为什 么中国要以全球奢侈品市场两倍的速度增长

1、By:ErwanAntoineBelgeandAnne-LaureEquitiesLuxuryGoodsApril HYPERLINK / SPOTLIGHTPanda Luxury StaycationPlay video with Erwan Rambourg& report be part Why read this report?Recent RMB appreciation is supportive to sales with traveling Chinese, mostly inAsiaBut shifts in pricing, e-commerce, and travel

2、retail mean repatriation of growth in mainland China looks structural, growing at 12% vs 6% globally per our estimates in2019We see Kering, Swatch, Richemont, and SMCP (all Buys) and Burberry (Hold) well-placed to benefit from that repatriation ofgrowthThe pandas 2019 travel logWe have little doubt

3、that in 2019 Chinese consumption will once again help support global growth in the luxury sector. While there may be some short-term growth abroad, we believe that in the long run, luxury consumption in China itself will grow more. Two key themes we see playing out with Chinesetravel:Erwan RambourgG

4、lobal Co-Head of Consumerand RetailResearchHSBC Securities (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK mailto:erwanrambourg erwanrambourg+1 212 525 8393This year, we think that luxury consumption outside of China will benefit, particularly as the RMB has strengthened relative to key currencies in countries where luxury co

5、nsumption happens. Our traveling pandas tend to follow the money, particularly the weaker currencies, so this bodes well for luxury consumption outside of China. Other supportive factors include the easing of visas in many destinations, which makes it easier for Chinese tourists to travel, but we th

6、ink that the action will happen more in Asia than in Europe (security) and the US(cost).Long term, luxury consumption will happen incrementally at home. Key structural factors that discouraged luxury consumption in China in the past are resolving, and the progress made is already bearing fruit. As w

7、e noted in our recent report HYPERLINK /R/10/tXRmHMsZxP6K Too Bling to Fail (26 Feb 2019), a few years ago, 75% of Chinese luxury sales happened outside of China. We see that moving to 50-50 either this year or next. The structural factors supporting the increase in domestic consumption include the

8、harmonization of prices, which makes shopping abroad less appealing as the prices normalize; the continued development of e- commerce in China which facilitates easier shopping experiences; and investments in infrastructure and travel retail which encourage shopping at home. In our view, China becam

9、e margin-accretive last year for the sector and now stands to expand both the top line as well as the margins forluxury.Key stocks we think should benefit from the repatriation of luxury consumption in China include Kering, Richemont, SMCP, and Swatch, all rated Buy. We also discuss the implications

10、 for Burberry, on which we have a Hold rating. Per our estimates, these stocks have the greatest exposure to the Mainland in our coverage and therefore stand to benefit the most from the repatriation of growth. For a recap of other luxury themes and stock preferences, please refer to our recent HYPE

11、RLINK /R/10/tXRmHMsZxP6K Too Bling to Fail thematic report published 26 February 2019.Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Why readthisreport?1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Pandas travel andspend3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Relatedresearch4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Recommendedreading.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Recomme

12、ndedviewing.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Calendar of events5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 ExecutiveSummary6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Mainland China to grow at twice HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 the luxuryindustry pace6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Traveling pandas and HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 thestrongerRMB9 HYPERLINK l _boo

13、kmark9 This great big worldis calling9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Pandas traveling closetohome16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Expanding thepandashorizon27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Bringing it allback home32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Home is where theheart is32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 As growth heads home, HYPE

14、RLINK l _bookmark17 what aretheimplications?40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Companyprofiles44 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 SMCP44 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Richemont45 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Swatch46 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Kering47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 BurberryGroup48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Disclosureappe

15、ndix55 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Disclaimer60Pandas travel and spendStrong Chinese economy and high consumer confidence could fuel consumption and growthRepatriation of growth: Chinese luxuryspending is shifting to homeOverall luxury sales growth in 2019ecategories on which Chinese areGlobalGlobalaver

16、age12%MainlandChinaCosmeticsAccessoriesSalesabroadSales75% 25%75% 25%ShoesApparel2015SalesabroadSales50% 50%50% 50%PerfumeJewelry2020 making an encouraging environment for the Pandas travel and tourismHong KongFrance Japan USHong Kong is the top choice for where to purchase luxury goodsSame day and

17、overnight visits toHong Kong were up in 201840%China Italy UKKoreaSingaporeMacau Thailand OtherOnly 9% of Chinese had apassport in 20170%10%20%30%40%1st choice2nd choice3rd choice30%20%0%-20%HK same dayHKovernightSource: Sales abroad/sales at home: HSBC estimates; Luxury sales growth: HSBC estimates

18、; Hong Kong where to purchase: HSBC China Deluxe 2019, Toluna; 9% have a passport: Ctrip, Jing Travel 26 Jan 2018; Same day/overnight: Hong Kong Tourism BureauRelated researchRecommended reading. HYPERLINK /R/10/tXRmHMsZxP6K TooBlingtoFailWhyscaleshouldmatterevenforluxury26February2019 HYPERLINK /R/

19、10/LcVJpJrZxP6K oftheRedBulloftheDog:Chineseareback,butthatbe enough? 7 March2019 HYPERLINK /R/10/kCjCBB6ZxP6K ChinaDeluxe2019Checkinginonluxuryconsumptionin19February2019 HYPERLINK /R/10/nvxLRKJZxP6K ChinaDeluxe2018Anatomyofthefutureluxuryconsumer7March2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/tnpPdczZxP6K 11 HYPERLINK

20、 /R/10/QPSBWCFZxP6K LuxuryPricingRMBstrengthcouldstarttoadifference27February2019Recommended viewing. HYPERLINK /R/10/H6XhksgxvDYp?docid=1114607 Too Bling to FailWhy scale and M&A should matter even more for luxuryGlobal Co-Heads of Consumer and Retail Research, Erwan Rambourg and Antoine Belge, out

21、line the findings of our latest look into the worldwide luxury sector.26-Feb-2019 HYPERLINK /R/10/rLxPJMmxvDYp?docid=1114155 China Deluxe 2019Checking in on luxury consumption in ChinaErwan Rambourg, Global Co-Head of Consumer and Retail Research, reveals the findings of our second China Deluxe surv

22、ey into luxury spending in mainland China.19-Feb-2019Calendar of eventsCorporate calendar of events through H1 2019CompanyType of EventDateBurberryFY 2019 results16-May-19CapriQ4 2019 results28-May-19CapriQ1 2020 results6-Aug-19HermesQ1 2019 sales25-Apr-19HermesQ2 2019 sales23-Jul-19Hugo BossQ1 2019

23、 results2-May-19Hugo BossQ2 2019 results1-Aug-19KeringQ1 2019 sales17-Apr-19KeringH1 2019 resultsJuly, 2019LVMHQ1 2019 sales8-Apr-19LVMHH1 2019 results22-Jul-19MonclerQ1 2019 results9-May-19MonclerH1 2019 results24-Jul-19PradaH1 2019 results30-Jul-19RichemontFY 2019 results17-May-19RichemontQ1 2020

24、Trading update18-Jul-19Salvatore FerragamoQ1 2019 results14-May-19Salvatore FerragamoQ2 2019 results30-Jul-19SMCPQ1 2019 sales29-Apr-19SwatchH1 2019 resultsEnd of July, 2019TapestryQ3 2019 results29-Apr-19TapestryQ4 2019 results12-Aug-19TiffanyQ1 2019 results4-Jun-19TiffanyQ2 2019 results26-Aug-19To

25、dsQ1 2019 sales9-May-19TodsH1 2019 results7-Aug-19FHS dataMarch statistics18-Apr-19FHS dataApril statistics28-May-19FHS dataMay statistics20-Jun-19FHS dataJune statistics18-Jul-19Source: Company websites, Refinitiv, HSBC estimatesExecutive SummaryMainland China to grow at twice the luxury industry p

26、aceWe have little doubt that in 2019 Chinese consumption will once again help support global growth in the luxury sector. Globally, many countries stand to benefit from Chinese luxury consumption in the short term. But while there may be some short-term growth abroad, we believe that in the long run

27、, luxury consumption in China itself will be as relevant.This year, we think that luxury consumption outside of China will benefitin a HYPERLINK /R/10/LcVJpJrZxP6K of 7 is is a in HYPERLINK /R/10/QPSBWCFZxP6K HYPERLINK /R/10/QPSBWCFZxP6K so a in We in in We Chinese tourism data and estimatesin 000s2

28、01320142015201620172018*2018 vs 2017*CAGR13-182019evs1. Hong Kong40,74547,24845,84242,77844,44551,03814.8%4.6%56,0009.7%2. Macau18,63221,25220,41120,45422,19625,26113.8%6.3%27,80010.1%3. Thailand4,6374,6367,9648,7579,80610,5367.4%17.8%11,60010.1%4. Japan1,3142,4094,9946,3737,3568,38013.9%44.8%9,3001

29、1.0%5. Korea4,3276,1275,9848,0684,1694,79014.9%2.1%6,50035.7%6. Vietnam1,9081,9471,7922,6974,0084,96623.9%21.1%5,50010.7%7. Singapore2,2701,7222,1062,8643,2273,4165.9%8.5%3,5503.9%8. Malaysia1,7911,6131,6772,1252,2822,94429.0%10.4%3,0001.9%Lucky 875,62586,95590,76994,11697,489111,33114.2%8.0%123,250

30、10.7%Taiwan2,8753,9874,1843,5122,7332,696-1.4%-1.3%2,500-7.3%Australia7098401,0261,1991,3571,4325.5%15.1%1,5004.7%UK2881852702603373617.1%4.6%3753.9%US1,8072,1902,6293,0503,1743,145-0.9%11.7%3,1500.2%Dubai035045054076485712.2%25.1%95010.9%Total Outbound Total Domestic13.5%10.8%10.5%11.2%7.0%10.0%*It

31、alics are estimatesSource: JNTO, KNTO, DSEC, HKTB, STB, TTB, ABS, NTTO, DSC, OTTI, CEIC, ONS, HSBC estimatesLong term, we expect luxury consumption will happen at homeHowever, we remain convinced that the structural changes happening in China cannot be ignored.Inthelongterm,webelievethatluxuryconsum

32、ptionforChineseconsumerswillshift from happening abroad to happening at home. Key structural factors that discouraged luxury consumption in China in the past are resolving, driving the change in consumption patterns. These seismic shifts in Chinas luxury market include price harmonization; the conti

33、nued developmentofe-commerceplatformsandinvestmentsininfrastructureandtravelretailwhich encourage shopping athome.in HYPERLINK /R/10/tXRmHMsZxP6K a We or of in We flow is We in in HSBC Luxury Goods: Contribution of each geographic region to organic sales growth2007a 2008a 2009a 2010a 2011a 2012a 201

34、3a 2014a 2015a 2016e H1 2017a H2 2017a 2017a H1 2018a H2 2018e 2018e2019e2020eGeographic breakdownEurope42%42% 39%36%34%32%33%33%34%34%33%33%33%31%31% 31%30%29%Japan12%12% 11%9%8%8%7%7%8%8%8%8%8%8%8%8%7%US20%19% 18%18%18%18%19%19%20%20%19%19%19%19%19% 19%19%19%China3%5%8%10%10%10%10%10%11%11%11%11%1

35、2%12% 12%13%13%Rest of Asia & other22%23% 25%28%29%31%31%31%28%28%29%29%29%30%30% 30%31%31%Total100%100% 100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100% 100%100%100%Organic sales growth rateEurope13%5% -7%9%12%7%4%4%10%0%6%4%5%5%3%2%2%Japan6%-9% -15%-4%4%3%10%7%19%0%3%5%4%12%7% 10%4%2%US16%2% -

36、14%14%24%14%12%8%2%-2%5%6%6%10%8%6%7%China40%45% 30%45%47%19%11%5%1%6%15%21%18%15%15% 15%12%12%Rest of Asia & other22%13%23%27%14%10%5%-8%1%11%13%12%14%10% 12%9%9%Total15%6% -4%15%20%11%8%5%3.0%0.4%8%9%9%10%8%9%6%6%Source: Company data, HSBC estimatesHow Chinas luxury P&L has changed: peak, trough,

37、and 2018Global P&LFixedVariableChina Peak (2011-12)ChinaTroughChina in 2018Net sales100100100100Cost of goods30252730Gross profit70757370Gross marginStore expenseso/w personnel70%775%25%75%373%570%4o/w rents1050%50%687o/w D&A3100%343o/w other360%40%333Subtotal2365%35%152017G&A1480%20%172116Communica

38、tion770%30%141311Selling350%50%333Total operating expenses4769%31%495747EBIT23261623EBIT margin23%26%16%23%Source: HSBC estimatesKey stocks for which repatriation theme is relevantThe repatriation of growth carries significant implications for the luxury companies in our coverage.Asgrowthincreasingl

39、yshiftstoChina,notallluxurycompanieswillbepositionedto profit from this shift. We continue to expect a soft landing in luxury (highlighted in our 2019 outlook report HYPERLINK /R/10/K66rN2gZxP6K Expecting the unexpected, 8 Jan 2019), and as such, we believe that Kering, Richemont, SMCP, and Swatch (

40、all Buy) and Burberry (Hold) are well-positioned for greater domestic consumption inChina.Summary of ratings and target pricesTickerCurrencyCMPTP UpsideRatingMarket cap 2019e PE 2020e PE (USDm)2019e EV/EBITDA2020e EV/EBITDASMCPSMCP FPEUR15.3521.0037%Buy1,27016.9x12.7x7.0 x5.8xRichemontCFR SWCHF71.24

41、90.0026%Buy41,13123.1x19.3x11.3x9.5xSwatchUHR SWCHF281.10355.0026%Buy15,52014.9x13.4x7.1x6.2xKeringKER FPEUR502.00600.0020%Buy71,33018.7x16.8x12.4x11.0 xBurberryBRBY LNGBPp1,897.002,000.005%Hold10,29323.1x21.1x12.0 x10.5xSource: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates, priced as of 27 March 2019Traveli

42、ng pandas and the stronger RMBRecent RMB appreciation is supportive to sales with traveling Chinese consumers, mostly inAsiaWe forecast Chinese tourism growth in most key Asian marketsfor 2019, but expect Taiwan to continue toslowOutside Asia, we are bullish on tourism prospects for Asia but cautiou

43、s on Chinese travel to the US andEuropeThis great big world is callingChinese consumers were hungry to travel in 2018 and we expect that appetite to stay strong in 2019. We think the demand for travel and for luxury consumption will be supported by three key factors:A strong domestic economy and hig

44、h consumer confidence that can fuel consumption and growth, despite negativeheadlinesA stronger RMB that makes luxury consumption abroad in particular more attractive thanit has been in recentmonthsA more encouraging environment for traveling and tourism as visa requirements in many destinations hav

45、e eased for ChinesetouristsSolid domestic economy and confident consumersAs our economists explained in our 2019 HYPERLINK /R/10/kCjCBB6ZxP6K China Deluxe survey (19 Feb 2019), Chinese domestic consumption contributed significantly to GDP growth in 2018 (5.0 percentage points of total GDP growth of

46、6.6%), and our economists expect it to remain resilient in the future, despite the negative headlines. Income growth has been steady and household balance sheets have been healthy. Consumer confidence indices are still near 20-year highs and equity markets in China have recovered. While luxury consu

47、mption doesnt have specific lead indicators, some proxy indicators such as gaming revenue in Macau and “Old China” indices are high as well, indicating that luxury consumption could be supported. In the same proprietary survey, our Chinese consumers said that they were still willing to spend more on

48、 luxury this year. The top categories they were willing to spend more on were cosmetics, perfume and skincare; apparel; jewelry; shoes; and accessories. While some may worry that the trade and tariff tensions with the United States could affect the domestic economy and therefore the overall appetite

49、 for travel, our economists note that the domestic economy should still stay strong and that the tariffs should not affect the domestic economy too much as services is the largest sector (and therefore less likely to be impacted by thetariffs).In our 2019 China Deluxe survey, consumers still wanted

50、to spend more on luxury39%43%18%39%43%18%27%42%50%45%23%13%80%60%40%20%0%China2019China The sameLessUS 2018 Survey responses to the question “This year, will you spend less, the same, or more on luxury in general?” Source: HSBC China Deluxe survey 2019, Toluna1301251301251201151101051009590ConsumerC

51、onfidenceIndexConsumerSatisfactionIndexConsumer ExpectationsIndexSource: National Bureau of StatisticsChinas equity markets have recovered5,5005,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,500Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Aug-18 Jan-1934,00032,00030,00028,00026,

52、00024,00022,00020,00018,000Shanghai CompositeIndex(LHS)Shanghai-Shenzhen 300Index(LHS)HSI Index(RHS)Source: BloombergWe see a rebound in Macau gaming revenues1Q11 4Q11 2Q12 2012 3Q13 1Q14 4Q14 2Q15 2015 3Q16 1Q17 4Q17 2Q18 2018E 3Q19E 2020E60%1Q11 4Q11 2Q12 2012 3Q13 1Q14 4Q14 2Q15 2015 3Q16 1Q17 4Q

53、17 2Q18 2018E 3Q19E 2020E40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%GamesofFortuneVIPBaccaratMassSlotSource: DICJ, company data, HSBC estimates“Old China” lead indicators for luxury: average of manufacturing, property, and materials2,5002,2001,9001,6001,3001,000700Apr-12Jan-13Oct-13Jul-14Apr-15Jan-16Oct-16Jul-17Apr-18Jan-

54、19*Old China average comprises average of China manufacturing index, property index, Shenhua, and Baosteel. Source: BloombergA stronger RMBAs we outlined in our HYPERLINK /R/10/QPSBWCFZxP6K Luxury Pricing Barometer note this year (27 Feb 2019), the RMB has strengthened against key currencies, such a

55、s the EUR and the USD. The stronger RMB bodes well for luxury consumption outside of China, as Chinese consumers tend to shop after the weaker currency. We think that both the fashion trends and the proximity make countries like Japan appealing to our Chinese tourists, but as weve seen in our China

56、Deluxe surveys, France and other countries in Europe are always high on the aspirational destinations list.On the assumption that currency remains strong this year, we think that Chinese tourism will be supportive in many key markets abroad. HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Wheninor in We now is 2 aThe RMB h

57、as strengthened relative to the EUR0.1340.1320.130.1280.1260.1240.122Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19and the USD since our last edition of the Barometer in September 20180.150.1490.1480.1470.1460.1450.1440.1430.142Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19EURper RMBUSD per RMBSource: Refinitiv Datastream, Priced at 25March20

58、19Source: Refinitiv Datastream, Priced at 25 March2019Its also stronger relative tothe GBPthe JPY0.1160.1150.1140.1130.1120.1110.1100.1090.108Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19GBP per RMB16.916.716.516.316.115.915.715.5Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19JPY per RMBSource: Refinitiv Datastream, Priced at 25March2019Source: Ref

59、initiv Datastream, Priced at 25 March2019the KRWand recently strengthened against theTHB1704.851684.801664.751644.701624.651604.60Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19KRW per RMBTHB per RMBSource: Refinitiv Datastream, Priced at 25March2019Source: Refinitiv Datastream, Priced at 25 March2

60、019Price comparisons by region for brands key iconic products (actual figures) UKUSBottega VenetaIntrecciato nappaIntrecciato Oro Bruciato Knot113085VBHQ080092,8002,5203,580423,3604,445,00027,50027,4004,80013,500 132,3004,5303,240Intreccio knotMedium Grey Intrecciato Faille Moire Stretch202031VHIH88