某咨询公司：日本ransCosmos进入中国的策略报

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TRANS-COSMOSINC.CHINAENTRYSTRATEGYPRESENTATIONFebruary8,2001AGENDAExecutiveSummaryCallCenterBusinessMarketOverviewCCCustomerSegmentationIn-houseusersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccessbusinessmodelPartneringstrategyE-CommerceMarketOverviewTCITianjinCurrentSituationAnalysisRecommendationsAGENDAExecutiveSummaryCallCenterBusinessMarketOverviewCCCustomerSegmentationIn-houseusersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccessbusinessmodelPartneringstrategyE-CommerceMarketOverviewTCITianjinCurrentSituationAnalysisRecommendationsCHINAISBECOMINGAHIGHLYDYNAMICCCMARKETChina’scallcentermarkettookoffsince1998withanannualgrowthrateover100%Non-pagingmarketsizereached54,000seatsin2000HoweverpastgrowthwaslargelydrivenbydemandsfromadministrativedrivensectorOver60%ofthenewCCdemandcomesfromfourpillarindustries:Banking,PostServices,Fixed-lineTelecom,andInsuranceDistinctivepurchasingbehavioridentifiedforthesepurchasesFuturegrowthwillbepropelledbyserviceorientedandoutsourcingsegmentsServiceorientedsegmentexpectedtobe50%oftotalCCmarketOutsourcingmarketwillgrowatleast50%ayearforthenextfewyearsHoweverlargevarianceexistsforoutsourcingsegmentgrowthOverall,ChinaCCmarketisexpectedtoreachover130,000seatsin2004and340,000seatsin2010CCOURSOURCERSAREEMERGINGBUTSTILLEXPLORING(I)Currently,CCoutsourcingbusinessisbrandnewinChinaNomorethan30companiesprovidingmerelyabout3,200seatsinserviceOver70-80%supplyconcentratedin4majorcitiesFutureoutsourcingdevelopmentishighlydependentoncurrentplayer’sperformanceandstrategiesPotentialcustomersconcernedaboutquality,confidentiality,informationprocessingability,HR,andpriceGrowthwillfluctuatewidelyaccordingtotheindustry’sabilitytosatisfycustomerconcernsandrequirementsnowInshortterm,competitionwillbeminimumduetohighlydifferentiatedpositionsandlargenumberofunexploitedpotentialoutsourcingcustomersInmediumterm,pagingcompaniescanbepowerfulanddesperatecompetitorsinthelow-endoutsourcingmarketThatmightdistorttheindustryprofitabilityandtriggerviciouscompetitionHoweverhigh-endoutsourcingmarketmightbeintactCurrently,onlylow-price/standardservicevendorsareprofitableUtilization,andtherefore,long-termcustomers,isthekeyforprofitabilityHowever,high-pricedoutsourcingsolutionsnotwidelyacceptedbythemarketButinthelong-run,webelievehigh-endserviceswillbevaluedbycustomersWeareencouragedbyrecentpositivenewsonclients’long-termcommitmentstohigh-endoutsourcersWithChina’spendingWTOEntryandcontinuedeconomicgrowth,webelieveit’sthedirectionHigh-endoutsourcerscanwinthegamebyaggressivelyestablishinglong-termclientbase,andtargetingvariousoutsourcingopportunitiesalongthevaluechainFivesuccessfulstrategiesidentifiedfornewcustomerdevelopmentTelemarketingandvalue-addedinformationservicemostlikelytobeoutsourcedCCOURSOURCERSAREEMERGINGBUTSTILLEXPLORING(II)TCISHOULDPARTNERWITHRIGHTLOCALCCOUTSOURCERSApartneringstrategyisessentialforTCItocapturethegreatopportunitiesinChinaTCIlacksabunchoflocalcapabilities,whiletimeiscontingentTCIshouldtargetbothmoneymaking,andmoneylosingtechadvancedoutsourcersduringnegotiationprocess,basedontwoplausiblepartnershipstrategiesMoneymakingones:shareprofitsandleveragelocalstrengthMoneylosingones:controlandnegotiateforabargaindealConsideringthelimitednumberofcandidatesinChinaandTCI’stightschedule,abroadersearchcanstrengthenTCI’snegotiationpositionFivepromisingoutsourcersidentifiedduringtheinterviewprocessMoneymakingones:ChinaMotion,800Teleservices,andCompaq-StarMoneylosingones:TCY,ITSShanghaiEC:ONLYSOFTWAREFIRMSANDSIsWORTHPURSUINGAlthoughunderbooming,ChinaE-CommercemarketareexperiencingbottlenecksOnlinepopulationandrevenuesgrew10timesinthepast3yearsHowever,macro-environmentandinfrastructureareproblematic……andonlyfewICP/ISPsaremakingmoneyICP,ISPandtechnologycompanies,asasector,arenotworthTCI’spursuitICP:MarketisdownwhilemostChinaICPsarestillattheirearlystagedevelopmentISP:Highlyfragmentedandregulated,whichsuffocatebothforeignparticipationandprofitabilityTechcompanies:SuperioronescanhardlysurviveinChinaHowever,severaltopventuresintheabovesectorsarequiteinteresting,whichareidentifiedandillustratedindetailforTCI’sfurtherinterestICP:51;S;A;DISP:263Net;EastnetTCI-TJ:RSTRUCTURINGANDBUILDINGSTRATEGICALLIANCESTCI-TJexperienceddifficultiesduetobothpromotionandmanagementissuesThoughimproving,thefirmisintrinsicallyuncompetitiveinChinamarketItshouldrestructureforbetterperformance…RedefinecorporatemissionsandstrategiesRestructureprojectarrangement,reporting,measurementandincentivesystemsRefocusitssalesonJapanesecompaniesinChinaandinJapan…andfindstrategicallianceforTCI’sChinaexpansionTCIshouldonlypartnerwithprestigiouslocalsoftwarecompanyorsystemintegratorsWisewayscreenedallthepotentialcandidateslistsandfunneleddown5mostpromisingcompaniesforTCI’sfurthercontactLongshine;GlobaleForce;eBIS;ModernComputer;HuatengSoftwareAGENDAExecutiveSummaryCallCenterBusinessMarketOverviewCCCustomerSegmentationIn-houseusersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccessbusinessmodelPartneringstrategyE-CommerceMarketOverviewTCITianjinCurrentSituationAnalysisRecommendationsCCMERELYABUSINESSPRACTICEBEFORE1997HightelecomchargeLowphonepenetrationWeakserviceattitudeWidespreadindustrymonopolyCommercialCClessthan10,000seatsin1997(2)Phonecallcharge(centsperminute)ChinaUSPhonepenetration(%)#ofphones(1)(million)1997825399229AutomotiveExample:ExpertSurvey1997PriceCompetitionfocus(%)(1)Fixedline+mobile(2)Excludingabout50,000seatsinpagingcompanySource:WorldDevelopmentReport1999/2000;ChinaAutoMarket1997;JardingFlemingResearch;interviewsQualityServiceStyleNationalmonopolyBankingTelecomInsuranceUtilitityRegionalprotectedSteelAutoPetrochemicalTobacco...Monopolizedindustryestimated55%ofindustrialoutputHighertelecompenetrationCOMMERCIALCCTOOKOFFSINCE1998

EspeciallyinNon-PagingServiceSectorPenetration(%)YearCAGRFixedlineMobile37%83%Non-pagingCCseats(’000)YearCAGR=129%IntensifiedcompetitionMostindustriescapacityoverproductionDecliningretailpricesYearGDPindexRetailpriceindexIndexGrowingawarenessoftechnologyInternetusers(mio)E-Commercerevenue(US$M)GraduallyreducedtelecomfeeSource:JardingFlemingResearch;ChinaStatisticsYearbook;interviews;OECD;ChinaTelecomLongdistance(RMB/min)(1.2)(0.8)(1.0)(0.7)

>800km<800kmCCINDUSTRYWILLREACH330-370KSEATSIN2010IllustrationIdentifymajordrivingfactorstoCCadoption- marketcompetitionandserviceawareness- telecomchargesandphonepenetrationQuantifyrelationshipsbetweendriversandCCadoptionhereweusedUSbenchmarkProjectCCdevelopmentbyforecastingdevelopmentofdriversProjectCCpenetrationinmajoruser’sindustries- banking,telecom,insurance…AddupnumbersofeachindustrytogiveaCCmarketoverviewInterviewindustryexpertsorknowledgeableindustrypractitionersfortheiropinionofCCmarketgrowth- systemintegratorsandexperts2004projection(1)(’000seats)1581321452010projection(1)(’000seats)368337N.A.DrivingfactoranalysisBottom-upanalysisExpertsopinions(1)WithoutpagingcompanyTOP-DOWNAPPROACHREVEALSAPROMISINGENDGAMEPhonelineper1000peopleCCagentsper1000peopleUSbenchmarkY=0.00146X+4.79DeflatedtelecomfeeindexPhonelineper1000peopleChinaphonelineYearNon-pagingCCseats(‘000)Source:USTelephoneStatistics;Datamonitor;MIIdata;ChinaStatisticsYearbook1998992000010410REDUCINGTELECOMCHARGESWILLBOOSTFIXED-LINEADOPTIONBackupCompetitionpushesfurthertelecomreductionMostalternativesatleast50%cheaperIP,internetphonecall,“callback”services…Ministrydeterminedtofurtherreducetelecomcharges“Currenttelecomchargestilldoesnotreachitsoptimumstageyet”- MinisterofMIITelecomreductionprojectionPhonepenetrationper1000Deflatedpriceindex(1)Phonelineper1000peopleYear(1)PricedeflatedbyGDPindexSource:ChinaTelecomChargesPolicyBook;BCGanalysisTELECOMISTHEMOSTSIGNIFICANTCCUSERNOW

Bottom-upAnalysisIndustryTelecomMobileBankingInsurancePostserviceManufacturingComputerAirlineSecurityCourierHomeapplianceTVsellingOthersOverallProjectedseatsCAGR200025,0007,6674,5452,0001,6001,5018005942572402403006,67551,419200435,71422,85711,1003,7606,0007,5195,2504,1004,1581,0002,4601,00026,669131,588201041,66750,00047,0009,85020,83325,18414,0009,60032,6003,3338,8002,00071,965336,8322000-049%31%25%17%39%50%60%62%101%43%79%35%41%26%2004-103%14%27%17%23%22%18%15%41%22%24%12%18%17%Source:interviews;onlineresearch;expertsopinions;BCGanalysisEXPERTOPINIONSREVEALAMARKETOF145,000IN2004“Fastdevelopmentisexpectedtocontinueinthenextfiveyears.Ibelievethatcallcentersseatswillgrowat30%ayearforthenextfiveyears(whichmeans145,000in2004)”Director,CTIForum“Comparedto1999,in2000callcenterseatsincreasedby142%,or16,000seats”ChinaComputerNews“Inthenextthreeyears,weprojectthatcallcenterseatswilldouble.It’sourconservativeestimate.”ManagerofBusinessDevelopmentDept,HuaweiSource:BCGinterviewsAGENDAExecutiveSummaryCallCenterBusinessMarketOverviewCCCustomerSegmentationIn-houseusersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccessbusinessmodelPartneringstrategyE-CommerceMarketOverviewTCITianjinCurrentSituationAnalysisRecommendationsCHINACCUSERBASEVERYDIFFERENTFROMU.S.SelectedindustryexplanationTelecomChinatelecomcallcenterinvestmentisstillquitegovernmentdriven.Topromote“189”serviceline,MIIdemandcallcenterateachcity/countylevelManufacturingManufacturingCCusagestillnotwidelyadoptedyet.Moststate-ownedcompaniesareunwillingandunabletoinvestinserviceRemoteshoppingAlthoughremoteshoppingisthebiggestCCuserintheUS,it’smerelythecaseherebecauseofinconvenientpayment,creditanddeliverysystem.Also,shoppingconvenienceinmetropolitanareaandgeneralpoorconsumptionpowermakeremoteshoppingeconomicallyunsoundOthersOutsourcingSecurityTVsellingNews&mediaAirlineComputer/TechManufacturingPostserviceInsuranceBankingMobileFixed-lineTelecomChinaUSOthersOutsourcingTransportHealthcareUtilitiesRemoteshoppingSecuritiesAirlineTechnologyManufacturingInsuranceBankingTelecomOur1.5monthsinterviewshavewellcoveredtheaboveindustriesSource:Datamonitor;Interviews;onlineresearch;expertopinions;BCGanalysisCCM浙ARKE束TRO狡UGHL社YSE始GMEN俯TED血INTO粥FOU茶RCA住TEGO愧RIESAcco贝rdin斗gto主Are桶aof机CC耗Usag攻e,a剧ndW访illi泄ngne铃sst删oOu更tsou访rceSel计ect曲ed侵ind广ust踪蝶ry宫exa今mpl旅esWill糟ingn拦ess都too愈utso处urceHig尖hLowServ良ice-醒orie召ntedOuts薄ourc徐ingGen块eri恨cs检erv防iceAdm止in-缓dri角venSec奏uri压tie炎sHom务ea享ppl义ian删ceCom慌put席er/娇tec嫂hno赔log使yCour蝴ier帽serv促icePub桑lic银ati英onTVs虑elli狠ngMes赤sag窝ingTra心velSim费ple仅or秃der食ta瓣kin烤gPagi资ngTele颠comInsu鹅ranc夹eBankPost倾ser牙viceCom叫mun怪ity踪蝶se寒rvi垦ceUtil三ityCor缝ea控reaNon-锡core筋are秃aArea三of讯CCu缴sageTHR为EE轿CRI牙TER储IA箩TO井DIS倍TIN存GUI蚁SH育COR步EA丧ND历NON岁-CO趟RE钥ARE跳AIndu裳stryCore织Are堵aSec欠uri仪tie糕sCour葱ier套serv秆iceComp滩uter钉/tec传hnol奸ogy“Grey疾Are嗓a”Home挂app功lian赚ceBan寺kin望gIns百ura萍ncePubl彼icat耀ionTele辈comTra共vel伤ingNon-摔core走Are年a(g崖ener堡ic)Pag肆ing福se庭rvi手ceMess仰agin浪gTVs械elli感ngUti提lit挂iesFunc收tion胆alit瞒yTech架nica草las浪sist咽anceAfte榆rsal其ess疏ervi争ceCust嫩omer业com舌plai他nts抵ettl嗓emen驼tSou阶rci悄ng/小sup约pli伏er兼coo应rdi卖nat菌ionCust廉omer于inq飘uiry多set帖tlem劲entTel翼ema降rke赵tin乌gMess桂age挥deli透veri坏ngSim当ple议or锯der识ta饺kin健gCall垦Cen态ter’寸sim筒pact爹to染over香all粱busi苹ness- 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