可转债策略思考：渐入佳境

▍转债策略思考：渐入佳境上周转债市场跟随正股市场上涨，成交额有所上升。54月较弱的走势。另一方面，6月以来国内超预期降息强化了市场的政策预期。中美关系短暂缓和，宏观流动性环境好转，市场正处于相对底部位置。大金融板块；二是高端制造相关方向，围绕政策推动和业绩兑现预期，建议关注半导体、和一带一路相关方向。（20230612）中提出可以积极看待市场，在无风险利率持续下行的背市场仍在佳境之中。高弹性组合建议重点关注：伯特转债、金诚转债、三花转债、龙净转债、九强转债、惠城转债、巨星转债、一品转债、精测转债、科思转债、鼎胜转债。稳健弹性组合建议关注：敖东转债、游族转债、润建转债、法本转债、柳工转2、宙邦转债、中银转债、淳中转债、川投转债。▍市场回顾二级市场转债市场小幅上涨。408.880.78%；可转债指数1734.291508.883.32%766.50132.712.10%94.802.23%。上周在496支可交易转债中，382支上涨，0支平盘，114支下跌，其中超达转债（7%（%（6%（-%（-7.69%）（-7.45%）（337.78亿亿）和超达转债（235.16亿）居前。转债正股小幅上涨。3273.331.30%，深证成指收于11306.534.75%10108.7712.78%。中信证券0个一级行业7个上涨3（2%（%电力设备及新能源（%）领涨，电力及公用事业（-%、银行（-%）和石油石化（-0.32%）跌幅较大。上周在9422（7%、（%（6%（-%（-%）和华体科技（-8.56%）领跌。表1：可转债市场相关指数表现指数收盘点位周变化（%）YTD(%)上证综合3273.331.305.96深证成指11306.534.752.64沪深3003963.353.302.37中小板指7421.964.951.11创业板指2270.065.93-3.27道琼斯工业指数34299.121.253.48标准普尔指数4409.592.5814.85纳斯达克指数13689.573.2530.79中证转债指数408.880.784.13可转债指数1734.292.275.82可转债预案指数1508.883.328.76资料来源：，一级市场上周共6家公司发布可转债发行预案：汇成股份、安克创新、天宇股份、航宇科技、金富科技、德才股份。▍风险因素市场流动性大幅波动，宏观经济增速不如预期，无风险利率大幅波动，正股股价超预期波动。▍重要图表备忘图1：中证转指数等权转指数与转债案指数 图2：转债市总成额（亿/日）中证转债 可转债数 可转债案指

2500.004504003503002017-012017-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-072023-01资料来源：，

2,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,000800600

资料来源：，图3：加权YTM（%） 图4：加权纯溢价（%）3 40 20(1) (2) 10(3) 52017-012017-052017-092018-012017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-05资料来源：，。注：计算样本使用进入转股期的转债。

资料来源：，图5：中信证券一级行业走势（%）1086420(2)食品饮料食品饮料家电传媒电子建材商贸零售纺织服装交通运输房地产石资料来源：，图6：不同阈值股性估值95_115 90_115 整体平股性值 余额加股性值70.0060.0050.0040.0030.0020.0010.000.00资料来源：，。注：计算样本使用进入转股期的转债，95_115股性估值和90_115股性估值进一步剔除余额小于3亿的转债。图7：债性估值YTM利差均值 YTM利差大于0均值 YTM利差余额加权1,2001,00080060040020002017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-012Wind公司代码公司名称 方案进度预案公告日发行规模(亿元)发行期限(年)688403.SH汇成股份 董事会案2023-06-1712.006300866.SZ安克创新 董事会案2023-06-1711.056300702.SZ天宇股份 董事会案2023-06-1714.006688239.SH航宇科技 董事会案2023-06-166.676003018.SZ金富科技 董事会案2023-06-146.006605287.SH德才股份 董事会案2023-06-138.506603289.SH泰瑞机器 董事会案2023-06-093.806600248.SH陕西建工 董事会案2023-06-0835.006688393.SH安必平 董事会案2023-05-303.006002600.SZ领益智造 股东大通过2023-05-2736.966002056.SZ横店东磁 股东大通过2023-05-2632.006002384.SZ东山精密 股东大通过2023-05-2648.006300488.SZ恒锋工具 股东大通过2023-05-236.206603197.SH保隆科技 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09-075.506605077.SH华康股份股东大会通过2022-09-0613.256688311.SH盟升电子发审委通过2022-09-033.006603937.SH丽岛新材股东大会通过2022-09-033.006605166.SH聚合顺股东大会通过2022-09-013.386600556.SH天下秀股东大会通过2022-09-0114.006603906.SH龙蟠科技股东大会通过2022-08-3021.006603707.SH健友股份股东大会通过2022-08-309.406605033.SH美邦股份股东大会通过2022-08-305.306688799.SH华纳药厂证监会核准2022-08-306.916300980.SZ祥源新材证监会核准2022-08-294.606688690.SH纳微科技股东大会通过2022-08-296.406603165.SH荣晟环保发审委通过2022-08-275.766002459.SZ晶澳科技证监会核准2022-08-2689.606601137.SH博威合金股东大会通过2022-08-2317.006002015.SZ协鑫能科股东大会通过2022-08-1626.496000628.SZ高新发展发审委通过2022-08-166.916002135.SZ东南网架发审委通过2022-08-1320.006603730.SH岱美股份发审委通过2022-08-129.086300142.SZ沃森生物股东大会通过2022-08-1112.356603939.SH益丰药房股东大会通过2022-08-1125.476688533.SH上声电子证监会核准2022-08-115.206688589.SH力合微证监会核准2022-08-103.806300644.SZ南京聚隆证监会核准2022-08-062.196300428.SZ立中集团发审委通过2022-08-019.006603018.SH华设集团发审委通过2022-07-304.006公司代码公司名称方案进度预案公告日发行规模(亿元)发行期限(年)300829.SZ金丹科技证监会核准2022-07-267.006000906.SZ浙商中拓股东大会通过2022-07-2210.386600888.SH新疆众和发审委通过2022-07-1513.756603060.SH国检集团股东大会通过2022-06-308.006000012.SZ南玻A股东大会通过2022-06-2328.006300790.SZ宇瞳光学发审委通过2022-06-216.006301049.SZ超越科技股东大会通过2022-06-174.406300793.SZ佳禾智能证监会核准2022-06-1010.046601577.SH长沙银行股东大会通过2022-06-09110.006002701.SZ奥瑞金发审委通过2022-06-039.406300705.SZ九典制药证监会核准2022-06-023.606605177.SH东亚药业证监会核准2022-06-016.906601609.SH金田股份发审委通过2022-05-3114.506603220.SH中贝通信股东大会通过2022-05-285.176300879.SZ大叶股份证监会核准2022-05-244.766601187.SH厦门银行股东大会通过2022-05-1250.006600531.SH豫光金铅股东大会通过2022-05-1114.706688398.SH赛特新材证监会核准2022-05-104.426300942.SZ易瑞生物发审委通过2022-04-303.286603306.SH华懋科技发审委通过2022-04-2910.506300737.SZ科顺股份发审委通过2022-04-2821.986301078.SZ孩子王证监会核准2022-04-2810.396301066.SZ万事利股东大会通过2022-04-263.206002810.SZ山东赫达证监会核准2022-04-266.006601528.SH瑞丰银行股东大会通过2022-03-3150.006603897.SH长城科技股东大会通过2022-03-0310.006003036.SZ泰坦股份证监会核准2022-01-132.966603327.SH福蓉科技发审委通过2022-01-136.406002757.SZ南兴股份股东大会通过2022-01-067.976002531.SZ天顺风能股东大会通过2021-12-1129.226002605.SZ姚记科技证监会核准2021-12-085.836300454.SZ深信服发审委通过2021-09-3012.156600348.SH华阳股份股东大会通过2021-08-2850.006603878.SH武进不锈发审委通过2021-07-303.106002809.SZ红墙股份股东大会通过2021-04-143.166002221.SZ东华能源股东大会通过2021-03-2430.006300462.SZ华铭智能股东大会通过2020-11-145.006资料来源：，表3：存续转债列表转债代码转债简称正股代码正股简称转债代码转债简称正股代码正股简称127086.SZ恒邦转债002237.SZ恒邦股份127033.SZ中装转2002822.SZ中装建设123199.SZ山河转债300452.SZ山河药辅127032.SZ苏行转债002966.SZ苏州银行118035.SH国力转债688103.SH国力股份110080.SH东湖转债600133.SH东湖高新123198.SZ金埔转债301098.SZ金埔园林113047.SH旗滨转债601636.SH旗滨集团123197.SZ光力转债300480.SZ光力科技123112.SZ万讯转债300112.SZ万讯自控118034.SH晶能转债688223.SH晶科能源113623.SH凤21转债603225.SH新凤鸣123196.SZ正元转02300645.SZ正元智慧123109.SZ昌红转债300151.SZ昌红科技113670.SH金23转债603180.SH金牌厨柜123108.SZ乐普转2300003.SZ乐普医疗123195.SZ蓝晓转02300487.SZ蓝晓科技110079.SH杭银转债600926.SH杭州银行123194.SZ百洋转债301015.SZ百洋医药123107.SZ温氏转债300498.SZ温氏股份123192.SZ科思转债300856.SZ科思股份127031.SZ洋丰转债000902.SZ新洋丰123193.SZ海能转债300787.SZ海能实业123106.SZ正丹转债300641.SZ正丹股份127085.SZ韵达转债002120.SZ韵达股份127030.SZ盛虹转债000301.SZ东方盛虹123191.SZ智尚转债300918.SZ南山智尚113046.SH金田转债601609.SH金田股份123190.SZ道氏转02300409.SZ道氏技术127029.SZ中钢转债000928.SZ中钢国际123189.SZ晓鸣转债300967.SZ晓鸣股份123104.SZ卫宁转债300253.SZ卫宁健康113669.SH景23转债603228.SH景旺电子123103.SZ震安转债300767.SZ震安科技123187.SZ超达转债301186.SZ超达装备123101.SZ拓斯转债300607.SZ拓斯达123188.SZ水羊转债300740.SZ水羊股份113045.SH环旭转债601231.SH环旭电子123186.SZ志特转债300986.SZ志特新材128144.SZ利民转债002734.SZ利民股份123185.SZ能辉转债301046.SZ能辉科技118000.SH嘉元转债688388.SH嘉元科技113668.SH鹿山转债603051.SH鹿山新材123100.SZ朗科转债300543.SZ朗科智能127084.SZ柳工转2000528.SZ柳工123099.SZ普利转债300630.SZ普利制药127083.SZ山路转债000498.SZ山东路桥123098.SZ一品转债300723.SZ一品红123183.SZ海顺转债300501.SZ海顺新材123096.SZ思创转债300078.SZ思创医惠123184.SZ天阳转债300872.SZ天阳科技113621.SH彤程转债603650.SH彤程新材123182.SZ广联转债300900.SZ广联航空113042.SH上银转债601229.SH上海银行118033.SH华特转债688268.SH华特气体113619.SH世运转债603920.SH世运电路123181.SZ亚康转债301085.SZ亚康股份123093.SZ金陵转债300651.SZ金陵体育113667.SH春23转债603890.SH春秋电子113618.SH美诺转债603538.SH美诺华110093.SH神马转债600810.SH神马股份128143.SZ锋龙转债002931.SZ锋龙股份113066.SH平煤转债601666.SH平煤股份127028.SZ英特转债000411.SZ英特集团127082.SZ亚科转债002540.SZ亚太科技113616.SH韦尔转债603501.SH韦尔股份123180.SZ浙矿转债300837.SZ浙矿股份123092.SZ天壕转债300332.SZ天壕环境118032.SH建龙转债688357.SH建龙微纳123091.SZ长海转债300196.SZ长海股份111013.SH新港转债605162.SH新中港113615.SH金诚转债603979.SH金诚信123179.SZ立高转债300973.SZ立高食品123090.SZ三诺转债300298.SZ三诺生物123178.SZ花园转债300401.SZ花园生物123089.SZ九洲转2300040.SZ九洲集团127081.SZ中旗转债001212.SZ中旗新材128142.SZ新乳转债002946.SZ新乳业123177.SZ测绘转债300826.SZ测绘股份128141.SZ旺能转债002034.SZ旺能环境123176.SZ精测转2300567.SZ精测电子123088.SZ威唐转债300707.SZ威唐工业113666.SH爱玛转债603529.SH爱玛科技123087.SZ明电转债300739.SZ明阳电路转债代码转债简称正股代码正股简称转债代码转债简称正股代码正股简称123175.SZ百畅转债300614.SZ百川畅银113044.SH大秦转债601006.SH大秦铁路123174.SZ精锻转债300258.SZ精锻科技123085.SZ万顺转2300057.SZ万顺新材118031.SH天23转债688599.SH天合光能127027.SZ能化转债000552.SZ甘肃能化110092.SH三房转债600370.SH三房巷113043.SH财通转债601108.SH财通证券111012.SH福新转债605488.SH福莱新材127026.SZ超声转债000823.SZ超声电子111011.SH冠盛转债605088.SH冠盛股份128140.SZ润建转债002929.SZ润建股份127080.SZ声迅转债003004.SZ声迅股份123082.SZ北陆转债300016.SZ北陆药业118030.SH睿创转债688002.SH睿创微纳123080.SZ海波转债300517.SZ海波重科123173.SZ恒锋转债300605.SZ恒锋信息113610.SH灵康转债603669.SH灵康药业127079.SZ华亚转债003043.SZ华亚智能123078.SZ飞凯转债300398.SZ飞凯材料113665.SH汇通转债603176.SH汇通集团113609.SH永安转债603776.SH永安行118029.SH富淼转债688350.SH富淼科技110077.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