内容金融2 chap3chapter3第三章

第三Chapter第三ChapterFinancialStatementsAnalysisandLong-TermPlanning财务报表分析和长期计3-KeyConceptsandSkillsKeyConceptsandSkills•KnowhowtostandardizefinancialstatementsforKnowhowtocomputeandinterpretimportantfinancialBeabletodevelopafinancialplanusingthepercentageofsalesapproachUnderstandhowcapitalstructureanddividendpoliciesaffectafirm’sabilitytogrow•••3-ChapterChapterOutline章节内FinancialStatementsAnalysisRatioAnalysisTheDuPontIdentity ExternalFinancingandGrowth3-3.1FinancialStatementsAnalysis财务报3.1FinancialStatementsAnalysis财务报表分••••3-3.1FinancialStatementsAnalysis3.1FinancialStatementsAnalysis财务报表分••••••3-3-3-•（Net–•（Net–––EBITDA=EBIT+折旧+摊3-3-3-3.2RatioAnalysis比3.2RatioAnalysis比率分RatiosalsoallowforbettercomparisonthroughtimeorbetweenAswelookateachratio,ask在我们看每一比率时请自问••––Howistheratiocomputed?Whatistheratiotryingtomeasureand这个比率用来度量什么？为什么Whatistheunitofmeasurement度量的单位是什么？Whatdoesthevalueindicate?它的数值代表着什么？Howcanweimprovethecompany’sratio?我们能够如何改善公司的比率–––3-•Assetmanagementorturnover••••3-Short-termsolvencyorShort-termsolvencyorliquidity•CurrentRatio=CA/流动比率=流动资产/流动负708/540=1.31QuickRatio=(CA–Inventory)/速动比率=（流动资产-存货）/流动(708-422)/540=.53CashRatioCashCL现金比率=现金/98/540=.18••3-ComputingLeverageRatiosComputingLeverageRatios•TotalDebtRatio=(TA–TE)/负债比率=（总资产-总权益）/总资–(3588-2591)/3588=Debt/Equity=TD/负债权益比=总负债/总权–(3588–2591)/2591=EquityMultiplier=TA/TE=1+权益乘数=总资产/总权益=1+负债权益–1+.385=••3-ComputingCoverageRatiosComputingCoverageRatios计算覆盖范围比•TimesInterestEarned=EBIT/利息倍数=EBIT/利–691/141=4.9CashCoverage=(EBIT+DepreciationAmortization)/现金对利息的保障倍数（息税前利润+折旧和摊销）/利–(691+276)/141=6.9•3-AssetmanagementorturnoverAssetmanagementorturnover资产管理情况或周转••––––––3-ComputingInventoryComputingInventory•InventoryTurnover=CostofGoodsSold存货周转率=产品销售成本/存–1344/422=3.2Days’SalesinInventory=365/Inventory存货周转天数=365/存货周转–365/3.2=114•3- Ratios计算应 Ratios计算应收账款比•应收账款周转率=销售额/应收账–2311/188=12.3Days’SalesinReceivables=365/Receivables应收账款周转天数=365/应收账款周转–365/12.3=30•3-ComputingTotalAssetComputingTotalAssetTurnover计算总资产周转•TotalAssetTurnover=Sales/Total总资产周转率=销售额/总资–2311/3588=.64–ItisnotunusualforTAT<1,especiallyifafirmhasalargeamountoffixedassets.•资本密集度=总资产/销售3-ComputingProfitabilityMeasures•ComputingProfitabilityMeasures•ProfitMargin=NetIncome/销售利润率=净利润/销售–363/2311=ReturnonAssets(ROA)=NetIncome/Total资产收益率=净利润/总资–363/3588=ReturnonEquity(ROE)=NetIncome/Total权益收益率=净利润/总权–363/2591=EBITDAMargin=EBITDA/摊销前利润率=净利润/销售–967/2311=•••3-ComputingMarketValue•MarketCapitalization$88persharexComputingMarketValue•MarketCapitalization$88persharex33millionshares2904million市值=$88每股x3300万股PERatio=Pricepershare/Earningsper•–88/11=8•Market-to-bookratio=marketvaluepershare/bookvalueper–88/(2591/33)=1.12•EnterpriseValue(EV)=Marketcapitalization+Marketvalueofinterestbearingdebt–cash–2904+(196+457)–98=•EVMultipleEVEBITDA企业价值乘数=企业价值/–3465/967=3.63-UsingFinancialStatements•RatiosUsingFinancialStatements•Ratiosarenotveryhelpfulbythemselves:theytobecomparedtoTime-TrendAnalysis–Usedtoseehowthefirm’sperformanceischangingPeerGroupAnalysis组别分••–ComparetosimilarcompaniesorwithinSICandNAICScodesSIC和NAICS–3-3.3TheDuPontIdentity3.3TheDuPontIdentity••ROENITE权益收益率=净利润/总权ROE=(NI/TE)(TA/ROE=(NI/TA)(TA/TE)=ROA*•–ROE=(NI/TA)(TA/TE)(Sales/ROE=(NI/Sales)(Sales/TA)(TA/TE)ROE=PM*TAT*权益收益率=销售利润率*总资产周转率*––3-3.3TheDu3.3TheDuPontIdentity•杜邦恒等式说明，ROE受三个方面影响1.经营的效率（以销售利润率度量2.资产运用的效率（以总资产周转率度量3.财务杠杆（以权益乘数度量可以从以上三个方面分解两个不同ROE的差••3- ROE=PM*TAT*权益收益率=销售利润率*总资产周转率*–Profitmarginisameasureofthefirm’soperatingefficiencyhowwellitcontrolsTotalassetturnoverisameasureofthefirm’sassetuseefficiency–howwellitmanagesitsassets.Equitymultiplierisameasureofthefirm’sfinancial权益乘数是公司财务杠杆的测量––3-•ROA•ROA=10.1%andEM=资产收益率及–ROE=10.1%*1.385=权益收益率=10.1*1.385PM=15.7%andTAT=•销售利润率15.7%总资产周转率=–ROE=15.7%*0.64*1.385=权益收益率15.7*0.64*1.3853-DuDuPontIdentity3-PotentialProblems财务报表PotentialProblems财务报表分析潜在问•Thereisnounderlyingtheory,sothereisnowaytoknowratiosaremostBenchmarkingisdifficultfordiversifiedfirms.Globalizationandinternationalcompetitionmakescomparisonmoredifficultbecauseofdifferencesinaccountingregulations.由于会计制度的不同，全球化国际性的竞争使得比较更加困难Firmsusevaryingaccounting不同的企业采用不同的会计处理方法•••••3-3.4FinancialModels3.4FinancialModels财务模长期财务计划是财务报表分析的又一个要用••可以根据财务计划模型可以生成预估的务报3-一个简单的财务模••一个简单的财务模••例：Computerfield公司最近一年的财务报表如1000美800美200美销售收资产500美250美250美500美负总总额500美3-一个简单一个简单的财务模•公司的销售利润率是20％，从未分配过股利，Computerfield公司的财务3-一个简单的财务模•一个简单的财务模•1200600美—600美300美300美600美3-一个简单的财务模一个简单的财务模•••3-Ingredients财务计划成Ingredients财务计划成•SalesForecast–manycashflowsdependdirectlyontheofsales(oftenestimatesalesgrowthProFormaStatements–settinguptheplanasprojected(proforma)financialstatementsallowsforconsistencyandeaseofAssetRequirements–theadditionalassetsthatwillberequiredtomeetsalesprojections••3-PlanningIngredients财务计划PlanningIngredients财务计划成•FinancialRequirements–theamountofneededtopayfortherequired财务需求—支付所需资产的财务数量需PlugVariable–determinedbymanagementdecisionsaboutwhattypeoffinancingwillbeused(makesthebalancesheetbalance)EconomicAssumptions–explicitassumptionsaboutthecomingeconomicenvironment经济假设—对未来经济环境的清晰假••3-•Someitemsvarydirectlywithsales,othersdoIncomeStatement•–Costsmayvarydirectlywithsales-ifthisisthecase,thentheprofitmarginisconstantDepreciationandinterestexpensemaynotvarydirectlywithsales–ifthisisthecase,thentheprofitmarginisnotconstantDividendsareamanagementdecisionandgenerallydonotvarydirectlywithsales–thisaffectsadditionstoretainedearnings––3-PercentofSalesApproach•BalancePercentofSalesApproach•BalanceSheet Initiallyassumeallassets,includingfixed,varydirectlywith–AccountspayablealsonormallyvarydirectlywithNotespayable,long-termdebt,andequitygenerallydonotvarywithsalesbecausetheydependonmanagementdecisionsaboutcapitalstructure.Thechangeintheretainedearningsportionofequitywillcomefromthedividenddecision.权益中的留存收益的改变源自股利决策。––•ExternalFinancingNeeded(EFN Thedifferencebetweentheforecastedincreaseinassetsandtheforecastedincreaseinliabilitiesandequity.3-Rosengarten公司计划未来销售额增长当前利润表和预测利润3-Rosengarten公司计划未来销售额增长当前的资产负债3-Rosengarten公司计划未Rosengarten公司计划未来销售额增长从预测利润表到预测资产负债 （retentionrate）=1股利支付率 =7501853-PercentofSalesandEFN•PercentofSalesandEFN•ExternalFinancingNeeded(EFN)canalsobecalculatedas:外部融资需求也可采用如下计算：•AssetsSalesSponLiabΔSales(PMProjectedSales)(1d(3250)(0.3250)(0.1312503-Rosengarten公司计划未来销售额增长预测的资产负债3-Rosengarten公司需Rosengarten公司需要565美元的新融•可以通过增加$225短期借款、$340长期借款融3-3.5ExternalFinancing3.5ExternalFinancingandGrowth外部融资和增•Asthegrowthrateincreases,theinternalfinancingwillnotbeenough,andthefirmwillhavetogotothecapitalmarketsforExaminingtherelationshipbetweengrowthandexternalfinancingrequiredisausefultoolinfinancialplanning.••3-例子例子：HoffmanCo.预计销售额增长假设流动负债不发生变3-例子例子：HoffmanCo.预计销售额增长3-表3－17Hoffman公司的增长率与预计假设资金缺口由增加负债来完表3－17Hoffman公司的增长率与预计假设资金缺口由增加负债来完EFN（美元00权53-表3表3－17Hoffman公司的增长率与预计3-3.523.523-•Theinternal•Theinternalgrowthratetellsushowmuchthefirmgrowassetsusingretainedearningsastheonlysourceoffinancing.UsingtheinformationfromtheHoffman•–ROA=66/500=资产收益率66500b=44/66=利润再投资额44/66ROA1-ROA.132InternalGrowthRate–1.1323-内部增长率的内部增长率的推•又Projectedsales=sales×(1+IGR),PM=NI/salesNI=留存收3-GrowthRate可持续增长•ThesustainableGrowthRate可持续增长•Thesustainablegrowthratetellsushowmuchthefirmgrowbyusinginternallygeneratedfundsandissuingdebttomaintainaconstantdebtratio.•ROE1-ROE.264–ROE=66/250=权益收益率66250b=利润再投资额44/66–1.2643-可持续增长率可持续增长率的推•根据可持续增长率，EFN=0，又Projected×(1+SGR),PM=NI/salesNI=留存收益增加额+3-3-3-DeterminantsofGrowth增长DeterminantsofGrowth增长的决定因•Profitmargin–operating销售利润率—营业效Totalassetturnover–assetuse总资产周转率—资产使用效Financialleverage–choiceofoptimaldebt财务杠杆—最优负债比率的选Dividendpolicy–choiceofhowmuchtopaytoshareholdersversusreinvestinginthefirm•••3-3.6SomeCaveats一3.6SomeCaveats一些说•FinancialplanningmodelsdonotindicatewhichpolicesaretheModelsaresimplificationsofreality,andtheworldcanchangeinunexpectedways.Withoutsomesortofplanthefirmmayfinditselfadriftinaseaofchangewithoutarudderforguidance.••3-QuickQuiz小测QuickQuiz小测Howdoyoustandardizebalancesheetsandincome如何标准化资产负债表和利润表?Whatarethemajorcategoriesoffinancial财务比率的主要种类有哪些Howdoyoucomputetheratioswithineach你如何计算每一种类内的比率Whataresomeoftheproblemsassociatedwithfinancialstatementa