国际经济学II课件2-06

InternationalEconomicIILecture06GovernmentPoliciestowardtheForeignExchangeMarket（政府的外汇市场政策）ObjectivesThefirsthalfofthischapterexaminestypesofgovernmentpoliciestowardtheforeignexchangemarketandprovidesanalysisofgovernmentinterventionandexchangecontrols.(PartI)Thesecondhalfexaminestheactualpoliciesthatgovernmentshaveadoptedduringthepast130years.(PartII)PartIConceptsandAnalysisoftheForeignExchangePolicies对外汇政策的理论分析Whywillthegovernmentinterveneintheforeignexchangemarket?Toreducevariabilityinexchangerates.Tokeepitscurrency’svaluehighorlow.Toreducedomesticinflation.Todefendnationalhonororencouragenationalpricebymaintainingasteadyexchangerateorastrongcurrencyinternationally.Whywillthegovernmentinterveneintheforeignexchangemarket?FrameworkofGovernment’sFXPoliciesGovernment’sFXPoliciesPoliciesthatpermitorrestrictaccesstotheforeignexchangemarket(Quantity)PoliciestowardstheExchangeRateitself(Price)FixedExchangeRateFloatingExchangeRateCleanFloatDirtyFloat(ManagedFloat)

PeggedExchangeRateAdjustablePegCrawlingPegNoRestrictionExchangeControl1.FloatingExchangeRateCleanFloat:Thegovernmentpermitsprivatemarketdemandandsupplytosettheexchangeratewithnodirectinvolvementbygovernmentofficials

自由浮动汇率（清洁浮动汇率）――市场的供给和需求完全是私人（非官方）活动决定，浮动汇率将随着私人市场的供给与需求变化而变化，这是一种具有完全灵活性的极端情况1.FloatingExchangeRateManagedFloat/DirtyFloat:Themonetaryauthoritiesbuyorsellforeigncurrency(inexchangefordomesticcurrency)toaltertheconfigurationofsupplyanddemand,andthusinfluencetheexchangerate.

管理浮动汇率（肮脏浮动汇率）货币当局进入外汇市场买入和卖出外汇（或与本币进行交换），从而影响均衡汇率水平。1.FloatingExchangeRateThinkingaboutthefollowingQuestions:Tellmethepossiblereasonsofsupportingoropposingthefloatingexchangeratesystem?Doimportrestrictionsleadtorisingtotalemploymentinonecountry?PossibleReasonsofSupportingorOpposingFloatingExchangeRateTheCaseforFloatingExchangeRate

--MonetaryPolicyAutonomy

--Symmetry

--ExchangeRateasAutomaticStabilization

PossibleReasonsofSupportingorOpposingFloatingExchangeRateTheCaseagainstFloatingExchangeRate（AdhocSystem)

--Discipline(“InflationBias”)

--DestabilizingSpeculationandMoneyMarketDisturbances

--InjurytoInternationalTradeandInvestment

--UncoordinatedEconomicPolicies

--TheillusionofGreaterAutonomy

Doimportrestrictionsleadtorisingtotalemploymentinonecountry?Aslongasthiscountrymaintainsafloatingexchangerate,theimplementationofimportrestrictionstohelponeindustrywillgraduallyshiftjobsfromotherindustriesintheeconomytotheprotectedindustry,withnosignificantimpactonaggregateemployment.2.FixedExchangeRate2.1WhattoFixto?2.2WhentoChangetheFixedRate?2.3HowtoDefendtheFixedValue?2.1WhattoFixto?Gold(acenturyago)TheU.S.Dollar/OneSingleCurrency（SincetheendofWorldWarII）TheAverageValueofaNumberofOtherCurrencies

GoldDisadvantagesofGold--LimitedOutput--UnbalancedAllocation--FluctuatingPrice--ExtraCostsAdvantagesofGold--Idealhedgingmeasure--”War-chest”MotiveTheU.S.Dollar/OneSingleCurrencyTheU.S.Dollar--TheBrettonWoodsEra(1944-1971)Peggingtoasinglecurrencyisgenerallydonebydevelopingnationswhosetradeandfinancialrelationshipsaremainlywithasingleindustrialcountrypartner.TheAverageValueofaNumberofOtherCurrenciesWhywouldacountrychoosetofixtoa“basket”ofothercurrencies?Whatbasketofcurrenciesmightthecountryfixto?--SpecialDrawlingRights(SDR)--AcountrycancreateitsownbasketSpecialDrawlingRights(SDR)SDR--abasketofthefourmajorcurrenciesintheworldWitheffectfromJan1,2008,theIMFhasdeterminedthatfourcurrenciesintheSDRvaluationbasketwillbeassignedthefollowingWeightsbasedontheirrolesininternationalTradeandInvestment:U.S.dollar(44%),euro(34%),Japaneseyen(11%),PoundSterling(11%)SDRandInternationalSettlement2.FixedExchangeRate2.1WhattoFixto?2.2WhentoChangetheFixedRate?2.3HowtoDefendtheFixedValue?2.2WhentoChangetheFixedRate？PeggedExchangeRate(Never,notCredit)AdjustablePeg(Seldom)CrawlingPeg(Often)Whatfactorscaninfluencetheissueofwhentochangethepeggedrate?PeggedExchangeRate(Never)

钉住汇率

Neverisapolarcase,butitprobablyisnotcompletelycredible(andweoftenthenspeakofapeggedexchangerateinsteadofafixedexchangerate)AdjustablePeg(Seldom)

可调整的固定汇率（可调整的钉住汇率）

Inthefactofasubstantialor“fundamental”disequilibriuminthecountry’sinternationalposition,thegovernmentmaychangethepegged-ratevalue,thisapproachiscalledanadjustablepegTheBrettonWoodsSystem(1944-1971)CrawlingPeg(Often)

蠕动钉住汇率下（爬行钉住汇率）

Withacrawlingpeg,thepegvalueischangedoften(forinstance,monthly)accordingtoasetofindicatorsoraccordingtothejudgmentofthegovernmentmonetaryauthority.

在蠕动钉住汇率下（爬行钉住汇率），钉住汇率值常常（例如每个月）根据一组数据或政府货币当局的意图进行调整。Whatfactorscaninfluencetheissueofwhentochangethepeggedrate?Thechoiceofthewidthoftheallowablebandiscloselyrelatedtotheissueofwhentochangethepeggedrate.2.FixedExchangeRate2.1WhattoFixto?2.2WhentoChangetheFixedRate?2.3HowtoDefendtheFixedValue?2.3HowtodefendtheFixedValue?OfficialInterventionExchangeControlAlterdomesticinterestratesAdjustthecountry’swholemacroeconomicpositionSwitchtoafloatingexchangerate2.3.1OfficialInterventiona.DefenseagainstDepreciationb.DefenseagainstAppreciationc.TemporaryDisequilibriumd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporarya.DefenseagainstDepreciationMechanism:Ifthecountry'scurrencyisexperiencingpressuretowarddepreciation,thecountry'smonetaryauthoritycandefendthefixedratebyenteringtheforeignexchangemarkettobuydomesticcurrencyandsellforeigncurrency.Figure6.1InterventiontoDefendaFixedRate:

PreventingDepreciationoftheCountry’sCurrencya.DefenseagainstDepreciationEffects:Throughintervention,themonetaryauthorityisfinancingthedeficitinitsofficialsettlementbalance.Wheredoesthecountry’smonetaryauthoritygetthedollarstosellintotheFXmarket?Whatistheimplicationofbuyingdomesticcurrencyfromtheforeignexchangemarket?Wheredoesthecountry’smonetaryauthoritygetthedollarstosellintotheFXmarket?OfficialInternationalReserveAssets

--ForeignExchangeAssets--ReservePositionwiththeIMF--SpecialDrawlingRights

--GoldBorrowstheDollars

--Official(SwapLines)--Private(Secret)ReserveCurrency(DeficitswithoutTears)

国际储备：各国中央政府为了弥补国际收支逆差和保持汇率稳定而持有的国际间可以接受的一切资产外汇资产：一国政府所持有的可以自由兑换的外币以及短期金融资产储备头寸（普通提款权）：国际货币基金组织的会员国按规定从基金组织提取一定数额款项的权利，是IMF中最基本的一项贷款。SDR实际上是一种允许各国借入美元的信贷额度，但SDR被当作储备是因为一国可以自动从信贷额度内提取贷款。Whatistheimplicationofbuyingdomesticcurrencyfromtheforeignexchangemarket?Bybuyingdomesticcurrency,themonetaryauthorityisremovingdomesticmoneyfromtheeconomy,whichtendstolowerthedomesticmoneysupplyunlesstheauthorityseparatelytakesactionofsterilizationtorestorethedomesticmoneybackintotheeconomy.2.3.1OfficialInterventiona.DefenseagainstDepreciationb.DefenseagainstAppreciationc.TemporaryDisequilibriumd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporaryb.DefenseagainstAppreciationMechanism:BuyingtheU.S.dollarsandSellingDomesticCurrenciesFigure6.3InterventiontoDefendaFixedRate:

PreventingAppreciationoftheCountry’sCurrencyb.DefenseagainstAppreciationEffects:ItwillresultinanofficialsettlementsbalancesurplusWhatdoesthecountry’smonetaryauthoritydowiththedollarsthatitobtainsfromtheFXmarket?Itaddsthesedollarstoitsofficialinternationalreserveholdings(or,ifappropriate,repayspriorofficialborrowingsofdollars)b.DefenseagainstAppreciationWhatistheimplicationofsellingdomesticcurrencyintotheFXmarket?Thiswillexpandthedomesticmoneysupplyunlesstheauthorityseparatelytakesanotheractiontoremovetheadditionaldomesticmoneyfromtheeconomy.2.3.1OfficialInterventiona.DefenseagainstDepreciationb.DefenseagainstAppreciationc.TemporaryDisequilibriumd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporaryc.TemporaryDisequilibriumKeyIssueofOfficialIntervention:Thelengthoftimeforwhichtheinterventionmustcontinue.FinancingtemporarydeficitsandsurplusesisbetterthanlettingtheexchangeratefloataroundConditionstomeetTemporarydisequilibrium2.3.1OfficialInterventiona.DefenseagainstDepreciationb.DefenseagainstAppreciationc.TemporaryDisequilibriumd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporaryd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporaryIfthedisequilibriumisongoingorfundamentalratherthantemporary,theninterventionaloneisnotlikelytobeabletosustainthefixedexchangerate.Instead,thegovernmentmustshifttooneoftheotherdefensesordevalue.

Pressuretowarddepreciation(deficitimbalance)Pressuretowardappreciation(surplusimbalance)d.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporary

PressuretowardAppreciationOngoingDeficitfacingpressuretowarddepreciationofficialinterventiontosellforeigncurrencyofficialreserveswillrunlowlosingabilitytoborrowforeignexchangeshifttooneoftheotherthreedefensesorsurrender(devaluate)Speculatororinvestor’sone-wayspeculativegambleselldomesticcurrencyandbuyforeigncurrencyhasteningthelossofreservesd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporary

PressuretowardAppreciation

Mechanism:OngoingSurplusaccumulateslargeinternationalreservesbuyforeigncurrencyPressurestowardappreciationd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporary

PressuretowardAppreciationProblemsoflargeinternationalreserves:--Thebasicrateofreturnonthisparticularformofnationalwealthtendstobelow--thevalueofforeignexchangeassetswilldeclineifthecountryeventuallymust“retreat”byrevaluatingitsowncurrency.d.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporaryFundamentalDisequilibriumcallsforadjustment,notmerelyfinancing.Unfortunately,itisnoteasytojudgewhetheran