OECD-Making the most of public investment to address regional inequalities,megatrends and future shocks-report (2022-06-22)（英文）行业资料

Makingthemostofpublicinvestmenttoaddressregionalinequalities,megatrendsandfutureshocks.

OECDRegionalDevelopmentPapers

OECDRegionalDevelopmentPapers

Makingthemostofpublicinvestmentto

addressregionalinequalities,megatrends

andfutureshocks

Publicinvestmentisakeypolicylevertotacklethebigchallengesfacedbysociety–climatechange,demographictrends,digitalisation,andeconomicandothershocks.Investmenthelpstolaythefoundationsforfutureeconomicprosperityandwell-beinginourregionsandcities.Itcanalsohelptoreduceinequalities,adaptplacestomegatrends,enhanceresilienceandmitigatetheimpactofshocksonwellbeing.AsweemergefromtheCOVID-19crisis,andalreadyfaceanewcrisisfollowingRussia’slarge-scaleaggressionagainstUkraine,existingcommitmentsofpublicinvestmenttosupporttherecoveryprovideanimportantopportunitytoaddresscurrentandfuturechallenges.Risingtothisoccasioncallsforeffectivepublicinvestmentbyalllevelsofgovernment.

JELcodes:H54,J11,Q48,Q58,R53,R58

Keywords:Publicinvestment;Regionaldevelopment;Inequalities;Megatrends;Regions;Infrastructure;Multi-levelgovernance

PUBE

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ABOUTTHEOECD

TheOECDisamulti-disciplinaryinter-governmentalorganisationof38membercountries,whichengagesinitsworkanincreasingnumberofnon-membersfromallregionsoftheworld.TheOrganisation’scoremissiontodayistohelpgovernmentsworktogethertowardsastronger,cleaner,fairerglobaleconomy.Throughitsnetworkof250specialisedcommitteesandworkinggroups,theOECDprovidesasetting

wheregovernmentscomparepolicyexperiences,seekanswerstocommonproblems,identifygood

practice,andco-ordinatedomesticandinternationalpolicies.Moreinformationavailable:

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ABOUTOECDREGIONALDEVELOPMENTPAPERS

PapersfromtheCentreforEntrepreneurship,SMEs,RegionsandCitiesoftheOECDcoverafullrangeoftopicsincludingregionalstatisticsandanalysis,urbangovernanceandeconomics,ruralgovernanceandeconomics,andmulti-levelgovernance.Dependingontheprogrammeofwork,thepaperscancoverspecifictopicssuchasregionalinnovationandnetworks,sustainabledevelopment,thedeterminantsof

regionalgrowthorfiscalconsolidationatthesubnationallevel.OECDRegionalDevelopmentPapersare

publishedon

/cfe/regional-policy

.

ThispaperispublishedundertheresponsibilityoftheSecretary-GeneraloftheOECD.TheopinionsexpressedandtheargumentsemployedhereindonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficialviewsofOECDmembercountries.

ThispaperwasauthorisedforpublicationbyLamiaKamal-Chaoui,Director,CentreforEntrepreneurship,SMEs,RegionsandCities,OECD.

Thisdocument,aswellasanystatisticaldataandmapincludedherein,arewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityoftherelevantIsraeliauthorities.TheuseofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraelisettlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw.

©OECD2022

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Acknowledgements

ThispolicypaperwasproducedbytheOECDCentreforEntrepreneurship,SMEs,RegionsandCities(CFE),ledbyLamiaKamal-Chaoui,Director,aspartoftheprogrammeofwork2021-2022oftheRegionalDevelopmentPolicyCommittee(RDPC).ItwasdevelopedtosupportanInformalMeetingofMinistersResponsibleforCohesionPolicyon1March2022organisedinthecontextoftheFrenchPresidencyoftheCounciloftheEuropeanUnion.ThereportwasalsocirculatedtotheRDPCforcommentsandtheSecretariatwouldliketothankRDPCDelegatesforvaluablecommentsreceivedduringthe46thsessionoftheRDPCon12May2022.

ThepaperwasledbyDorothéeAllain-Dupré,HeadoftheRegionalDevelopmentandMulti-levelGovernance(CFE/RDG)andJoseEnriqueGarcilazo,DeputyHeadofRDG,bothinCFE.ItwascoordinatedbyCourtenayWheeler,PolicyAnalystinRDG,CFE.AllsectionsofthereportbenefitedfromcommentandreviewfromNadimAhmad,DeputyDirector,CFE.Section1wasdraftedbyJoseEnriqueGarcilazo,CourtenayWheelerandMichaelFlood.Section2wasdraftedbyJoseEnriqueGarcilazo,MichaelFlood,MichelleMarshalian,PhilipChan,CourtenayWheeler,ClaireCharbit,AndresFuentes,Soo-JinKimandMariaVariniaMichalun.Section3wasdraftedbyIsidoraZapata,IsabelleChatry,AnttiMoisioandCourtenayWheeler.Section1benefitedfromextensiveinput,reviewandcommentfromNigelPainandGeoffBarnardfromtheOECDEconomicsDepartment.RudigerAhrend,HeadoftheEconomicAnalysis,DataandStatisticsDivisioninCFE,alsoprovidedvaluablecommentsonthereport.

SpecialthanksgotoPhilippeCichowlaz,HeadoftheCohesionPolicyDivision,andMarie-LorraineDangeard,SeniorExpert,EuropeanCohesionPolicyDivision,fromtheAgenceNationaledelaCohésiondesTerritoires(ANCT)fortheirguidanceandfeedbackonthispaper.ThanksareextendedtoLucFaraldi,CoordinateurPolitiqueInternationale(ANCT)anddelegateofFranceattheRDPC.ThanksarealsoduetoNikkiTrutterandPilarPhilipfromtheOECDwhohelpedtopreparethecoverandfinalpublication.

Moreinformation:

Dorothee.ALLAIN-DUPRE@

JoseEnrique.GARCILAZO@

Courtenay.WHEELER@

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Executivesummary

Publicinvestmentisakeypolicylevertotacklethebigchallenges–climatechange,demographictrends,digitalisation,andeconomicandothershocks–facedbysociety.Investmenthelpsbuildthefoundationsforfutureeconomicprosperityandwell-beingincitiesandregions.Itcanalsohelptoreduceinequalities,adaptplacestomegatrends,enhanceresilienceandmitigatetheimpactofshocks.AsweemergefromtheCOVID-19crisis,andalreadyfaceanewcrisisfollowingRussia’slargescaleaggressionagainstUkraine,theexistingcommitmentsofpublicinvestmenttosupportastrongrecoveryfromtheCOVID-19crisisprovideanimportantopportunitytoaddressthesechallenges.Risingtothisoccasioncallsforeffectivepublicinvestmentbyalllevelsofgovernment.

Themacroforcesshapingpublicinvestment

TheworldissettopayaheftypriceforRussia’swaragainstUkraine.PriortothewarinUkraine,theOECD’sNovember2021EconomicOutlookprojectedtheglobaleconomytoexpandby4.5%in2022,beforemoderatingto3.2%in2023(OECD,2021[1]).Downsiderisksflaggedatthetimeincludedpotentialinflationarypressuresanddisruptionsinglobalsupplychains,aswellastherisksofanimbalancedrecoveryacrossandwithincountries,sectors,firmsanddemographicgroups.Russia’slargescaleaggressionagainstUkrainehasexacerbatedthesechallengesandcreatednewones.TheJune2022EconomicOutlookreviseddownforecastglobaleconomicgrowthto3%in2022and2.75%in2023(OECD,2022[2]).ItalsoforecastthatinflationintheOECDregionin2022willbealmost9%.Thenewcrisishasheightenedawarenessofvulnerabilitiesinenergysecurityandotherareas.Governmentsatalllevelshadalreadybeenplanningsignificantpublicinvestmenttohelpsupporttheeconomicrecovery.Theon-goingcrisisinUkrainemayseeamodificationofthoseplans.Inparticular,itincreasesfocusontheprioritisationofpublicinvestment,includingonthegreentransition,tobolsterenergysecurityandhelpmeetclimateobjectives,andondefence(OECD,2022[2]).

Currentpublicinvestmentshouldalignwithnetzeroobjectivesandthereshouldbeastrongerfocusoninvestmentprioritisation.Althoughsignificantspendingisbeingundertakentoaddresslong-termclimateobjectives,morecanbedone.Forexample,greenmeasuresonlyrepresented21%ofglobalrecoveryspendingasofJuly2021,andmanyrecoverymeasureshaveanegativeenvironmentalimpact(OECD,2021[3]).Rapiddecarbonisationoftheeconomywillberequiredby2050toachievethe2°CtargetintheParisAgreementtoavertcatastrophicclimatechange,whichrequiresalignmentofcurrentpublicinvestmentstothenetzeroobjective.Publicandprivateinvestmentinrenewableenergy,aswellasbroadereffortstoimproveenergyefficiency,alsohavethepotentialtoincreaseenergysecurity.

Overthelong-term,publicinvestmentwillbeshapedbydigitalisation,thenewglobalenvironment,demographictrendsandclimatechange.Digitalisationisbeginningtochangethewaypeopleandfirmswork,andthisislikelytoaccelerate,demandingnewskillsandinfrastructure.Globalsupplychainsarealsobeginningtoreconfigure,drivenbyincreasedawarenessofresilience.Demographictrends–inparticularageingpopulationsinmanyOECDcountries–couldstrainpublicfinances.Climatechangeanditseffectscreateaneedtoincreasetheresilienceofinfrastructureandadoptnetzerotechnologies.

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Investmentisneededacrossallthesefrontsnotjusttotacklefuturechallenges,butalsotoseizeopportunities.

Thedifferentiatedpublicinvestmentchallengeswithincountries

Megatrendsandshockscreatedifferentpublicinvestmentneeds,challengesandopportunitiesacrossregionswithincountries.ReachingtheobjectivesoftheParisAgreementwillrequiretailoringactionsandinvestmentstotheneedsandrealitiesofdifferentlocalitiesandregionsasmitigationandadaptationchallengesandopportunitiesdiffersharplyacrossplaces.Demographicchange,particularlypopulationageingandshrinking,willespeciallyaffectremoteandruralregionsacrosstheOECD,butover50%ofOECDregionswillseepopulationdeclineby2050(OECD,2019[4]).Digitaldividesareemergingacrossregions,limitingaccesstotheadvantagesfromthedigitaltransition,entrenchingandexacerbatingdividesasthepaceofdigitalisationaccelerates.Downloadspeedsoverfixednetworksinruralareas,forexample,areonaverage31percentagepointsbelowthenationalaverage,whiledownloadspeedsincitiesare21percentagepointsabove(OECD,2021[5]).Finally,regionsdiffertothedegreetheyareembeddedinglobalvaluechainsandmigrationpatterns,leavingsometerritoriesmorepronetotheimpactfromglobalshocks(e.g.COVIDsupplychainbottlenecks,thewarinUkraine)thanothers,whichdemandsarethinkoftheirregionalstrategies.Forexample,massivenumbersofdisplacedpersonsfromUkrainearealreadyconcentratinginsomeregionsborderingUkraine,requiringstrongsupportfromlocalandregionalgovernments.

TheimpactofCOVID-19hasnotbeenequalacrossregionswithincountries.Onaverage,acrossOECDcountries,theregionwiththehighestexcessmortalityhada17-percentagepointhigherrateofdeathsthantheleastaffectedregionwithinthesamecountry(OECD,2021[6]).Furthermore,inthesecondquarterof2021,unemploymentwashigherthanpre-COVID-19levelsinmorethan80%ofOECDregions,withsignificantdifferencesobservedwithincountries.Thismayhaveworkedtoincreasealreadylargeandpersistentspatialinequalities,whicharetypicallylargerwithinthanacrossOECDcountries.Theincomegapamongmetropolitanandnon-metropolitanregions,forexample,hassteadilyincreasedsincethe2008financialcrisis.In2019,GDPpercapitainnon-metroareaswasequivalenttoGDPpercapitainmetropolitanregionstwodecadesago.Addressingexistinginvestmentgapswillprovecriticalinaddressinginequalities,butsotoowillforward-lookingplace-basedinvestmentstrategies.

Actingonasymmetriesnowmaypreventhighercostsandriskslater.Territorialinequalitiesposelong-termrisksforsocialcohesion,andtheseinequalitiescoulddeepenfrommegatrendsandfutureeconomicshocks.Sustainedandincreasinglevelsofterritorialinequalitiesmayevenbringinstabilitytodemocraticsystems.Thecoststoaddresseconomicinequality,climatechangeandthedigitaltransitionareparticularlyconcentratedinsomeplaces.Notaddressingthesechallengesnowislikelytoleadtosignificantlyhigherremedialcostsinthefuture.Strategicforesightcanhelptobetteranticipateandadapttopotentialandemergingchallenges,future-proofingpublicinvestmentinthenewglobalenvironment.

Makingthemostofpublicinvestmentacrosslevelsofgovernment

Qualitypublicinvestmentrequireseffectivemulti-levelgovernance.Publicinvestmentisasharedcompetenceamonglevelsofgovernment,withsubnationalgovernmentsresponsiblefor55%ofpublicinvestmentinOECDcountriesin2020.Yet,thebenefitsthatarisefrompublicinvestmentdependsonhowdifferentlevelsofgovernmentmanageandcoordinatethissharedcompetence.Goodgovernance,includingeffectivecoordinationacrossandamonglevelsofgovernment,cansupporteffectivepublicinvestmenttoaddresspressingeconomic,environmentalandsocietalchallenges.

Thereareanumberofkeysuccessfactorstosupporteffectivepublicinvestmentamonglevelsofgovernment.Deliveringeffectivepublicinvestmentisnoteasy.Itrequiresunderstandingtheinvestmentneedsofmanystakeholdersandaligninginvestmentplanninganddelivery.BuildingontheOECD

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RecommendationonEffectivePublicInvestmentacrossLevelsofGovernment(OECD,2014[7]),anumberofkeysuccessfactorsforeffectivelong-termpublicinvestmentemerge:

.Establishingstrongandfruitfulpartnershipsamonglevelsofgovernment;

.Effectivecollaborationbetweenregionsandcitiestosupportinvestmentattherightscale;

.Ensuringthatgovernmentsatalllevelshaveadequatecapacities;

.Makinguseofinnovativemechanismstofundandfinancepublicinvestment;and

.Strengtheningpublic-privatecollaborationandengagingcitizensstakeholdersintheinvestmentcycle,tobuildtrustamongstdifferentstakeholders.

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Tableofcontents

1Themacroforcesshapingthefutureofpublicinvestment9

Publicinvestmentforlongtermprosperityandwellbeing9

Anunevenglobaleconomicrecovery10

Themegatrendsreshapingpublicfinanceandinvestmentneeds14

Long-termimplicationsforpublicfinanceandinvestment18

2Thedifferentiatedpublicinvestmentchallengeswithincountries24

Understandingasymmetrieswithincountries24

Theterritorialdimensionsofeconomicinequality25

Theasymmetricimpactofmegatrendswithincountries29

TheasymmetricimpactoftheCOVID-19crisisonregions35

Thecostsofinactiononmegatrendsandregionalinequality39

3Makingthemostofpublicinvestmentacrosslevelsofgovernment42

Qualitypublicinvestmenttoachievelong-termpriorities42

Publicinvestmentprioritiesforamoresustainableandequitablefuture44

Qualitypublicinvestmentacrosslevelsofgovernment47

Keysuccessfactorsforqualitypublicinvestmentacrosslevelsofgovernment53

FIGURES

Figure1.Thelabourmarketrecoverywasonlypartialinmostcountries12

Figure2.Indicatorsoffiscalandexternalvulnerabilitiesinemerging-marketeconomies14

Figure3.Populationageing,1980-205016

Figure4.Smallfirmsarethreetimeslesslikelythanlargefirmstoadoptcloudcomputingservices17

Figure5.FiscalpressureswillcontinuetoclimbaspopulationsageacrosstheOECD20

Figure6.GovernmentinvestmentasapercentageofGDP,2007,2019and202020

Figure7.Inequalitybetweenandwithincountries,2000-2019inlargeregions26

Figure8.Regionalinequalitiesincreasedafterthe2008crisisinmostOECDcountries,2000-201927

Figure9.RealGDPpercapitagapbetweenmetroandnon-metroregionshasincreasedoverthe2000-2019

period28

Figure10.Theglobalcrisisbroughtconvergenceinremoteandnon-metrosmallregionstoahalt28

Figure11.By2070someregionsmaybecomevirtuallyinhabitableandsomemoresuitableforlife29

Figure12.Within-countryvariationsinpercapitaGHGemissionsarelargerthandifferencesbetween

countries30

Figure13.Gapsindownloadspeedsexperiencedbyusersbydegreeofurbanisation32

Figure14.Populationdeclineisaffectingmanyregionsandwillaffectmoreinthenext30years33

Figure15.ChangeintotalunemploymentduringtheCOVID-19crisisacrossregionswithincountries36

Figure16.Confidenceinthenationalgovernment,average2014-201840

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Figure17.Changesinpublicinvestmentbetween2000and2020intheEUandselectedOECDcountries44

Figure18.Mostresponsibilitiesaresharedbetweenthenationalandsubnationalgovernments49

Figure19.Subnationalgovernmentsarekeypublicinvestors50

TABLES

Table1.Globalgrowthisprojectedtobesubdued11

Table2.Possibleimplicationsofmegatrendsonpublicfinanceandinvestment22

Table3.Scenariosofsettlementpatternsdistributiononthepost-COVID-19world.38

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Themacroforcesshapingthefutureofpublicinvestment

Publicinvestmentforlongtermprosperityandwellbeing

Thefutureofglobalpublicinvestmentisbeingshapedbyshort-andlong-termforcesthatneedtobeunderstoodtoinordertoensurecurrentinvestmentdecisionsachievelong-termpolicyobjectives.Overtheshort-term,publicinvestmentwillbeshapedbythestrengthandstructureoftheeconomicrecoveryandtherelatedgovernmentresponses,whichhavesofarincludedsomeofthelargestpublicinvestmentpackagessincetheSecondWorldWar.ItwillalsobeshapedbythewarinUkraine,whichalreadyhassignificantimplicationsforeconomies,energyinvestments,securityandmigration.Overthelonger-term,demographicchange,climatechangeanddigitalisationwillincreasinglydriveinvestmentneedsandimpactpublicfinances.Thissectionofthereportprovidesanoverviewofthecurrentstateoftheglobaleconomyandhighlightsmajormegatrends.Itthendescribessomeofthepossiblemacro-levelimplicationsforpublicfinancesandpublicinvestment.

Keymessages

Anuneveneconomicrecovery

.PriortothewarinUkraine,theglobaleconomyhadbeenexpectedtogrowby4.5%in2022beforeeasingto3.2%in2023,withunevenpathwaysacrossandwithincountries,sectors,firmsanddemographicgroups.

.TheJune2022EconomicOutlookreviseddownforecastglobaleconomicgrowthto3%in2022and2.75%in2023(OECD,2022[2]).IthasforecastthatinflationintheOECDwillbealmost9%in2022.

.Uncertaintyanddownsiderisks,suchasinflationandsupply-chainrisk,havebeenexacerbatedbythewarinUkraine.

Themegatrendsshapingfuturepublicinvestmentneedsandpublicfinances

.Rapiddecarbonisationoftheeconomywillberequiredby2050toachievethe2°CtargetagreedattheParisclimateconferencetoavertcatastrophicclimatechange,whichimpliessignificantnetzeroinvestments,butglobalwarmingisnowinevitableandsignificantinvestmentsinmitigationmeasuresagainstanincreaseinextremeweathereventswillalsoberequired.

.Demographicchange,inparticularpopulationageinginmanyOECDcountries,couldstrainpublicfinances,changeconsumptionpatterns,andrequiredifferenttypesofpublicinvestment.

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.Digitaltechnologies,includinginformationandcommunicationstechnology,automation,artificialintelligenceandrobotics,haveimmenseeconomicpotentialandareprofoundlychangingthewaypeopleandfirmswork,andtheskillsandinfrastructurerequiredtosucceedinthefuture.

Implicationsforpublicfinanceandpublicinvestment

.Publicrevenuesandexpenditureswillbeunderpressureinmanycountriesoverthecomingyearsduetoageingpopulations,althoughneweconomicopportunitiesmayarisefromdigitalisationandthenetzerotransitionthatcouldsupportpublicfinances.

.Publicinvestmentovertheshortandmediumtermneedstobecarefullyprioritisedandalignedwithlonger-termobjectivesandrisks,includingsupportingthedigitalshiftandincreasingcybersecurity,increasingenergysecurity,adjustingtodemographicchangesandsupportingthegreentransition.

.Publicdebt-to-GDPratiosrosesharplyduringthecrisis,butfiscalbalancesarebeginningtoimprove.InthewakeoftheCOVID-19crisis,publicfinancialmanagementmayincreasinglyfocusonthecompositionofpublicfinances,whilesupportinglong-termsustainablegrowthandensuringmedium-termdebtsustainability.

Anunevenglobaleconomicrecovery

TheworldissettopayaheftypriceforRussia’swaragainstUkraine(OECD,2022[2]).ThewarinUkrainehasgeneratedamajorhumanitariancrisisaffectingmillionsofpeople.Theassociatedeconomicshocks,andtheirimpactonglobalcommodity,tradeandfinancialmarkets,willalsohaveamaterialimpactoneconomicoutcomesandlivelihoods.PriortotheRussia’slarge-scaleaggressionagainstUkraine,theOECD’sNovemberEconomicOutlook(2021[1])projectedglobalGDPgrowthof4.5%in2022,moderating

to3.2%in2023.However,outlookdifferedacrossandwithincountries,sectors,firms,anddemographicgroups

(Table1)

.TheOECD’smostrecentJune2022EconomicOutlookhasreviseddowntheforecast

forglobaleconomicgrowthto3%in2022and2.75%in2023(2022[2]).IthasalsoforecastthatinflationintheOECDwillbealmost9%in2022.

Monetaryandfiscalpolicieswerecriticalinbufferingeconomiesandsocietiesfromtheworstimpactsofthecrisis.Macroeconomicpolicysupportisnowbeingwithdrawninmanyeconomiesasoutputgapscloseandinresponsetostronger-than-expectedinflation.Globally,theele