暑期培训2、如何制定战略scenarioguides场景指导-1.generalguide已译

GENERALGENERALAllGMCscenariosareuniqueandforlonghistoryofthechampionshiptheyhaveaccumulatedseveraldozen.However,therearesomeuniversaltipsthatyoucanfollowsafelyinanyscenariowhilemakingcompany'sstrategyfor inggame.Basedonthecumulativeexperienceofourexperts,thistopicprovidesgeneraladvicefamestrategyinnewversionoftheGMCsimulator.Thesetipsareusedindevelopmentofcalculationmodelv2,whichyoucanpurchaseinourstore.Opponentsinthegroup-itisimportanttoyzebeforestartofthegame,howmuchyouropponentswillinterferewithsellingyourproducts.Elasticityofsomedemandfactorsdependsonmarketloadverymuch.Thesmallertotalmarketshareoccupiedbyyouandyouropponents,theeasieritwillbetoincreasesalesvolumesandviceversa.Forexample,ifyourgroupwithyouwillbetotalof4teams(minimumnumber),thenyoucanexpectaveragedemandx2growth(verysimplifiedcalculation)comparedwithgroup,whichwillplayall8teams(umnumber).Butevenifyourgroupconsistsof8teamsyouneedtoroughlyunderstandtherealstrengthofyouropponents-playin1roundofnationalchampionship,wherealotofnewbiesorinworldchampionshipwhereplayonlybestofthebestteams-theseare2verybigdifferences.In"weak"groupyouneedtoplaymoreaggressively,investingmoremoneyinexpansionintomarkets.In“strong”group,onthecontrary,youneedtoswitchtomode,sinceyouwillnotbeabletoearnanywaybecauseofopponentsinthegroup,andyouwilljustburnmoneyfornothing.Thisandotherguidesarevalidfroupswithaveragerivalry,whereisconductedactivestruggleformarket.Corporateadvertising-rememberstrongcumulativeeffectofinvestmentincorporateadvertising,soinvestumin1and2periodwithagradualdecreaseto0in5period.Forgreatereffect,choosemarketwithprospectiveumsales,usuallyitismarketEUandInternet.EUmarketismuchsmallerandlargeinvestmentsincorporateadvertisingwillhardlypayoff.Directadvertising-followsimplerule,themorepotentialproductsales,themoreyouneedtoinvestindirectadvertisingforthismarket.Totalbudgetfordirectadvertisingiscalculatedbasedon4-8%shareofplannedsalesrevenue.Accumulativeeffectofdirectadvertisingissmall,soinlastperiodsreduceinvestmentsindirectadvertisingverysmoothly(unlikecorporateadvertising),otherwiseyoumaylosemarketshare.Prices-oneofthedemandfactors,whichelasticitydirectlydependsonmarketload.Pricestrategywillresemblearollercoaster.In1and2periods,marketloadisstillsmall,elasticityofpricesisum-wereducepricesandgrabmarketshares.Ifyoumanagedtocapturemarketsharesmorethanopponents,theninlastperiods(3-5)wewaitwhenmarketloadeshigherthan60-70%,thenweraiseandsetpricesslightlyabovetheaverage.Thus,youkeepmarketsharewhichwoninthebeginningofthegameandgetadditionalprofitinperiodsduetohigherpricesandgreaterprofitabilitycomparedtoopponents.In5period,youcanagainreducepricesandfurtherincreasemarketsharetoincreasegoodwill(marketshareisoneofgoodwillfactors),butinthiscaseyouwilllosepartoftheprofitduetolowerProductionplan-whencalculatingamountofproductsforshipmenttoagentsanddistributors,trynottosendsemi-emptyorpartiallyfilledcontainers.EspeciallyitconcernsNaftamarket,wheresending1containercosts8000.PriorityforlargemarketsEUandInternet,developmentofNaftamarketshouldbeonresidualprinciple.Amongproducts,themostimportantis1productforsamereason.Incommon,planproductionforeachperiod,dependingonmarketneedsandchosenstrategy.Takeopportunitytoleavepartofproductsinthewarehouse,inordertoevenlybalancefactoryloadinconditionsofchangingseasonalQualityofR&Dimplementation(productimprovement)-itisnecessarytoimplementonlyMAJORdevelopments,MINORdevelopmentsareimplementedautomatically.ImplementingMAJORdevelopmentdestructsallwarehousestocksofthisproduct.Itisimportanttorememberthatsometimesinhistoryscenariocanbe“hidden”MAJORdevelopmentthathavenotbeenimplementedintoproductionbefore.Ifyouarenotsurethatthereareno"hidden"MAJORdevelopmentsinscenario,thenit'sbettertoimplementallR&Djustincase.R&Ddevelopment-ItisratherdifficulttopredictR&Ddevelopmentswithouthavingready-madeR&Dstatistics,soitiseasiertochooseoptimalR&Dplanfromourpre-preparedR&Ddatabasesandbuildproductionstrategyaroundit.InexactperiodwhenyouplantoimplementMAJORdevelopment,trytopredictdemandverycarefullyincasenottoleavelargestockofproductsinwarehouse,becauseyouhavetodestructitatthepriceofscrap.Assemblytime-effectofincreasingassemblytimecomesonlyinnextperiod,soifyoudecidetoincreaseassemblytimeofproduct,thenitshouldbealreadydonein1period,umin2period.Incommon,itwillbeoptimaltoleaveassemblytimeatthesamelevelorevenreduceto115-120%ofnominalvalue.HQRM(highqualityrawmaterial)-usingHQRMcanmakesenseifrawmaterialspricerelativelylow.Infact,HQRMhasonly2generaloptions(demandhaslineardependenceonthefactor)-ifusingofHQRMinproductioniseconomicallyprofitable,thenset100%.IfusingHQRMinproductioniseconomicallyunprofitable,thenset0%.Forecastcompany’sprofitfromusingHQRManddeterminetheneedforusing,canbeeasilydoneincalculationmodelv2.Subcontracting-extremelyusefulandcheapoptionforrapidproductionincreasing,ifyouneedtoincreaseoutputofproducts.Thereareonly2alternativetosubcontracting-switchingtomorenumberofshifts(2,3)andpurchasingnewmachines.Disadvantagesofthesemethodswillbediscussedbelow.Forproperuseofsubcontracting,forecastproductionplanfornextperiodandpurchaseasmanycomponentsasyouneedfornormalfactorywork5daysaweek-100%machinesload(umloadfor7daysaweekis137%).Thus,youwillnotoverpayyour nelforovertimeworkandreducecostofproduction.Takecarethatin5periodyoudonothaveunusedcomponentsleftinwarehouse,thesearefrozenfundswhichdecreaseliquidityofyourcompany.Agentsanddistributors-usespecialagentanddistributorsmaptoselectbestplanforrecrutingagents.NumberofagentsanddistributorsdependonexpectedvolumeofsalesinEUandNaftamarket.Incommon,optimalnumberofagentsforEUmarketis5-8and4-6forNaftamarketdependingonscenario.Trytorecruitrequirednumberofagentsanddistributorin1periodanddonotchangeituntilofthegame.In5periodrecruit1-2additionaldistributorsforNaftamarkettoincreasecompany'sgoodwill(increasingagencynetworkisoneofgoodwillMaterials-buymaterialswithasmallreservetohaveenoughresourcesforproduction.Itisusefultoplanproductioninadvanceforall5periodsandpurchasematerialsfor3and6monthfutures,soyoucansavemoney.Rememberthatwhenusingcomponentsforproduction,youdonotneedtobuymaterials,itisnotrequiredandwillsimplylayinMaintenancehours-duringoperation,machinesspendtheirresourcesandrequireconstantmaintenancehours.Ifmachinesarenottimelyserviced,theirefficiencywilldecreaseandmachiningworkerswillspendmoretimeproducingparts,whichwillincreasecostofproduction.Trytokeepmachineefficiency92%,itwillbeoptimal.Achievinghigherlevelofmachineefficiencyrequiresmorehoursofmaintenanceandeconomicallyunprofitable.Shiftlevel-simpleruleis-productionin1shiftisalwayscherthan2shifts(ifallotherthingsareequal),andproductionin2shiftsisalwayscherthanin3shifts.Choseworkin1shiftforyournelandusesubcontractingtocompensateshortageofcomponents.Theonlycasewhenyouneedtosetproductiontohighershiftlevelis1periodofthegame.Inabsenceofopportunitiestoincreaseproductionhereandnowchangingshiftlevelto2or3willbenecessary,butpropermeasure.Otherwise,youcanloseyourmarketshare,becauseyouwillnotbeabletosupplyyouragentsanddistributorswithenoughamountofproducts,unlikeyourmoreaggressiveopponents.Numberofports-verysimplecalculation,whichisdescribedindetailinspecialtopic.Purchaseenoughportstomaintainnomorethan0.1%ofestimatedleveloffailedvisits.In5periodnumberofportscanbedoubled.Websitedevelopment-websitedevelopmentincreasedemandonlyinInternetmarket.Themoreinvestmentsinwebsite,thegreatersalesgrowthyoucanexpect.OptimalvalueofinvestmentdependsonsizeofInternetmarketandisintherangeof15-40.Recruitassemblyworkers-cheapwaytorecruitadditionalworkers.Inabsenceofcompetitioninlabormarket(orsufficientnumberofunemployedworkers),recruitingrequirednumberofworkersispracticallyassured.Withshortageoffreeworkersinlabormarket,probabilityofsuccessfulrecruitmentofnewworkersisreducedto20-30%ofplannednumber.Inthissituation,attemptstohireevenmoreandmoreworkersdoesnotmakesense,youwillspendmoneyfornothing.Trainassemblyworkers-expensivebutguaranteedwaytoincreasenumberofassemblyworkers.Itisusedinexceptionalcases,whencompetitionamongcompaniesfornelinlabormarketisexorbitant.Inanyothersituation,itwillbechertoincreaserecruitingofassemblyworkersorsethigherwagerateinordertoincreasechancesofnelWagerate-reducingwagerateisimpossible,itwillcausestrikeofnel.Youcanincreaseit,butitalsocauseincreaseofproductioncost.Raisingwageratemakessenseonlyifthereisshortageofworkersinlabormarketand,asaconsequence,productionofgoodsislimited.Thenyouneedtoofferthemostfavorableworkingconditionswhichwillhelptoattractassemblyworkersfromlabormarkettoyourcompany.Insuchsituation,increaseofproductioncostwillbeoffsetbyincreaseofproductionscaleand egrowthfromsales.4．Managementbudget-importantparameter,whichisoftenunderestimatedbychallengers.Managementbudgetaffectsallmajorprocessesincompany.Raisingmanagementbudgetwillincreasedemandforproducts,decreasepercentageofrejects,speedupresearchanddevelopmentofimprovements,reduceriskofforcemajeure,increaseattractivenessofcompanyfornelrecruitment,etc.Optimalvalueofmanagementbudgetis13-14%ofadministrativeexpenses.Calculateaverageadministrativeexpensesduringall5periodsofthegameinadvanceandsetrequiredmanagementbudgetin1period.Rememberthatitisstronglynot mendedtoreducemanagementbudget.5．Stafftraining-principleofstafftrainingiscompleyogoustomanagementbudget,butitcostsmuchcherandhaslesseffect.Unlikemanagementbudget,stafftrainingcanbereducedorevenset0withoutanyriskofcausingnelstrikeorforcemajeure.Stafftraininghassignificantcumulativeeffect(similartocorporateadvertising),soitismendedtoinvestmostfundsintraningatthebeginningofthegameandgraduallyreduceto5period.Sharestoissue/repurchase-detailedinformationaboutissueandrepurchasesharesdescribedinthistopic.Issuesharesincreasesavailableliquidityofcompany,whichincreasesgoodwillandinvestmentperformance,therefore,issuesharesminimum2timesduringthegame-10%ofsharecapitaleachcalendaryear.Freatereffect,chooserightmomenttoissueandrepurchaseshares-issuesharesatumshareprice,repurchaseatthelowestprice.Thiswaycompanyearnsextraprofitduetothedifferenceinshareprices.Dividends-importantfactorforincreasinginvestmentperformance,calculationofdividendpaymentdescribedinthistopic.Termloans-loanthatyoucanborrow,butyoucannotreturn.InoldversionofGMCsimulator,moneytakenontermloanwasstillconsideredasliquidfundsofcompanyandteamsoftentooktermloanin5periodtoincreasegoodwill(liquidityisoneofgoodwillfactors).InnewversionofGMCsimulatormoneytakenontermloandoesnotconsideredasliquidfundsandthisdecisionlostanysenseatall.Termdeposit-all"free"fundsisusefultoputondeposit,whichwillgiveyousmallbut Machinestobuy-inoldversionofGMCsimulatorpurchaseofmachineswasverypopularsolutionforincreasingproduction.Withadditionofsubcontracting,theneedtobuymachineshasdisappearedatall,especiallysincetheystarttoworkonlyinnextperiod.Machinestosell-saleofmachinesmakessenseonlyifyouarelimitedinfactoryspaceandwanttofreesomeplaceoccupiedbymachinesforrecruitingadditionalassemblyworkers.Riskystrategywhereitisimportanttorememberthatwhenyousellmachinesyoupayadditionaltax60000andneedtoearnextramoneynextperiods.Incompetitivegroups,itisverydifficulttodo,somostoftensuchstrategycanbefoundinearlystagesofnationalchampionshiporingroupswith pletenumberofparticipatingteams.Factoryspace-mainlimit,whichrestrictsproductionatcompany'sfactory.Donotfettochecountoffreespaceinfactorywhenbuynewmachinesorrecruitnel.Ifspaceisnotenough,thenyouwillnotbeabletobuymachinesandhirestaff.Insuranceplan-innewversionofGMCsimulator,accidentallossofforcemajeurewaseliminatedinordertofairplaybetweenteams,soifyouhaveatleast1setofreports,thenyoucwaysaccuraypredictinwhichperiodcompanywillgetforcemajeureandbuyinsurance.Oryoucanbuydatabaseofinsuranceplansinourstore.Marketshares-it'susefultobuyinformationaboutmarketsharesatleastin1and2period,whencompaniesarejustbeginningtoexpandintomarkets.Soyouwillbeabletoestimaterelativelyfreeproductnichesandcorrectyourstrategyintime.Innextperiods,youcanplaywithoutinformationaboutmarketshares,becausemarketloadwillchangeveryslowlyanditschangecanbepredictedonbasisofexistedmanagementreports.Corporateactivity-informationaboutcompanieswillnothelpyoumuchduringthegame,butitwilllyouwhatstrategywaschosenbyopponentteamsinsubsequentysis.Ifyoutrytocorrectyourstrategyandadjusttoyourcompetitors(increaseyouradvertisingbudget,cutR&D),repeatingtheirdecisions,youarelikelywilllose.Informationaboutcorporateactivitymakessensetobuyonlyin1period,inordertounderstandapproximaywhattoexpectfromopponents.However,ifyouareconfidentthatyouarewinnerorviceversa,thatyouhavenotgotchancesanymore,thenbuyallinformationsafely,atleastyouwillexchangeitwithyourrivalsfromthegroupaftergame.所有GMC场景都是独一无二的，并且长期以来，他们已经积累了十几个冠军。然而，有一些普家的累积经验，本为新版GMC模拟器中的策略提供了一般建议。这些提示用于开发计算模型v2，您可以在的商店。组内的对手-在开始之前进行分析很重要，您的对手会干扰销售您的产品。一些需求因素4支球队（最低数量），那么您可以预期平均需求x2的增长（非常简化的计算）与组相比，这将打8支球队（最大数量）。但是即使的组合由8支球队组成，你需要大致了解你的对手的真正实力-在1轮的冠军赛中，有很多新手2非常大的差异在“弱势”群体中，您需要更积企业形象-记住企业投资的累积效应，所以投入最多在1和2期间逐渐下降到50产品直接-遵循简单的规则，潜在的产品销售越多，您需要投资于该市场的直接就越多。直接总额按计划销售收入的4-8％计算。直接的累积效应很小，所以在上价格-需求因一，其弹性直接取决于市场负荷。价格策略将类似过山车。在1到2期间，市场负担仍然很小，价格弹性最大-降价，抢占市场份额。如果你设法捕获市场份额超过对手，那么在上一个阶段（3-5），等待市场负担高于60-70％时，提高并设定价格略5期，您可以再次降价，进一步增加市场份额以生产计划-当计算出货到商和分销商的产品数量时，尽量不要发送半空或部分装满的容器。特别是关于市场其中发送1个集装箱成本为80000元/个大型市场的优先国内和互联网，1同样的原因。通常情况下，根MAJOR发展情研究与开发-在没有现成的研发统计资料的情况下，研发的进展是相当的，所以施MAJOR开发的确切时期，尽可能非常仔细地需求，以免在仓库中留下大量的产品，因-装配时间增加的影响只在下一个时期，所以如果决定增加产品的装配时间，那么12个时期。通常情况下，将组装时间保持在同一水平，甚至降115-120％是最佳的。-如果原材料价格相对较低，使用高品质原料可能是有道理的。事实上，高品