巴罗宏观经济学：现代观点第17章课件

WorldMarketsinGoodsandCreditChapter171MacroeconomicsChapter17WorldMarketsinGoodsandCreditAssumptions:thegoodsarephysicallyidentical.transportcostsandbarrierstotradesmallenoughtoneglect.2MacroeconomicsChapter17WorldMarketsinGoodsandCreditlawofoneprice.Marketsworktoensurethatthesamegoodsellsatthesamepriceforallbuyersandsellersinalllocations.Wealsosimplifybyignoringinflation,sothatthepricelevel,P,isconstantovertime.3MacroeconomicsChapter17WorldMarketsinGoodsandCreditit

=ift

homenominalinterestrate=foreignnominalinterestratert

=rfthomerealinterestrate=foreignrealinterestrate4MacroeconomicsChapter17TheBalanceofInternationalPaymentsClosedeconomy:

Yt

=Ct+It+GtrealGDP=realdomesticexpenditure5MacroeconomicsChapter17TheBalanceofInternationalPaymentsOpenEconomyExportsarethegoodsandservicesproducedinthehomecountrythataresoldtotherestoftheworld,andimportsarethegoodsandservicesproducedbytherestoftheworldthatareboughtbythehomecountry.Thedifferencebetweenexportsandimports,ornetexports,iscalledthetradebalance.6MacroeconomicsChapter17TheBalanceofInternationalPaymentsYt+Impt=Ct+It+Gt+Expttradebalance=Expt-Impt

=Yt

−(Ct+It+Gt)tradebalance=realGDP−realdomesticexpenditure7MacroeconomicsChapter17TheBalanceofInternationalPaymentsBft:thenetnominalholdingsofforeignassetsbythehomecountryattheendofyeart.Theseassetsordebtscouldbeheldbythehomecountry’shouseholdsorgovernment.Theadditiontothehomecountry’sownershipofcapitallocatedintherestoftheworldiscalledforeigndirectinvestment.8MacroeconomicsChapter17TheBalanceofInternationalPaymentsnetrealassetincomefromabroad=rt−1

·Bft−1/PThetotalrealincomeofdomesticresidentsinyeartisthesumofrealGDP,Yt,andthenetrealassetincomefromabroad,rt−1

·Bft−1/P.Thistotaliscalledtherealgrossnationalproduct(realGNP).9MacroeconomicsChapter17TheBalanceofInternationalPaymentsrealGNP=Yt

+rt−1

·Bft−1/PrealGNP=realGDP+netrealassetincomefromabroad(Bft

−Bf

t−1)/P.iscallednetforeigninvestment10MacroeconomicsChapter17TheBalanceofInternationalPaymentsCt+It+Gt

+(Bft

−Bft−1)/P=Yt+rt−1·Bft−1/Prealdomesticexpenditure+netforeigninvestment=realGNPongoodsandservices11MacroeconomicsChapter17TheBalanceofInternationalPayments

(Bft−Bft−1)/P=Yt+rt−1

·Bft−1/P−(Ct+It+Gt)netforeigninvestment

=realGNP−realdomesticexpenditure

=realcurrent-accountbalance12MacroeconomicsChapter17TheBalanceofInternationalPaymentstherealcurrent-accountbalance.acurrent-accountsurplusacurrent-accountdeficitabalanceoncurrentaccount

13MacroeconomicsChapter17TheBalanceofInternationalPayments

(Bft

−Bft−1)/P=Yt−(Ct+It+Gt)+rt−1·Bft−1/Prealcurrent-accountbalance=tradebalance+netrealassetincomefromabroad14MacroeconomicsChapter17HistoryoftheU.S.Current-AccountBalance15MacroeconomicsChapter17HistoryoftheU.S.Current-AccountBalance16MacroeconomicsChapter17HistoryoftheU.S.Current-AccountBalance17MacroeconomicsChapter17HistoryoftheU.S.Current-AccountBalance18MacroeconomicsChapter17HistoryoftheU.S.Current-AccountBalance19MacroeconomicsChapter17ChineseTradeBalance20MacroeconomicsChapter17ChineseFDI21MacroeconomicsChapter17ChineseFDI年份黄金储备外汇储备(万盎司)(亿美元)197812801.67197912808.4019801280-12.961981126727.081982126769.861983126789.011984126782.201985126726.441986126720.721987126729.231988126733.721989126755.5019901267110.9319911267217.1219921267194.4319931267211.99年份黄金储备外汇储备(万盎司)(亿美元)19941267516.2020191267735.97201912671050.49201912671398.90201912671449.59201912671546.75200012671655.74201916082121.65201919292864.07201919294032.51201919296099.32201919298188.322019192910663.442019192915282.4922MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceAsmallcountrymodel:ProductionFunction:Yt

=A·F(K,Lt)TotalExpendituresYt

=Ct+It+Gttherealinterestrateonbonds,rt,hastoequaltherealrateofreturnoncapitalrt

=MPK−δ23MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceSuppose,tobegin,thatTherealinterestrateintherestoftheworld,rf,isconstantThedomesticrealinterestrateisalsosetatrf

Theopeninguptotheworldcreditmarketwouldnotchangetherealinterestrateavailabletothehomecountry’shouseholds.24MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceThehomecountrywouldendupwiththesamerealGDP,Yt,consumption,Ct

,grossdomesticinvestment,It

,andsoon.Therefore,theconditionYt

=Ct

+It

+Gt

wouldcontinuetohold.Wesee,accordingly,thatthetradebalancewouldbezerotradebalance=Yt

-（Ct+It+Gt）25MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceTherealcurrent-accountbalance:(Bft

−Bft−1)/P=Yt−(Ct+It+Gt)+rt−1·Bft−1/PSincethehomecountryhadinitiallybeenclosed,itmusthavestartedwithazeronetinternationalinvestmentposition,Bft−1=0.26MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceEffectsofanincreaseinA(Bft

−Bft−1)/P=Yt−(Ct+It+Gt)+rt−1·Bft−1/Pthenetrealassetincome,rt−1·(Bft−1/P),isgiven—forexample,atzeroifthehomecountrystartswithazeronetinternationalinvestmentposition,Bft−1

/P.Realgovernmentpurchases,Gt,arealsogiven.27MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceThehigherAraisestheMPKandtherebyincreasesgrossdomesticinvestment,It.IfthechangeinAispermanent,Ct

willrisebyroughlyasmuchasYt,sothatYt-Ct

doesnotchange.Thecurrent-accountbalancefallsoverall,i.e.,itmovestowarddeficitbecauseoftheincreaseinIt.28MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalance29MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalancecurrent-accountbalance,saving,andinvestment(Bft

−Bft−1)/P=

Yt+rt−1·Bft−1/P−δKt−1−(Ct+Gt)−(It−δKt−1)

realcurrent-accountbalance=realnationalsaving−netdomesticinvestment30MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceResultsconcerningtheopeningupofthehomecountrytotheworldcreditmarket.Supposethatrt>rf.Inthiscase,theopeningupofthehomecountrytotheworldcreditmarketresultsinacurrent-accountdeficit.Thehomecountryborrowsfromtherestoftheworldtopayforhighernetdomesticinvestment,It−δKt−1.31MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceResultsconcerningtheopeningupofthehomecountrytotheworldcreditmarket.Ifrt<rf,theresultsaretheopposite.Thehomecountryhasacurrent-accountsurplus—itlendstotherestoftheworldandhaslowernetdomesticinvestment,It−δKt−1.32MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceEconomicFluctuationsAraisesnetdomesticinvestment,It

−δKt−1.Wealsohavethatconsumption,Ct,rises,butbylessthantheincreaseinrealGDP,Yt(becausetheincreaseinAislessthanfullypermanent).Therefore,realnationalsavingincreases.Theoverallchangeintherealcurrent-accountbalancedependsonwhetherIt

−δKt−1risesbymoreorlessthanrealnationalsaving.Ingeneral,theoveralleffectontherealcurrent-accountbalanceisambiguous.33MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceEconomicFluctuationstheequilibriumbusiness-cyclemodelpredictsthattherealcurrentaccountbalancewillbecountercyclical—lowinboomsandhighinrecessions.34MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalance35MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceHarvestFailuresConsideraharvestfailure,whichresultsinadropinthehomecountry’srealGDP,Yt

.Iftheharvestfailureisexpectedtobetemporarytheincomeeffectisweak,andtheresponseofconsumption,Ct,issmall.Therefore,Yt

−Ct

fallssharply—thehomecountry’srealnationalsavingdecreasesalmostone-to-onewiththedeclineinYt.36MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceTheharvestfailuremaybelittleimpactontheMPK.Inthiscase,therewouldbelittleresponseofnetdomesticinvestment,It

−δKt−1.Aharvestfailureleadstoacurrent-accountdeficit.Thehomecountryborrowsfromabroadtomaintainroughlystableconsumption,Ct,andnetdomesticinvestment,It

−δKt−1.Inthiscase,acurrent-accountdeficitisasymptomofbadeconomictimes.37MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceGovernmentPurchaseswartimegovernmentpurchasesarevalidonlyifwecanholdfixedtherealinterestrateintherestoftheworld,rf.Inthiscase,acurrent-accountdeficitisasymptomofbadeconomictimes.38MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceDevelopingCountriesSupposethatthehomecountryisadevelopingcountrywithalowcapitalstock,Kt−1,andahighMPK.Acurrent-accountdeficittendstobeasignofafavorablegrowthenvironment,whereasacurrent-accountsurplusisasignofanunfavorableenvironment.39MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceCasestudies:Australia(Scoggins1990)PolandWWIandWWIIMexicoandBrazil40MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceTheCurrent-AccountDeficitandtheBudgetDeficitIfweallowforanopeneconomy,theimportantissueisstillwhetherabudgetdeficitaffectsrealnationalsaving.Therealcurrent-accountbalanceis(Bft

−Bft−1)/P=Yt+rt−1·Bft−1/P−δKt−1

−(Ct+Gt)−(It−δKt−1)41MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceTheCurrent-AccountDeficitandtheBudgetDeficitIntheRicardiancase,abudgetdeficitdoesnotchangerealnationalsavingandrealcurrent-accountbalancewouldnotchange.intheRicardiancase,abudgetdeficitdoesnotcreateacurrent-accountdeficit.42MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceTheCurrent-AccountDeficitandtheBudgetDeficitIfhouseholdsdonotsavethefullamountofthetaxcut—thatis,ifabudgetdeficitreducesrealnationalsaving.Consumption,Ct,rises,andrealnationalsavingdeclines.Abudgetdeficitleadstoacurrent-accountdeficit.43MacroeconomicsChapter17DeterminantsoftheCurrent-AccountBalanceTheCurrent-AccountDeficitandtheBudgetDeficitTwindeficits.EconomistsappliedthislabeltotheU.S.economyinthemid-1980s,whenbudgetdeficitswerelargeandtheratioofthecurrent-accountdeficittoGDPgraduallywidened.44MacroeconomicsChapter17TheTermsofTradeForheterogeneousgoodsTheratioP/Pfiscalledthetermsoftrade.Theunitsforthetermsoftradeare($perhomegood)/($perforeigngood)=foreigngoodperhomegood45MacroeconomicsChapter17TheTermsofTradeThetermsoftradegivethenumberofunitsofforeigngoodsthatcanbeimportedforeachunitofhomegoodsexported.Ifthetermsoftrade,P/Pf,rise—orimprove—thehomecountryisbetteroffbecauseitgetsmoreforeigngoodsinexchangeforeachunitofhomegoods.IfP/Pf

falls—orworsens—thehomecountryisworseoffbecauseitgetsfewerforeigngoodsinexchangeforeachunitofhomegoods.46MacroeconomicsChapter17TheTermsofTradeInourequilibriumbusiness-cyclemodel,economicfluctuationsresultfromshockstothetechnologylevel,A.Forasinglecountry,changesinthetermsoftradehaveeffectsthataresimilartochangesinA.47MacroeconomicsChapter17TheTermsofTradeTheTermsofTradeandtheCurrent-AccountBalancecurrent-accountbalanceinnominaltermsisBft

−Bft−1=PYt+rt−1·Bft−1−P·(Ct+It+Gt) nominalcurrent-accountbalance

=nomimalGNP−nominaldomesticexpenditure48MacroeconomicsChapter17TheTermsofTradeBft

−Bft−1=PYt+rt−1·Bft−1−Pf·(Ct+It+Gt)(Bft

−Bft−1)/Pf=(P/Pf)·Yt+rt−1·(Bft−1/Pf)−Pf·(Ct+It+Gt)arealvalueinthesenseofbeingmeasuredinunitsofforeigngoods.49MacroeconomicsChapter17TheTermsofTrade(Bft

−Bft−1)/Pf=(P/Pf)·Yt+rt−1·Bft−1/Pf−δKt−1−(Ct+Gt)−(It−δKt−1)

realcurrent-accountbalance=realnationalsaving−netdomesticinvestment50MacroeconomicsChapter17TheTermsofTradeTheTermsofTradeandtheCurrent-AccountBalanceAnincreaseinP/PfraisesrealGNP,measuredinunitsofforeigngoods,foragivenYt.HouseholdsrespondtothehigherrealGNPbyincreasingconsumption,Ct.TheresponseofCt

islargerthemorelong-lastingtheriseinP/Pf.Aslongasthechangeislessthanfullypermanent,Ct

tendstorisebylessthanrealGNP.Therefore,realnationalsavingincreasesTherealcurrent-accountbalancemovestowardsurplus.51MacroeconomicsChapter17TheTermsofTradeTheTermsofTradeandInvestmentanincreaseinthetermsoftrade,P/Pf,affectsnetdomesticinvestment,It−δKt−1.netrealrateofreturnoncapital=(P/Pf)·MPK−δ52MacroeconomicsChapter17TheTermsofTradeTheTermsofTradeandInvestmentTheeffectofhighertermsoftrade,P/Pf,onnetdomesticinvestment,It−δKt−1,isanalogoustotheeffectweconsideredbeforefromanincreaseinthetechnologylevel,A.WhenAincreased,theriseintheMPKraisedthenetrealrateofr