氢能理事会：全球氢能流动报告2023（英文版）-2024-05-新能源

GlobalHydrogen

Flows-2023Update

Considerationsforevolvingglobalhydrogentrade

PublishedinNovember2023bytheHydrogenCouncil.Copiesofthisdocumentareavailableuponrequestorcanbedownloadedfromourwebsite:

ThisreportwasauthoredbytheHydrogenCouncilincollaborationwithMcKinsey&Company.

Thereproductionofthiswork,savewhereotherwisestated,isauthorised,providedthesourceis

acknowledged.Allrightsareotherwisereserved.Theauthorsofthereportconfirmthefollowing:

1.Therearenorecommendations,measures,ortrajectorieswithinthereportthatcouldbeinterpretedas

standardsorasanyotherformof(suggested)coordinationbetweentheparticipantsofthestudyreferredtowithinthereportthatwouldinfringetheEUcompetitionlaw.

2.Itisnottheirintentionthatanysuchformofcoordinationwillbeadopted.

Whilethecontentsofthisreportanditsabstractimplicationsfortheindustrycanbediscussedgenerallyoncetheyhavebeenprepared,individualstrategiesremainproprietaryandconfidentialandarethe

responsibilityofeachparticipant.Participantsareremindedthat,aspartoftheinvariablepracticeofthe

HydrogenCouncilandtheEUcompetitionlawobligationstowhichmembershipactivitiesaresubject,suchstrategicandconfidentialinformationmustnotbesharedorcoordinated—includingaspartofthisreport.

GlobalHydrogenFlows-2023Update

HydrogenCouncil,McKinsey&Company

2

Introduction

Hydrogenanditsderivativeswillplayacentralroleindecarbonizationandglobaltradewillbecriticalfordrivinguptake.Thiswasthekeyfindingof

GlobalHydrogenFlows

,ajointreportoftheHydrogenCouncilandMcKinsey&Companypublishedin2022.Ithighlightedtheinabilityofmajorfuturehydrogendemandregions,includingEurope,Japan,andSouthKorea,tomeetalltheirdemandataffordablecosts.Other

regions,thereportshowed,couldpotentiallyhaveexcesslow-costsupply.

Yettheoutlookforhydrogenisfarfromfixed.Thehydrogenindustryisconstantlyadaptingtoarapidly

evolvingregulatoryframework,shiftsinglobalpolicy,geopoliticalforces,newtechnologies,andongoinglearningfromprojectimplementation.This2023summaryreportrevisitsthefindingsofthe2022Global

HydrogenFlowsreporttoaccountfortheseandotherchanges—andassesseshowglobalhydrogentradeflowscouldevolve.1

Abouttheanalysis

Theresultspresentedinthis2023summaryreportarebasedonamoredetaileddocument,showingtheoutputsfromanadvancedanalyticsoptimizationmodel.Thissoftwarebalancessupplyanddemand

acrossallregions,multiplecarriers,andendproducts.

TheGlobalHydrogenTradeFlowsModeloptimizesacross1.5milliontraderoutesandmultipledemandscenarios

Inputs

optimizationofproductionandtradeflows

utputs

Demandforecasts

Diversiiationandsecurity

ofsupplyconstraints

productioncosts

productionlimits

Transportcosts

98

pipelinedirecions

62

marketregions

9

largestcountrieswitha

subcountrysplit

8

productionsourcecategories

5

endproducts

4

fuloptimizatonyears:

2025,2030,2040,2050

4

hydrogencarriersand

acarrierforgreensteeI

capexforecasts

countryproducttion

forecasts

Destinationcostcurves

Flowvolumesbycarrier

Marginacostforecast

scenarioanalysis

source:Hydrogencouncil,MckinseyGlobalHydrogenFlowModel

1Unlessotherwisestated,alldataandanalysisinthissummaryreportarebasedondataprovidedbytheGlobalHydrogenFlows2023datasetoftheHydrogenCouncilandMcKinsey&Company,drawingondataprovidedbyMcKinsey&Company.

GlobalHydrogenFlows-2023Update

HydrogenCouncil,McKinsey&Company

3

Keymessagesfromthisupdate

Despitetheexistingpositiveandgrowing

momentumonhydrogenuptake(refertoHydrogen

Insights2023),itisalsobecomingclearthatthe

currentgrowthrateisnotstrongenoughcomparedtowhatisrequiredforthenet-zerotrajectory,at

leastnotby2030.Acknowledgingthecriticalrole

hydrogenhastoplayfortheworldtodecarbonizeby2050,thereisaneedandurgencytostepupeffortsthataddresschallengesandunlockinvestments.

Estimatesofthelevelizedcostofhydrogen

(LCOH)forrenewablehydrogenarebetween30and65percenthigherthanthoseintheOctober2022report.Therevisedestimatesreflect

higherelectrolyzercapitalexpenditureaswellasrenewablecostsandfactorinelementsthatmayinfluenceindividualcountries’investmentattractiveness.

The2023analysisconsidersdemandandtrade

inascenariocalledFurtherAcceleration(FA),

onewheretheenergytransitionisaccelerated

comparedtotoday’spacebuttheworldstillfailstoreachbelowthe1.5°Ctemperaturetarget.Under

thisscenario,demandforcleanhydrogen(both

low-carbonandrenewable)couldreachover40

milliontonsperannum(MTPA)by2030.Tofeedthisdemand,nearly20MTPAcouldbetransportedlongdistancesmostlyviapipelinesorshipmentsofcleanammoniaasafuel,hydrogencarrier,andreplacinggreyammonia.By2050,cleanhydrogendemand

growsto375MTPAandaround200MTPAcouldbetransportedlongdistances.Bythen,pipelinescouldaccountforaround40percentoflong-distance

transportation,synthetickeroseneandammonia

another20percenteach,shippedhydrogen(either

viaammonia,LOHC,orLH2)10percent,withmethanolandgreensteelaccountingfor5

percenteach.

30to

65%

Increaseinrenewable

hydrogenLCOH

comparedto2022report

20MT

Hydrogentransportedover

longdistancesby2030

outof40MTinFurther

Accelerationscenario

200MT

Hydrogentransported

overlongdistancesby

2050outof375MTin

FurtherAcceleration

scenario

GlobalHydrogenFlows-2023Update

HydrogenCouncil,McKinsey&Company

4

$

$

By2030,evolvingproductioncostprofilestogetherwiththeintroductionofproductionincentivesin

somemarketscouldresultinaglobalcostcurve

witha15xcostdifferentialbetweenthelowestand

highestcostregions.Withcostsreachingbelow$1/kgduetosupplyincentivessuchastheInflation

ReductionActandover$5/kgattheupperend.Thiscouldleadtotradearbitrageopportunities.By2050,theglobalcostcurveisexpectedtoflattentoa2.5xcostdifferentialasincentivesexpireandrenewablecostsreducewiththemostcompetitiveregions

ataround$1.5/kgandhigh-costregionssittingataround$3.5/kg.

Tradereducesthecostofcarbonabatement,whencomparedtoascenariowhereglobaltradeis

limited.Indeed,theneedtoproducehighercost

hydrogen(withtradebeinglimited)wouldresultin

totalinvestmentrequirementsof$12trillion,by2050.Bycontrast,inascenarioinwhichinternational

hydrogentradecandevelop,totalhydrogen-relatedinvestmentswouldamounttoapproximately$8

trillionby2050,representinga$4trillioncost

savings.Tofacilitatelong-distancetransportation

ofhydrogenandderivatives,around$70billion

investmentswouldberequiredperyearintransport,conversion,andreconversion.

15X

Costdifferencein2030

betweenhighestand

lowestcostproduction

regions

$8TN

Totalhydrogenrelated

investmentsrequired

by2050

$70BN

Annualinvestments

requiredperyearby2050

intraderelatedinvestments

50%

Reductionintotal

hydrogeninvestments

unlockedthroughtrade

GlobalHydrogenFlows-2023Update

HydrogenCouncil,McKinsey&Company

5

Howthelandscapehaschanged

Thepast12monthshaveseensomemajorchangesinexpecteddemand,productionconditions,andregulations.

Hydrogendemandgrowthprojectionsremainrobustbuttemperedbyslowerdecarbonizationexpectations

Thereferencecaseofthe2022GlobalHydrogenFlowsreportwascalled“EfficientDecarbonization”

andreflectedtheHydrogenCouncil’snet-zeroscenario.Thissetoutthefullpotentialforhydrogento

decarbonizeenergysystemswithfewlonger-termconstraintsontrade,ensuringthatthe2050climate

changerequirementscouldbemetinaneconomicallyefficientway.Demandinthisscenarioreached

70MTPAofcleanhydrogenby2030outofatotalof140MTPA,and660MTPAofcleanhydrogenby

2050.Thereportalsopresentedthreebespokealternativescenarios,includingonewithalowerdemandcasecalledDelayedTransitionwheredemandreached100MTPAby2030(40MTPAofwhichwascleanhydrogen)and400MTPAby2050.

Sincethereportwasreleased,ithasbecomeclearerstillthattheworldisnotonanet-zerotrajectory,atleastnotby2030.Forinstance,inJune2023,aspartofMcKinsey’sGlobalEnergyPerspective,152

internationalenergyexpertsandexecutiveswereaskedwhatdecarbonizationtrajectorytheybelievedtheworldison.Thiswasthencomparedtoarangeof2023McKinseyenergytransitionscenarios.ThemajoritypickedatrajectorythatrepresentsascenarioknownasFurtherAcceleration(FA).Thisisonewheretheenergytransitionisacceleratedbutfinancialandtechnologicalconstraintsremainsothat

globalnetzeroisnotreachedby2050,resultingina1.9°Cglobaltemperatureincrease.Toaccountfortheconsensusviewonclimatechangetrajectory,theGlobalHydrogenTradeFlowresultsinthissummaryreporthavebeenupdatedusingtheFAscenario.

Thenet-zerodemandscenarioremainstheHydrogenCouncil’sreferencescenarioasitunderscores

thecriticalrolethathydrogenhastoplayfortheworldtodecarbonizeby2050.However,thedampenedoutlookreflectsarealitythatcannotbeignored—despitepositivetrends,bothproducersandwould-beusersofhydrogencontinuetofacechallenges,fromincreasingcoststotechnologicaluncertaintiesto

alackofcoherentandstableregulation,includingaglobalpriceoncarbon,thatimpactthepaceandbuildoutofthehydrogeneconomy.Thisservesasastarkreminderthat,forhydrogentoachieveitsfullpotential,thereisaneedtostepupeffortsthataddresschallengesandunlockinvestments.

GlobalHydrogenFlows-2023Update

HydrogenCouncil,McKinsey&Company

6

7

Renewablehydrogenwillplayanimportantrole,despiteahighercostoutlook

The2023analysisincludesadetailedbottom-upassessmentofthedevelopmentcostsoflarge-scale

renewablehydrogenprojectsundergoingfront-endengineeringdesign(FEED)studies.2Thisapproachconsidersnotjustequipmentcostsbutalsoincludesathoroughreviewofthebalanceofplant(BoP),aswellasengineering,procurement,andconstruction(EPC)costs.TheassessmentfoundthattheLCOHforrenewablehydrogenisbetween30and65percenthigherin2023whencomparedtoestimates

from2022.TheincreaseinLCOHisdrivenbyhighercapex,financing,andrenewablescosts,aswell

asthebroaderinclusionofadditionalcostssuchasEPC.AlargeportionofthecostincreaseisfromthehigherBoPandotherdevelopercosts,asfoundbyMcKinseyCapitalAnalyticsandMcKinseyHydrogenInsightswhenassessingelectrolysisconstructionprojects.Tosoftentheimpactofhigherplantcapex,

theelectrolyzersizecanbedecreasedorloadfactorincreasedbyswappinglower-costsolarwithlow-loadfactors,withsetupsthatyieldhigherloadfactorssuchaswindandhydropower.

Despitethehighercostoutlook,theanalysispointstorenewablehydrogenlargelymaintainingitsmarketsharecomparedtolow-carbonhydrogenfromgas—forreasonspotentiallyrangingfromafocuson

productsderivedfromrenewablestonewincentivesanddirectsupport.By2050,outof375MTPAof

totalcleanhydrogendemand,theforecastis265MTPArenewableand110MTPAlowcarbonreflectinga70:30split.(Seesidebar,“Renewablehydrogenmaintainsitsmarketshare”).

Costandtechnologyuncertaintiespersistinlow-carbonhydrogenproduction

Naturalgaspriceshaveseensustainedvolatilitysincetheinitialreportwasreleasedin2022.Atthe

timeofwriting,naturalgasfuturesinAsiaandEuroperemainelevatedandhavebeenusedtoguidetheupdatedviewto2030asgasproducersmayfavorexpandingexportsofnaturalgas.Beyond2030,thenaturalgaspriceoutlookisbasedonthesupply-demandbalanceexpectationsandisdifferentiatedbyregion.UndertheFAscenario,gasdemandandglobalgaspricesdeclineovertime,makinglow-carbonhydrogenproductionmorecompetitive.Atthesametime,thetrajectoryofthenaturalgasdemand

declineisslowerthanunderthenet-zeroscenario,increasingthepriceofbothnaturalgasandlow-

carbonhydrogen($0.10to0.20perkg)relativetothenet-zeroscenarioprojections.3Capexhasalso

risenforlow-carbonhydrogen,butthishasafarmorelimitedimpactonthecostofproduction,given

thatcostsaremostlyoperatingexpenditure(opex)driven.Higherelectrolyzercapexfavorslow-carbon

hydrogenproductionand—assumingCCScanbescaledupfastenough—low-carbonhydrogencouldaccountfor45percentofhydrogenproductioncomparedtothebasecaseof25to30percentandreachupto65percentoflong-distancetradedvolumes.

2Renewablehydrogenisproducedbyelectrolysisofwaterusingrenewableenergy,whilelow-carbonhydrogenishydrogenproduced

fromnaturalgasinafacilitythatusescarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)tosequestergreenhousegasemissionsarisingfromproduction;

McKinseyCapitalAnalyticsandMcKinseyHydrogenInsights.

3Globalenergyperspective2023,McKinsey,October2023.

GlobalHydrogenFlows-2023Update

HydrogenCouncil,McKinsey&Company

Policiesandproductionincentivescouldreducecosts,potentiallyboostingproductionandexports

PoliciessuchastheInflationReductionAct(IRA)intheUnitedStatesandtheCleanHydrogen

InvestmentTaxCredit(ITC)inCanadahavebeenfactoredintotheanalysis.4FortheUnitedStates,the

newestimatesincorporateaproductiontaxcredit(PTC)of$3perkgforrenewablehydrogenoverthe

firsttenyearsofaproject’sduration,withadditionalcreditsavailableonrenewableelectricitygeneration.Forlow-carbonhydrogen,producerscanselecteitheraPTCofupto$3.00perkgoverthefirsttenyearsor$85pertCO2forCCSinthefirst12years.5ForCanada,theupdateincludesanITCof40percentof

therenewablehydrogenplantcapexand30percentoftherenewablecapex,aswellas40percentofthelow-carbonhydrogenplantcapex.Incombination,thesemeasuresimpactpositionsonthecostcurveofhydrogenuntilthe2030s.

DemandmandatesforrenewablehydrogenfromtheRenewableEnergyDirective(REDIII)havebeenincorporatedintothemodelingforEurope.6Thisincludesthemandatefor42percentofhydrogen

productsconsumedbyindustry(excludingrefining)toberenewableby2030withthetargetincreasingto60percentby2035.

Renewablehydrogenmaintainsitsmarketshare

EstimatesofLCOHhavebeenrevisedinour2023update,ascomparedtothe2022report.However,theupdateindicatesthatrenewablehydrogenlargelymaintainsitsmarketsharecomparedtolow-carbon

hydrogenfromgas.Thiscanbeexplainedbymultiplefactors,including:

•Thedrivetoincreasetheuseofproductsderivedfromrenewables.Someregions,suchasEurope,haveregulationsinplacethatrequirerenewablehydrogenanditsderivativestomeetaportionofdemand.1

•Newincentivesanddirectsupport.Newincentivesforrenewablehydrogenareemerging,boostingshort-termeconomics.2

•CCSprogress.ThelatestpipelineofCCSprojectshasbeenusedtoguidetheleveloflow-carbonhydrogenproductionto2030withscaleupfactorsappliedbeyondthis.

•Highergasprices.IntheFurtherAccelerationscenariothatwasexploredinMcKinsey’s

GlobalEnergy

Perspective

,theenergytransitionisacceleratedbutnotenoughtomeetglobalnetzeroin2050.Highergaspricescouldcausesomereductioninthecompetitivenessofgas-based,low-carbonhydrogen,

withexistingexportersmonetizinggasforlongerviapipelinesandliquifiednaturalgas(LNG)exports.

1Globalhydrogenflows,McKinseyandtheHydrogenCouncil,October5,2022;

“RenewableEnergy:Counciladoptsnewrules,”Councilofthe

EU,October9,2023.

2“TheInflationReductionAct:Here’swhat’sinit,”McKinsey,October24,2022;“Consultationonthecleanhydrogeninvestmenttaxcredit,”GovernmentofCanada,June2,2023.

4“TheInflationReductionAct:Here’swhat’sinit,”McKinsey,October24,2022;“Consultationonthecleanhydrogeninvestmenttaxcredit,”GovernmentofCanada,June2,2023.

5“H.R.5376–InflationReductionActof2022,”C.

6“RenewableEnergyDirective,”EuropeanCommission,March30,2023.

GlobalHydrogenFlows-2023Update

HydrogenCouncil,McKinsey&Company

8

Threekeyfactorscoulddeterminethe

competitivenessofhydrogenproduction

Hydrogencanbeproducedalmostanywhere,butcompetitivenessvariesacrossregionsandmarkets—evenbeforeincentivesareconsidered.Commercialsupplypotential,andconsequentlytradepotential,canbeinfluencedbythreemainfactors.

ThefirstfactoristheLCOH.Forrenewablehydrogen,LCOHisprimarilydeterminedbylocalrenewablecosts,thesizeoftherenewablepotential(forexample,notallofthebestlocationswillbeavailable)andelectrolyzerutilization,whileforlow-carbonhydrogenitisdeterminedbythelocalcostsandavailabilityofmethaneandCCS,aswellasemissionspricing.The2022findingshavebeenupdatedtoreflect

thelatestdatarelatingtotheseparameters,andnowalsoconsidertheimpactonLCOHfromNorth

Americanincentivesthatarecurrentlyinplace.Thehigherelectrolyzercostsnowconsideredhavetwoimpactsonthecostcurve.Firstly,makinglow-carbonhydrogenproductionsourcesrelativelymore

competitive.Secondly,itincreasestheattractivenessofwindierlocationsforrenewablehydrogenprojectsasinturnthisleadstohigherelectrolyzerutilization.

ThesecondfactoristhepaceofCCSdeployment,whichdeterminestheabilitytoacceleratelow-carbonhydrogenproduction.Thelow-carbonhydrogenprojectpipelineto2030includedintheanalysisreflectsthecurrentpaceofCCSdeployment.CCScouldbeconsideredamoreimportantfactorindeterminingthecommercialpotentialoflow-carbonhydrogenthangasprices.

Thethirdfactorspanselementsthatmayinfluencearegion’sinvestmentattractiveness.Theseincludemarketefficiency,industrialcapability,workforceavailability,andlocalpublicacceptanceofbuildingnewinfrastructure.Toreflectthesefactors,theupdatedanalysisconsidersregionalpremiumswhich

influencetheweightedaveragecostofcapitalbybetween5and14percent.Ifthesepremiumsarenotincluded,projectionsofrenewablehydrogenproductionwouldbedrivensolelybyrenewableenergysystem(RES)quality.

Thepotentialnetimpactoftheseandotherfactorsoncleanhydrogenproductioncostsisdemonstratedonthe2030supplycostcurve(Exhibit1).

GlobalHydrogenFlows-2023Update

HydrogenCouncil,McKinsey&Company

9

Exhibit1

50percentofglobalH2productionisunder$2.5/kgH2

GlobalcleanH₂productioncostcurve,¹FurtherAccelerationscenario,2030

0

1

2

3

4

01234567

US

US

Canada

MiddleEast

Norway

Chile

Spain

Australia

Mauritania

WestChina

Brazil

India

Morocco

Namibia

Germany

~15×

EastChina

ratiobetween

lowest-

andhighest-

ArgentinaFrance

costregions

(including

incentives)

Italy

Japan

01

40milliontonsperannumcleanH₂demand,$

234567

Unitproductioncost,$/kgH₂

IncentivesRenewableH₂Low-carbonH₂

1Countriesarerepresentativeofproducersratherthenexhaustive.

Source:HydrogenCouncil,McKinseyGlobalHydrogenFlowModel

GlobalHydrogenFlows-2023Update

HydrogenCouncil,McKinsey&Company10

Long-distancetransportationof

hydrogenandderivativeswouldreduceoverallinvestmentrequirements

Thegeographiclocationofthemaindemandcentresforcleanhydrogendoesnotalwayscoincidewiththelocationsthatprovidetheconditionstoproducecleanhydrogeninfavorableconditions.Thisopenspotentialtradeopportunitiesbetweencountriesthathave(potential)excesscleanhydrogenproductioncapacityatattractivecost,andcountriesneedingtoimporthydrogen.

Futuretradeandtransportationinhydrogenanditsderivativeswillbedeterminedbyahostoffactorsincludingproductioncosts,thetypesofproductsbeingtransported,andotherprocessinputs.

Somehigh-demandareas—suchasJapan,SouthKorea,andpartsofEurope—willlikelyhavelimitedexcesspoweravailableforhydrogenproductionduetotherequirementforbroaderdecarbonizationofthepowersystem.Meanwhile,otherregionswilllikelyhaveexcessproductionpotentialabovelocaldemand,suchasSouthAmericaandtheMiddleEast.

By2050,severalcountriescouldbeproducinghydrogenatcloseto$1.50perkg,withthelowest

endoftheproductioncostspotentiallybeingcloseto$1.20perkg.Ontheotherendofthespectrum,

countrieswithlimitedlow-costcleanenergypotentialwouldseedomesticallyproducedhydrogenbeingsignificantlymoreexpensive,typicallyabove$3.50perkg.

Wheresupplysourcesareavailablelocally,thislocalproductionwouldinmanycasesbemorecost-

effectivethansupplyfromdistantproductionlocations,evenifthesearelowercost.Thisisbecause

long-distancehydrogentransportrequiresconversiontoanintermediaryatthepointofproductionandthenreconversionatthepointofuse,increasingcostsduetohydrogenlossesandrequirementsfor

otherinputssuchaselectricity.Long-distancetransportofhydrogenviaintermediarieswillthuslikelyonlyoccurwhenthereisnootheroption,forexample,wheredemandcenterssimplydonothavetheresourcestoproducehydrogenthemselves.

Transportationcostsofderivativessuchasammoniaandsynthetickeroseneare,however,smallrelativetotheoverallcostoftheproducts,duetohighervolumetricdensities.Therelativelylowtransportcostscouldpotentiallymakelong-distancetradeinderivativesfromlower-costcenterscompetitivewithlocalsuppliesinhigh-costmarkets.

GlobalHydrogenFlows-2023Update

HydrogenCouncil,McKinsey&Company11

AccessibilitytohighvolumesofcleanCO2,eitherfrombiogenicsourcesorviadirectaircapture,couldsignificantlyimprovethecompetitivenessofsyntheticfuels(synfuels)andmethanolproductioninsomelocationsandhencetheabilitytotradeintheseproducts.Brazil,Canada,China,Indonesia,andthe

UnitedStatesrepresentmorethan60percentoftheglobalcleanCO2available.Thisisexpectedto

remainthecaseuntilthe2040swhenthecostofdirectaircapturereducestocompetewithbiogenicsources.7AccesstoDR-gradeironoreisanotherdeterminingfactorthatwilllikelydrivehydrogen

productionforlow-carbonandgreensteelinareassuchasBrazilandSweden.Evenincountrieswithnoironoreresources,alowerLCOHcouldalsodriveironoreimportsandhotbriquettediron(HBI)

productionfordomesticandexportuse.

Totalhydrogen-relatedinvestmentsundertheFAscenariocouldamounttoapproximately$8trillion

by2050.Tofacilitatelong-distancetransportationofhydrogenandderivativesunderthisscenario,

annualinvestmentofaround$70billionintransport,conversion,andreconversioninfrastructure

wouldpotentiallyberequiredeachyearby2050.Thiswouldcoverthecostofbuildingandoperatingconversionandreconversioninfrastructure,morethan500shipsandcarriers,aswellasthepipelinesneededtotransportover200MTPAofhydrogenandhydrogenderivativesoverlongdistances.Theseinvestmentscouldsavesome$4trillionintotalinvestmentcostswhencomparedtoascenariowhereglobaltradeislimited.Thisisthankstotheabilitytoproducehydrogenandderivativesinlowercost

regionsandtransportittohigh-costproductionregions.Notethatevengreateroverallsavingscanbe

achievedifinvestmentswouldbeconsistentwiththenet-zeroscenario.Underanet-zeroscenariotraderelatedinvestmentswouldbedouble:$140billionby2050,tocoverthecostofmorethan1,100ships

andcarrierstotransporthydrogenderivativesandpipelinestomoveover200MTPAofhydrogenandthiswouldsaveover$6trillionininvestmentcostsacrossthevaluechain.

7McKinseyanalysisdrawingoninputsprovidedbyMcKinsey’sEnergySolutionsteam.

GlobalHydrogenFlows-2023Update

HydrogenCouncil,McKinsey&Company

12

Thecontinuedevolutionofglobal

traderoutes

Differentregionsarelikelytodrivehydrogenandderivativestradeatdifferentpointsintime.CanadaandtheUnitedStatesareexpectedtoinitiallybothbenethydrogenexporters,duetoarampupofproductionsupportedbytheIRAintheUnitedStatesa