中国石油天然气上下游基金投资风险管理策略ppt课件

1、Proactive Structural Strategic China/GLobalFund Risk Management China/Global oil, gas ,housing industry market fundamental mechanism, risks Early Warning Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA) 中國石油天然氣上下游基金投資風險管理战略 Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on China/Global Macro-economic Control, Oil, Ga

2、s, Housing demand, pricesMechanism and Investment Risks Simulation/Forecasts Warren Huang ( 黃華南博士) ,Ph D,Founder/CEOOSA Global Strategic Managementwh3928yahoo/ osawhhsina Revision for China Fund World , Pudong Conference, March 5,2021.Lecture Summary Proactive Structural Risks Mechanism Operations S

3、imulation Analysis OSA Methodology: Two master hands controlling last 20 years Global energy,housing,asset price bubble burst Mechanism, Allocation Fund Risks early warning1. China/Global Country Risks : Macro economic control, housing bubble burst, mortgage crisis policy impact on inflation, recess

4、ion, interest rates analysis 2. Currency Risks: Interest rate, trade surplus impact on RMB, global currency market forces mechanism, currency crisis forecasts 3. Credit Risks: Oil, gas, China/Foreign players cash flow, profits, housing price bubble burst impact on credit rating and loan defaults ris

5、k4. Operational Risks: All phases of oil, gas, power, banking, finance, daily trading, profit performance risks reporting, monitoring, simulation. 5. Market Risks: Proactive VaR pricing for housing ,banking, finance oil, gas, demand, performance, stock, derivatives prices dynamics mechanism forecast

6、 6. Causes, onset, recovery of disaster, energy,banking,mortgage, financial crisis, asset prices bubble, debt, equities, properties NPL 7. Risks Hedging: Oil, gas, currency, interest rate futures, derivatives prices forecasts, risks hedging. 8. Corporate Governance: Operating, Cost, Financial accoun

7、ting data tracking, asset price bubble and scandals cycles earning warning 9 M/A , IPO Risks :Joint ventures, pre and post M/A and IPO performance, stock prices, risks tracking. .OSA challenges the unknown futures, fight competition, maximize Risk adjusted return in oil, gas ,fund investmentDr. Huan

8、g over 30 year develop, implemented structural dynamic risks and return simulation, He pioneered two master hands controlling global economy, finance, capital market asset prices: extensive information knowledge base development Out of 1972 -2021 ( daily Wall Street Journals, Business Week, trading

9、data, internet market and economic analysts, technical analysis, Monte Carlo, Risk Metric statistical analysis fail to track asset prices.He Trained thousands Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai, Fudan, Peking University faculties,students, applied his Ph.D thesis Moon-landing guidance and control to challeng

10、e the unknown future He patented “ Improve Process by OSA in US and 82 countries, 1980, published thousands articles on US, Taiwan and China government, banking, finance, investment daily news papers, and on US Oil & Gas Journal journal predicted global oil, gas, currency, interest, stock futures pr

11、ices since 1980 He lectured China, Taiwan, US 15 cities ( , Shanghai, Taipei, San Francisco Silicon Valley) TV, radio , OPEC petroleum ministers, executives China/global strategic investment risk management workshops to 30 million investors, banking finance, enterprises CEO, executives since 1983.He

12、 predicted years/month ahead of 1987 US stock crisis, Asian Financial crisis 1997, US asset bubble burst 2000 and current China/US rate hikes, soaring oil, gas, commodities prices on his osawh website and predicted on Sept 2007 Wall Street Journal Street Market Beat, Real Time Economics blog that US

13、 rate cuts can not stop housing price slump resulted economic recession continue into 2021 summer and US, global stocks, fund, bear markets correction,.Country Risks OSA :Monetary policy, WTO impact on inflation, GDP growth 貨幣財經政策入世對中外宏觀調控影響Excessive money supply, rate cuts,DFI resulted soaring comm

14、odity, asset prices and falling US dollar push inflation and GDP higher exportMonetary policyForeign direct investmentBusiness demandFixedinvestmentConsumer demandMacro-economic inflation and GDP growth currencyCommodity prices.Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global/China macro-economic

15、control and daily oil, gas, capital market asset prices since 1983Dr. Huang structural dynamic models accurately predict economic, energy crisis since 1980 on American Institute. Chemical Engineering Washington DC, World Congress1986, TokyoHe accurately predicted in July 10, 1994 to Wall Street Jour

16、nal and Wuhan Guotai, Wanguo CEO that Shanghai A index will soared to 800 from 333 in Aug.1994.(WSJ published late July China B share rebound, Shanghai A rebound to 820 in Aug-Oct, 1994)He was invited by Wanguo, Guotai and banking CEO to offer lecture to thousands investors, traders, money manager p

17、redicted Shanghai A will be traded 600-800 during 1994-1996 due to macro-economic control, results published on Wuhan securities news Oct. 31, and Beijin Financial Times 1994He accurately predicted in Wuhan stock information journal Feb. 1995 that Shanghai A will rebound from 540 to 800. It did on M

18、ay 18 soared from 590 to 920 and plunged to 580 in three days, recommended buy Shanghai Petrochemical at one dollar soared to 8 in Aug. He accurately predicted June 20, 1995 on Beijin Central Peoples radio one hour interview, and Financial Times, Economic Daily news, Commercial Times that Shanghai A

19、 will soar from 600 to 800 in Aug.1995.Predicted on Wuhan securities news March 3, 1996, that China Peoples Bank will cut interest rate, stock market go to bull markets, Shanghai A break 1600.Lectured Shanghai Eastern radio and Shanghai stock exchange, Dec. 16, 1996 to predict Shanghai A will reboun

20、d from 1000 to 1700 in 1997 after 10 % price limit. and to Peoples Bank finance staff July 2001 China stock plunge to 1500 from 2200. Predicted Nov 2003 on Euro-events China finance, capital market conference that oil, commodity, metal prices making new high , soaring inflation lead to US , China ra

21、te hikes 2004 summer, stock prices plunge and housing, stocks price bubbles 2007 bubble burst .China/Global Economic, Enterprises reform, privatization MBO and IPO Prices MechanismPrivatization, board members organization, debt restructuring.Maximize corporate/plant wide cost, financial accounting t

22、racking, operating profit margin through cost reduction and products, market innovation develop, implemented by goal, mission, performance oriented strategic (top management), and executive Operations Simulation Analysis teams maximize China, US oil, gas corporate performances and IPO stock prices i

23、n MBO/IPO prices =F (listed market investor sentiment,and corporate profit margin) = F (Shanghai/Shenzhen index, corporate profit margin)China oil/gas ADR shares prices ( SINOPEC, PetroChina, CNOOC IPO after market prices =F (China market investor sentiment, US market investor sentiment, and corpora

24、te profit margin) = F ( Dow Jones index, Shanghai/Shenzhen index, corporate profit margin).Proactive structural China/Global Inflation, interest rate Risks, Government, corporate bond yield Price Mechanism simulationSoaring asset, commodity prices, falling currency excessive money supply led to cont

25、inued China/US inflation, credit tightening led to rising interest rates and bond yieldsInflation ratesInterest rates and bond yieldConsumer spendingcurrency oil, commodity,asset pricesMoney supply growthcurrency.Proactive Structural global currency and RMB market forces risks mechanism simulationos

26、awh/currency.html tracking trade surplus/deficit, interest rate spread impact on daily 40 currencies and last 12 years RMB ( 3 to 12) since 1998,predicted last Sept, that Fed rate cutsDrag dollar to 1.5 EURO and 105 Yen.US trade deficit China/country trade surplus/deficitDaily US dollar, RMB global

27、exchange rates futures pricesInterest rate spread between US and yoursIntegrating into Black-Schole for derivatives prices hedging.Proactive Structural China/Global housing prices, bubbles,wealth risks mechanism simulationHousing prices and heating, appliances demand are fueled by money supply, exce

28、ssive credit, stock markets wealth gain, predicted June 2007 PekingUniv, that China housing and stock prices correction late 2007Money supply growthMortgage interest rateHousing prices bubble, wealth Housing stock prices simulationStock market wealthStock index changesMBS credit derivativesHome heat

29、ing demand ,pricesHome appliances demand.Proactive Structural Market Risks: Global/China Stock indices prices futures market mechanism simulationosawh/prod03.html tracking 40 stock indices and associated index ,ETF fund, wealth, prices are generated from money supply, lower interest rates and stock

30、price, predict Sept 2007 that US rate cuts can not stop housing price slump drag into recession,US and global stocks into bear market correction, through summer 2021Money supply growthConsumer spendingInterest rate/inflation rateChina Shanghai/Shenzhen 300 , A, B, Henseng, H-Share,Nikkei, Taiwan Ind

31、ex, Singapore ST H stock index, Seoul futures, Investors sentiment , trading volumeUS investor sentimentNY Dow Jones/Nasdaq stock indexIntegrate into Black-ScholeFor derivatives prices, hedgingcurrency.Proactive Structural China/Global coal, oil, gas, freight, power demand, prices stock prices mecha

32、nism simulationChina oil, gas downstream are well positioned, fully integrated follow Dr. Huang1991 speech to SINOPEC, Beijin on globalization, integration strategyCNOOC, SINOPEC, PetroChina and coal stock prices skyatrocketing , Predicted Peking univ. 2007 that Fed rate cuts drive oil price over 10

33、0, 2021Currency Coal, crude oil, heating oil, gasoline , futures,petrochemical, plastics pricesProfit margin, stocks simulationGasoline, heating oil, petrochemical feedstockPrices, costs Consumer Business spendingPowerplantrateland, ocean freightcostCoal, gas, LNGdemand, price.Proactive Structural C

34、hina/Global Banking, Finance Enterprises Reform and, merger/acquisition performance risks simulationCut pre-merger, joint venture costs by 50 % in pre-merger speculationStock prices plunged more than 50-90 % gained in pre-merger speculation post merger integration , profit creation performances, Inv

35、estor sentimentsPost merger profit marginPre and post merger profit margin Performance improvement and stockPrices simulationPost merger integration performancePre-merger, reform goal setting targeting.Proactive Structural China/Global corporate governance, asset bubble burst scandals mechanism risk

36、s early warning simulationTracking cost and financial accounting systems and investors sentiment speculation bubbles for scandals early warning in US Enron and China Guanxia, ST stocks and China Aviation Oil and pension fund investment in housing market scandals 2004-2007Production and sales trackin

37、gfinancial accounting earning trackingBalance sheet and off-balance sheetDerivatives, IPO, merger activities trackingStrategic and execution corporate governance OSA teams trackingCost and financial accounting stock pricesCost accounting bubble trackingInvestor sentiments, housing, oil, commodity as

38、set bubble,stock index.Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of Causes, onset, recovery of China/Global Mortgage, credit,financial ,currency energy banking, bubble burst crisis and NPL loan, credit risk mechanismExcessive money supply and hot money inflow resulted soaring inflation, rate hikes, tr

39、ade deficit and currency plunge, rate hike and stocks, properties prices plunge and NPL loanPredicted Sept 2007 on Wall Street Market Beat that Fed rate cuts can not stop housingprice slump, credit crisis and recession 2021Strong Export growth Excess foreign capital Inflow , currency appreciationExp

40、ort decline, soaring trade deficit and currency plungeRunaway inflation and interest rate hikeStock prices and consumer demand plunge leading to financial, currency, housing bubble burstdefault, crisis, recovery will begin until trade surplusAnd currency rebound, interest rate cuts, stock prices reb

41、ound osawh/riskm.html Excess money supplyConsumer spendingNPL Mortgage Default.Proactive Structural strategic China/Global project financing risk management early warningTwo master hands controlling China and global economy and industrial sectors ,corporate profitability and stock prices for finance

42、 managers asset allocation, wealth management investment strategy, risk control avoid chasing the markets trillion dollars lossMoney supply, interest ratesCurrency exchange ratesInvestors sentimentsOil, gas,LNG/downstream asset pricesbubble, profit margin simulationDomestic and global market pricesA

43、nd risks simulation.Conclusions and recommendationsOSA Proactive Structural China/global capital market fundamentals mechanism simulators predicted 6 month ahead the monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macro-economic, capital market asset prices to achieve sustainable profit growth systemic

44、and specific risks, early warning supporting strategic China banking, finance, enterprises, capital market reform innovationWhich avoided trillion dollar market loss due to current betting on the wrong side of investment,chasing the markets, speculation on technical charts, market, business, economi

45、c data. It provide QFII, QDII rational, reliable decision investment and risk management decision tools in asst allocation, wealth managementThousand strategic structural dynamic OSA models tracking China and global economic and daily capital market asset prices supporting China and global capital m

46、arket decision makers through in-houseworkshops, corporate memberships and full banking, finance, enterprises reform, change management OSA program.Conclusions and RecommendationProactive OSA simulators predicted years to 6 month ahead the monetary, economic, fiscal policy ,impact on macro-economic control, capital market asset interest rate, currency, oil, gas, down