分布式风电市场报告

U.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCYU.S.DEPARTMENTOFENERGYOFFICEOFENERGYEFFICIENCY&RENEWABLEENERGY #From2012through2021,55%oftotaldistributedwindcapacityservedlocalloads,while45%wasforon-siteuse(％)AQedeots.aold耳ojjo島CapacityofProjects(MW)Year8070605040100%001(％)AQedeots.aold耳ojjo島CapacityofProjects(MW)Year8070605040100%001■LocalUse■On-siteUseDistributedwindforon-siteuseandlocalloadsbycapacityofprojects,2012-2021

In2021,theaveragecapacityofturbinesgreaterthan100kWindistributedwindprojectswas1.1MWAveragesizeofturbinesgreaterthan100kWindistributedwindprojectsandaveragesizeofthoseprojects,2003-2021•Theaverageturbinecapacitywas2MWin2020.Similardropsinaverageturbinesize(andaverageprojectsize)canalsobeobservedinyears2008,2010,and2015whenmid-sizeturbinesaccountedformorethan40%oftheprojectsinthoseyears.

Newturbinesinthesizesegmentof11-100kWcomprisedthemajoritythesmallwindsalescapacityin2021(MMI)u.2MPP<Aes.CQoYear(MMI)u.2MPP<Aes.CQoYearU.S.smallwindsalescapacitybyturbinesize,2012-2021■NewTurbinesRated11-100kW■NewTurbinesRated0.1-0.9kWYear■NewTurbinesRated11-100kW■NewTurbinesRated0.1-0.9kWYear(％)uoMPPVAoede3jo會Themarketsharefornewturbines1-100kWincreased,whilerefurbished11-100kWandless-than-1-kWdecreased■RefurbishedTurbinesRated11*100kWNewTurbinesRated1*10kWU.S.smallwindsalespercentageofcapacitybyturbinesize,2012-2021FutureOutlook,MarketPotential,andConclusionsFutureOutlookandMarketPotentialTheDistributedEnergyFuturesStudydeterminedthereiseconomicpotentialfor919GWofbehind-the-meterinstallationsand474GWoffront-of-the-meterinstallationsina2022baselinescenario.oEconomicpotentialisdefinedashavingapositiverateofreturnoTheprojectionsincreasesubstantiallyina2035scenariothatincludesmorepolicysupport,namelytheextensionofthefederalInvestmentTaxCreditandrelaxedsitingconditions.TheDistributedWindEnergyAssociation'svisiontoachieve35GWofbehind-the-meterdistributedwindby2035requirestheimplementationofpolicyandprogramchanges.OneEnergyEnterpriseLLCestimatesthereis36GWofbehind-the-meterdistributedwindmarketpotentialforindustrialcustomers.Althoughthesestudieshavedifferentfocusesandassumptions,theyallagreethatthereissignificantmarketpotentialfordistributedwind.However,basedoncurrentdeploymentlevels,meetingtheseprojectionswouldrequireeffortsthatgobeyondbusinessasusual.

Conclusions,TheU.S.distributedwindmarketdoesnotalwaysexhibitconsistenttrendsandtherecanbesignificantvariationfromyeartoyearwithrespecttocustomerdemand,installedcosts,incentiveavailability,anddeploymentlevelsamongandwithinthedifferentturbinesizesegments.oLarge-scalewindturbinescontinuetoaccountformostofthedistributedwindcapacityadditions;however,thetotalannualdeployedcapacityusinglarge-scaleturbinesfluctuatesyeartoyearastheseprojectshavelongerproject-developmentcyclesthansmallerdistributedwindenergyprojects.oTheuseofmid-sizeturbinesremainslimited,butthereisanupwardtrendinthenumberofprojectsusingmid-sizedturbinesoverthepastthreeyears.oTheU.S.smallwindmarkethasbeengenerallydecliningsinceapeakin2012,butsawaslightincreaseindep