全球浆纸：现在已经能看明白了

1、I can see clearly nowGlobal Pulp & PaperTHIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO MAINLAND CHINAI can see clearly nowGlobal Pulp & PaperPulpinventoryreductionatportsandpaper couldimplyBHKhikesincomingmonthsWe trim our pulp price assumptions for 2020 and 2021, though we expect spot prices to rise 30% in

2、 12-18monthsonon We in We in in is a We in We in a in to Buy Buy We of in in a We Key changes to ratings and estimates21 November 2019EquitiesEquitiesPaper & Forest ProductsJonathan Brandt, CFASr Analyst, LatAm Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:jonathan.l.bran

3、dt jonathan.l.brandt+1 212 525 4499Mariano Szachtman*Analyst, LatAm Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper HSBC Bank Argentina S.A. HYPERLINK mailto:mariano.szachtman.ar mariano.szachtman.ar+54 11 4121 7629* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuan

4、t to FINRA regulationsCompanyTickerCurrencyCurrent TP Rating Implied up/ Market cap priceOldNewOldNew downside3mADTV 2020e (USDm) EV/EBITDA ND/EBITDA Div yield(%)SuzanoSUZB3 BZBRL37.9245.00BuyBuy19%12,249577.43.71%KlabinKLBN11 BZBRL17.6121.75HoldBuy24%4,521158.84.24%CMPCCMPC CICLP1,8501,925HoldHold4

5、%5,87476.82.32%CopecCOPEC CICLP7,0307,275HoldHold3%11,60568.83.72%Source: HSBC, Refinitiv Datastream. Priced as of close at 19 November 2019Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which

6、forms part of it.Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) IncView HSBC Global Researchat:https: HYPERLINK / /Equities Paper & ForestEquities Paper & ForestProducts21 November20192Global Pulp & Paper sector valuation, calendar year-endBBGClosingTargetHSBC Mktcap PE (x) PBV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) _ Divyield

7、 (%) ROE(%) Netdebt/EBITDAAnalystCompany namecodeCcypricepriceratingUSDm2019e2020e2019e2020e2019e2020e2019e2020e2019e2020e2019e2020eLatAmBrazilDuratex*DTEX3 BZBRL14.0013.75Buy2,29823.012.59.26%2%9%9%2.31.6 Jonathan BrandtKlabin*KLBN11 BZBRL17.6121.75Buy4,521nm8.38.85%4%2%15%3.84.2 Jonathan BrandtSuz

8、ano*SUZB3 BZBRL37.9245.00Buy12,249nm8.93.01%1%-24%29%5.23.7 Jonathan Brandt OthersCMPC*CMPC CICLP 1,850.001,925Hold5,8743%2%1%4%2.82.3 JonathanBrandtCOPEC*COPECCICLP 7,030.007,275Hold11,6053%2%4%5%3.93.7 Jonathan BrandtMasisaMASISACICLP33.91NRNR33843.114.4nanananananana

9、nananaNotcoveredKimberly Clark*KIMBERAMM MXN38.2437.00Hold6,05723.320.221.318.912.911.94%4%91%99%1.81.6 Jonathan BrandtLatAm average6,1343%2%8%26%3.73.1Brazil average6,35623.09.87.93%2%-14%23%4.53.6Chile average5,93934.920.01.03%2%3%5%3.53.2EMEAMondiMNDI LNGBP16.70NRNR10,48511.312.07.24%4%

10、22%19%1.31.3Not coveredSappiSAP SJZAR39.92NRNR1,4801%6%3%11%2.32.6Not coveredStora EnsoSTERV FHEUR12.43NRNR11,10816.015.08.74%4%8%9%2.32.3Not coveredSCA ABSCAB SSSEK101.30NRNR7,40124.614.913.52%2%7%8%1.41.2Not coveredUPM-KymmeneUPM1V HEEUR30.55NRNR18,06515.08.89.44%5%11%10%-0.1-0.1Not coveredAverage

11、9,7084%4%12%11%1.01.0UnitedStatesBoise CascadeBCC USUSD37.99NRNR1,48120.617.82.01.98.07.43%1%11%11%0.80.7Not coveredDomtarUFS USUSD38.03NRNR2,20911.813.51.00.95.05.15%5%8%8%1.21.1Not coveredIntl. PaperIP USUSD45.97NRNR18,02610.512.0nana7.37.74%4%23%19%2.52.6Not coveredAverage8,00411.012.31

12、.01.07.47.04%4%14%14%2.82.5AsiaHengan*1044 HKHKD51.264.70Buy7,78214.79.08.85%5%24%24%1.41.5Lina Yan*Lee & Man*2314 HKHKD5.56.50Buy3,054%4%13%12%1.91.9Howard Lau*Nine Dragons*2689 HKHKD7.910.60Buy4,734%4%10%10%2.82.7Howard Lau*Nippon Paper3863 JPJPY1881.0NRNR2,02%2%1%5%7.06.3Not coveredOJI

13、 Paper3861 JPJPY617.0NRNR5,7692%2%9%9%2.92.6Not coveredVinda Intl.*3331 HKHKD14.618.30Buy2,22616.114.07.22%3%12%13%1.81.6Lina Yan*Average4,2634%4%14%14%2.52.4Global average7,0273%4%12%17%2.42.2Source: HSBC estimates for companies under coverage, I/B/E/S estimates for companies no

14、t under HSBC coverage; market data sourced from Refinitiv Datastream*Companies covered by HSBC; ratios have been calendarized and regional averages are market cap weighted. Data as of 19 November 2019.*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursu

15、ant to FINRA regulations.Green shoots emergingPulp prices, especially hardwood, have been under pressure over the past several quarters, driven by falling demand, de-stocking efforts by paper producers of both finished product and pulp, and increased pulp supply. As a result of falling demand and de

16、-stocking efforts, inventory became a key overhang on pulp prices. We had argued in our report, Global Pulp & Paper: The worst is over, but how soon until it improves? (16 September 2019), that pulp prices were close to trough levels, though a rebound in prices was dependant on a reduction in the es

17、timated 1.5mt of excess inventory levels.We had expected this inventory reduction to materialize over 3-4 quarters, though it appears to have largely taken place already. Suzano, the key market participant with excess inventories, has been able to reduce inventories significantly during the last few

18、 months. During its 3Q19 conference call on 1 November, the company stated that (1) it would monetize excess inventory of approximately USD500m, equivalent to roughly 1mt at the spot pulp price (implying that 500kts of inventory reduction had taken place in 3Q19), to help reduce debt and (2) that it

19、 has zero uncommitted inventory at two key Chinese ports, suggesting a further drawdown in excess inventory. While this volume may continue to show up in official port data, the fact that it has already been sold and is no longer available for sale should help with future price negotiations.Consiste

20、nt with Suzano management comments, according to pulp & paper consultant RISI, Suzano sold more than 1mt of pulp during the month of October alone, presumably mostly at fixed prices (given the stated commercial strategy announced earlier in the year). Comments on the companys 3Q19 earnings call indi

21、cated that the fixed portion of the volumes may have been sold around the USD450/t level. We believe the recent pulp demand increase has been motivated by Chinese paper producers expectations that pulp prices had troughed, as nearly 10% of global BHK capacity was loss-making, according to ourcalcula

22、tions.This caused significant restocking efforts by large Chinese paper producers and traders, with industry comments indicating large paper mills now have 3-6 months of pulp inventories, and any customers who have not secured volumes now facing BHK prices of up to USD480/t. Our conversations with a

23、 major Indonesian pulp & paper producer led us to conclude that any volume sold in November would likely be priced at USD460/t or higher.Inventories at Chinese ports might remain high for the next couple of months as paper producers take time to collect shipments bought at these lower prices, though

24、 industry sources point to upwards of 17ktpd of pulp being collected from Changshu port (compared to a total inventory of 720kt at the end of September).Pulp inventory at Chinese portsshould fallPulp inventory at Europeanports2,200-QingdaoChangshuBaodingZhuhai Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-

25、08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18Sep-19Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18Sep-19Jan-15Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-

26、18 Jan-19Jan-15Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19Apr-19 Jul-19GermanySwitzerlandSpainSource: UPM,RISI,HSBCSource: Europulp,HSBCPulp prices (USD/t)inChinaBHKP prices in China andEurope1,1001,000900800700600500May-18Nov-18May-19

27、Nov-19Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19400May-18Nov-18May-19Nov-19Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19May-17Nov-17BHKP -net pricesNBSK - netpricesMay-17Nov-17EU BHKP (USD/t)China BHKP net (USD/t)Source: RISI,FOEX,HSBCSource: RISI, FOEX,H

28、SBCWe believe that maintenance downtime is likely to help push through higher prices as well. Two major Asian producers, APP and Asia Symbol, plan to take downtime at two of their operations, reducing hardwood supply by 120kt during the month of November. APP plans to shut its mill in Indonesia for

29、12 days, and Asia Symbol plans to shut down in complex in Rizhao for 8-12 days for maintenance downtime. In light of shutdowns and restocking, Asia Symbol announced a hike of RMB100/t (USD14/t) for its pulp, effective immediately. The announced hike could be seen as indication for an improving situa

30、tion in the hardwood market.Chinesepaperproductionhasreboundedand so hasprofitability12,00011,00010,0009,0008,0007,0000%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%Jan-11Jan-13Jan-15Jan-17Jan-19Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Profit margins for Chinese Paper making and productsChina Paper and Paperboardproduc

31、tion (kt)enterprises (ytd basis)Source:NBS,HSBCSource: NBS,HSBCAnother key development is increasing paper production in China in recent months, which, combined with an uptick in paper product prices (and lower pulp input costs), has helped improve profitability of Chinese paper producers, which had

32、 come under pressure last year. The recent appreciation of RMB against USD has also benefitted the paper producers.& in a is a 9% Paper prices in China showing signs of reversalUSD/tRMB/t9007,0008006,0007005,0006004,0005003,000400Oct-16Apr-17Oct-17Apr-18Oct-18Apr-19Oct-19 Unbleached Kraftliner, 175

33、g+, export to China, C&F, ChinaHigh-strength corrugating medium, 120 g, East China - RHS Kraft-top liner, 170g, East China - RHSTestliner, 140 g, East China - RHSWhite-top liner, 140 g, East China - RHS2,000Source: RISI, HSBCPulp price forecastsWe continue to believe that pulp prices have troughed,

34、particularly given the encouraging data points of the last several weeks. Our base case assumes moderately higher pulp prices throughout 2020, culminating in an average price of USD513/t next year. Having said that, we would not rule out a sharper rebound in prices, as was witnessed in 2016 and 2017

35、. We have changed our pulp price forecasts, now using FOEX China (net) prices as the basis for our forecasts, instead of FOEX Europe previously. This change is due to Chinas increasing relevance in the global pulp market. This change has made direct comparisons to our previous forecasts difficult, b

36、ut, on average, prices have been revised downwards in 2019-2021, but medium- and longer-term prices are largely unchanged.HSBC pulp price forecastsUSD/t2018a2019e2020e2021e2022eBHKP China (net)760570513592600BSKP China (net)870632617692680Source: HSBCPackaging paper demand picking up in BrazilRecent

37、 macro indicators point to improvement in economic activity in Brazil. A strong rebound in investment and a modest rise of private consumption were the main drivers of the overall expansion. The uptick in consumer confidence and the acceleration of net job creation in September may represent early i

38、ndications of a more promising outlook. HSBC economists believe that domestic demand in the country could be supported by a credible fiscal outlook, sustainably lower inflation, a pickup in credit growth spurred by lower rates, and micro reforms, as well as greater consumer and business confidence.

39、Please see Brazil Outlook: Will 2020 finally be the year of recovery? (13 November 2019).According to data released by the Brazilian Corrugated Board Association (ABPO), corrugated shipments increased 2.6% y-o-y in October. Year to date, shipments are up 0.8% as compared to the same period last year

40、. We expect a modest pickup in 4Q19 given seasonality. Looking into 2020, we expect a more pronounced rebound in paper and packaging demand in Brazil, led by HSBCs above-consensus GDP growth expectation of 2.1%.Brazilian corrugated shipments are recoveringBrazilian packaging paper and cardboard pape

41、r demand is expected to rebound360340280260Jan-15Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16Jan-15Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-1910%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%1Q091Q101Q091Q101Q111Q121Q131Q141Q151Q161Q171Q181Q19Brazilian corrugate

42、d shipments (kt) Avg.monthlyCardboard & Packaging paperdemand (kt)y-o-y (%)Source: ABPO,RISI,HSBCSource: Iba, HSBCestimatesin in in to to are in in Suzano (SUZB3 BZ): Maintain Buy, TP BRL45.00 (from BRL50.00)Pulp prices are likely at trough levels after a prolonged sell-off, though we expect just a

43、modest increase in the upcoming quarters. We remain optimistic on the back of inventory reduction from Suzano, combined with increasing paper and pulp demand, particularly from China.Managements commitment to deleveraging and shareholder value-creation remains, something that we believe is underappr

44、eciated by the market. While the leverage ratio of 4.3x is high compared to what we view as a more reasonable ratio of c2x, we find opportunity for shareholders through the deleveraging process, aided by the low cost nature of their assets. We believe inventory destocking in 4Q19, slightly higher pu

45、lp prices and potential asset sales could reduce indebtedness significantly in the coming quarters, which the market is not adequately pricing in.Changes in estimatesWe have incorporated our new pulp price assumption into our model. The cut in our EBITDA estimates is primarily due to lower pulp pric

46、e assumptions.Change in estimatesBRLmunless Revised Previous %change statedotherwise201920202021201920202021201920202021Revenue25,62629,68132,91026,14931,72333,223-2%-6%-1%EBITDA11,02713,96116,71012,25416,05716,901-10%-13%-1%EBITDA margin43%47%51%47%51%51%EPS(BRL)Source:HSBC(2.67)4.255.57(0.72)5.765

47、.85271%-26%-5%HSBC vs consensusBRLmunless HSBC Consensus %difference statedotherwise201920202021201920202021201920202021Revenue25,62629,68132,91025,27027,10129,7751%10%11%EBITDA11,02713,96116,71011,00012,02513,9170%16%20%EBITDA margin43%47%51%44%44%47%EPS (BRL)Source: Bloomberg, HSBC(2.67)4.255.57(1

48、.42)1.762.7989%142%100%Valuation and risksOur DCF-based target price of BRL45.00 (from BRL50.00) is based on an 9.2% WACC in USD terms (9.0% previously changed due to change in debt to equity ratio), assuming a risk-free rate of 3.0% (unchanged), an equity risk premium of 5.5% (unchanged), a country

49、 risk premium of 0.8% (1.0% previously), an unlevered beta of 0.84 (unchanged), and a 2.5% terminal growth rate (unchanged). The reduction in the target price is primarily function of weaker pulp price forecasts. Our fair value target price implies 19% upside. We rate Suzano shares Buy as we believe

50、 its deleverage process will slowly materialize in the coming quarters with managements focus on improving ROIC, combined with moderately higher pulp prices in 2020e.Downside risks include a stronger BRL or weakness in pulp prices more than expected, which could have a material negative effect on pr

51、ofitability and leverage; continued slower economic growth in Brazil, which could have a negative impact on domestic paper consumption and hurt the companys ability to pass through higher costs; and lower-than-expected synergies or operational efficiencies from the merged operations.Financials &valu

52、ation: SuzanoBuyFinancial statementsYear to12/2018a12/2019e12/2020e12/2021eValuation dataYear to12/2018a12/2019e12/2020e12/2021eProfit & loss summary (BRLm)EV/sales3.0Revenue13,43725,62629,68132,910EV/EBITDA5.9EBITDA6,81411,02713,96116,710EV/IC1.7Depreciation & amortisation-1,563-7,533-3,896-3,711PE

53、*130.2nm8.96.8Operating profit/EBIT5,2513,49410,06612,999PB3.53.02.31.8Net interest-1,041-3,999-5,092-4,699FCF yield (%)5.53.410.612.7PBT163-6,4074,9747,357Dividend yield (%)2.2HSBC PBT163-6,4074,9747,357* Based on HSBC EPS (diluted)Taxation1552,826757161Net profit318-3,5785,7307,518HSBC net profit3

54、18-3,5785,7307,518ESG metricsCash flow summary (BRLm)Cash flowfrom operations5,1716,9009,450Capex-2,424-5,294-4,985Cash flowfrominvestment-21,963-11,055-3,985Dividends-210-602-600Change innetdebt76846,563-4,865Balance sheet summary (BRLm)Intangiblefixedassets34017,96917,969Governance No. of board Av

55、erageFemaleBoardIndicators12/2018amembers9dtenure(years)n/amembers(%)22.2rs independence(%)55.6FCF equity2,8431,7595,4656,534FCF equity2,8431,7595,4656,534Tangible fixed assets Current assetsCash & others Total assets Operating liabilities Gross debtNet debt17,02030,79925,48653,9334,34935,73810,2514

56、1,71418,8657,60999,90513,76864,42456,81441,65123,76312,475104,89213,62264,42451,94942,18529,67917,862113,38513,79665,36647,504EnvironmentalIndicatorsGHG emissionintensity*283.7Energyintensity*CO2 reductionpolicySocialIndicatorsEmployee costs as %ofrevenues9.4Employeeturnover(%)11.9Diversitypolicy* G

57、HG intensity and energy intensity are measured in kg and kWh respectively against revenue in USD 000sIssuer informationShareholders funds12,01217,328Shareholders funds12,01217,32822,46028,833Invested capital18,32457,17157,28658,175Shareprice(BRL)37.92Targetprice(BRL)Free floatSectorPaper & ForestPro

58、ductsRIC (Equity)Bloomberg (Equity) Market cap (USDm)SUZB3.SA SUZB312,249Country/RegionAnalyst ContactJonathan Brandt,CFA+1 212 5254499Ratio, growth and per share analysis10.919.729.147.931.215.826.6188.010.919.729.147.931.215.826.6188.027.747.763.5-92.7-82.4Revenue EBITDAOperating profit PBTHSBC EP

59、SRevenue/ICRevenue/IC(x)0.6ROICROE2.7-24.428.829.3ROA7.9-EBITDA margin50.743.047.050.8Price relative55.6045.6035.6025.6015.605.60 SuzanoRel to BOVESPA INDEX55.6045.6035.6025.6015.605.60Operating profit margin39.113.633.939.5EBITDA/net interest (x)3.6Source: HSBCNet debt/equity85.

60、2325.7230.1164.1Note: Priced at close of 19 Nov 2019Net debt/EBITDA (x)2.8CF from operations/net debt50.4Per share data (BRL)EPS Rep (diluted)0.29-2.674.255.57HSBC EPS (diluted)0.29-2.674.255.57DPS0.190.440.440.85Book value10.8612.8216.5021.18Klabin (KLBN11 BZ): Upgrade to Buy, TP BRL21.75 (from BRL