亚太地区房地产行业市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.6万达万科恒大碧桂园

INDUSTRIES

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MARKETSRealestateintheAsia-PacificregionCHAPTER

01OverviewValueoflistedrealestatemarketworldwideasofDecember2023,byregion(inbillionU.S.dollars)Globallistedrealestatemarketsize2023,byregionEmergingmarketsDevelopedmarkets1,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000NorthAmerica*AsiaPacificEurope,MiddleEast&AfricaLatinAmerica3Description:NorthAmericawashometothelargestlistedrealestatemarketin2023.TheaggregatemarketsizeofthelistedcommercialrealestatemarketinCanadaandtheUnitedStatesamountedto1.4trillionU.S.dollars.Listedrealestatereferstorealestatecompaniesthatarequotedonstockexchangesandreceiveincomefromrealestateassets.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;December2023Source(s):EPRAValueofrealestateinvestmentintheAsia-Pacificregionfrom2012to2021,byquarter(inbillionU.S.dollars)ValueofrealestateinvestmentAPAC2012-2021,byquarterQ1Q2Q3Q41601401201008060402002012201320142015201620172018201920202021*4Description:ThevalueofrealestateinvestmentsintheAsia-Pacificregionwasestimatedatapproximately140.5billionU.S.dollarsin2021.Thiswasasignificantincreasefrom2020,whenitamountedto108billionU.S.dollars.

ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;2012to2021;*Estimate.ReadmoreSource(s):CBREGroup;RealCapitalAnalytics;estimatesRevenueofrealestateactivitiesinselectedAsia-Pacificcountriesin2022(inbillionU.S.dollars)RealestateactivityrevenueinselectedAsia-Pacificcountries2022RevenueinbillionU.S.dollars600204080100120140SouthKoreaVietnam120.1926.1PhilippinesMalaysiaTaiwan12.368.985.435/statistics/1286641/real-estate-activity-revenue-in-selected-asia-pacific-countriesTheReadmoreNote(s):APACSource(s):IndustryOutlookestimatesthattherevenuefromrealestateactivitiesinSouthKoreawillreachover120billionU.S.dollarsin2022.RevenuefromthissectorinVietnamandthePhilippineswillreacharound26.1and12.4billionrespectively.IndustrialMarketInsightsYear-to-datetransactionvalueofrealestateintheAsia-Pacificregionasofthirdquarterof2023,bypropertytype(inbillionU.S.dollars)YTDtransactionvalueofrealestateAPACQ32023,bypropertytype350300250200150315.29510050031.824.919.39.48.70.9OfficeIndustrialRetailHotelApartmentSeniorhousingand

Incomeproperties

Developmentsitecare6Description:Asofthethirdquarterof2023,thetotalrealestatetransactionvaluewasover410billionU.S.dollarsintheAsia-Pacificregion.OfficerealestatetransactionvalueintheAsia-Pacificregionreached31.8billionU.S.dollarsbytheendofthethirdquarterof2023,whichwasover50percentdecreaseyear-over-year.ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;YTDQ32023Source(s):MSCI;PwC;UrbanLandInstituteDistributionofluxurybrandedrealestateprojectsworldwidein2023,byregionShareofluxurybrandedresidentialrealestateprojectsworldwide2023,byregion45%39.4%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%19.5%12.7%10.3%9.6%4.5%4.1%0%NorthAmericaAsiaPacificEuropeMiddleEastLatinAmericaAfricaCaribbean7Description:Whenitcomestoluxurybrandedrealestateprojectsworldwide,NorthAmericawasthelargestmarketin2023.Thesourcedefinesthistypeofrealestateasresidentialpropertiesassociatedwithanestablishedbrand.Nearly40percentoftheprojectsinoperationorinthedevelopmentpipelinewereinNorthAmerica.TheAsia-Pacificregioncamenextatabout20percent,whiletheEuropeanregionaccountedforover12percentoftheprojects.TheMiddleEastandLatinAmericaboth[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023Source(s):KnightFrankGlobalRealEstateSustainabilityBenchmark(GRESB)scoreofrealestatecompaniesworldwidein2023,byregionGRESBscoreofrealestatecompaniesworldwide2023,byregionOceaniaGloballydiversifiedAsiaEuropeAmericas1009080706050403020100Management*DevelopmentofnewprojectsPerformanceofstandinginvestments8Description:Realestatecompaniesworldwideexcelledintheirsustainablemanagementpracticesin2023,basedondatafromtheGRESB.Conversely,allregionsscoredlowestintermsofthesustainabilityperformanceofstandinginvestments.Asiawastheregionwiththehighestperformancescore,amountingto74outof100.GlobalRealEstateSustainabilityBenchmark(GRESB)isanindustry-ledorganizationthatcollects,validates,scores,andbenchmarksESGperformance.ESGbenchmarkinghas[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023;GRESBbuildings;*Themanagementscoreisanaveragebetweenthemanagementscorefordevelopmentandmanagementscoreforperformance

ReadmoreSource(s):GRESBCHAPTER

02OfficerealestateGradeAofficerealestatenetabsorptionintheAsia-Pacificregionfrom2014to2021withforecaststo2023(inmillionsquarefeet)GradeAofficerealestatenetabsorptionAPAC2014-202310091.5879080706050403020100838379.57574595831.520142015201620172018201920202021*2022**2023**10Description:GradeAofficerealestatenetabsorptionintheAsia-Pacificregionwasestimatedtoreach59millionsquarefeetin2021.Itwasabeginningtorecoveryafterofficerealestateoccupancytookabighitin2020.GradeAofficenetabsorptioninAPACwaspredictedtoreachthepre-pandemiclevelby2023.ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;2014to2021;*Estimate.**Forecast.ReadmoreSource(s):Cushman&Wakefield;Moody's;estimatesAnnualoccupancycostofprimeofficerealestatepersquarefootintheAsia-Pacificregioninfourthquarterof2023,bycity(inU.Sdollars)AnnualoccupancycostofprimeofficerealestatepersqftAPACQ42023,bycityCostinU.S.dollarspersquarefoot020406080100120140160180HongKongSingaporeSydney160116.796.8TokyoSeoul86.186.1DelhiNCRMumbaiHoChiMinhCityBeijing78.370.47069.9ShanghaiPerthBrisbaneMelbourne58.957.156.356.311Description:Inthefourthquarterof2023,primeofficeannualrentalratewas160U.S.dollarspersquarefootinHongKong,thehighestintheAsia-Pacificregion.Incomparison,theannualoccupancycostofprimeofficerealestateinKualaLumpurwas18.4U.S.dollarspersquarefootasofthefourthquarterof2023.ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;asofJanuary17,2024Source(s):KnightFrankVacancyrateofprimeofficerealestateintheAsia-Pacificregioninfourthquarterof2023,bycityVacancyrateofprimeofficerealestateAPACQ42023,bycityVacancyrate15%0%5%10%20%25%30%35%KualaLumpurJakarta31.3%25.2%24.3%ShenzhenMumbaiPhnomPenhShanghaiBangkok20.4%19.5%19.2%19.2%18.4%BeijingManila16.4%BengaluruMelbournePerth15.1%14.2%12.9%12.8%HoChiMinhCity12Description:Inthefourthquarterof2023,theprimeofficevacancyrateinKualaLumpurwas31.3percent.Incomparison,thevacancyrateofprimeofficerealestatewasunderonepercentinSeoulduringthesameperiod.

ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;asofJanuary17,2024Source(s):KnightFrankForecastedofficerealestatestockgrowthintheAsia-Pacificregionfrom2023to2025,bycityForecastedofficerealestatestockgrowthAPAC2023-2025,bycityNewsupplyasashareofcurrentstock40%

50%0%10%20%30%60%70%80%90%100%PhnomPenhGuangzhouShenzhenHoChiMinhCityTaipei88%57.3%44.4%42.4%36.2%34.7%BangkokBeijingShanghai20.2%18.5%NewDelhiKualaLumpurBrisbane14%13.5%12.1%11.2%9.7%BengaluruManila13Description:OfficerealestatestockinPhnomPenhwasprojectedtogrowby88percentby2025comparedtothelastquarterof2022.Incomparison,officerealestatestockinHongKongwasforecasttoincreaseby0.7percentinthesameperiod.

ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;Q42022Source(s):KnightFrankCitiesmostlikelytoseeofficerentalgrowthintheAsia-Pacificregionin2024,bycityCitiesmostlikelytoseeofficerentalgrowthAPAC2024,bycityIndexscore(0-9)30124567SingaporeSydney6.246.095.985.96SeoulTokyoOsaka5.735.7MelbourneBengaluruMumbai5.585.555.44BangkokManila5.425.41NewDelhiHoChiMinhCityKualaLumpur5.335.3314Description:Accordingtoasurveyfrom2023,Singaporewasthecitymostlikelytoseeofficerentalgrowthin2024.Incomparison,second-tiercitiesinChinawerelesslikelytoseeofficerentalgrowthin2024.

ReadmoreNote(s):Asia;2023;203respondentsSource(s):PwC;UrbanLandInstituteCHAPTER

03CommercialrealestateMediancaprateofinstitutionalgradeandtraditionallogisticsfacilitiesintheAsia-PacificregionasofSeptember2023,bycityInstitutionalgradeandtraditionallogisticscaprateinAPAC2023,bycityCaprateTraditionalInstitutionalgrade501234678910Gurgaon,IndiaMumbai,IndiaBengaluru,IndiaSingaporeAuckland,NewZealandPerth,AustraliaBrisbane,AustraliaMelbourne,AustraliaSeoul,SouthKoreaSydney,AustraliaGuangzhou,ChinaShenzhen,China16Description:Accordingtoasurveyfrom2023,traditionallogisticsfacilitiesinIndiancitiessuchasMumbaiandGurgaonhadanaveragecaprateof8.63.Incomparison,thecaprateoftraditionallogisticsfacilitiesinTaipeiwas3.75in2023.ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;October3to17,2022;investmentandvaluationprofessionalsSource(s):CBREGroupMediancaprateofshoppingmallsintheAsia-PacificregionasofSeptember2023,bycityandlocationShoppingmallcaprateinAPAC2023,bycityandlocationCaprateDecentrelised3Corelocations401256789Bengaluru,IndiaMumbai,IndiaGurgaon,IndiaAuckland,NewZealandPerth,AustraliaBrisbane,AustraliaSydney,AustraliaMelbourne,AustraliaSeoul,SouthKoreaShanghai,ChinaBeijing,ChinaShenzhen,China17Description:Accordingtoasurveyfrom2023,shoppingmallsinIndiancitiessuchasBengaluru,Mumbai,andGurgaonhadanaveragecaprateof8.25incorelocations.Incomparison,theaveragecaprateofshoppingmallsinTaipeiwasaroundthreeinSeptember2023.ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;October3to17,2023;investmentandvaluationprofessionalsSource(s):CBREGroupMediancaprateofhotelsintheAsia-PacificregionasofSeptember2023,bycityHotelcaprateinAPAC2023,bycityCaprate0123456789DaNang,VietnamPhuket,ThailandAuckland,NewZealandHanoi,VietnamHoChiMinhCity,VietnamBangkok,ThailandSeoul,SouthKoreaMelbourne,AustraliaBeijing,ChinaShanghai,ChinaSydney,AustraliaHongKongSingaporeOsaka,JapanTokyo,Japan18Description:Accordingtoasurveyconductedin2022,hotelsinDaNanghadacaprateof8.5.Incomparison,thecaprateofhotelsinTokyowas3.63asofSeptember2022.

ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;October3to17,2023;investmentandvaluationprofessionalsSource(s):CBREGroupAnnualrentalgrowthoflogisticsrealestateworldwidefrom1stquarter2019to1stquarter2023,byregionLogisticsrealestaterentalgrowthworldwide2019-2023,byregionNorthAmericaGlobalEuropeAsiaPacific25%20%15%10%5%0%2019202020212022202319Description:Rentsoflogisticsrealestateincreasedfasterthaneverbeforebetweenthefirstquarterof2022andthefirstquarterof2023.Globally,theincreasewas13percent,butinNorthAmerica,itreachedalmost22percent.Supplychaindisruptionsduringthecoronaviruscrisisandtheriseofe-commercehavehighlightedtheimportanceofsecuringsupplychainsaroundtheworld.Asaresult,thesectorhasbeenenjoyingstrongdemandandincreasedinvestmentactivity.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2019to2023;asofQ1ofeachyearSource(s):JLLYear-on-yearrentalgrowthratesinlogisticsrealestateintheAsia-Pacificregioninthesecondhalfof2022,bycityYear-on-yearrentalgrowthratesinlogisticsrealestateAPACH22022,bycityYear-on-yeargrowthrate0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%SydneyMelbourneManila29.6%20.4%17%Auckland16.7%Brisbane15.5%Mumbai9.3%Singapore8.7%BengaluruDelhi-NCRGreaterKualaLumpurHongKongShanghai6.4%5.9%5.3%3.6%2.7%2.5%GreaterJakarta20Description:Inthesecondhalfof2022,Sydneyshowedthehighestyear-on-yearrentalgrowthrateinlogisticsrealestateintheAsia-Pacificregion,atanearly30percentincrease.Incontrast,Bangkokexperiencedadecreaseof0.1percentintheyear-on-yearrentalgrowthrateinlogisticsrealestateasofthesecondhalfof2022.ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;H22022Source(s):KnightFrankCHAPTER

04ResidentialrealestateRentindexscoreofselectedmegacitiesacrosstheAsia-Pacificregionin2024,bycityRentindexscoreofmegacitiesAPAC2024,bycityIndexscore15051020253035Shanghai,ChinaTokyo,Japan30.729.329.1Seoul,SouthKoreaBeijing,China26.4Shenzhen,ChinaMumbai,India19.31918.2Bangkok,ThailandManila,PhilippinesOsaka,Japan15.913.713.312.912.8Guangzhou,ChinaHangzhou.ChinaJakarta,Indonesia22Description:In2024,Shanghaihadarentindexscoreof30.7,makingitthehighestscoreoftheAsiaPacificmegacities.Contrastingly,Jakartahadarentindexscoreof12.8in2024.ReadmoreNote(s):APAC;2024Source(s):NumbeoAveragemonthlyrentforaonebedroomapartmentinmegacitiesintheAsia-Pacificregionin2024,bycity(inU.S.dollars)AveragemonthlyrentforonebedroomapartmentinmegacitiesAPAC2024,bycityAveragemonthlyrentinU.S.dollars02004006008001,0001,200Shanghai,ChinaBeijing,China1,030.74958.51951.43Tokyo,JapanSeoul,SouthKoreaBangkok,ThailandMumbai,India858.58645.08588.63559.62535.61508.97491.14Hangzhou,ChinaOsaka,JapanHoChiMinhCity,VietnamManila,PhilippinesJakarta,IndonesiaGuangzhou,ChinaBangalore,India437.94425.42329.6423Description:AsofMarch2024,theaveragerentforaone-bedroomapartmentinShanghaiwasapproximately1,030.74U.S.dollarspermonth.Incomparison,theaveragemonthlyrentforaone-bedroomapartmentinKarachiwasapproximately106.96U.S.dollarsasofMarch2024.ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;asofMarch21,2024Source(s):NumbeoMortgageinterestratesinselectedAsia-Pacificcountriesin2024MortgageinterestratesAPAC2024,bycountryMortgageinterestrate0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%Vanuatu(Q22023)Nepal(Feb2024)16.25%11.61%Bhutan(Dec2023)10.54%10.5%Bangladesh(Dec2023)Australia(Jan2024)NewZealand(Jan2024)SouthKorea(Dec2023)7.81%7.59%4.16%24Description:AmongthereportedAsia-Pacificcountries,SouthKoreahadthelowestmortgageinterestrateof4.16percentasofDecember2023.NewZealandandAustraliahadthenextlowestmortgageinterestrates,at7.59and7.81percent,respectively,asofJanuary2024.ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,AustraliaandOceania,APAC;2024Source(s):CHAPTER

05NicherealestateLeadingdatacentermarketsbylive,underconstruction,committed,andearlystagedatacenterpowersupplyintheAsiaPacificregioninfirstquarterof2023,bycity(inmegawatts)DatacenterpowersupplypipelineAPACQ12023,bycitySupplyinmegawattsLiveUndercosntruction1,500CommittedEarlystage05001,0002,0002,5003,0003,500TokyoShanghaiMumbaiSydneySeoulSingaporeHongKongBangkokKualaLumpur26/statistics/1232347/data-centers-power-supply-under-construction-live-and-phased-power-supply-apacInthefirstquarterof2022,TokyowasthelargestdatacentermarketintheAsia-Pacificregion,withlivepowersupplycapacityofroughly1017megawatts,260megawattsunderconstruction,1229megawattscommitted,and461megawattsinearlystage.ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;Q12023Source(s):DCByte;KnightFrankMediancaprateofdatacentersintheAsia-PacificregionasofSeptember2023,bycityDatacentercaprateinAPAC2023,bycityCaprate401235678910Beijing(satellitecities),ChinaShanghai(satellitecities),ChinaGurgaon,IndiaBengaluru,IndiaMumbai,IndiaBeijing(downtown),ChinaShanghai(downtown),ChinaSingaporeSeoul,SouthKoreaMelbourne,AustraliaSydney,AustraliaOsaka,JapanTokyo,JapanHongKong27Description:Accordingtoasurveyfrom2022,datacentersinsatellitecitiesofBeijingandShanghaihadamediancaprateof9.25.Incomparison,thecaprateofdatacentersinHongKongwas4.38asofSeptember2023.

ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;October3to17,2023;investmentandvaluationprofessionalsSource(s):CBREGroupDatacentermarketsizeintheAsia-Pacificregioninthefirsthalfof2023,bycity(inmegawatts)DatacentermarketsizeAPACH12023,bycityMarketsizeinmegawatts800

1,00002004006001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000BeijingSingaporeTokyo1,799876865ShanghaiSydney725667HongKongMumbaiSeoul417380330Osaka241MelbourneJakartelhiKualaLumpurChennai5728Description:Asofthefirsthalfof2023,BeijinghadthelargestdatacentermarketintheAsia-Pacificregion,withacapacityof1799megawatts.Incomparison,Chennaihaddatacentermarketof57megawattsasofthefirsthalfof2023.ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;H12023Source(s):PwC;UrbanLandInstituteCHAPTER

06OutlookCommercialrealestateprospectsintheAsia-Pacificregionin2023,bypropertytypeCommercialrealestateprospectsAPAC2023,bypropertytypeIndexscore(1-9)30124567Industrial/distribution6.59Multifamily/rentedresidential6.16HotelsOffice5.475.195.15Newfor-salehousingRetail4.9830Description:Accordingtoasurveyfrom2022,industrialrealestatehadthebestprospectsamongcommercialpropertiesintheAsia-Pacificregionin2023.Comparatively,retailrealestatewaspredictedtohavelessthanfairprospectsin2023.

ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,APAC;2022;334respondentsSource(s):PwC;UrbanLandInstituteRealestateinvestmentprospectsintheAsia-Pacificregionin2024,bycityRealestateinvestmentprospectsAPAC2024,bycityIndexscore01234567TokyoSydney6.626.32Osaka6.035.95SingaporeMelbourneSeoul5.795.77NewDelhiHoChiMinhCityMumbai4.954.884.87BangkokShenzhenShanghai4.674.644.554.53KualaLumpur31/statistics/1286778/apac-real-estate-investment-prospects-by-cityAccordingtoasurveyamongrealestateinvestorsin2023,TokyowouldhavethebestinvestmentprospectsamongAsia-Pacificcitiesin2024withanindexscoreof6.62.Sydneywasselectedtohaveseco