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BISWorkingPapers
No1084
BigTechcreditand
monetarypolicytransmission:micro-levelevidencefromChina
byYipingHuang,XiangLi,HanQiuandChanghuaYu
MonetaryandEconomicDepartment
March2023
JELclassification:E52;G21;G23.
Keywords:Financialtechnology,banklending,monetarypolicytransmission.
ISSN1020-0959(print)
ISSN1682-7678(online)
BISWorkingPapersarewrittenbymembersoftheMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentoftheBankforInternationalSettlements,andfromtimetotimebyothereconomists,andarepublishedbytheBank.Thepapersareonsubjectsoftopicalinterestandaretechnicalincharacter.TheviewsexpressedinthemarethoseoftheirauthorsandnotnecessarilytheviewsoftheBIS.
ThispublicationisavailableontheBISwebsite().
©BankforInternationalSettlements2023.Allrightsreserved.Briefexcerptsmaybe
reproducedortranslatedprovidedthesourceisstated.
1
BigTechCreditandMonetaryPolicyTransmission:Micro-LevelEvidencefromChina*
YipingHuangtXiangLi主HanQiu§ChanghuaYu闻
Abstract
ThispaperstudiesmonetarypolicytransmissionthroughBigTechandtraditionalbanks.BycomparingbusinessloansmadebyaBigTechbankwiththosemadebytraditionalbanks,itfindsthatBigTechcreditamplifiesmonetarypolicytransmissionmainlythroughtheex-tensivemargin.Specifically,theBigTechbankismorelikelytograntcredittonewborrow-
erscomparedwithconventionalbanksinresponsetoexpansionarymonetarypolicy.The
*Forcomments,discussion,andsuggestions,wethankGeneAmbrocio,GuidoAscari(discussant),ChristophBasten,ChristianeBaumeister,JonathanBenchimol(discussant),SallyChen(discussant),MarcoDiMaggio(discussant),ThomasDrechsel,ZuzanaFung´aˇcov´a,AndreasFuster,LeonardoGambacorta(dis-cussant),EmiliaGarcia-Appendini,AlexandraGutsch,JiayinHu(discussant),YiHuang,BoreumKwak,WeiLi(discussant),ChangMa,AakritiMathur,MrinalMishra,StevenOngena,MelinaPapoutsi,MalteRieth,MatthiasRottner,AlessandroSardone,ChristophSchult,LauraSolanko,IlhyockShim,RubenStaffa,GregorvonSchweinitz,YongjieZhang,andotherscholarsattheChinaFinancialResearchConference;theAsianFAConference;theBankofEnglandworkshoponAdvancedAnalytics:NewMethodsandApplicationsforMacroeconomicPolicy,theCentralBankResearchAssociation2022AnnualMeeting,the9thAnnualConferenceofMITGolubCenterforFinanceandPolicy,BISresearchmeeting,theECBChinaExpertNetworkWorkshop2022;andseminarsattheUniversityofZurich,BankofFinland,andHalleInstituteforEconomicResearch.Anyremainingerrorsareoursalone.
tChinaCenterforEconomicResearch,NationalSchoolofDevelopment,andInstituteofDigitalFinance,PekingUniversity.YiheyuanRoad5,Beijing,100871,China.Workphonenumber:+86106275-4798.Email:
yhuang@
主HalleInstituteforEconomicResearch,Martin-Luther-UniversityHalle-Wittenberg,andInstituteofDigitalFinance,PekingUniversity.KleineMaekerstrasse8,Halle(Saale),06108,Germany.Workphonenumber:+493457753-805.Email:
xiang.li@iwh-halle.de
sBankforInternationalSettlements.78thfloor,TwoInternationalFinanceCentre,8FinanceStreet,Central,HongKong.Workphonenumber:+8522982-7100.Email:
han.qiu@
"ChinaCenterforEconomicResearch,NationalSchoolofDevelopment,andInstituteofDigitalFinance,PekingUniversity.YiheyuanRoad5,Beijing,100871,China.Workphonenumber:+86106275-8935.Email:
changhuayu@
BigTechbank’sadvantagesininformation,monitoring,andriskmanagementarethepo-tentialmechanisms.Inaddition,theusageofBigTechcreditisassociatedwithastrongerresponseoffirms’salesinresponsetomonetarypolicy.
Keywords:FinancialTechnology;BankLending;MonetaryPolicyTransmissionJELCodes:E52;G21;G23
1
1Introduction
Financialtechnology(FinTech)hasbeenamajorphenomenonintherecentdevelopmentoffinancialmarkets.DuringtheCOVID-19crisis,FinTechhasplayedanunprecedentedlyprominentroleinstabilizingandreignitingtheeconomy(
CoreandDeMarco
2021
,
Kwan
etal.
2021
,
BaoandHuang
2021
,
FuandMishra
2021
).Bydefinition,FinTechisabroadconceptthatreferstotheuseoftechnologyinprovidingfinancialservices(
FSB
2019
).Whatmakesitstandoutinthelonghistoryoffinancialinnovationisthatthedisruptionthistimehasbeeninitiatedbyplayersoutsidethefinancialmarketsratherthanwithintheoldsystem.Digitalplatformsformarketplacelendingandcreditissuedbybigtechnologycompanies(BigTech),suchasAntGroup,Amazon,orMercadoLibre,haveposedseriouschallengestothelendingmodeloftraditionalfinancialintermediaries(
Bootetal.
2021
).
Figure
1
showsthatBigTechcredithasovertakencreditissuedbydecentralizedplatformsinrecentyears.BigTechcreditaccountsfor2%-3%ofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)incountrieslikeChinaandKenya.TheseBigTechcreditsareparticularlyimportantformicro,small,andmedium-sizedenterprises(MSMEs),whicharethebackboneofentrepreneurshipandeconomicgrowth.Asoftheyear2018,MSMEsaccountfor99.8%ofestablishments,79.4%ofemployment,and68.2%ofsalesintheChineseeconomy.Armedwithinformation,distribution,andmonitoringtechnologiesbuiltintotheecosystemofBigTechdigitalplat-forms,BigTechlendersareabletoreducerelianceontraditionalcollateralandthuscovermoreborrowersthathavebeenunservedorunderservedbytraditionalfinancialinstitutions(
PetersenandRajan
1994
,
BergerandUdell
1995
,
Cornellietal.
2022
).BigTechcredithasbecomeatopconcernforeconomicpolicymaking(
Carstensetal.
2021
,
Adrian
2021
).Asrecognizedby
Philippon
(
2016
)and
Lagarde
(
2018
),thedisruptionbyFinTechbringsa“bravenewworld”formonetarypolicymakersandrequiresre-evaluationoftheeffectivenessofmonetarypolicytransmissionthroughthesenewlenders.Despitetheburgeoninglitera-
2
tureonFinTech,littleisknownaboutitsimplicationsformonetarypolicytransmission.
1
ThispaperbridgesthisgapbyexploringmonetarypolicytransmissionmechanismsthroughBigTechandconventionalbanks.
Total,USDbn
800
600
400
200
0
2013201420152016201720182019
PlatformCreditBigTechCredit
percapita,USD
150
100
50
0
2013201420152016201720182019
PlatformCreditBigTechCredit
Figure1:GlobalFinTechCredit
Datasource:
Cornellietal.
(
2020
).
WeemployauniquedatasetcoveringthefullborrowinghistoryofsampledMSMEsfromamajorBigTechlenderandtraditionalbanksinChina.WeaccessedcreditdatafromtheAntGroup,oneofthedominantBigTechcompaniesbothdomesticallyandinternationally,andmatchwiththeseMSMEs’borrowinghistoryfromtraditionalbanks.OurdatasetcoversmonthlyobservationsofbothBigTechcreditandbankcredittofirmsfromJanuary2017toDecember2019.Combinedwithvariationsinmonetarypolicy,ourdatasetprovidesanideallaboratoryforinvestigatingmonetarypolicytransmissionmechanismsthroughBigTechlendersandtraditionalbanks.ThefindingsbasedontheevidencefromChinamayshedlightonregulatoryandmonetarypoliciesinothercountriesaswell.
Ouridentificationstrategyfocusesontheextensivemargin,capturedbyanewlending
relationshipbetweenabankandafirm,andtheintensivemargin,capturedbynewlyissued
1See
Allenetal.
(
2021
)forasurveyofFinTechresearchandpolicydiscussion.
3
loanstoafirmthathasalreadyborrowedfromthebank.WeexploretherelativeresponseofBigTechlendingtochangesinmonetarypolicy,comparedwithtraditionalbanklending.Aftercontrollingfirms’demandforcredit,ourestimatescapturetheimpactofmonetarypolicythroughthecreditsupplyofdifferenttypesofbanks.Inaddition,weexaminetherealimpactonfirmsofBigTechcreditrelativetoconventionalbankloansbycomparingsalesgrowthinresponsetochangesinmonetarypolicy.
Themainfindingsofthepaperarethefollowing.WefindthatBigTechloanstendtobesmaller,andBigTechbanksgrantcredittomorenewborrowers,comparedwithconventionalbanks,inresponsetoexpansionarymonetarypolicy.Inotherwords,whenmonetarypolicyeases,BigTechlendersaremorelikelytoestablishnewlendingrelationshipswithfirms,comparedwithtraditionalbanks.BigTechbanks’advantagesininformation,monitoring,andriskmanagementarethepotentialmechanisms.Comparedwithtraditionalbankloans,BigTechlendingamplifiesmonetarypolicytoalargerextentforfirmsthathaveonlinebusinesses,ratherthanfirmsthathaveonlyofflinebusinesses,andwhenBigTechlendingiscomparedwithsecuredbankloans,ratherthanunsecuredbanksloans.However,BigTechandtraditionalbankcreditstofirmsthathavealreadyborrowedfromthesebanksrespondsimilarlytomonetarypolicychanges.Overall,BigTechcreditamplifiesmonetarypolicytransmissionmainlythroughtheextensivemarginrelativetotraditionalbankloans.Inaddition,monetarypolicyhasastrongerimpactontherealeconomythroughBigTechlendingthantraditionalbankloans.
Thisstudyrelatestothreebranchesoftheliterature.First,wecontributetotheliter-atureonmonetarypolicytransmissionbyfocusingonanewplayer,BigTechlenders,andcomparingtheirresponsestomonetarypolicywiththoseoftraditionalbanks.Thebanklendingchannelofmonetarypolicy(
BernankeandBlinder
1988
,
1992
,
KashyapandStein
1995
)dependsoncross-sectionalheterogeneityinvariousdimensions,includingliquidity,size,incomegap,leverage,andmarketpower(
KashyapandStein
2000
,
Brissimisetal.
4
2014
,
Drechsleretal.
2017
,
Gomezetal.
2021
,
Wangetal.
2021
).Therisktoleranceandriskexposureoffinancialintermediationmayamplifymonetarypolicyshocks,asisfoundby
Coimbraetal.
(
2022
)and
DiTellaandKurlat
(
2021
).Heterogeneityinlenders’techno-logicalcharacteristicsisamissinglinkintheliterature.
2
Recently,
Hasanetal.
(
2020
)and
Hasanetal.
(
2022
)examinetheroleofregionalFinTechpenetrationandbanks’in-housetechnologydevelopmentintheeffectivenessofmonetarypolicy.
DeFioreetal.
(
2022
)studyBigTech’sresponsetomonetarypolicybasedoncross-countryannualdataandmodeltheroleofBigTechasfacilitatingmatchingbetweensellersandbuyers.
Zhou
(
2022
)emphasizestheroleofsocialnetworkinhelpingFinTechenhancethetransmissionofmonetarypolicytothemortgagemarket.
ThekeyinnovationofourstudyisthatwefocusonthemonetarytransmissionmechanismthroughBigTechlendingrelativetotraditionalbanklendingbyexploringquasi-loan-leveldatabetweenMSMEsandtwotypesoflenders,BigTechandtraditionalbanks.Theevi-dencethatBigTechlendingamplifiesmonetarypolicyalsoaddstotherecentliteraturethatinvestigatestheroleofnonbanksinmonetarypolicytransmission(e.g.,
Elliottetal.
2019
,
Chenetal.
2018
).
Second,ourstudyisrelatedtotheburgeoningstudiesontherelationshipbetweenFin-Techlendersandbanks.WecontributetotheliteraturebydirectlycomparingthelendingbehaviorsofthesetwotypesoflenderstothesameMSMEborrowersthroughthelensofauniquedataset.Assummarizedin
Stulz
(
2019
),
Bootetal.
(
2021
),
Thakor
(
2020
)and
Bergetal.
(
2022
),therecentwaveoffinancialtechnologiesisnewandhasbroughtanabun-danceofdataandcodificationofsoftinformation.Thesedevelopmentshavestrengthenedscreeningandmonitoring,whichrationalizetheempiricalfindingthatcomparedwithbanks,
FinTechlendersrelymoreonhardinformation.Ontheonehand,manystudiesexamine
2Therearestudiesfocusingonfirms’technologyadoptionanditseffectonmonetarypolicy,buttheyarelimitedtonon-financialfirms.Forinstance,
Consoloetal.
(
2021
)findthatfirms’informationtechnologyinvestmentweakensthecreditchannelofmonetarypolicytransmission,and
FornaroandWolf
(
2021
)studytheimpactofmonetarypolicyonfirms’technologyadoptiondecisions.
5
whetherFinTechlendingsubstitutesfororcomplementsbanklending.Forinstance,usingU.S.mortgagelendingandpersonalcreditdata,
Buchaketal.
(
2018
),
DiMaggioandYao
(
2021
),and
DolsonandJagtiani
(
2021
)showthatFinTechlendersusedifferentinformationtosetinterestratesrelativetobanksandaremorelikelytoservenonprimeconsumers.UsingconsumerlendingdatafromLendingClubandbanksintheUnitedStates,
Jagtiani
andLemieux
(
2018
)and
Hughesetal.
(
2022
)showthatFinTechpenetratesareasthatareunderservedbybanks.
Surietal.
(
2021
)and
ErelandLiebersohn
(
2022
)findthatFinTechcouldimprovefinancialaccessandresilience.
GopalandSchnabl
(
2022
)documentthatFinTechlenderssubstitutedforthereductioninbanklendingtosmallbusinessafterthe2008financialcrisis.
Tang
(
2019
)and
Beaumontetal.
(
2022
)showthatFinTechlendingsubstitutesbanklendingforinfra-marginalbankborrowersbutcomplementsbanklendingwithrespecttosmallloans.
Liuetal.
(
2022
)comparesyndicatedloansbyaBigTechlenderandatraditionalbankinChinaandfindthatBigTechloanstendtobesmaller,havehigherinterestrates,andarerepaidfarbeforematurity.
Buchaketal.
(
2021
)useChinesedatatoshowthatFinTechfacilitatestheinterestrateliberalizationofbanksthroughcompetitionindeposit-likeproducts.Otherrecentstudies,suchas
PierriandTimmer
(
2022
),
Linetal.
(
2021
),
Kwanetal.
(
2021
),
Heetal.
(
2021
),
Hasanetal.
(
2022
),and
Modietal.
(
2022
),focusontechnologyadoptionbybanksandexamineitsimpactonlending.Although
Stulz
(
2019
)highlightsthespecialroleofBigTechcredit,thereislittleevidenceonthedifferenceincorporatelendingbetweenBigTechlendersandbanks,inparticulartheirresponsestomonetarypolicyshocks.Thisstudyfillsthisgapintheliterature.
Third,thispaperalsocontributestotheliteratureonfinancialinnovationandeconomicgrowth,byhighlightingtheimpactofBigTechcreditonfirmperformance.Manystudiesfocusontherealeffectsoftheinnovationsofnon-financialfirms,suchas
Akermanetal.
(
2015
),
Beaudryetal.
(
2010
),and
Autoretal.
(
2003
).Thesestudiesdwarfthoseontech-nologicalinnovationinthefinancialsector,whichmayspureconomicgrowth.Forinstance,
6
Becketal.
(
2016
)showthatbankinginnovationisassociatedwithhighergrowthincountriesandindustrieswithbettergrowthopportunities.
GortonandHe
(
2021
)findthatbankinginnovationcontributestoeconomicgrowthbyallowingbankstoofferlongermaturityloanstotherealsectorwithhigherproductivity.Bycontrast,researchontherealeffectsofFin-TechorBigTechcreditisquitelimited.
Chenetal.
(
2022
),
E¸caetal.
(
2021
),
Ahnertetal.
(
2021
),and
Becketal.
(
2022
)documentthataccesstoFinTechcreditreducessalesvolatil-ity,increasessalesgrowth,andspursfirminvestmentandentrepreneurship.Inthisstudy,weprovidefurtherevidencetoshowthat,comparedwithtraditionalbanklending,BigTechcreditincreasesMSMEs’salesgrowthinresponsetochangesinmonetarypolicy,echoingtherealimpactofmonetarypolicyasin
GertlerandGilchrist
(
1994
).
Therestofthepaperisstructuredasfollows.Section
2
describestheinstitutionalbackgroundofBigTechcreditinChina,thedataconstruction,andthevariablesusedinthepaper.Section
3
illustratestheidentificationstrategiesandreportstheempiricalresults.Section
4
providesfurtherdiscussion.Section
5
concludes.
2DataandVariables
ChinahasgraduallybecomealeadingplayerinBigTechcredit.AccordingtoboththetotalandpercapitaBigTechcreditofthetopsixcountriesfrom2013to2019(seeFigure
A1
intheappendix),China’sBigTechcredithasdominatedothercountriessince2017.Ontheonehand,aidedbyadvantagesininformation,technology,distribution,andmonitoringbuiltintoBigTechplatforms’ecosystems,BigTechcompanieshaveaccesstomillionsofunservedandunderservedcreditusersatverylowcost,particularlyMSMEs.Ontheotherhand,thegovernment’sregulatorytoleranceintheearlystagedevelopmentofFinTechhasplayedanimportantroleinsupportingtherapidexpansionofBigTechcredit(see
Chui
2021
).DoesBigTechcreditsubstitutefororcomplementtraditionalbanklendingtofirmssinceboth
7
typesofcreditprovidersmayfacethesamepoolofpotentialcreditusers?IsBigTechcreditmoreresponsivetofinancialmarketconditions,suchasthemonetarypolicystance,partic-ularlyindevelopingcountrieslikeChina?China’sBigTechcreditdiffersfromthatofothercountriesinmanydimensions.OneimportantdifferenceisthatunlikeintheUnitedStatesandotheradvancedeconomies,BigTechlendinginChinaisdominatedbybusinesslend-ingratherthanmortgagelending.WillBigTechcreditreducefirms’,particularlyMSMEs’,financialconstraintsandboosttheirgrowth?
Toaddressthesequestions,weusedatafromthebiggestBigTechcreditproviderinChina,MYBank.MYBankisownedbytheAntGroup,whichisanaffiliatecompanyoftheAlibabaGroupandoperatesvirtuallywithoutphysicalbranches.Sinceitslaunchin2015,MYBankhasfollowedthesamerulesandpoliciesoftheChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommission(CBIRC)astraditionalbanks.
3
MYBankmainlyserveshouseholdsandMSMEssuchase-commercesellersandQRcodeofflinemerchants.TheAntGroupownstheworld’slargestdigitalpaymentplatform,Alipay,whichiseasytoaccessandusebybothmerchantsandcustomers.Bothe-commercesellersandQRcodeofflinemerchantsleavedigitalfootprintswhentheyuseAlipaytosettleonlineorofflinetransactions.Armedwiththisinformationandanadvancedriskmanagementmodel,MYBankoffersloanswitha“contact-freefeature,”withoutanyvisitstophysicalbankbranches,underaso-called“310”model.Thatis,MYBankpromisesthecompletionofuserregistrationandloanapplicationwithin3minutes,moneytransfertoanAlipayaccountwithin1second,and0humanintervention.MoreinstitutionalbackgroundonMYBankandotherBigTechlendersinChinacanbefoundin
Frostetal.
(
2019
),
Huangetal.
(
2020
),
Hongetal.
(
2020
),
Hauetal.
(
2021
),
Gambacortaetal.
(
2022
),and
Liuetal.
(
2022
).
3TheChinaBankingRegulatoryCommission(CBRC)wastheagencythatregulatedthebankingsectorinChina.InApril2018,itwasmergedwiththeChinaInsuranceRegulatoryCommission(CIRC)toformtheCBIRC.
8
DepositRatio(%)
60
40
20
0
2015201620172018201920202021
MYBankTraditionalBanks
Profitability(%)
1
.5
0
−.5
2015201620172018201920202021
MYBankTraditionalBanks
CapitalAdequacyRatio(%)
20
15
10
5
0
2015201620172018201920202021
MYBankTraditionalBanks
NPLRatio(%)
2
1.5
1
.5
0
2015201620172018201920202021
MYBankTraditionalBanks
Figure2:MainIndicatorsforMYBankandTraditionalBanksSources:AnnualReportofMYBank;CBIRC.
TherearesimilaritiesanddifferencesbetweenMYBankandtraditionalbanks.Both
typesofbanksareregulatedbytheCBIRC,attractdeposits,andlendtocreditusers.Theymayhavedifferentlendingmodels.Traditionalbanksusuallyrequirein-personinteractionandinspectiontoissueloansandthereforetaketimetoapproveloanapplications.MYBankissuesloansveryquicklybyusingvarioussoftandhardinformationfromtheAntGroupanditsparentcompany,theAlibabaGroup.Therepaymentschedulecouldbedifferenttoo.LoansfromMYBankcanberepaidearlywithoutanycost(
Liuetal.
2022
).Figure
2
showsthemainfinancialindicatorsforMYBankandothertraditionalbanksfrom2015to2021,includingthedeposit-to-assetratio,profitabilitycalculatedastheratioofnetincometoassets,capitaladequacycalculatedastheratioofcapitaltorisk-weightedassets,andtheratioofnonperformingloans(NPLs)toassets.Thefigureshowsthataftertheyearofitslaunch,2015,MYBankhastendedtodependlessonexternalfinanceviaattracting
9
deposits,haveaslightlylowercapitaladequacyratiothantraditionalbanksonaverage,buthavelowerprofitabilityandNPLratio.Lowerprofitabilitymaybeassociatedwithhighercompetitioninthecreditmarket,andthelowerNPLratiowouldimplythatMYBankmayhavebetterriskmanagementviaabundantinformationandadvancedtechnologies.
2.1DataConstruction
MYBankservesbothhouseholdsandfirmsinChina.Forourpurpose,wemainlyfocusonMYBank’sentrepreneurialcustomers.WeexplorehowmonetarypolicyaffectscreditexpansionandcontractiondifferentlythroughMYBankandtraditionalbanks.BothonlineandofflineentrepreneurialcustomerssettletransactionsviaAlipayandleavetheirdigitalfootprintsontheecosystemoftheAntGroup.Moreover,thebusinessactivitiesofonlinemerchantsonthedigitalplatformsoperatedbytheAlibabaGroupprovideadditionalin-formationforMYBanktoevaluatetheriskofthesemerchants.MYBank’slendingmodelmightrespondtomonetarypolicyquitedifferentlycomparedwithtraditionalbanks.
DuetoMYBank’sdataregulationpolicy,weobtaineda10%randomsampleofitsfirmcustomersfromJanuary2017toDecember2019.Wedroppedinactivefirmsbythefollowingcriter
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