漫谈金融全球化课件

1、漫谈金融全球化魏尚进纯属个人观点, 言责自负文献小结:金融全球化, 理论上好处一条接一条;费尽吃奶尽, 实证的效果不妙也不巧.综述文章:Prasad, Rogoff, Wei, and Kose, IMF, 2003Kose, Prasad, Rogoff, and Wei, 2005 (JEL?)TurkeyIndiaU.S.A.ChinaBenefits of Financial Integration: TheoryDirect ChannelsEfficient international allocation of capitalFor capital-poor economiesl

2、ower cost of capital, higher investmentSpillovers of technological and managerial expertiseBenefits of Financial Integration: TheoryIndirect ChannelsDomestic financial sector developmentSpecializationDisciplining device for macro policiesBenefits of Financial Integration: TheoryEffects on Volatility

3、No strong implication for output volatilityConsumption smoothing via international risk sharing= Lower consumption volatilityGrowth Benefits of Financial Integration: EvidenceAbout 20 studies of growth effectsNo effect: 4Mixed:12Positive: 4閾值效应 (Threshold Effect):政府缺良治, 金融开放则危机增发百姓更吃苦;政府有良治, 金融开放则投资

4、增加生活有出路.例子:新加坡, 香港阿根廷, 刚果文献: Wei, 2000; Alfaro, Kalemli-Ozcan and Volosovych, 2003;Klein, 2005; Chinn and Ito, 2005.组合效应 (Composition Effect):国际银行贷款两刃刀, 危机增加效率也难保;国际直接投资效果好, 资本增加风险又减少.例子: 中国 vs. 阿根廷文献: Frankel and Rose; Kose, Prasad, Rogoff, and Wei; Frankel and Wei.The composition hypothesisNot all

5、 capital flows are equalFDI and maybe portfolio inflow are more beneficial to growth than debtDesoto and Reisen 2001; Bekaert, Harvey, and Lundblad, 2005, JFEFDI is also less volatile than international bank loans - More reliance on bank loans increases vulnerability to currency crashes Frankel and

6、Rose, 1996; Frankel and Wei, 2005Volatility of (FDI/GDP) and (Loan/GDP) (1980-2003, Measured by Standard Deviation)FDI/GDP Loan/GDPVolatility of (FDI/GDP) and (Loan/GDP) (1980-2003, Measured by Coefficient of Variation)FDI/GDP Loan/GDP閾值效应 与组合效应:文献中提出为两个独立的解释两者是否可能是同一硬币的两面?魏尚进 (2000, 2001); 魏尚进与武屹 (

7、2002)Corruption is linked to a composition of capital inflows away from FDI and towards bank loans.Feira and Mauro (2005): Higher institutional quality - higher share of “equity-like” capital flows in total foreign liabilities.反对意见: Albuqurque (2004 JIE): worse credit rating related to more (not les

8、s) FDI/total inflows.即使成立, 怎么知道是因果关系?迎击挑战:金融体制与其他政府良治指标 对外来资本组合的影响可能不一.寻找工具变量 来确认因果关系.金融体制与其他政府良治指标 对外来资本组合的影响可能不一.鞠建东 与 魏尚进 (2005), Caballero, Farhi, and Gourinchas (2005):Low financial development + Low K/L ratio- inward FDI + capital outflow寻找工具变量 来确认因果关系.需要IV for corruptionIV for financial insti

9、tution腐败的工具变量:殖民成本 initial mortality of European colonizers殖民过程代价高, 政权掠夺又残暴;殖民容易象过桥, 民众财产有担保.谁先想出? Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson例子:非洲 与 澳洲墨西哥 与 加拿大金融体制的工具变量:法律体系的渊源 (legal origin)英美式的法律体系更多保护股权人债权人利益英美common law, 制约百姓也限当权;法西civil law, 表面公平实偏特权.谁先想出? La Porta, De-silanes, Shleifer & Vishny例子:美国 与 法国墨西哥 与 加拿大注意:Settler mortality and legal origin are not highly correlated.实证结果:腐败越高, FDI 的比重就越低 (外国银行贷款的比重就越高). 我2000的假说