全球B2B：迈向赢者通吃的局面（全球电子商务行业）

1、6June 2019GlobalEQUITIESInsideTOC o 1-1 h z u HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Globalexhibitionmarket2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Still afragmentedindustry4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Events resilient todigitalmigration6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Events cyclicality: mythsvs truth9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 High margins and

2、 strongcashflow12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Valuation15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Ascential insixcharts18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Informa insixcharts19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 RELX insixcharts20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Emerald and ITE(notcovered)21AnalystsMacquarie Capital (Europe) Limited HYPERLINK /directo

3、ry/people/details?analystId=4810 Giasone Salati +44 20 3037 2670 HYPERLINK mailto:giasone.salati giasone.salati HYPERLINK /directory/people/details?analystId=5649 Pierre Ribeyron +44 203 037 1489 HYPERLINK mailto:pierre.ribeyron pierre.ribeyronMacquarie Capital (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK /directory/people

4、/details?analystId=4993 Hamzah Mazari, CPA +1 212 231 2442 HYPERLINK mailto:hamzah.mazari hamzah.mazariGlobal B2B events consolidation aheadTowards a winner-takes-all modelKey pointsKey points Online extension of traditional events creates economies of scale, and we expect will lead to consolidation

5、. Informa has a first-mover advantage. At the other end of B2B, data/analytics aggregators emerge in a faster growing market. The “new” Ascential is best positioned in this segment. We initiate with Outperform on Ascential and a reluctant Neutral on Informa (STM price deflation). Reaffirm our Underp

6、erform rating on RELX.Consolidation in Exhibitions leads to super returnsThe events industry has remained conspicuously fragmented (top 10 players account for 27% of the global market) due to a lack of synergies from combining physical events. But we are now at the point where online platforms can s

7、uccessfully extend the reach of exhibitions and conferences beyond the location and dates of the actual event. We expect the size of the investments needed to develop the new technology and the economies of scale from a wide roll-out will demand consolidation. We argue the first event organiser to s

8、cale will rip disproportionate returns in the space: Informa has been a dynamic, though selective, acquirer of large events, and it is most focused on technology investments and new product launches (e.g. MarkitMakr).Next-gen B2B and the new data/analytics aggregatorsWhile this thematic report focus

9、es on event economics and their digital extension, many event organisers also operate in adjacencies like data, modelling and more recently analytics. The challenge for traditional players is to move beyond the bear data collection, and towards selling integrated systems that can be plugged directly

10、 into clients processes to generate revenues and reduce costs. There is a large opportunity to do that in the nascent ecommerce industry where Ascential is on track to become a global leader.Top picksAlongside this report we launch coverage on Ascential and Informa please see separate reports publis

11、hed today:Ascential is our top pick, with our target price showing over 50% upside to the current market price. There are some risks attached to further acquisitions and disposals, but we believe the stock is trading at the wrong multiple given its growthpotential.Informa should also be a strong out

12、performer, and it has the chance to consolidate and dominate the events industry. Informas Taylor & Francis (academic publishing), though, is exposed to similar downward pressure as RELXs Elsevier. We reluctantly launch coverage with aNeutral rating given structural risk in academicpublishing.RELX i

13、s a solid performer in events, but it is overexposed to scientific journals and the attrition from gold open access (please see our recent report HYPERLINK /%23/report?researchId=7369199 here). We reaffirm our Underperformrating.Please refer to page HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 23 for important disclosur

14、es and analyst certification, or on our website HYPERLINK /research/disclosures /research/disclosures.Global exhibition marketAccording to UFI, the Global Association of the Exhibition Industry, the global exhibitions market is worth just over $100bn, based on total spending by exhibitors and visito

15、rs. In 2017 there were c.31,000 exhibitions, featuring 4.4m exhibitors and attracting over 260m visitors.Event organisers, though, receive only about 20%-30% of total spend by event participants. The remainder is spent on travel, accommodation and other services. So the addressable market for the li

16、kes of Informa, Reed and Ascential is estimated at $25-30bn in 2018 (Fig 1). HYPERLINK /global-exhibitions-market-forecast-to-grow-4-to-2021-with-southeast-asia-high-on-the-radar-for-international-organisers/ Industry HYPERLINK /global-exhibitions-market-forecast-to-grow-4-to-2021-with-southeast-asi

17、a-high-on-the-radar-for-international-organisers/ forecasts point at a 4%-5% CAGR for global industry revenues, broadly in line with global GDP trends.Fig 1 Global Exhibition market expected to grow 4% to 5% vs 2% to 3% over the past few yearsFig 2 US Exhibition market (US$bn) to grow slightly slowe

18、r, from 4% to 3.5%2.7% 2.6%2.6%3.2%5.0%4.0%4.0%352.7% 2.6%2.6%3.2%5.0%4.0%4.0%302520151052021E2020E2019E2018E2017201620152014201302021E2020E2019E2018E20172016201520142013Global Exhibitionrevenues($bn)6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%94-11-16 3.3% 2.7% 3.5%2021E2020E2019E 3.6%2018E20172016 3.8% 3.1% 3.3%

19、2.7% 3.5%2021E2020E2019E 3.6%2018E20172016 3.8% 3.1%4.1%2015201420134.2%4.4%3.7%20122.8%20112010-3.6%2009-16.0%200820.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0%Note: Addressable market for event organisersSource: AMR International, Macquarie Research, June 2019Source: AMR International, Macquarie R

20、esearch, June 2019At a more granular level, there are significant differences in growth between regions, reflecting both different GDP growth and different level of maturity. The US, which accounts for 40% of the market (was 45% ten years ago), is the most mature market, growing low single digits, s

21、lightly below nominal GDP growth (Fig 2).In contrast, the Southeast Asia region is still relatively small (Fig 3), but is growing in line with faster GDP growth. Over the recent years, China has grown to be the second-largest market after the US, and it is still the fastest-growing market in the top

22、 5. The UK, Germany and France are closer to the US in terms of maturity, growing by low single digits, just below nominal GDP.Fig 3 Global exhibition market breakdown by geography (2018E)India1%1%Other 19%Spain 2%2%1%Turkey1%Russia2%Brazil 2%Italy 2%GCC 3%France5%China5%5%Source: AMR International,

23、 Macquarie Research, June 2019Overall, the 20 largest countries account for over 80% of the total, as exhibitions tend to concentrate traffic in a smaller number of locations. The growth in large venues is another trend, showing how quickly the industry is trying to achieve economies of scale: the w

24、orlds largest exhibition venue complex is scheduled to open in HYPERLINK /en/index.html Shenzhen in 2019.Three main players, all UK listedThere are a few pure play listed events companies (e.g. ITE, Emerald), but the largest companies we discuss in this report are typically diversified in other segm

25、ents (Fig 4-6). Informa is the one with the largest exposure to exhibitions (60%), followed by Ascential (32%, on a pro-forma basis) and RELX (16%).Fig 4 Informa Strong exposure to Fig 5 RELX Second player by size, Fig6Ascential Relativelysmallexhibitions since UBM integrationbut only 16% of group r

26、evsplayer globally, but 32% of groupOther Other 68%Other 68%Note: ProformaincludingUBM.Note: Excluding recent acquisition of MackBrooks. Note: Estimated post events sold to ITEGroup.Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2019Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2019Source: Company

27、data, Macquarie Research, June 2019Among the top players, Informa appears to have the most promising geographical mix. It is conspicuously over-indexed to China (Fig 7), with nearly twice as much exposure compared to the global industry share. Of course, the risk of an escalating US-China trade war

28、now looms over any company operating in China, an issue we discuss in more detail in our separate report on Informa published today.Fig 7 Informa full exposure to US and over-indexed to ChinaFig 8 RELX Light on North America, more exposed to RoWFig9Ascential Overexposedto EuropeNote: Proforma includ

29、ing UBM,InformaMarketNote: Excluding recent acquisition of MackBrooks, Note: Estimated post events sold to ITEGroup,and Informa Connect only.Source: Company data, MacquarieResearch, June2019exhibitions only.Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2019Money 20/20 and Cannes Lions only.Source:

30、Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2019in at a in in is in is Ascential is a special case, since it disposed of its UK exhibitions to ITE Group in 2018, retaining only major events Money20/20 and Cannes Lions. On a pro-forma basis, we estimate Ascential is overweight Europe (Fig 9), and it now h

31、as zero exposure to the UK, minimising the potential negative impact in the post-Brexit world. Analysis by vertical, though, is more useful for Ascential, given its high specialisation in the marketing, fintech and fashion segments.Still a fragmented industryA number of large Exhibition players are

32、UK-based and listed on the stock exchange, including Informa/UBM, RELXs Reed, Emerald (US-listed), ITE and Ascential (Fig 10). Another five privately held companies from Germany appear in the top 10 positions, including Messe Frankfurt/ Dusseldorf/Munchen/Cologne and Hanover.Fig 10 Three of the top

33、15 players listed in the UK (ranking by revenues 2018PF, $m) (2017)Fig 11 Top 15 players account for less than 30% of global revenues (2018)$ mn2,000.000.0$ mn2,000.000.000.000.000.000.0800.0600.0400.0200.0-5.4%Messe 2.9%GL 2.1%MCH 1.8%Messe Dusseldorf 1.6%Koelnmesse1.5%DeutscheMesse 1.5%OthersClari

34、on Events1.5%MesseMunchen64.8%Emerald 1.2%1.4%CFTC1.2%Messe Berlin1.2%Comexposium1.2%Ascential0.5%ITEHKTDC 1.1%Fiera Milano 1.2%Note: UK based firms in blue, Germany based in red. Source: Company data, AMR (2017), Macquarie Research, June 2019Note: Listed companies in bold; 2018 data (pro forma for

35、Informa UBM acquisition). Source: Company data, AMR, Macquarie Research, June 2019The exhibition industry remains conspicuously fragmented, with the top 20 players making up less than 35% of the global market (Fig 11). After the acquisition of UBM (2018), Informa is now the largest player in the ind

36、ustry, with nearly US$2bn in revenues, followed closely by Reed (100%- owned by RELX).We notice that government-affiliated bodies (e.g. Frankfurt Messe, CFTC, Messe Cologne, etc.) make up more than a quarter of the global industry, mostly concentrated in Germany and China. A great number of successf

37、ul shows developed independently, with a strong local connection (e.g. Germany trade show spaces sponsored by Municipalities) or by sector (e.g. trade shows owned by trade body associations).Another particularity of these government-affiliated operators is that they often own the premises, hence the

38、 name Messe + town, which means their revenues are not exactly comparable with pure event organisers. A higher degree of vertical integration was once seen as an advantage, but more recently it is becoming a hindrance as the market moves towards a genuinely global approach with successful events geo

39、-cloned into different regions.Appealing assets for private equity fundsSuccessful events typically achieve very high operating profit margins (40%+), in many cases generating substantial positive net working capital via sponsorship and space deposits that are paid in advance. For this reason the in

40、dustry has historically attracted the attention of private equity investors. Both Ascential and Emerald have a private equity history.In spring 2008, private equity firms APAX and Guardian Media Group acquired EMAP B2B assets at 12.1x EBITDA. EMAP had previously bought trend forecasting business WGS

41、N at 19x EBITDA in 2005. Some of the original EMAP assets were eventually rebranded as Ascential in 2015 and IPOed in February 2016.In 2006 a consortium of private equity firms acquired VNUs trade shows (VNU was then listed in the Netherlands) and renamed them Nielsen Exhibitions. The assets were th

42、en bought by another private equity firm (Onex) in 2013 and rebranded Emerald Expositions, which was finally relisted in the US in May 2017.inThe shift to strategic buyersMore recently, though, private equity funds appear to be facing growing competition from strategic buyers that are becoming more

43、dominant (Fig 12). The chart shows quite clearly how private equity dominated the 2000s, while strategic buyers are acquiring an increasingly large number of assets, at broadly similar multiples, before synergies.Fig 12 M&A activity in the wider B2B space has picked up substantially over the past fe

44、w years and acquirers now are more often strategic buyers (yellow) instead of private equity firms (blue)25.0 x20.0 xNielsen Media WGSNMoney EcobuildComexposiumClarionAdvanstarCloserstill MediaMedia LinkClavisNTM EV / EBITDA15.0 xNTM EV / EBITDAIncisive MC CommunicationAdvanstarEmaps Nielsen ExpoCEB

45、Ascential Events UBMMiller Freeman 10.0 xAC Nielsen5.0 xCanon HanleyNDC-HealthVNUDMGTs US RELXs ScreeningCloserstill MediaCanonUBM Data GLMInforma EvantaPentonHanley WoodMack BrooksPennWell Corp CEB (SHL)Mining IndabaGlobal ServicesxMetal BulletinRELXs VarietyJan-98Oct-00Jun-03Mar-06Dec-08Sep-11Jun-

46、14Mar-17Dec-19Source: HYPERLINK /KatalinLugosi/amr-international-market-trends-in-us-tradeshow-industry-2015 AMR Intl, Macquarie Research, June 2019Historically, all operators concurred that economies of scale were close to zero, as each event happens in a vacuum, both in terms of revenues and in te

47、rms of costs. But we find much evidence that there are indeed growing cost and revenue synergies. We highlight two factors in particular:Shift to digital creates cost synergies combining two traditional events in the past offered little in the way of cost synergies, as there were basically no shared

48、 functions and even using the same venue would have not allowed for any material savings. But in the digital world, tools created to boost online presence (Informas MarkitMakr is a good example) and manage data can be shared across a multitude ofevents. 20 a in a itisa So we are now seeing a growing

49、 number of strategic buyers. The combination of Informa-UBM attracted much attention as the largest ever deal in the industry (Informa also bought Penton in 2016). RELX just announced in January 2019 the largest acquisition since 2000 (Mack Brooks). Informa expects the deal with UBM to generate c.75

50、m in run rate synergies, which is about 25% of the UBMs standalone operatingprofit.The natural result of growing economies of scale is industry consolidation. Indeed, we predict a growing number of acquisitions by strategic buyers that may result in a winner-takes-all scenario.Events resilient to di

51、gital migrationIn 2000, B2B print magazines accounted for over half of US B2B media spend, with less than 5% from digital/online advertising and the remaining 41% from events (Fig 13). These days, we estimate it is only 21%, while events actually saw their share increasing to 46% of the total (Fig 1

52、4) and digital now accounts for a third.Fig 13 In 2000, print accounted for 55% of B2B media spend, Events 41%Fig 14 In 2018E, print is down to c.20% and digital increased to 33% of total (events grew by 5pp to 46%)Digital 4%Events41%DigitalDigital 4%Events41%33%Events 46%Print 55%Print 21%Source: V

53、SS, Macquarie Research,June2019Source: VSS, Macquarie Research, June 2019Compared to the rest of the media industry, B2B transitioned out of print relatively smoothly with most of the incumbents managing a gradual exit from magazines/newsletters. The resilience and continuous growth of face-to-face

54、events played an important role and continues to be pivotal to the industry.The growth story in Digital is well understood though with the exception of Ascential, which has dramatically pivoted in this direction in 2018, there are very few direct investment opportunities in the B2B space. In this re

55、port we focus on the quiet revolution underway in the events segment.Tradeshows and large events in general are long established as the preferred marketplace where industry participants meet to do business, establish/maintain their network and discover new information/products. More recently events

56、are also serving for wider functions, including recruiting talent, etc.The business model is still evolving to include new formats (e.g. experiential shows, hybrid events) and some sectors may eventually transition completely online (e.g. Alibaba for Retail Trade).Diversification towards data and e-

57、commerce services is important. But we highlight consolidation in Events as potentially the most important trend and the potential to achieve super returns for the first player to scale (winner-takes-all model).Trade shows are the most important part of B2B marketing budgetAccording to a HYPERLINK /

58、Web/Gartner/%7b0cd7db62-e5cd-4599-9bae-9b68f9a6148d%7d_GML_144560_Spend_Ebook_R1c.pdf?elqTrackId=9ab905ccc52746108f682a819d7cc78d&elqaid=975&elqat=2 recent survey by Gartner, B2B corporates spend on average c. 14% of their revenues on marketing. Put in other terms, the CMOs budget is nearly 4x bigge

59、r than the CIOs budget (estimated by Gartner at 3.4% of revenues, on average).The proportion of budget allocated to digital (e.g. paid search, content marketing, etc.) has steadily increased, but counter to some common perceptions, the importance of live events has remained stable, or even increased

60、 over time, according to two different surveys (Fig 15 and Fig 16).Fig 15 In 2000, trade shows accounted for 12% of overall B2B marketing budgetsFig 16 In 2015, events still account for a similar proportion of the overall B2B marketing budgetPrintVirtual WebsiteEventsAutomation, lead 6%6% 4%13%Event