征信产品在商业银行信用风险管理中的应用99

“征信产品在商业银行信用风险管理中的应用”

国际研讨会

SYMPOSIUMON“CREDITREPORTINGANDRETAIL&SMEFINANCE”

主办Sponsoredby：

中国人民银行ThePeople’sBankofChina

国际金融公司InternationalFinanceCorporation

2007年6月20-21日中国天津20-21June2007Tianjing,China

1如何在住房按揭贷款中有效地使用征信机构服务

HOWTOUSECREDITBUREAUS

TODOBETTERMORTGAGELENDING主讲人By国际金融公司住房融资咨询顾问N科库拉鲁潘N.Kokularupan

Consultant,HousingFinanceGroup,InternationalFinanceCorporation本演讲内容系作者观点，并不代表国际金融公司的观点ViewsexpressedinthispaperarethatoftheauthoranddoesnotrepresenttheviewsofIFC2导言INTRODUCTION什么是征信WhatisCreditReporting-对财务关系表现信息的收集、共享和分发的过程Processofgathering,sharinganddistributinginformationregardingperformanceoffinancialrelationships征信服务可以由以下机构提供CreditReportingcanfallunder(a)征信机构CreditBureaus(b)公共信贷登记系统CreditRegistries征信机构和公共信贷登记系统在运营方面有区别OperationaldifferencesbetweenaCreditBureauandaCreditRegistry3信用信息系统的特征ATTRIBUTESOFACREDITINFORMATIONSYSTEM最好同时包括负面和正面信息Containsbothnegativeandpositiveinformation-可信赖Trust-可靠且全面的数据Reliableandcomprehensivedata4美国的征信机构CREDITREPORTINGAGENCIESINUSA美国的3大征信机构：USA–3majorcreditreportingagenciesnamely:-Experian、Equifax和TransUnion Experian,EquifaxandTransUnion-属私营机构PrivateCompanies

5信贷评分CREDITSCORES衡量逾期或违约风险的数值结果Numberscalculatedtomeasureriskofdelinquencyordefault被美国大多数住房按揭贷款人用于借款人评级UsedbymostmortgagelendersinUStorankborrowers确定借款人是否符合借贷条件Determineborrowers’qualificationsforaloan放贷额度Quantumofloan按揭利率Mortgagerate6信贷评分的使用日益普遍GROWTHINUSEOFCREDITSCORES

信贷评分使用率的增长源于：Increasinguseofcreditscoresresultsfrom:

技术进步Technologicaladvances

风险定价Risk-basedpricing

消费者越来越能够直接获得信贷评分Increasingdirectconsumeraccessforcreditscores7个人信用报告CONSUMERCREDITREPORT收录了个人信用偿还历史的实际记录Containsfactualrecordofindividual’screditpaymenthistory

包括四大方面内容：Generallycovers4broadareas:

身份识别信息Identifyinginformation

所有账户的信用信息Creditinformationonallaccounts

公共记录Publicrecords

查询信息Inquiries8住房按揭贷款和征信服务的使用MORTGAGELENDINGANDTHEUSEOFCREDITBUREAUS住房按揭贷款人面临来自盈利、合规和竞争方面的压力Mortgagelendersfacepressuressuchasneedtoachieveprofitability,complywithcomplexregulatoryframeworkandcompetition住房按揭贷款人的放贷政策反映了该机构自身的风险偏好、利润率要求和所处细分市场的特征Mortgagelendersunderwritingpolicieswillreflectinstitutionsappetiteforrisk,levelofprofitsanditsmarketsegmentation信贷评分模型具有预测能力，使贷款人能够评估违约的可能性Creditscoringmodelshavepredictivepower,thusenablinglenderstoassessthelikelihoodofdefault通过使用信贷评分模型和自动化放贷流程，放贷速度和准确程度都得以提高，从而使更多的借款人受益IncreasingnumberofborrowershavebenefittedfromthespeedandaccuracyprovidedbytheuseofCreditScoringModelsandautomatedunderwriting9住房按揭贷款和征信服务的使用（续）MORTGAGELENDINGANDTHEUSEOFCREDITBUREAUS(Continued)在美国，住房按揭贷款和住房按揭金融业已经历了几十年的发展历程InUS,mortgagelendingandmortgagefinanceindustryexperienceddecadesofdevelopment随着中国住房按揭行业的发展——有必要研究美国模式，找出适应中国现有法律体制和监管安排的内容AsresidentialmortgageindustrydevelopsinChina–usefultoreviewtheUSmodeltosuitthecurrentinstitutionallegalandregulatoryarrangementsinChina个人征信系统曾在美国住房按揭贷款行业的各个方面发挥了重要作用，而且还在继续发挥作用。要在中国创建一个先进的征信体系是一项艰巨的任务ConsumercreditreportingplayedandplaysacrucialroleineveryfacetofUSmortgagelending.NoteasytoestablishanadvancedsystemofcreditreportinginChina住宅行业需要从银行和投资者那里获得资金。有必要在中国实行住房按揭贷款证券化，而要进行证券化，就需要准确的信贷模型以衡量按揭支持证券中蕴含的风险Housingrequiresmoneyfrombanksandinvestors.NeedtodevelopsecuritizationofmortgageloansinChinaandsecuritizationrequiresaccuratecreditmodelstomeasurerisksembeddedinmortgagebackedsecurities10个人信贷评分和住房按揭贷款风险CONSUMERCREDITSCOREANDMORTGAGECREDITSCORERISK住房按揭贷款的主要风险因素分为以下3类：Mainmortgageriskfactorsaregroupedunder3categories:

借款人特征BorrowerCharacteristics

贷款特征LoanCharacteristics

担保物特征CollateralCharacteristics以上均为静态变量，随着时间的推移，这些风险因素的相对重要性也可能产生变化Allarestaticvariableswhichcouldchangetherelativeimportanceofriskfactorsovertime11住房按揭贷款总体风险模型MODELLINGTOTALRISKOFMORTGAGE提前还贷风险与信贷风险PrepaymentRiskversusCreditRisk

当发生违约或提前还贷时，住房按揭贷款合同即告终止Mortgagecontractterminatesondefaultorprepaymentoftheloan

从住房按揭贷款人的角度看存在2种风险2typesofriskfrommortgageinvestors’perspective: (a)违约风险Defaultrisk (b)提前还贷风险Prepaymentrisk

12住房按揭贷款总体风险模型（续）MODELLINGTOTALRISKOFMORTGAGE(Continued)导致借款人提前还贷的原因如下：Borrowerprepaysforfollowingreasons:市场按揭利率已经下降Marketmortgageinterestratehasdeclined房屋所有人已积累了相当的家庭资产（住房价值已上升），希望借到比未偿还本金更多的钱Houseownerhasaccumulatedsubstantialhomeequityandwantstoborrowlargeramountofmoneythanunpaidprincipal家庭经济或人口状况发生改变Changeintheeconomicordemographicconditionsinthehousehold在亚洲国家——存在”无债一身轻”的传统观念InAsiancountries-debtavoidanceculture导致违约的原因则更为复杂Defaultismoredifficulttocomprehend触发因素Triggeredby:房屋价值下降Negativehomeequity家庭变故——离异等Stressfulfamilyevents–divorceetc.被解雇Layofffromwork生意不稳定或工薪阶层被减薪Swingsinbusinessorcutinsalaryforfixedwageearners13住房按揭贷款总体风险模型（续）MODELLINGTOTALRISKOFMORTGAGE(Continued)上世纪90年代之前——采用人工放贷方式——放贷流程运作缓慢，风险分析能力有限，贷款定价完全由风险因素决定。这对于拥有良好偿还历史记录的借款人较为不利。Priorto1990s–manualunderwriting–slowprocessandlimitedabilitytoanalyzeriskfactorsinvolvedandpriceloansbasedonriskfactors.Disadvantageoustoborrowerswithexcellentpaymenttrackrecord现在，诸如信贷风险模型和自动化放贷等强有力的工具使住房按揭贷款人能够更容易地评估和管理信贷风险Now,powerfultoolssuchascreditriskmodelsandautomatedunderwritingmakeiteasierformortgagelenderstoassessandmanagecreditrisk14使用征信机构产品／服务时需要注意的几个问题ISSUESINUSINGCREDITBUREAUS放贷决策过程对信贷评分的依赖程度逐渐上升；贷款人，特别是住房按揭贷款人，需要考虑的问题Increasedrelianceoncreditscoresinlendingdecisions,especiallybymortgagelendershaveraisedthefollowingissues:(a)成本Cost(b)可获得性Access(c)一致性Consistency(d)准确度Accuracy15)z0C4F7IaMdPgSkVnZq$t*x-A1D5G8KbNeQiTlWo#r%v(y+B3E6H9LcOfRjUmYp!s&w)z0C4F7JaMdPhSkVnZq$u*x-A2D5G8KbNfQiTlXo#r%v(y0B3E6I9LcOgRjVmYp!t&w)z1C4G7JaMePhSkWnZr$u*x+A2D5H8KbNfQiUlXo#s%v(y0B3F6I9LdOgRjVmYq!t&w-z1C4G7JbMePhTkWnZr$u(x+A2E5H8KcNfRiUlXp#s%v)y0C3F6IaLdOgSjVmYq!t*w-z1D4G7JbMeQhTkWoZr$u(x+B2E5H9KcNfRiUmXp#s&v)y0C3F7IaLdPgSjVnYq$t*w-A1D4G8JbNeQhTlWoZr%u(x+B2E6H9KcOfRiUmXp!s&v)z0C3F7IaMdPgSkVnYq$t*x-A1D5G8JbNeQiTlWo#r%u(y+B3E6H9LcOfRjUmYp!s&w)z0C4F7JaMdPhSkVnZq$t*x-A2D5G8KbNeQiTlXo#r%v(y+B3E6I9LcOgRjUmYp!t&w)z1C4F7JaMePhSkWnZq$u*x+A2D5H8KbNfQiUlXo#s%v(y0B3E6I9LdOgRjVmYp!t&w-z1C4G7JaMePhTkWnZr$u*x+A2E5H8KcNfQiUlXp#s%v)y0B3F6IaLdOgSjVmYq!t*w-z1D4G7JbMePhTkWoZr$u(x+A2E5H9KcNfRiUlXp#s&v)y0C3F6IaLdPgSjVnYq!t*w-A1D4G8JbMeQhTlWoZr%u(x+B2E6H9KcOfRiUmXp!s&v)z0C3F7IaLdPgSkVnYq$t*w-A1D5G8JbNeQhTlWo#r%u(y+B2E6H9LcOfRjUmXp!s&w)z0C4F7IaMdPhSkVnZq$t*x-A2D5G8KbNeQiTlWo#r%v(y+B3E6H9LcOgRjUmYp!s&w)z1C4F7JaMdPhSkWnZq$u*x-A2D5H8KbNfQiTlXlXo#s%v(y0B3E6I9LdOgRjVmYp!t&w-z1C4G7JaMePhTkWnZr$u*x+A2D5H8KcNfQiUlXo#s%v)y0B3F6I9LdOgSjVmYq!t&w-z1D4G7JbMePhTkWoZr$u(x+A2E5H9KcNfRiUlXp#s&v)y0C3F6IaLdOgSjVnYq!t*w-z1D4G8JbMeQhTkWoZr%u(x+B2E5H9KcOfRiUmXp#s&v)z0C3F7IaLdPgSkVnYq$t*w-A1D5D5G8JbNeQhTlWo#r%u(y+B2E6H9LcOfRjUmXp!s&v)z0C4F7IaMdPgSkVnZq$t*x-A1D5G8KbNeQiTlWo#r%v(y+B3E6H9LcOgRjUmYp!s&w)z1C4F7JaMdPhSkWnZq$u*x-A2D5H8KbNfQiTlXo#r%v(y0B3E6I9LcOgRjVmYp!t&w)z1C4G7JaMePhSkWnZr$u*x+A2D5H8KcNfQiUlXo#s%v)y0B3F6I9LdOgSjVmYq!t&w-z1C4G7JbMePhTkWnZr$u(x+A2E5H8KcNfRiUlXp#s%v)y0C3F6IaLdOgSjVnYq!t*w-z1D4G8JbMeQhTkWoZr%u(x+B2E5H9KcNfRiUmXp#s&v&v)z0C3F7IaLdPgSjVnYq$t*w-A1D4G8JbNeQhTlWoZr%u(y+B2E6H9KcOfRjUmXp!s&v)z0C4F7IaMdPgSkVnZq$t*x-A1D5G8KbNeQiTlWo#r%u(y+B3E6H9LcOfRjUmYp!s&w)z0C4F7JaMdPhSkVnZq$u*x-A2D5G8KbNfQiTlXo#r%v(y0B3E6I9LcOgRjVmYp!t&w)z1C4F7JaMePhSkWnZq$u*x+A2D5H8KbNfQiUlXo#s%v(y0B3F6I9LdOgRjVmYq!t&w-z1C4G7JbMePhTkWnZr$u(x+A2E5H8KcNfRiUlXp#s%v)y0B3F6IaLdOgSjVmYq!t*w-z1D4G7JbMeQhTkWoZr$r$u(x+B2E5H9KcNfRiUmXp#s&v)y0C3F7IaLdPgSjVnYq$t*w-A1D4G8JbNeQhTlWoZr%u(y+B2E6H9KcOfRiUmXp!s&v)z0C3F7IaMdPgSkVnYq$t*x-A1D5G8JbNeQiTlWo#r%u(y+B3E6H9LcOfRjUmYp!s&w)z0C4F7JaMdPhSkVnZq$t*x-A2D5G8KbNeQiTlXo#r%v(y+B3E6I9LcOgRjUmYp!t&w)z1C4F7JaMePhSkWnZq$u*x+A2A2D5H8KbNfQiUlXo#s%v(y0B3F6I9LdOgRjVmYq!t&w-z1C4G7JaMePhTkWnZr$u*x+A2E5H8KcNfQiUlXp#s%v)y0B3F6IaLdOgSjVmYq!t*w-z1D4G7JbMeQhTkWoZr$u(x+B2E5H9KcNfRiUlXp#s&v)y0C3F6IaLdPgSjVnYq!t*w-A1D4G8JbMeQhTlWoZr%u(x+B2E6H9KcOfRiUmXp!s&v)z0C3F7IaMdPgSkVnYq$t*x-A1D5G8JbNeQhTlWo#r%u(y+y+B2E6H9LcOfRjUmXp!s&w)z0C4F7IaMdPhSkVnZq$t*x-A2D5G8KbNeQiTlXo#r%v(y+B3E6I9LcOgRjUmYp!t&w)z1C4F7JaMdPhSkWnZq$u*x-A2D5H8KbNfQiTlXo#s%v(y0B3E6I9LdOgRjVmYp!t&w-z1C4G7JaMePhTkWnZr$u*x+A2E5H8KcNfQiUlXp#s%v)y0B3F6I9LdOgSjVmYq!t&w-z1D4G7JbMePhTkWoZr$u(x+A+A2E5H9KcNfRiUlXp#s&v)y0C3F6IaLdPgSjVnYq!t*w-A1D4G8JbMeQhTlWoZr%u(x+B2E6H9KcOfRiUmXp#s&v)z0C3F7IaLdPgSkVnYq$t*w-A1D5G8JbNeQhTlWo#r%u(y+B2E6H9LcOfRjUmXp!s&w)z0C4F7IaMdPhSkVnZq$t*x-A1D5G8KbNeQiTlWo#r%v(y+B3E6H9LcOgRjUmYp!s&w)z1C4F4F7JaMdPhSkWnZq$u*x-A2D5H8KbNfQiTlXo#s%v(y0B3E6I9LdOgRjVmYp!t&w-z1C4G7JaMePhSkWnZr$u*x+A2D5H8KcNfQiUlXo#s%v)y0B3F6I9LdOgSjVmYq!t&w-z1D4G7JbMePhTkWoZr$u(x+A2E5H9KcNfRiUlXp#s%v)y0C3F6IaLdOgSjVnYq!t*w-z1D4G8JbMeQhTkTkWoZr%u(x+B2E5H9KcOfRiUmXp#s&v)z0C3F7IaLdPgSkVnYq$t*w-A1D5G8JbNeQhTlWo#r%u(y+B2E6H9KcOfRjUmXp!s&v)z0C4F7IaMdPgSkVnZq$t*x-A1D5G8KbNeQiTlWo#r%v(y+B3E6H9LcOgRjUmYp!s&w)z1C4F7JaMdPhSkVnZq$u*x-A2D5G8KbNfNfQiTlXo#r%v(y0B3E6I9LcOgRjVmYp!t&w)z1C4G7JaMePhSkWnZr$u*x+A2D5H8KcNfQiUlXo#s%v)y0B3F6I9LdOgSjVmYq!t&w-z1C4G7JbMePhTkWnZr$u(x+A2E5H8KcNfRiUlXp#s%v)y0C3F6IaLdOgSjVnYq!t*w-z1D4G8JbMeQhTkWoZr%u(x+B2E5H9KcKcOfRiUmXp#s&v)z0C3F7IaLdPgSjVnYq$t*w-A1D4G8JbNeQhTlWoZr%u(y+B2E6H9KcOfRjUmXp!s&v)z0C4F7IaMdPgSkVnZq$t*x-A1D5G8KbNeQiTlWo#r%u(y+B3E6H9LcOfRjUmYp!s&w)z0C4F7JaMdPh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