南非经济报告之基础教育

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SouthAfricaEconomicUpdate,Edition15

Learning:

OverdueReforms

andEmergingPrioritiesinBasicEducation

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(i)Learning:OverdueReformsandEmergingPrioritiesinBasicEducation

TableofContents

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS01

LISTOFACRONYMS02

OVERVIEW03

PART1:THESTATEOFTHEECONOMY07

1.1RECENTDEVELOPMENTS08

1.1.1Domesticconditionsgraduallyimprovedduring2024,butGDPgrowthremainssubdued08

1.1.2Povertyremainsprevalentduetolimitedjobcreation10

1.1.3Lowerinflationallowedformoreaccommodatingmonetarypolicy11

1.1.4SouthAfrica’sexternalbalanceisstablebutvulnerabletovolatilecommoditypricesandshort-termcapitalflows12

1.1.5Thefiscaldeficitrosetoanewlevelleadingtohigherpublicdebt12

1.2OUTLOOKANDRISKS14

1.2.1Improvedgrowthprospectsandfiscalconsolidation14

1.2.2Uncertaintiesintheglobaleconomycannotbeignored,butthemainrisksaredomestic17

1.3THREEPOLICYACTIONSFORFASTERANDMOREINCLUSIVEECONOMICGROWTH18

1.3.1Action1:Addressingtheinfrastructureconstraints18

1.3.2Action2:Improvingtheefficiencyofpublicspending19

1.3.3Action3:Strengtheninghumancapitaldevelopment21

References23

PART2:THEOVERDUEREFORMANDEMERGINGPRIORITIESINTHEBASICEDUCATIONSECTOR25

2.1THREEKEYCHALLENGESINBASICEDUCATION26

2.1.1Challenge1:Thelearningcrisis-earlyprogress,setbacks,andtheurgencytoaccelerateprogress26

2.1.2Challenge2:TheincreasingfinancingconstraintoftheState29

2.1.3Challenge3:Limitedefficiencyandequityofpublicspendingonbasiceducation33

2.2THREEACTIONSFORBETTERLEARNING36

2.2.1Action1:Focusingonlearningoutcomes,startingwithfoundationallearning37

2.2.2Action2:Leveragingtheprivatesectortoexpandaccessto,qualityof,andcompetitionineducation

servicedelivery40

2.2.3Action3:Improvingtheefficiencyandequityinpublicspendingoneducation42

Annex1:Basiceducationdatasets46

Annex2:KeylessonsfromtheSobralexperienceinBrazil47

Annex3:TheMississippiMiracle49

References50

Learning:OverdueReformsandEmergingPrioritiesinBasicEducation(ii)

(iii)Learning:OverdueReformsandEmergingPrioritiesinBasicEducation

LISTOFFIGURES

Figure1:WeakGDPgrowthanddecliningGDPpercapita08

Figure2:GDPhasunderperformedallotherincomegroupssince201608

Figure3:Financialserviceswerethepillarofgrowthinrecentquarters09

Figure4:Weakdomesticdemandhinderedgrowthin202409

Figure5:Railfreightvolumeshavedeclinedsignificantly09

Figure6:Unemploymentremainselevated,withmostjobseekersunabletofindworkinoverayear10

Figure7:SouthAfricahasoneofthelowestemploymentratiosintheworld11

Figure8:LargergoodstradesurpluskeptthecurrentaccountdeficitcontainedinH1202412

Figure9:FDIflowstoSouthAfricaremainweakcomparedwithotherEmergingMarkets12

Figure10:Thepersistentlywidefiscaldeficitandrisingpublicdebtovertime13

Figure11:Whatdrovethedeteriorationoffiscaldeficitinrecentyears?13

Figure12:SouthAfricaisonthewrongsideofproductivitygrowth,2011-202218

Figure13:ThegapinlaborproductivitybetweenSouthAfricaandtheworldiswideninginallsectors,2001-201718

Figure14:ContributingfactorstoproductivityinSouthAfrica22

Figure15:SouthAfrica’sHCIislowrelativetoitsspendingoneducationandhealth22

Figure16:ResultsfromInternationalAssessmentsbySouthAfrica,2000-2327

Figure17:ComparingtheSystemTestScoresandSchool-basedAssessmentScores,WesternCape,202229

Figure18:SouthAfricabudgetaryallocationtotheeducationsector30

Figure19:Realspendingonbasiceducationhasdeclinedsince2019-2030

Figure20:Onaverage,provincesallocate41percentoftheirbudgettoeducation,2023-2431

Figure21:VariationsinpublicspendingperlearnerinGrades1-12acrossprovinces31

Figure22:Provincesspendonaverage,almost75percentoftheireducationbudgetonwages32

Figure23:SouthAfrica’sunderperformance:ExpectedvsactualPIRLS2021Grade4scores33

Figure24:Thedifferencesinspendingperlearnerarenotalwayscorrectedbypublicfunding,resultsforoneprovincein2021-2235

Figure25:Reformingtheeducationsystem:fromchallengestorecommendations37

Figure26:ReadingbenchmarksinNgunilanguages39

LISTOFBOXFIGURES

FigureB1:SouthAfrica’sdebtdynamicsareunfavorable16

FigureB2:Withoutfiscalconsolidation,therearesignificantrisksofdebtnon-stabilization16

FigureB3:LearningoutcomesarethemostunequalinSouthAfrica28

LISTOFTABLES

Table1:Baselineforecasts14

LISTOFBOXES

Box1:WhyisfiscalconsolidationapriorityforSouthAfrica?16

Box2:Measuringinequalitiesinlearningoutcomes28

Box3:ExplainingtheNormsandStandardsforSchoolFunding(NSSF)31

Box4:Howarewagesnegotiatedintheeducationsector?32

Box5:USCharterSchools,ColombianConcessionSchools,andUKAcademies41

Learning:OverdueReformsandEmergingPrioritiesinBasicEducation01

Acknowledgments

TheSouthAfricaEconomicUpdatesaimtocontributetopolicydebatesinSouthAfricaandbeyondbyprovidingindependent,rigorous,andtimelyanalysisconnectingSouthAfricawithglobaldevelopmentswhilealsohelpingbenchmarkthecountryagainstinternationaltrends.Itsstakeholdersincludethegovernment,academia,andthemedia,aswellasinternationalpartnersandthewiderpopulationinterestedinSouthAfrica’seconomicdevelopment.EacheditionoftheEconomicUpdateincludesasectiononrecenteconomicdevelopmentsandthecountry’soutlookandaspecialfocussectiondiscussinganissuepertinenttoitsdevelopmenttrajectory.Inthisedition,thefocussectionanalyzesthechallengesfacedbytheeducationsectoranddiscussespolicyoptionstoaddressthem.

ThiseconomicupdatewaspreparedbyateamledbyIrineuEvangelistaDeCarvalhoFilho(SeniorEconomist)andJacquesMorisset(LeadEconomistandProgramLeader).TheteamincludedDumisaniNgwenya(Economist),whocontributedtoPart1ofthereport.ThemainauthorsforPart2ofthereportwereElizabethNinanDulvy(ProgramLeader)andLuisCrouch(SeniorEconomistEmeritus,ResearchTriangleInstitute),withinputsfromHarryPatrinos(ChairinEducationPolicyattheUniversityofArkansas),MamyRakotomalala(EducationConsultant),AlasdairFraser(EducationConsultant),JesalKika-Mistry(EducationConsultant),JavierBaez(LeadEconomist),SamiraTowfighian(SeniorEducationSpecialist),andYevgeniyaSavchenko(SeniorEconomist).TheNationalDepartmentofBasicEducation,someprovincialeducationdepartments,

andrepresentativesoftheNationalTreasuryprovidedinvaluablefeedbackonPart2ofthereport.ThereportalsobenefitedfromfeedbackfromNicSpaull(SeniorProgramOfficer,GatesFoundation),MartinGustafsson(ResearcherwiththeDepartmentofEconomics,StellenboschUniversityandAdvisortotheDepartmentofBasicEducation),ServaasvanderBerg(ProfessorofEconomics,StellenboschUniversityandSouthAfricanNationalResearchChairintheEconomicsofSocialPolicy),MastoeraSadan(ChiefSectorExpert:Social,DepartmentofPlanning,MonitoringandEvaluation,SouthAfrica)CarolNugaDeliwe(DirectorofImpact,MastercardFoundation),andCarienVorster(RegionalRepresentative,RogerFedererFoundation).LaviniaEngelbrechtprovidedcommunicationanddisseminationsupport.EmelineUmehprovidedadministrativeandlogisticalsupport.

WethankPedroMiguelGasparMartins(ProgramLeader)andTobyLinden(LeadEconomist)whowerethepeerreviewers.

ThereportwaspreparedundertheoverallguidanceandsupervisionofSatuKahkonen(CountryDirector),HassanZaman(RegionalDirectorforProsperity),DanielDulitzky(RegionalDirectorforPeople),MarcoHernandez(PracticeManagerforEconomicPolicy),andMeskeremMulatu(PracticeManagerforEducation).

ThereportwaseditedbyLucyVictoriaDavis.AashnaAmeenprovidedthecoverillustration.TypesettinganddesignbyEmmaFaeVisser.

Listsofacronyms

ALMPActiveLaborMarketProgram

ANAAnnualNationalAssessment

CSGChildSupportGrant

DBEDepartmentofBasicEducation

ECDEarlyChildhoodDevelopment

ECEEarlyChildhoodEducation

EGRAEarlyGradeReadingAssessments

EGREarlyGradeReading

FDIForeignDirectInvestment

GDPGrossDomesticProduct

HCIHumanCapitalIndex

ILOInternationalLaborOrganization

ITEInitialTeacherEducation

NAEPNationalAssessmentofEducationPerformance

NSSFNormsandStandardsforSchoolFunding

OECDTheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment

PEDsProvincialEducationDepartments

PIRLSProgressinInternationalReadingLiteracyStudy

PPPPublic-PrivatePartnerships

PSETPost-SecondaryEducationandTraining

QMSQualityManagementSystem

RMBRandMerchantBank

SARBSouthAfricanReserveBank

SASESouthAfricanSystemicEvaluation

SBASchool-basedAssessment

SGBSchoolGoverningBody

SOEState-OwnedEnterprise

SOPSchoolOperatingPartner

TIMSSTrendsinInternationalMathematicsandScienceStudy

TPSTeacherProfessionalStandards

UMICUpper-Middle-IncomeCountries

WDIWorldDevelopmentIndicators

02Learning:OverdueReformsandEmergingPrioritiesinBasicEducation

Learning:OverdueReformsandEmergingPrioritiesinBasicEducation03

OVERVIEW

Intomorrow’sworld,thewinnerswillinevitablybethosewhopossesstheknowledgetoinnovateandadapttoincreasinglyrapidtechnologicaladvancements.Incontrast,thosewholackthisknowledgewillfallbehind.

Thereisconsensusamongpolicymakersthatawell-functioningeducationsystemisessentialfordevelopingthenextgeneration’sskillsfromanearlyage.However,SouthAfricaiscurrentlyfacingaseverelearningcrisis,asitseducationoutcomesaretoolowcomparedtothecountry’slevelofdevelopmentandtheresourcesinvestedinthissectorbythestate.Thisreportseekstoaddressthequestionofhowtotransformtheeducationsystemintoadriverofinclusivegrowth.

Thisreportisdividedintotwoparts.ThefirstassessesthestateoftheSouthAfricaneconomy,analyzingthelatestdevelopmentsandsharingtheshorttomedium-termoutlookandrisks,includingasetofpolicyactionsforfasterandmoreinclusivegrowth.Thesecondpartdiscusseshowthecountrycanimproveitshumancapitalthroughacomprehensivereformofitsbasiceducationsystem.

Thestateoftheeconomy

In2024,SouthAfrica’seconomycontinuedtoadvanceonaslowandweakinclusivegrowthtrajectoryandrecordeditshighestfiscaldeficitinrecenthistory(exceptfor2020).

DespiteawaveofoptimismfromthesuccessfulpoliticaltransitioninJune2024andtheabsenceofloadsheddingsinceMarch,therealeconomyisstillonaslowpathtorecovery.Goodnewscamefromthefinancialsector(withthegradualdeclineintheinflationandinterestrates)and,toalesserextent,fromtheexternalsector(withaslightincreaseinthelevelofinternationalreserves)butthegovernment’saccountscontinuedtodeteriorate.Nonetheless,GDPonlygrewbyanestimated0.8percentin2024,whichisslightlybetterthanin2023butsignificantlylowerthantheaverageGDPgrowthrateof4.1percentestimatedbytheWorldBankformiddle-incomecountries.

Inthiscontext,manysocialindicatorsremainbroadlyunchanged:abouttwo-thirdsofthepopulationcontinuetoliveunder$6.85perday,and40-50percentofthecountry’swealthremainsinthehandsoftherichest1percentofthepopulation.Intheabsenceofrobusteconomicgrowth,jobcreationwouldremaininsufficienttoabsorbnewentrantstothelabormarket,withtheunemploymentratehigherthan30percentandabouttwooutofthreeyoungworkersunabletofinda(productive)job.

Ensuringfiscalsustainabilityremainsatoppriority.In2024,theoverallfiscaldeficitreached6percentofGDP,markingitshighestlevelsince2009,excludingtheCOVID-19crisisin2020.Whilepublicrevenueswereslightlylowerthananticipatedduetoslowereconomicgrowth,expendituresrosetoofastastheresultofhigherpublicdebtservicepaymentsandlargetransferstostate-ownedenterprises(SOEs)(especiallyEskom).Consequently,thegovernmentborrowedtofinancethisgap,includingover$3billionontheEurobondmarket,leadingtoanincreaseinthepublicdebtlevelto74.9percentofGDPattheendof2024,upfrom67.6percentin2021and28.3percentin2009.

Overthenextthreetofiveyears,economicgrowthisforecastedtograduallyconvergetowards2percent,whilethegovernmentwillhavetorebuildfiscalspacetoavoidadebtcrisis.

Economicgrowthisprojectedtograduallyimproveandconvergetowards2percentinthenextthreetofiveyears,whichwouldbealmostthreetimeshigherthantheaverageGDPgrowthreportedbetween2014and

2024.Suchrecovery,albeitmodest,willbedrivenbyimprovedinfrastructureservicesandarelativelyfavorableexternalenvironment.Duringthisperiod,inflationisexpectedtoremainundercontrol,allowingafurthereasingofmonetarypolicythatwillencouragebanks’creditstobusinessesandhouseholdsand,thus,stimulateeconomicgrowth.

Toachieveasustainablepublicdebttrajectory,theauthoritieswillneedtoreducethefiscaldeficitfrom6percentto4.6percentofGDPby2027.Achievingthisgoalwillrequirereforms,asdebt-servicepaymentsareprojectedtoincreaserapidly,influencedbytheexistingpublicdebtprofile.Thefocuswouldbeonreducingthewagebillandtransferstostate-ownedenterprisesandsub-nationalgovernmentswhilepreservingcapitalandsocialexpenditures.

Theriskstotheabovescenarioarenotmarginal.Externally,SouthAfricaisvulnerabletoadeclineindemandforitskeyexportcommodities(miningandagriculture),aglobaltradewar,andincreasedgeopoliticalinstability.Asexperiencedinrecentyears,thecountryisalsoexposedtoclimateriskssuchasdroughtsandfloods.However,themainrisksaredomestic,beginningwithafragilepoliticalcoalition,highcrimeandinsecurity,andpersistentsocialtensions.Thefiscalconsolidationprocessmayalsofaceresistancefromlaborunions(requestinghigherpublicwageadjustments),SOEs(Transnet’sfinancialtroubles),andsomesubnationalgovernmentsthatarealreadyorclosetofinancialdistress.

Toenhancegrowthandimproveequity,SouthAfricacouldremoveexistinginfrastructureconstraintsonbusinessesandhouseholds,improvetheefficiencyofpublicspending,andenhancehumancapitaldevelopment.

Growingatarateofabout2percentperyearisunlikelytofullysatisfySouthAfrica’spolicymakersandcitizens.Atthispace,theaverageincomepercapitawillbarelyincreaseby1.1percentperyear.Thismeansitcouldtakealmost65yearsforthecountrytobecomeahigh-incomeeconomy.Additionally,socialindicatorssuchaspovertyandunemploymentareunlikelytoimproveasjobopportunitiesforlow-incomefamilieswillcontinuetobelimited.

SouthAfricanpolicymakerscouldconsiderthreemutuallyreinforcingactionstoachievefasterandmoreinclusivegrowth:

1.Addressingtheinfrastructureconstraintsinenergyandtransport.Theseconstraints,peakingin2023,areestimatedtohavecosttheeconomy3-5percentagepointsofGDPgrowth,disproportionatelyaffectingsmallbusinessesandlow-incomehouseholds.Theauthoritieshaverespondedtothiscrisisbyadoptingaseriesofreforms,especiallyinpowergeneration,thathavealreadyproducedpositiveresultswiththeemergenceofprivatelysponsoredrenewableenergyprojects.Atthisstage,itisimportanttocontinuethiseffortbyextendingthesereformstotransmissionanddistributionintheenergy,railway,andportsectors.TheWorldBankestimatesthattheimplementationofthesereforms,thoughtheirpositiveimpactonfirms’productionanddistributioncostsandhouseholds’disposableincome,couldleadtoanincreaseinGDPgrowthof1percentintheshorttermand3percentinthemedium-term,translatinginto200,000to

500,000additionaljobs.

2.Enhancingefficiencyinpublicspending.Duetothefiscalconsolidationprocessrequiredinthenextfewyears,thegovernmentwillhavetobesmartaboutspending.BuildingonSouthAfrica’srecentexperienceandinternationalevidence,efficiencygainscanbeachievedbythecombinationof(i)partnershipswiththeprivatesector;(ii)implementationofcross-cuttingreformacrossthestate(digitalization,procurement,andrecruitmentprocesses);and(iii)aseriesoftargetedinterventionssuchascoordinatingandconsolidatingexistingprograms(e.g.,activelaborprograms),increasingthevalueformoneyofsocialgrants,improvingthemanagementofstrategicinvestmentprojects,andsimplifyingadministrativeprocedures(includingbusinessregistrationandlicensing).

3.Strengtheninghumancapitaldevelopment.Humancapitalplaysapivotalrolebydirectlyimpactingontheproductiveabilityoftheeconomy,butalsoindirectlybyenhancing