出口退税政策

中国的出口退税政策liuqingdm@“对外贸易是增加我们财富和现金的通常手段……，在价值上，每年卖给外国人的货物，必须比我们消费他们的多。”——托马斯·孟“foreigntradeistheengineforgrowth.”——D.H.RobertsonOutlineDefinitionAbriefhistoryEconomiceffectsFutureMotivationMotivationWhyChina’sexportincreasessorapidly?TheanswerTradetheorycomparativeadvantageIncreasingreturntoscaleTradepolicyExportpromotionsubsidyDefinition对出口货物退还其在国内生产和流通环节实际缴纳的产品税、增值税、营业税和特别消费税。1985年3月，国务院正式颁发了《关于批转财政部〈关于对进出口产品征、退产品税或增值税的规定〉的通知》，规定从1985年4月1日起实行对出口产品退税政策。Definition条件必须是增值税、消费税征收范围内的货物必须是报关离境出口的货物必须是在财务上作出口销售处理的货物必须是已收汇并经核销的货物DefinitionsanctionedbytheWTO不违背WTO规则TheWTOAgreementonSubsidiesandCountervailingMeasures(SCM,Article1.1a)allowsmemberstoproviderebatesonexportdutiesaslongastherebatedoesnotexceedthefullextentofthedutyimposed.Thus,incontrasttoothertradepoliciessuchasexportsubsidies,VATrebatesaresanctionedbytheWTO.DefinitionsanctionedbytheWTO不违背WTO规则tradetheoryimpliesthatadestination-basedVATsystemwithacompleteexporttaxrebatehasneutraleffectsonexportsandimports(FeldsteinandKrugman,1990)apositiverelationshipbetweentheVATrebaterateandexportvolume(FeldsteinandKrugman,1990)OutlineDefinitionAbriefhistoryEconomiceffectsFutureAbriefhistoryExporttaxrebateswerefirstusedinChinain1985Mainlyduetothemodestexportvolume,thetotalamountofexporttaxrebatesstartedsmall,atlessthan1.8billionRMBin1985,amountingtoabout0.88%oftotaltaxrevenue.AbriefhistoryBy2007,thetotalamountofVATrebatespaidtoChineseexportersrosetoover560billionRMB;andtheratiobetweenexporttaxrebatesandtotaltaxrevenueincreasedto12.35%2013年，出口退税总额占全国公共财政收入的8.1%，占全国公共财政支出的7.5%。1985-2008年出口退税额变动趋势Exporttaxrebates/totaltaxrevenue:1985–2007AbriefhistoryTheVATratewassetat17%formostcommoditiesproducedinChinathroughoutthepost-1994periodFollowingtheprincipleoffullrefundofVATleviedonexportsindestination-basedVAT,theexporttaxrebaterateswereinitiallysettoequaltheVATrate,resultinginanaverageactualrebaterateof16.63%in1994AbriefhistorySubsequently,therapidgrowthinexports,coupledwithaless-than-perfectauditingsystemintheearlystageoftheexporttaxrebateprogram,quicklyresultedinalargeVATrebatebacklogin1995,justoneyearintothenewrebateprogram.By1996,thefiscalburdenbecamesoheavythatthegovernmentwasforcedtoreducetherebateratesfrom17%toasetofmuchlowerrates(3%,6%,and9%fordifferentgroupsofcommodities)AbriefhistorySincethen,theexporttaxrebaterateshavebeenadjustedmultipletimes,sometimesinresponsetoexportconditionsandsometimesduetofiscalconstraintsTocountertheAsianfinancialcrisisof1997andthesubsequentdifficultiesfacedbyChineseexporters,thelowexporttaxrebateratesof1996weredroppedandreplacedin1998byasetofhigherrebateratesof5%,13%,15%,and17%dependingonthecategoryofgoodsAbriefhistoryHereagainthehighgrowthofexportsbetween2000and2003ledtoalargebacklogofrebatepaymentsandseverefiscalpressureonthecentralgovernment.Inresponse,therebaterateswereloweredagainin2004to5%,8%,11%,13%,and17%dependingontheproductcategory.Abriefhistory2007年，“二高一资”产品出口退税率降低或取消。2008年，为了缓解经济危机影响，提高出口退税率。Abriefhistory2004年我国出台新的出口退税政策，它是对原出口退税机制的重大改革，具体改革内容包括：对出口退税率的结构进行调整。针对不同的产品类别采取不同的出口退税率，对国家鼓励出口的高新技术类产品适当提高退税率，而对国家限制出口的“两高一资”产品适当下调甚至取消出口退税率；加大中央财政对出口退税支持力度；建立中央和地方共同负担出口退税新机制，以2003年出口退税实退指标为基数，对超基数部分的应退税额，由中央与地方按三比一的比例分别负担；累计欠退税由中央财政负担。OutlineDefinitionAbriefhistoryEconomiceffectsFutureEconomiceffectsHowdoesvalue-addedtaxaffecttrade?Howdoesexporttaxrebateaffecttrade?SomeothereffectsFirst-orderSecond-orderHigh-orderHowdoesvalue-addedtaxaffecttradetheidealizedVATsystemhasnoeffectonacountry'sexportsorimports(oftenreferredtoastheneutralityorirrelevancyresult)FeldsteinandKrugman(1990)threeconditionsThecountryisaprice-takerontheworldgoodsmarketAuniformVATrateappliestobothtradablegoodsandnon-tradablegoodsItisadestination-basedVATwithVATimposedonimportsandfullVATrebatesgiventoexportsExporttaxrebateratesandexportgrowthIdentifythecausaldirectionOtherfactorsthatmayalsoinfluenceexportsmightbepresentatthesametimeastheexporttaxrebaterateadjustment,includingthemacroeconomicconditionsofforeignmarketsandothertradepoliciesadoptedbytheChinesegovernmenttofacilitateexports.improvedcustomsandtransportationservicesIdentifythecausaldirectionEndogeneity内生性Asdifferentexporttaxrebateratesareassignedtodifferentcommoditiesbytradeofficialswhohaveanincentivetoshowcasetheeffectivenessoftheirpolicies,theymaysethigherrebateratesforproductswithagreaterpotentialforexportgrowthChandraandLong(2013)studytheroleofVATrebatesinaffectingChineseexportsusingfirm-levelpaneldatafor2000–2006Toaddresspotentialendogeneity,theyrelyonaquasi-naturalpolicyexperimentin2004foreachpercentagepointincreaseintheVATrebaterate,theamountofexportsincreasedby13%,whichtranslatesintoanadditional$4.70ofexportsforeach$1ofexporttaxrebatespaid.Twocaveatsastheresultsarebasedonarelativelyshortpanel,thefindingsmaynotbeusedtoextrapolateeffectsofVATrebateratesonexportsinthelongertermtheseresultsdonotspeaktothegeneraleffectivenessorefficiencyoftradepoliciesinChinaonecannotruleoutthepossibilitythatChineseexportgrowthcouldhavebeenhigherifChinahadadoptedadifferenttaxsystemaVATsystemwithautomaticcompleteborderadjustmentsSomeothereffectsWelfareeffectPositiveeffectChenetal.(2006)；陈林和朱卫平（2008）Negativeorambiguous马捷（2002）；Feenstra(2004)Someothereffects兰宜生和刘晴（2011）平均出口退税率与出口额刘晴和严雷（2013）BasedonMelitz（2003）Export-stabilizedeffect，Structure-optimizedeffect,firm-evolvedeffectandsurplus-alleviatedeffect出口稳定效应、结构优化效应、企业进化效应和顺差缓解效应Someothereffects刘晴等（2014）出口退税与房价InspiredbyChandraandLong(2013)2013年70个大中城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比上涨的城市个数年末仍有69个。有趣的是，2014年上半年我国出口贸易和部分城市的房价同比都有所下降。出口退税与房价：作用渠道财政视角土地财政我国在1998年和2004年先后实施了住房制度改革和土地“招拍挂”政策。土地价格和房地产价格不断上升，地方财政对土地财政的依赖逐步加重（贾康和刘微，2012）出口退税与房价：作用渠道货币视角长期的外贸顺