国际贷币系统中英翻译毕业论文

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NTIVEACTIONBYTHEMULTILATERALFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSINRESPONSETOGOVERNMENTSECONOMICPOLICIESANDTOUNSTABLEINVESTORBEHAVIORCOUNTRIESWHOSEFINANCIALSYSTEMSHADNOTBEENADJUSTEDWEREALLOWEDTOLIFTALLCONTROLSONCAPITALMOVEMENTSWITHTHERESTOFTHEWORLD，ANDINSOMECASESTHEYWEREACTUALLYENCOURAGEDTODOSOWHATISTOBEDONEINTHESECONDITIONSWEMIGHTBETEMPTEDTOTAKETHEEASYWAYOUTNAMELY，TOLETTHEPRESENTLOWCOOPERATIONSITUATIONPREVAILTHEARGUMENTWOULDBETHATTHEWORLDSRISINGMONETARYANDFINANCIALINSTABILITYISDUETOFIXEDEXCHANGERATESANDTHESUPPORTTHEYHAVERECEIVEDFROMTHEINTERNATIONALCOMMUNITY，NOTABLYTHEINTERNATIONALMONETARYFUNDTHECOROLLARYOFTHISPOSITIONISTHATSTRICTCURBSSHOULDBEPLACEDONIMFINTERVENTIONSINAUNIVERSEINWHICHALLAGENTSWEREPERFECTLYINFORMED，WEMIGHTASSUMETHATTHISRECIPEWOULDENSUREINTERNATIONALMONETARYANDFINANCIALSTABILITYPROVIDEDTHATECONOMICPOLICIESCONVERGEDBUTWEKNOWTHATTHISISNOTTHECASEINPRACTICE，POLICYCONVERGENCEWHETHERINTHEMONETARYORTHEFISCALSPHEREHASNOTPROVEDTOBEASUFFICIENTGUARANTEEOFMONETARYSTABILITYTHEALTERNATIVESOLUTIONWOULDBETOSTRENGTHENINTERNATIONALMONETARYCOOPERATION，ANDTHEFOCUSSHOULDBEONEXCHANGERATESNOTTHATEXCHANGERATESSHOULDBEMANIPULATEDQUITETHECONTRARYHOWEVER，THEYDOEXHIBITTHREECHARACTERISTICSTHATMAKETHEMIRREPLACEABLEASTOOLSOFINTERNATIONALMONETARYCOOPERATIONFIRST，THEYARE，BYNATURE，VARIABLESOFCOMMONINTERESTSECOND，ASRELATIVEPRICESOFCURRENCIES，THEYPROVIDERELIABLECONFIDENCEINDICATORSFORTHEECONOMICPOLICIESCARRIEDOUTINTHEDIFFERENTCURRENCYZONESTHIRDEXCHANGERATESAREVALUABLESIGNALSOFECONOMICIMBALANCESTHISLEADSUSTORECOMMENDAREFORMOFTHESYSTEMAIMEDATPROVIDINGGREATERSTABILITYBUTWITHOUTINTRODUCINGA“FIXEDFACTORTHATCOULDCOMPROMISETHEGROWTHOFUNSYNCHRONIZEDECONOMICREGIONSSEVERALAPPROACHESARCPOSSIBLEHERETHEYALLHINGEONTHENOTIONOFACOOPERATIVEEFFORTFOCUSEDONTHEDOLLAREURORINK，WHICHFORMSTHEBASISOFTHEINTERNATIONALMONETARYSYSTEMTHISIMPLIESANINTENSIVEDIALOGUEBETWEENUSANDEUROPEANAUTHORITIESTHEFIRSTPURPOSEOFTHECOOPERATIONSHOULDBETOADDRESSTHEFOLLOWINGQUESTIONWHATISTHEDESIRABLEFLUCTUATIONBANDFORTHEDOLLARAGAINSTTHEEUROINVIEWOFTHEGOALSSTATEDEARLIERIFTHISQUESTIONISLEFTUNASKED，WHICHISTHECASETODAY，THEN0RAREISASTRONGRISKTHATTHESYSTEMWILLCONTINUETODRIFTSPARKINGFINANCIALCRISESSUCHASTHOSEWEHAVESEENINRECENTYEARSTHEFORMSUCHCOOPERATIONWOULDTAKECANBEMOREORLESSCOERCIVETHEMOSTAMBITIOUSFORMWOULDBETOADOPT“TARGETZONES”ASFREDBERGSTENADVOCATESTHEAGREEMENTWOULDSPECIFYTHEFLUCTUATIONBANDSAROUNDCENTRALRATESFORTHEEURO，THEDOLLAR，ANDTHEYEN，WHICHWOULDBEREGULARLYADJUSTEDTOREFLECTDIFFERENTIALSININFLATIONANDINECONOMICFUNDAMENTALSTHECENTRALRATESWOULDBECHOSENSOASTOENSURETHEECONOMIESINTERNALANDEXTERNALBALANCETHEBANDSHOULDBEWIDEENOUGH1015PERCENTTOABSORBTHEEXCHANGERATEVARIATIONSDUETOSHORTTERMECONOMICFLUCTUATIONSITWOULDBEMADEPUBLICINORDERTOCONFINECENTRALBANKINTERVENTIONSTOSITUATIONSINVOLVINGSEVEREIMBALANCESTHECENTRALBANKSWOULDBEOBLIGEDTOINTERVENEATTHEMARGINSALESSAMBITIOUSVARIANTOFTARGETZONESWOULDBETOADOPTTHEPRINCIPLEOFCOMPULSORYACTIONWHENTHEEXCHANGERATESAPPROACHTHEFLUCTUATIONLIMITS，BUTWITHOUTMAKINGPUBLICTHECENTRALRATESANDTHEFLUCTUATIONBANDSTHISISTHESOLUTIONTHATMOSTCLOSELYRESEMBLESTHELOUVREACCORDSOF1987INPRACTICE，ITISMOREFLEXIBLETHANTHEFIRSTOPTION，ASITLEAVESTHEMONETARYAUTHORITIESSOMELEEWAYFORDECIDINGWHENANDHOWTOACT，WHILEKEEPINGTHEIRCREDIBILITYINTACTSINCETHEYWOULDBEMAKINGNOPUBLICCOMMITMENTSTHEESTABLISHMENTOFTARGETZONESSEEMSDESIRABLETOME，ASTHEYARETHEONLYCREDIBLEFRAMEWORKFORORGANIZINGCURRENCYFLUCTUATIONSTHEPROBLEMWITHTARGETZONES，HOWEVER,ISTHATTHEYHAVENOTWONANYCONSENSUSINTHEG7ORAMONGEXPERTSONEOBJECTIONTOTHEMRAILSASFOLLOWSINTRODUCINGFLUCTUATIONBANDSWOULDADMITTEDLYREDUCETHEVOLATILITYOFFORWARDEXCHANGEROTESRELATIVETOSPOTRATESBUTTHEBANDSCREDIBILITYWOULDBEHEAVILYERODEDBY,THEINABILITYOFTHECENTRALBANKSTOCOMMITTHEMSELVESTOUNLIMITEDINTERVENTIONATTHEMARGINSASECONDCOUNTERARGUMENTISTHATTARGETZONESCOULDFOSTER“SELFFULFILLING”SPECULATIVEATTACKSBECAUSETHEDEFENSEOFTHEBANDSCREATESACONFLICTBETWEENTHEMONETARYAUTHORITIESDOMESTICANDEXTERNALGOALS，UNDERMININGTHECREDIBILITYOFTHELATTERINTRUTH，ITISTHELACKOFCONSENSUSBETWEENTHEMAJORMONETARYPOWERSTHATLIMITSTHECREDIBILITYOFTARGETZONESNOTTHETARGETZONESLACKOFCREDIBILITYTHATPREVENTSAPOSSIBLECONSENSUSINTHESHORTMS，IFAG7AGREEMENTONTARGETZONESSEEMEDTOODIFFICULTTOREACH，THEMINIMUMREQUIREMENTWOULDBETOAGREEON“REFERENCEPARITIES”ANYOVERSTEPPINGOFTHESEBOUNDARIESWOULDOBLIGEGOVERNMENTSANDCENTRALBANKSTODECIDEONCONCERTEDACTIONWITHOUTAWAITINGTHENEXTOFFICIALG7ORIMFMEETINGTHISWOULDBEASIGNIFICANTSTEPFORWARDFROMTHEPRESENTARRANGEMENT，WHICHREQUIRESNOCONSULTATIONTHEREFERENCEEXCHANGERATESWOULDNOTBEMADEPUBLIC，ANDTHEYWOULDBEREGULARLYADJUSTEDTOREFLECTCHANGESINECONOMICFUNDAMENTALSTHUSEVENIFNOCONSENSUSEMERGESONTARGETZONESTHEREAREWAYSINWHICHINTERNATIONALMONETARYCOOPERATIONCALLBEDRAMATICALLYSTRENGTHENEDEVENTODAYSTEPSCALLBETAKENINAFLEXIBLEMANNER,PROGRESSIVELYLEADINGTOMOREAMBITIOUSSOLUTIONSSUCHASTARGETZONESASMUTUALCONFIDENCEDEVELOPSBETWEENG7GOVERNMENTSANDCENTRALBANKSITMUSTBEEMPHASIZED，HOWEVER，THATTHEQUALITYOFTHECOOPERATIONDEPENDSONTHEQUALITYOFTHECURRENCIESUNFORTUNATELY，STUDIESONTHEMONETARYPOLICYOFGOVERNMENTSANDCENTRALBANKSSELDOMADDRESSTHISQUALITYISSUETHEMONETARISTARGUMENTSFORREGULATIONTHROUGHQUANTITATIVEMANAGEMENTOFTHEMONEYSUPPLYHAVEEXERTEDSUCHINTELLECTUALDOMINANCETHATTHEQUALITYOFTHECURRENCYISALMOSTNEVERDISCUSSEDANYMOREINTHEPASTITWASINHERENTLYDEMONSTRATEDBYTHEFUNCTIONINGOFTHEGOLDSTANDARDWHILETHEISSUEMAYSEEMLESSURGENTINTHELEADINGINDUSTRIALIZEDNATIONSTHESAMEISNOTTRUEOFTHEEMERGINGECONOMIESIMPROVINGTHEQUALITYOFCURRENCIESREQUIRESCLOSERMULTILATERALMONITORINGTHEFIRSTSTEPISTOIMPROVEOURKNOWLEDGEOFTHEEMERGINGECONOMIESTHANKSTOTHEAPPLICATIONOFRECOGNIZEDACCOUNTINGSTANDARDS，THECREATIONOFARELIABLESTATISTICALSYSTEM，ANDANEFFORTONTHEPARTOFTHESECOUNTRIESTOENGAGEINCONTINUINGDIALOGUEWITHTHEIRCREDITORSITWOULDALSOBEDESIRABLETOENSUREAWIDERDISSEMINATIONOFTHEIMFSMACROECONOMICSTUDIES，NATURALLYWITHOUTVIOLATINGTHECONFIDENTIALITYOFTHEINFORMATIONPROVIDEDBYNATIONALGOVERNMENTSIMPROVINGTHEQUALITYOFCURRENCIESALSOCALLSFORTIGHTERFINANCIALDISCIPLINEINTHECOUNTRIESTHATHAVELIBERALIZEDTHEIRCAPITALMOVEMENTSIAMREFERRINGNOTONLYTOTHECONTROLOFPUBLICEXPENDITURESANDDEFICITSORTHECREATIONOF。CENTRALBANKMONEY”一APRECONDITIONFORMONETARYSTABILITYINTHECOUNTRIESTHATHAVEOPENEDUPTOCAPITALFLOWS，INTERNATIONALCOOPERATIONMUSTALSOTACKLETHECONDITIONSINWHICHBROADMONEYIE，BANKCREDITISCREATEDITISESPECIALLYURGENTTOREACHAGREEMENTOILSTRICTERPRUDENTIALRULESTHANTHOSEPREVAILINGTODAYONTHISPOINT，THECONSENSUSAMONGEXPERTISSUFFICIENTTOALLOWTHERAPIDADOPTIONOFEFFECTIVEMEASURESWITHINTHESETTINGOFTHEFINANCIALSTABILITYFORUMTHEIMFANDTHEWORLDBANKSHOULDBEEXPLICITLYMANDATEDTODIRECTTHEIMPLEMENTATIONOFTHESEMEASURES,ANDSHOULDBEGIVENTHERESOURCESTOINCITECOMPLIANCETHECOUNTRIESCONCERNEDTHESEBASICPRUDENTIALRULESSHOULDCOVERTHETRANSPARENCYOFBANKINGSECTORANDCORPORATEACCOUNTS，BADLOANPROVISIONS，ANDTHECAPITALADEQUACYRATIOSLAIDDOWNFOREACHCATEGORYOFRECEIVABLESTOTHISARRAYSHOULDBEADDEDTHEINTRODUCTIONOFALLEFFECTIVEBANKRUPTCYLAWANDADEPOSITINSURANCESYSTEMTHENOTIONOFGIVINGMOREFAVORABLETREATMENTTOTHE“VIRTUOUS”COUNTRIESTHATAGREETOOBSERVETHESERULESANDTOCONDUCTSOUNDMACROECONOMICPOLICIESISATTRACTIVE，ALTHOUGHITSHOULDBEIMPLEMENTEDWITHCAUTIONTHERECENTDECISIONTOOPENACREDITLINEFOR“VIRTUOUSCOUNTRIESHITBYACONTAGIONEFFECTISAFIRSTSTEPINTHISDIRECTIONTHEPOLITICALDIMENSIONOFTHEISSUEWOULD，OFCOURSE，REQUIRETHEACTIVEINVOLVEMENTOFTHEG7INDEFININGTHEINCENTIVESANDTHEIRLINKAGETOMACROECONOMICANDFINANCIALMONITORINGOFCOUNTRIESTHEASIANCRISISONCEAGAINRAISEDTHEISSUEOFTHESPECIALRESPONSIBILITYOFMOVEMENTSOFSHORTTERMCAPITALADMITTEDLY，SHORTTERMCAPITALDOESMORETHANFUELSPECULATION；ITISALSOONEOFTHENORMALMEANSOFFINANCINGECONOMICACTIVITYHOWEVER,INCOUNTRIESWHERETHEFINANCIALSYSTEMHASNOTBEENCLEANEDUP，THEFLOWSTENDTOAMPLIFYMONETARYCRISESWITHASINGULARFORCEINTHESECOUNTRIES，THEADHOCIMPOSITIONOFCAPITALEXITCONTROLSDURINGACRISISISSURELYNOTAGOODIDEA，BECAUSEITISAUNILATERALANDBLINDMOVE，THENOTIONOFAMODESTWORLDWIDETAXONALLCROSSBORDERCAPITALMOVEMENTSADVOCATEDBYTHEECONOMISTJAMESTOBINISNOTSHOCKINGINPRINCIPLE，BUTHIGHLYPROBLEMATICINITSEFFICACYBYCONTRAST，THECHILEANSOLUTIONOF“TAXING”CAPITALINFLOWSINVULNERABLECOUNTRIESDOESNOTINVOLVETHESAMEDIFFICULTIESNEIMFSHOULDTHEREFOREEXAMINETHESEOPTIONSINGREATERDETAILTHESEVARIOUSMEASURESSTILLDONOTADDRESSTHEMORALHAZARDRISK,WHICH,UNLESSWEARECAREFULCOULDPROVEDEVASTATINGINTHELONGERRUN,INTERNATIONALCOMMUNITYSFINANCIALSUPPORTFORCRISISHITCOUNTRIESSERVESMAINLYTOREIMBURSEPRIVATECREDITORSTHERISKSINCURREDBYTHELATTERARETHEREFORE，PARTLYCOVEREDBYTHEINTERNATIONALCOMMUNITYTHISISANUNWELCOMEINCENTIVETOFINANCIALIMPRUDENCETHESOLUTIONCONSISTSININVOLVINGPRIVATECREDITORSMOREEXTENSIVELYINSEALINGCRISESHOWEVER,SINCESUCHLOANSARECONTRACTSGOVERNEDBYPRIVATELAW，THEINVOLVEMENTMUSTOBVIOUSLYBEARRANGEDINPRINCIPLEONAVOLUNTARYBASISASALLINDUCEMENT，CREDITORSWHOAGREETOJOININARESTRUCTURINGPROGRAMCOULDBEOFFEREDPARTICULARLYATTRACTIVEGUARANTEESTHEPRESENCEOFMULTIPLECREDITORSISNOTANOBSTACLETOTHIS“BAILINAPPROACHINTHERECENTCRISIS，COMMERCIALBANKSFARLESSNUMEROUSTHANBONDHOLDERSWERERESPONSIBLEFOR80PERCENTOFTHESUDDENCAPITALOUTFLOWSTHESOLUTIONWAGAPPLIEDTOMEXICOIN1982AND，ALTHOUGHMORETIMIDLYANDBELATEDLY，TOSOUTHKOREAIN1997ANDBRAZILIN1999NEVERTHELESS，INTHEEVENTOFANUNUSUALLYSEVERECRISISREQUIRINGINTERNATIONALASSISTANCE，WESHOULDNOTRULEOUTTHEPOSSIBILITYOFIMPOSINGACOHERENTRESTRUCTURINGOFALLDEBTCATEGORIESONLYTHEIMFANDTHEPARISCLUB，OFCOURSE，WOULDHAVETHEPOWERTOFORCEADEBTRESTRUCTURINGONPRIVATECREDITORSMOREOVER10ANCONTRACTSSHOULDINCLUDEACLAUSEALLOWINGSUCHRESTRUCTURINGUNDERALLINTERNATIONALAEGISIFASERIOUSCRISISOCCURSITSHOULDBEEMPHASIZEDTHATITISINTHECOLLECTIVEINTERESTOFPRIVATECREDITORSFORATHIRDPARTYTOORDERARESTRUCTURINGWHENTHERISKOFFINANCIALPANICISHIGHINCLOSING,1WOULDLIKETORETURNTOTHEQUESTIONWITHWHICHIBEGANTHISDISCUSSIONARECURRENCYFLUCTUATIONSAGOODLINGORABADTHINGONETHINGSCERTAINTHEYAREAFACTOFFIFETHATCANNOTBEELIMINATEDEVENINTHEDAYSOFTHEGOLDSTANDARD,CURRENCIESCOULDBEDEVALUEDANDWERESUBJECTTOSWINGSDETERMINEDBYTHEIRRELATIVEQUALITYTHEEXISTENCEOFFLUCTUATIONSSHOULDNOTINITSELF,BETHESUBJECTOFCONCERN；RATHER，ITISTHEFACTTHATATHESEMOVEMENTSAREDISORDERLY，BALLTOOOFTENASWITHTHEYENANDDOLLARIN199596THEYAREJUSTIFIEDNEITHERBYTHERESPECTIVEQUALITYOFTHECURRENCIES，NO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