmustnotjustshrinkthecommission,butmustalsochange

thewayinwhichmembersareeIected.Atpresent,regionsusuallyput

forwardaslateofcandidatescorrespondingtotheirallottednumberof

seats,whichtheGeneralAssembIyvotesontothecommissionasablock.

Underonesensibleproposal,regionswouldberequiredtoputforward

morecontestantsthantheirquota.Eachcandidatecountrywouldthen

standseparatelyforeIectionbytheGeneralAssembly.Earlypeerreview

ofalImemberswouldfurtherreducethetemptationforthugstotryto

getseats.Butoppositionisfierce,notonlyfromthemostnotorious

offenders,butaIsofromthosemiddle-rankingoneswhofeartheir

relativelyminorabuseswouldbeputunderthespotIight.

Timingistight.Theold,unreformedcommissionisduetoholditsnext

annuaImeeting.Mr.Annanwantsanewonetobereadytotakeoverby

then.ThatmeansreachingagreementonabIueprintwithinthenextfew

weeks.Ifagreementisstymied,thenext-bestsoIutionwiIIbetowind

theexistingcommissionupaltogether.Humanrightsmattertoomuchfor

theUNtocontinuetoshuntthesubjectofftoacynicaltalkingshop

thathasbecomehometotheworstviolators.Thatjustblackensthe

overa11reputationoftheUN.

WhichofthefollowingisNOTtrueoftheUnitedNations

A.Somemembershaveviolatedhuman-rightrules.

B.Itsreputationhasbeenruinedincertainaspect.

C.Onecommissionhascalledforthalotofviolence.

D.Ithasdonerelativelywellinpromotingpeaceandprosperity.

3.

Questions7and8arebasedonthefollowingnews.Attheendofthe

newsitem,youwi11begiven10secondstoanswereachofthetwoquestions.

NowIistentothenews.

MichaelChertoffdefendshimselfassertingthathemadethedealbecause

A.ArabicterroristswillnotattacktheUSAanymore.

B.itisessentialtomaintainanactivetradingenvironment.

C.thereisnoneedtoblockacompany*scontroloverterminals.

D.itisnotfairtocutoffbusinesswithforeigncompanies.

4.

Inthissectionyouwi11heareverythingONCEONLY.Listencarefully

andthenanswerthequestionsthatfollow.Markthecorrectanswerto

eachquestiononyouranswersheet.

Questions1to5arebasedonaniinterview.Attheendoftheinterview

youwi11begiven10secondstoanswereachofthefolIowingfivequestions.

NowIistentotheinterview.

Accordingtotheinterview,alIofthefollowingaretherolesofprimary

teachersEXCEPT

A.helpingchildrentoacquiregoodhabits.

B.reinforcingwhattheparentsaredoing.

C.startingchildrenreadingandwriting.

D.informingchildrenofdifferentmessages.

5.

InthissectiontherearefourreadingpassagesfollowedbyatotaI

of20mu11ipIe-choicequestions.Readthepassagesandthenmarkyour

answersonyouranswersheet.

{{BDTEXTA{(/B})

TheodoricVoIerhadbeenbroughtup,frominfancytotheconfinesof

middleage,byafondmotherwhosechiefsolicitudehadbeentokeephim

screenedfromwhatshecalledthecoarserrealitiesofIife.Whenshe

diedsheleftTheodoricaloneinaworldthatwasasrealasever,and

agooddealcoarserthanheconsideredithadanyneedtobe.Toaman

ofhistemperamentandupbringingevenasimpleraiIwayjourneywas

crammedwithpettyannoyancesandminordiscords,andashesettIed

himselfdowninasecond-classcompartmentoneSeptembermorninghewas

consciousofruffledfeeIingsandgeneralmentaldiscomposure.

Hebadbeenstayingatacountryvicarage,theinmatesofwhichhad

beencertainlyneitherbrutaInorbacchanalian,buttheirsupervision

ofthedomesticestabIishmenthadbeenofthatlaxorderwhichinvites

disaster.Theponycarriagethatwastotakehimtothestationhadnever

beenproperlyordered,andwhenthemomentforhisdeparturedrewnear,

thehandymanwhoshouIdhaveproducedtherequiredarticlewasnowhere

tobefound.InthisemergencyTheodoric,tohismutebutveryintense

disgust,foundhimselfobiigedtocollaboratewiththevicar*sdaughter

inthetaskofharnessingthepony,whichnecessitatedgropingaboutin

aniIl-lightedoutbuiIdingcalledastabIe,andsme11ingveryIikeone

-exceptinpatcheswhereitsme11edofmice.

AsthetrainglidedoutofthestationTheodoric'snervousimagination

accusedhimselfofexhaIingaweakodourofstableyard,andpossibly

ofdisplayingamouIdystrawortwoonhisunusua11ywe11brushedgarments.

Fortunatelytheonlyotheroccupationofthecompartment,aladyofabout

thesameageashimseIf,seemedinclinedforsIumberratherthanscrutiny;

thetrainwasnotduetostoptilltheterminuswasreached,inabout

anhour*stime,andthecarriagewasoftheoldfashionedsortthatheld

nocommunicationwithacorridor,thereforenofurthertravelIing

companionswereIikeIytointrudeonTheodoric*ssemiprivacy.Andyet

thetrainhadscarcelyattaineditsnormaIspeedbeforehebecame

reIuctantIybutvividlyawarethathewasnotalonewiththeslumbering

lady;hewasnotevenaloneinhisownclothes.

Awarm,creepingmovementoverhisfleshbetrayedtheunweIcomeand

highlyresentedpresence,unseenbutpoignant,ofastrayedmouse,that

hadevidentIydashedintoitspresentretreatduringtheepisodeofthe

ponyharnessing.FurtivestampsandshakesandwiIdlydirectedpinches

failedtodisIodgetheintruder,whosemotto,indeed,seemedtobe

Excelsior;andtheIawfuIoccupantoftheclotheslaybackagainstthe

cushionsandendeavouredrapidlytoevoIvesomemeansforputtinganend

tothedualownership.Theodoricwasgoadedintothemostaudacious

undertakingofhisIife.Crimsoningtothehueofabeetrootandkeeping

anagonisedwatchonhisslumberingfeIlowtraveller,heswiftlyand

noiselesslysecuredtheendsofhisraiIwayrugtotheracksoneither

sideofthecarriage,sothatasubstantiaIcurtainhungathwartthe

compartment.Inthenarrowdressingroomthathehadthusimprovisedhe

proceededwithviolenthastetoextricatehimseIfpartiallyandthemouse

entirelyfromthesurroundingcasingsoftweedandhaIf-wooI.

Astheunrave11edmousegaveawiIdIeaptothefIoor,therug,siipping

itsfasteningateitherend,alsocamedownwithaheart-curdIingflop,

andaImostsimultaneouslytheawakenedsleeperopenedhereyes.Witha

movementaImostquickerthanthemouse1s,Theodoricpouncedontherug

andhauIeditsamplefoldschin-highoverhisdismantIedpersonashe

collapsedintothefarthercornerofthecarriage.Thebloodracedand

beatintheveinsofhisneckandforehead,whilehewaiteddumblyfor

thecommunicationcordtobepuIIed.Thelady,however,contentedherself

withasilentstareatherstrangelymuffIedcompanion.Howmuchhadshe

seen,TheodoricqueriedtohimseIf;andinanycasewhatonearthmust

shethinkofhispresentposture

WhichofthefollowingdoesNOTdescribeTheodoric*sfeeIingwhenhe

wasonthetrain

A.Uneasy.

B.Fretful.

C.Irritated.

D.Slack.

6.{{BJJTEXTD({/B))

IftheFederationofAmericanScientistsmadealistofeducationaI

videogames,youmightexpecttofindOregonTrai,theStoryofConestoga

WagonsTrekkingintotheAmericanWest,orthegeographyfavoriteWhere

intheWorldIsCarmenSandiegoIAnddon,tforgetHaIf-Life2.That'

stheonewhereyouburnalienzombiestodeathwithexpIodingbarrels

offuel.

OK,that*sexaggerating~~butonlyalittle.Whereparentsseehours

wastedinfrontofascreen,thesescientistsseepotentiaI.AnFASstudy

releasedthisweek,titled"HarnessingthePowerofVideoGamesfor

Learning,"reportsthatbest-selIinggamesarebuiltinsurprisingly

pedagogicalways.Playersimproveattheirownpace.Beatingalevel

requiresexperimentation,failureandlearningfrommistakes.Mostnew

gamescanbeplayedonIine,requiringco11aborationandleadership.Game

playispreciselycalibratedtobalancechaIlengeandprogress.It's

astarkcontrasttoatypicalclassroominwhichoneteachertriesto

engage30studentswithprintedinformation."It*sIikehiringan

individuaItutorforeverystudent,"saysFASpresidentHenryKellyof

usingvideogamestoteach,"There'sabigargumentgoingonnowabout

whetherkidsarebeingtestedtoomuchortooIittIe.Inagame,you'

recontinuouslybeingtestedand,youdon'tmindit."

Somecommercialgamesarealreadybeingusedintheclassroom.The

GiviIizationseriesletsusersbuildempiresinancientPersiaandother

historicalperiods,andRclIerCoasterTycoon,whereplayersconstruct

athemepark,combinesphysicsandbusinessmanagement.AndtheU.S.

miIitarymakesextensiveuseofvideosimuIations:theArmyreports7.6

millionusershaveregisteredforAmerica1sArmy,atrainingand

recruitinggame.

ThereportcallsforanewgenerationofeducationaIgamesthatare

asimmersiveandgraphics-intensiveasmegabudgettitlesIikeMaddenNFL

07andBattIefield2142."WhenyoushowachiIdatraditionaIeducationaI

game,they111rolItheireyes,"saysKayHoweI11acoauthorofthestudy.

"ButIdon*tthinktheyrolItheireyesbecauseit*slearning;Ithink

it'sbecausethere,ssuchahugeandobviousgapinquaIitycompared

towhattheypIayathome."Thefederalgovernment,shesays,shouIdclose

thatgapbyunderwritingnewgame-pubIishinghouses.

ButsomeeducationaIobserversfindthevideogamerecommendations

toounorthodox."Thisisreallysilly,“saysChesterE.Finn,president

oftheThomasB.FordhamFoundation,aK-12educationresearchgroupin

Washington."Aretheynextgoingtoproposegovernment-fundedstudies

oftheeducationalvalueofcomicbooks,realityTVshowsandinstant

messaging"Othercriticscontendthereport*srecommendationsshouldn9

tbeseenasacureall."Wethinkit,sagoodideathatthisstuffis

beingexplored,"saysChadColby,aspokesmanfortheDepartmentof

Education."PeopIedotendtolookatthesethingsassiIverbullets,

orafixinthemselves,whenit'sreallyonetooloutofmany.nThe

largerproblemwiththefederation*sideas,Colbysays,isalackof

famiIiaritywithhoweducationfundingworks:only8.3percentofthe

country1stotaleducationbudgetcomesfromthefederalgovernment,and

mostofthatistargetedtowardstudentsinpoverty.

Thestndy*srecommendationsmightbehardtoimpIement:nota11schooI

districtshavecomputersandnetworkscapableofrunninghigh-endgames.

TheFASreportcallsfortheproductionofgamesthatcanbeWeb-based

anddownIoadabIetoPCs,butitmightbelessexpensivetodesigngames

fortheestabIishedconsolesthatmanyfamiIiesaIreadyhaveathome.

"ThesearetechnologiesthatkidsandyoungadultsareIivingwithevery

dayoftheirIives,"saysHowe11."Whydoweexpect”

TheFederationofAmericanScientistsbeIievesthat

A.itisawasteoftimetoplayvideogames.

B.somevideogamesarebeneficialtochildren.

C.suchgamesasHalf-Life2isunforgettable.

D.thefunctionofsomevideogamesisexaggerating.

7.{{BJJTEXT

TheUnitedNationswasfoundedtopromotepeace,prosperityandhuman

rights.Itisdoingsomewhatbetteronthefirsttwocountsthanits

criticssometimesmakeout.Thelast,however,hasbeensuchafailure

thatitisthreateningtobringthewholeedificedown.Oncereveredas

thecreatorofalIthegreatuniversalhuman-rightsrulesandinstruments,

the53-memberCommissiononHumanRightshasbeenthoroughlydiscredited.

Ifitcannotbefixeditneedstobescrapped.Initspresentformit

servesonlytomakeamockeryofthecause.

Thereasonforthisissimpleenough.Thepresentcommitteeispacked

withmemberswhoarethemselvesserialabusersofhumanrights.KofiAnnan,

theUNSecretaryGeneral,admitsthattheirmainpurposeinbeingonthe

committeeisnottostrengthenhumanrightsbuttoprotectthemselves

fromcriticism.Atpresent,thesemembersincludeexemplarsofvirtue

suchasZimbabwe,Sudan,CubafSaudiArabia,NepalandRussia——a

veritablerolIcalIoftheworstoffenders.

Aplanofsortsexiststoreformthismess.Mr.Annancalledforthe

repIacementofthecommission,whichatpresentmeetsforjustsixweeks

onceayear,byaleaner,tougher,year-roundHumanRightsCounciI,which

wouldhereadytoactwheneverseriousabusewasdiscovered,andwhose

membersshouIdhaveasolidrecordonhumanrights.Americaandtheother

Ieadingdemocraciesbackedtheidea.Theserialabusersdidnot.Inthe

wranglingatasummitonwiderUNreforms,Mr.Annan*sbabywasreduced

toaskeIeton.Manywonderedwhetheritcouldsurvive.

Amazingly,ithasjust.Thereisnowagreementontheneedforanew

body,onaparwiththeSecurityCounciI,thatwouldmeetseveraltimes

ayearincluding,whennecessary,foremergencies.Butitssize,powers

andcompositionarestillupforgrabs.TheAmericanswantnomorethan

30members,alIwithsolidhuman-rightscredentials,eIectedbya

two-thirdsmajorityoftheGeneraIAssembly,alongwitharoutinereview

ofhumanrightsinalI191UNmemberstates.Theabuserswantasbiga

bodyaspossible,eIectedbyasimplemajority,asatpresent,withno

membershipcriteria,andnoautomaticpeerreview.

Anyreformmustnotjustshrinkthecommission,butmustalsochange

thewayinwhichmembersareelected.Atpresent,regionsusuallyput

forwardaslateofcandidatescorrespondingtotheirallottednumberof

seats,whichtheGeneraIAssembIyvotesontothecommissionasablock.

Underonesensibleproposal,regionswouldberequiredtoputforward

morecontestantsthantheirquota.Eachcandidatecountrywouldthen

standseparatelyforeIectionbytheGeneralAssembly.Earlypeerreview

ofalImemberswouldfurtherreducethetemptationforthugstotryto

getseats.Butoppositionisfierce,notonlyfromthemostnotorious

offenders,butalsofromthosemiddle-rankingoneswhofeartheir

relativelyminorabuseswouldbeputunderthespotIight.

Timingistight.Theold,unreformedcommissionisduetoholditsnext

annuaImeeting.Mr.Annanwantsanewonetobereadytotakeoverby

then.ThatmeansreachingagreementonabIueprintwithinthenextfew

weeks.Ifagreementisstymied,thenext-bestsoIutionwiIIbetowind

theexistingcommissionupaltogether.Humanrightsmattertoomuchfor

theUNtocontinuetoshuntthesubjectofftoacynicaltalkingshop

thathasbecomehometotheworstviolators.Thatjustblackensthe

overalIreputationoftheUN.

KofiAnnanhopesthatthefuturecommissiononhumanrightsshouIdincIude

A.thosewithouthumanrightsabuse.

B.morethan30members.

C.examplarsofvirtuesuchasSudanandRussia.

D.memberswhichmayfunctioneveryweek.

8.{{BJJTEXTB{{/B}}

MeteorologistsroutinelytelIuswhatnextweek,sweatherisIikeIy

tohe,andclimatescientistsdiscusswhatmighthappenin100years.

ChristophSchar,though,venturesdangerouslyclosetothatmiddlereaIm,

wherepreviouslyonlytheFarmer1sAlmanacdaredgo:whatwiIInextsummer

sweatherbelikeFollowinglastyear*stragicheatwave,whichdirectIy

causedthedeathoftensofthousandsofpeopIe,thequestionisofburning

interesttoEuropeans.Scharassertsthatlastsummer*ssweltering

temperaturesshouIdnolongerbethoughtofasextraordinary."The

situationin2002and2003inEurope,wherewehadasummerwithextreme

rainfalIandrecordfIoodingfo11owedbythehottestsummerinhundreds

ofyears,isgoingtobetypicalforfutureweatherpatterns,"hesays.

MostEuropeanshaveprobablyneverreadSchar'sreport(notleast

becauseitwaspubIishedinthescientificjournalNatureinthedead

ofwinter)buttheyseemtobebracingthemselvesfortheworst.Aspart

ofitsnewnationaI"heat-waveplan",FranceissuedaIeveI-threealert

whentemperaturesinProvencereached34degreesCelsiusthreedaysin

arow;hospitalandrescueworkerswereaskedtoprepareforaninflux

ofpatients.ItaiiangovernmentofficiaIshaveproposedcreatinga

nationaIregistryofpeopleover65sotheycanbeherdedinto

air-conditionedsupermarketsintheeventofanotherheatwave.London1

smayorhasoffereda100,000poundrewardforanybodywhocancomeup

withapracticalwayofcoolingthecity*sundergroundtrains,where

temperatureshaveIateIyreachednearly40degreesCelsius.(Themoney

hasn'tbeenclaimed.)GIobaIwarmingseemstohavepermanentIyentered

theEuropeanpsyche.

IfthepubIicismoreaware,though,expertsaremoreconfused.When

theIntergovernmentaIPanelonClimateChangehammeredoutitslast

assessmentin2001,scientistspulledtogetherthelatestresearchand

madetheirbestestimateofhowmuchtheEarth1satmospherewouldwarm

duringthenextcentury.Therewasalottheydidn'tknow,buttheywere

confidentthey,dbeabletoplugthegapsintimeforthenextreport,

dueoutin2007.WhentheyexploredthefundamentaIphysicsandchemistry

oftheatmospher