全球能源转型系列：太阳能系统的建模与设计

1、Global Research2 March 2020Global Energy Transition Call Series Expert Call: Solar system modeling and design; Slide deck & transcriptWe hosted a call with Aurora SolarWe hosted a call with Aurora Solar COO and Co-Founder Samuel Adeyemo. On the call we discussed Aurora Solars solar system design sof

2、tware which can help drive down soft costs and accelerate the pace of solar adoption. The call was part of our ongoing UBS Energy Transition Call Series which aims to deepen clients understanding of the on-going energy transition. If you would like to schedule a call with Jon to discuss this or any

3、other topic of interest, please click here: https:/bit.ly/341MYYt.Key takeaways from the presentationThe views expressed below are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of UBS.Aurora provides all-in-one solar design, financial analysis, and sales software aimed at driving down so

4、lar soft costs.Solar soft costs now comprise 64% of total solar installed costs, w/ the share of soft costs continuing to increase over time. The absolute level of soft costs has been relatively constant as equipment costs have declined. Aurora sees a reduction in solar soft costs as a key component

5、 to enabling solar to become a significant portion of world energy mix.Auroras software solution enables solar professionals to more quickly and accurately answer 3 critical questions without traveling to the customer site: 1) How many panels will fit on a property? 2) How much energy will the syste

6、m produce 3) What is the expected utility bill savings?Aurora estimates its software can save installers $800 per residential solar installation, or approximately 5% on a $20k system. For commercial installs savings could be up to 10-20 x this amount.Out of top 10 U.S. installers, 60-70% are existin

7、g Aurora clients. Aurora estimates approximately 1/3 of the industry is not capturing any of the potential software- enabled benefits, while another 1/3 is only partially utilizing software.Slide deck & transcript enclosedIn this note we republish the slide deck from the call, courtesy of Aurora Sol

8、ar. A transcript from our call follows the slide deck.EnergyGlobalEquitiesJon Windham, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:jon.windham jon.windham+1-617-478-4711Daniel Ford, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:dan.ford dan.ford+1-212-713-2224Sam Arie Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:sam.arie sam.arie+44-20-7567 1107William

9、 Grippin, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:william.grippin william.grippin+1-617-478 4740 HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 42. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies

10、 covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.March Call ScheduleRegistration l

11、inks below, all calls held at 11am Eastern Time, except as notedEnergy Transition Series call scheduleMar 10: Commercial scale nuclear fusion w/ ITER: https:/bit.ly/2PDsC2XMar 11: EV vehicle-to-grid technology management w/ Nuvve: https:/bit.ly/2us95ecMar 12: Utility scale solar development in India

12、 w/ Azure Power: https:/bit.ly/2SZ4QQEMar 13: U.S. wind market update w/ AWEA: https:/bit.ly/2w5VSYUMar 20: Optimizing renewables integration w/ Apparent: https:/bit.ly/2uOVHkEMar 25: Modular nuclear fusion technology w/ CFS Energy: https:/bit.ly/2VwIuYPMarch Call DetailsEnergy Leaders: Commercial s

13、cale nuclear fusion reactors w/ ITER. Tuesday, March 10, 2020 11:00am ET. ITER is a multi-governmental partnership currently constructing the largest nuclear fusion reactor in the world. The reactor, which is schedule for 2025 first start, is expected to provide real-world demonstration of the poten

14、tial for net fusion energy production. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Leaders: EV vehicle-to-grid technology management w/ Nuvve. Wednesday, March 11, 2020 11:00am ET. On the call we will discuss Nuvves bi-directional EV charging system, which enables EVs to provide g

15、rid services when plugged in and charging. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Leaders: Utility scale solar development in India w/ Azure Power. Thursday, March 12, 2020 11:00am ET. Azure Power is a leading India solar developer and independent power producer. Azure curren

16、tly has a portfolio of over 5GW of solar projects. On the call we will discuss key issues and trends in the Indian solar market. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Expert: U.S. wind market update w/ AWEA. Friday, March 13, 2020 11:00am ET. On the call we will review AWEAs

17、 latest research and market outlook for the U.S. wind market. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Leaders: Optimizing renewables integration & aggregation w/ Apparent. Friday, March 20, 2020 11:00am ET. On the call we will discuss Apparents enterprise software and connecte

18、d hardware which can improve clean energy integration by providing real-time signals to optimize the management and use of energy. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Leaders: Modular nuclear fusion technology w/ CFS Energy. Wednesday, March 25, 2020 11:00am ET. CFS was sp

19、un out of MIT with the goal of delivering the fastest path to commercial fusion energy. On the call we will discuss CFSs progress towards this goal including the unique attributes and challenges associated with producing net fusion energy. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Prev

20、ious conference callsDateGuest speakersTopic28-Feb-20EVConnectCloudbasedEVcharge management27-Feb-20Global CCS InstituteStatus of carbon capture & storage26-Feb-20Absaroka EnergyPumped hydro energy storage25-Feb-20Intersect PowerUtility scale renewables development24-Feb-20TerraPowerAdvanced nuclear

21、 energy systems14-Jan-20GreenFluxOS for EV charge networks17-Dec-19IEAGlobal renewables outlook12-Dec-19Waste ConnectionsPeople & culture10-Dec-19SolpadResidential battery storage9-Dec-19World Nuclear AssociationGlobal nuclear power trends5-Dec-19Aurora SolarDistributed solar planning & design4-Dec-

22、19Waste ManagementPeople First focus4-Dec-19Sunflare SolarFlexible CIGS solar module technology3-Dec-19Casella WasteDeep dive on recycling21-Nov-19LBNLWind & solar growth, cost, and value19-Nov-19GeneracResidential solar & storage18-Nov-19ChanjeEV opportunity for proactive utilities14-Nov-19LBNLGrid

23、 connected PV trends13-Nov-19NGVAmericaNatural gas vehicles15-Oct-19SkysailsHigh altitude kite wind power14-Oct-19ElectronBlockchain systems for the energy system11-Oct-19Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryRate design for behind the meter storage7-Oct-19RMIClean energy portfolios and stranded asse

24、ts4-Oct-19WePowerDigitally enabled PPAs3-Oct-19NRELBatteries to provide peaking capacity2-Oct-19AMPLY PowerEV fleet charging20-Sep-19EnphaseFuture of solar inverter technology17-Sep-19RES GroupThe evolution of renewable PPAs12-Sep-19Momentum DynamicsWireless EV charging11-Sep-19NRELU.S. solar market

25、 update23-Jul-19UBS AnalystPower, Utilities, and Alt Energy 2Q preview23-Jul-19NRELUsing data to drive down wind cost18-Jul-19Twing TecAirborne wind energy16-Jul-19UBS Asset ManagementEngaging with corporates on climate change11-Jul-19Key Capture EnergyBuilding large scale energy storage projectsDat

26、eGuest speakersTopic10-Jul-19Ampyx PowerTethered wind energy systems8-Jul-19kWh AnalyticsAssessing solar project risk25-Jun-19NantEnergyZinc air energy storage19-Jun-19Cinnamon EnergyResidential battery storage14-Jun-19Global CCS InstituteGlobal carbon capture and storage trends13-Jun-19IRENARenewab

27、le cost decline potential7-Jun-19AWEAU.S. wind market update21-May-19IEAGlobal energy and emissions trends10-May-19NRELCommunity choice aggregation30-Apr-19NRELU.S. solar market outlook26-Apr-19RMIClean energy portfolio economics25-Apr-19Yale Program on Climate ChangeClimate change public opinion16-

28、Apr-19eMotorWerksEV grid management15-Apr-19WiTricityWireless EV charging11-Apr-19TeraloopKinetic energy storage29-Mar-19eCarUpEV charging28-Mar-19HASIBehind the meter opportunity22-Mar-19SEPATransactive energy systems21-Mar-19NEC Energy StorageLithium ion battery storage20-Mar-19EvgoEV fast chargin

29、g15-Mar-19IATAAirline climate change impacts14-Mar-19SEDGDeep dive on diversification strategy8-Mar-19RMIEconomics of zero energy homes5-Mar-19EOS StorageLithium ion battery alternatives28-Feb-19American WindDistributed wind power27-Feb-19FabriqEnergy efficiency26-Feb-19EPA4th National Climate Asses

30、sment25-Feb-19EIA2019 Annual Energy Outlook20-Feb-19CorPower OceanWave energy12-Feb-19IRENAGeopolitics of the energy transition22-Jan-19NRELElectrifying the US energy system22-Jan-19UBS Analyst4Q18 earnings preview9-Jan-19Rocky Mountain InstituteCorporate demand for renewables8-Jan-19AmpionCommunity

31、 solar4-Jan-19UBS Global AnalystChina Recycling restrictions19-Dec-18UN working group on climate changeGlobal warming mitigation & impacts13-Dec-18UBS AnalystUS demand for new generation capacity13-Dec-18Ascend AnalyticsEconomics of grid battery storage7-Dec-18American Wind Energy Association2019 US

32、 wind outlook & trends6-Dec-18RSG managementTalent Management3-Dec-18WM managementVolume outlookDateGuest speakersTopic30-Nov-18DNVGLEnergy outlook to205029-Nov-18Momentum DynamicsHigh powered wireless EV charging28-Nov-18FerroampSmart home energy devices20-Nov-18Smart Electric Power AllianceTrends

33、in U.S. battery storage market16-Nov-18Ice EnergyIce storage for peak load reduction9-Nov-18PolyJouleInnovative mass market battery storage2-Nov-18Bureau of Ocean Energy ManagementU.S. offshore wind market26-Oct-18SunnovaLargest private residential solar company22-Oct-18UBS Global AnalystGlobal rene

34、wable energy trends18-Oct-18Lawrence Berkeley Natl LabsTrends in the US wind & solar markets18-Oct-18UBS Analyst3Q18 earnings preview, Utility & Alt. Energy16-Oct-18Highview PowerLiquid air energy storage technology12-Oct-18American Wind Energy AssociationUS wind market Q&A11-Oct-18SolarReserveSolar

35、 & integrated storage developer10-Oct-18Ecogy SolarDistributed solar developer9-Oct-18ReThink XEV impacts on global energy systems5-Oct-18HEVOWireless EV charging4-Oct-18UETGrid scale flow batteries25-Sep-18TolvikUK & Ireland Waste-to-Energy outlook19-Sep-18WCN managementFocus on MSW pricing strateg

36、y18-Sep-18CWST managementNew England waste market dynamics17-Sep-18ORA managementLong-term growth strategy13-Sep-18ESS Inc.Grid scale flow batteries12-Sep-18NRELUS solar & storage markets10-Sep-18ADSW managementMarket selection strategy6-Sep-18SenseSmart home energy devices28-Aug-18Ionic MaterialsHi

37、gh performance battery materials22-Aug-18Halo EnergyDistributed wind generation OEM21-Aug-18UBS Global AnalystChina Recycling restrictions20-Aug-18Sistine SolarSolar module aesthetics16-Aug-18Trident WindsCA floating offshore wind developer13-Aug-18UBS Global AnalystEU wind OEMs sector launch19-Jul-

38、18UBS Global AnalystTrade war implications11-Jul-18American Wind Energy AssociationUS wind market26-Jun-18Smart Electric Power AllianceUS solar market7-Jun-18UBS Global AnalystGlobal renewables outlook4-Jun-18UBS Global AnalystChina Recycling restrictions24-May-18UBS AnalystImplications of CA solar

39、mandates7-May-18Smart Electric Power AllianceUtility integration of Electric Vehicles27-Apr-18UBS AnalystOffshore wind outlook28-Mar-18IRENAUS energy storage marketVideo replays from previous callsEngaging corporates on climate change w/ UBS Asset Management: linkU.S. renewable cost, performance, an

40、d value w/ LBNL: linkClimate change impacts w/ EPA: linkEV fleet charging as a service w/ AMPLY: linkCasella Waste (CWST) Future of recycling: linkThe trillion dollar EV opportunity w/ Chanje: linkTranscripts & slide decks from previous callsEnergy StoragePotential for batteries to provide peaking c

41、apacity w/ NREL: linkRate design impact on behind the meter storage w/ LBNL: linkThe economics of grid storage w/ Ascend Analytics: linkThe US storage market w/ SEPA: linkIron flow batteries w/ ESS: linkVanadium flow batteries w/ UET: linkLiquid air energy storage w/ Highview Power: linkPotentially

42、disruptive battery tech w/ Ionic Materials: linkScalable, safe, long-duration energy storage w/ Eos: linkFlywheel energy storage w/ Teraloop: linkResidential energy storage w/ Cinnamon Energy: linkGrid connected batteries w/ NantEnergy: linkWind, solar and other renewable generationWind & solar grow

43、th, cost, & value w/ LBNL: linkEvolution of renewable PPAs w/ RES Group: linkDigitally enabled PPAs w/ WePower: linkU.S. distributed solar trends w/ Lawrence Berkeley Labs: link1Q19 U.S. wind market update w/ AWEA: linkCost competitiveness of US wind & solar w/ Lawrence Berkeley Labs: linkU.S. solar

44、 outlook w/ NREL: link1Q19 solar market update w/ NREL: linkOff-shore wind w/ BOEM: linkUsing data to drive down wind costs w/ NREL: linkDistributed wind generation w/ American Wind: linkThe outlook for US wind demand w/ AWEA: linkOutlook for UK waste-to-energy w/ Tolvik: linkCommunity solar w/ Ecog

45、y Energy: linkThermal solar & storage w/ SolarReserve: linkRenewable cost decline trends & outlook w/ NREL: linkAssessing solar project risk w/ kWh Analytics: linkAirborne wind energy w/ Ampyx Power: linkHigh altitude kite wind power w/ SkySails: linkTethered aircraft wind energy w/ Twing Tec: linkF

46、lexible CIGS solar modules w/ Sunflare Solar: linkThe Energy TransitionEvolving US energy system w/ NREL: linkLong-term forecast for energy transition w/ DNVGL: link2019 Annual Energy Outlook w/ EIA: linkThe geopolitics of the energy transition w/ IRENA: linkCorporate renewable demand w/ RMI: linkAv

47、iation industry climate change strategy w/ IATA: linkFuture of alternative fuel in the aviation industry: linkTransactive energy systems w/ SEPA: linkClean energy portfolio economics w/ RMI: linkClean energy portfolios and stranded asset risk w/ RMI: linkCommunity choice aggregation w/ NREL: linkCar

48、bon capture and storage w/ Global CCS Institute: linkNatural gas powered vehicles w/ NGVAmerica: linkBlockchain systems for the energy sector w/ Electron: linkElectric Vehicle ChargingEV fleet charging as a service w/ AMPLY Power: linkThe trillion dollar EV opportunity w/ Chanje: linkThe bull case f

49、or EV penetration w/ ReThinkX: linkWireless EV charging w/ Momentum Dynamics: linkWireless EV charging update w/ Momentum Dynamics: linkWireless EV charging w/ HEVO: linkEV fast charging w/ EVgo: linkEV infrastructure w/ eCarUp: linkWireless EV charging w/ WiTricity. linkSmart EV charging w/ eMotorW

50、erks: linkSmart HomeSmart home energy w/ Sense: linkClimate ChangeClimate change w/ UN: linkClimate assessment w/ EPA: linkClimate change public opinion w/ Yale: linkEngaging corporates on climate change w/ UBS Asset Management: linkManagement callsSolaredge (SEDG) Diversification strategy: linkEnph

51、ase (ENPH) Future of inverter technology: linkGenerac (GNRC) Solar + storage: linkWaste Connections (WCN) People & culture: linkWaste Connections (WCN) Pricing strategy: linkWaste Management (WM) Volume outlook: linkWaste Management (WM) People First foccus: linkRepublic Services (RSG) Talent retent

52、ion: linkAdvanced Disposal (ADSW) Market selection: linkCasella Waste (CWST) Future of recycling: linkCasella Waste (CWST) Northeast waste market: linkHannon Armstrong (HASI) Behind the meter opportunity: linkThis presentation was produced solely by Aurora Solar. The opinions expressed herein do not

53、 necessarily reflect the views and opinions of UBS. UBS accepts no responsibility for the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and will not be liable either directly or indirectly for any loss or damage arising out of the use of this presentation or part thereof.Reproduced with p

54、ermission.Figure 1: Slide 1Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 2: Slide 2Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 3: Slide 3Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 4: Slide 4Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 5: Slide 5Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 6: Slide 6Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 7: Slide 7Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 8: Slide 8Source: AURORA

55、 SOLARFigure 9: Slide 9Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 10: Slide 10Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 11: Slide 11Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 12: Slide 12Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 13: Slide 13Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 14: Slide 14Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 15: Slide 15Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 16: Slide 16Sour

56、ce: AURORA SOLARFigure 17: Slide 17Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 18: Slide 18Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 19: Slide 19Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 20: Slide 20Source: AURORA SOLARFigure 21: Slide 21Source: AURORA SOLARWe present below a transcript of our recent call with Samuel Adeyemo of Aurora Solar. We

57、have edited the transcript below for clarity. Minor grammatical changes that do not impact the meaning of content have been applied. The opinions expressed by Samuel herein do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of UBS. UBS accepts no responsibility for the accuracy, reliability or comple

58、teness of the information and will not be liable either directly or indirectly for any loss or damage arising out of the use of this information or any part thereof.UBSModerator: Jon Windham December 5, 201911:00 AM ETJonWelcome, everybody, to our latest UBS Energy Transition Call. This is Jon Windh

59、am. I head up Alternative Energy and Environmental Services Equity Research here at UBS. This is another in our continuing call series on the Global Energy Transition, in which we attempt to connect energy experts and innovative companies that are enabling the energy transition with UBS clients.On t

60、he call today we have with us Aurora Solar, and well discuss Aurora Solars solar system design software which can help drive down the soft cost of installation and accelerate the pace of solar adoption. Were very pleased to have with us today Samuel Adeyemo. Samuel, I apologize if I pronounced that