2022年医疗支出趋势报告

2022年医疗支出趋势报告

普华永道的健康研究所(HRI)与在美国健康计划工作的

精算师和该行业其他部门的医疗保健高管进行了交谈，

以估计来年的医疗成本趋势。

考虑到大流行导致的成本膨胀和缩减，HRI预计2022年

的医疗成本趋势为6.5%。这一趋势略低于2021年预计的

7%,略高于2016年至2020年期间的所有预测值。与2021

年相比，2022年的医疗成本的下降趋势反映了疫情对医

疗支出的持续影响逐步缓和。

接受HRI采访的美国健康计划高管一致认为，2022年的

2022年的医疗支出将恢复至疫情前的基线水平。

2022年值得关注的医疗支出趋势

•药品支出

专业药品支出是医疗成本趋势的持续驱动因素。对昂贵

的细胞和基因疗法的管道的资金投入只会增加，因为

FDA今年已经批准了两种新的细胞疗法治疗癌症，预计

在未来五年内将有15到30种此类疗法上市。

据IQVIA称，生物仿制药在美国的使用已经开始增加，

预计从2020年到2024年将节省1040亿美元，其中大部

分将在2023年和2024年实现。

雇主正在承担更多的成本增长。平均而言，与十年前相

比，保险在处方药零售支出中所占的份额有所增加，而

消费者在这方面所占份额近年来已趋于平稳。

・网络安全

与数据泄露和勒索软件攻击相关的间接成本可能创下新

高，这阻碍了企业的运作能力。

毫无疑问，网络攻击仍然是一个巨大的威胁，但要制定

防御网络威胁的投资决策却并不那么简单。普华永道调

查的健康行业高管中，48%的人表示，他们将在2021年

增加网络预算。

•意外账单

将于2022年1月1日生效的《无意外法案》(Nosurprise

Act)在很大程度上缓和了支付方和提供商之间的行业内

部争端。但这对雇主医疗支出的影响尚不明确。国会预

算办公室表示，该法案将把保费降低0.5%至1%,因为“部

分医疗服务提供商获得的保费将减少”。

医疗保健成本研究所总裁兼首席执行官NiallBrennan在

接受HRI采访时表示，“用来结束意外账单的机制似乎可

能会增加管理成本，最终将通过更高的保费转嫁到消费

者身上”。

Medical

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2022

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illness,hospitalizations,deathandaneconomiccalamity.Atthecenterofthis

turmoi*wastheUShealthsystem,whichrapidlyrespondedwithherculean

effodetocareforitspatientsandthedevelopment,manufactureand(distribution

ofsafe,effectivediagnostics,therapiesandvaccines.11.9%

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haslongresistedprofoundshjfts.In2022,thehealthsystemwilltakeatxeathand

surveythefalloutfromtheseextraordinaryfewyears.

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withactuariesworkingatUShealthplansandheaRhcareexecutivesinother

partsoftheindustrytogenerateanestimateOTmedicalcosttrendforthecoming

year.Takingintoaccountthepandemic-rootedfnflakxsanddeflatorsofcost,

HRI用projectinga6.5%medicalcosttrendincalendaryear2022.Thistrend

isslighttylowerthantheprojectedmedicalcosttrendin2021,whichwas7%,

andslightlyhigherthanitwasbetween2016and2020(seeFigure1).Thelower

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In2022:

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toincreasein2022assomecaredeferreddunngalternative&itesofcare,insomecasesinplaceofa

thepancfem>creturns;coststotestfor.treatandvisittotheemergencydepartment.HRIexpectthis

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mentalhealthandsubstanceuseissuesremainhigh;m2022.

andpopulationhealthworsens.

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pandemic.Investmentstobolstershortfallsintheofworkingforcedbyth©pandemic,including

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areexpectedtodnvehigherpricesin2022.Theytechnology,canhelpproviderslowertheircost

includeinvestments»nnewforecastingtools,siructure>nresponsetopressureonprices,including

improvementstoth©supplychain,increasedwagesth©newpricetransparencyregulationsandgrowing

forsomestaff,slockpifesofpersonalprotectiveintersstinnarrownetworks?HRIexpectstinswill

equipment(PPE)andinfrastructurechanges.dampenpriceincreasesandspendingin2022.

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relationshipincreaseutilization.HRIexpectsthesefactorsincreasinganddecreasingthemedscal

providerstoaccelerateinvestmentsindigitaltooiscosttrendm2022,othernon-panctemic-relateddrivers

andanalyticscapabilitiestostrengthenthepatientordampenersofspendingshouldnotbeignored,

reialiorshlp,boostingutilizationin2022.includingdrugspending,cybersec5yandthe

surprise-billinglegislationpassed»nDecember2020

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byHRIinSeptember2020saidtheyhad

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thenextpandemic

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