交易员分析员培训资料系列历史数据和分析4

Goodisgood,butbettercarriesit.

精益求精，善益求善。Goodisgood,butbettercarriesit.

精益求精，善益求善。交易员分析员培训资料系列历史数据和分析4November2008November2008PAGEPAGE53November2008PAGENovember2008November24,200820081124:LookingSouthandLookingEastLookingSouth:EngermanandSokoloff:WhatHasHappenedintheNewWorld?Fourareas:U.S.-CanadaMexico-BrazilCaribbean+slaveBrazilSouthernconeU.S.-Canadaveryrich:restnotso.Why?$80KperworkerperyearintheU.S.$10K-$20KmorecommoninLatinAmerica..Allhave(orhad)favorableland-laborratiosafterconquestandplagues...Allhadabundantnaturalresources...All"began"withanabundanceoflandrelativetolabor...SouthernconekeepingupwithNorthAmericauntilthe1930s--Iwillnotdealwiththattoday...Twolinesofexplanation:problemsofslaveryandex-slavery;problemsofmainlandLatinAmericaThePuzzle:WeExplainUnitedStatesGrowthasMarkets+Resources=Accumulation+TechnologyButwhathappenswhenwegotoLatinAmerica?Fromtheperspectiveof1700,theUnitedStatesisamarginalnew-worldeconomicareaYetLatinAmericatodaylagsfarbehindtheUnitedStatesandCanadaToexplainU.S.vs.LatinAmerica,youneed"institutions"Whatareinstitutions?Wheredoinstitutionscomefrom?ThreeTheoriesofInstitutions:"Legalorigins"(Shleiferetal.)"Tropicaldiseasesandgrabandrun"(Acemogluetal.)EngermanandSokoloffAhistorians'story--whichmeans,"it'scomplicated"Legaloriginsisbroadlywrong--oratleastoveremphasizedGrab-and-runduetotropicaldiseasesalsogreatlyoveremphasizedFactorendowmentsIndigenouspopulationoppressionResourcecurse--slaverySlaveryintheConnecticutRivervalleySlaveryinNewYorkCityKeyparagraph:"TheBritishcoloniesintheNewWorldevolvequitedistinctsocietiesandsetsofinstitutionsThemajoritythatfailedsharedcertainsalientfeatureswithLatinAmerica[Thesefeatures]allowedforaveragestandardsoflivingthatwerehighatthattime...[but]lesswellsuitedfortherealizationofsustainedeconomicgrowth...""Non-white"aproxyforsavageeconomic(andpolitical!)inequalityEuropeanmigrantstandardsofliving2xormorethoseinEuropethroughoutthecolonialperiod--$1000oftoday'sdollarspercapitaperyearEuropeanstandardsofliving4xthoseinEuropeinslave-staple-haciendacolonies--$2000oftoday'sdollarspercapitaperyearStaplecrops:sugar,coffee,rice,tobacco,cottoneasilyproducedbyslavelaborintheCaribbeanandBrazil.Haiti3xasrichasUnitedStatesin1790?ExtensiveindigenouspopulationsinMexicoandPeruLessthan20%ofMexican,Peruvianpopulation"white"asof1800EconomicandpoliticalequalityaverygoodthingLandpolicyImmigrationpolicy(Mercantilist)tradepolicyMiddle-classdemandformanufactures:"Americansystem"TimingofindustrializationEducationOtherhumancapital:familiaritywithtechnologyormarketsLookingEast:Alesinaetal.:Postedat02:28PMinLectureNotes|Permalink|Comments(0)|TrackBack(0)November19,200820081119:Post-WWIIStabilizationPolicyPostedat12:48PMinLectureNotes|Permalink|Comments(0)November17,2008Economics113Syllabus:Fall2008Economics113:AmericanEconomicHistoryThisFile:/43sufu;/american_economic_history/2008/08/economics-113-s.htmlJ.BradfordDeLongdelong@Evans601:Lecture:4LeConte;MW4-5:30AndrejMilivojevicandrej@:Sections:T4-587Dwinelle,W8-961Evans

MarcGersenmgersen@:Sections:F2-355Evans,F3-455Evans

MatthewSargentsargent@:Sections:M9-1085Evans,Th1-245EvansForthoseunfamiliarwithU.S.history,MartyOlneyrecommendsJohnFaragheretal(2005),OutofMany(NewYork:Prentice-Hall)WAug27:OVERVIEWLectureNotes:AdministrationandOverview;WhyAreWeHere?OntheLectureandtheUniversity;LectureAudio:/2008_mov/20080827.mp3RequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"TheAmericanEconomyinHistoricalPerspective";SixFamiliesBudgetTheirMoney,1884SectionsAug28-Sep3:Welcome,supplyanddemand(onepageintroductiondue)WSep3:Amerindians,Conquistadores,Explorers,Settlers,andEmpiresLectureNotes:10000BCto1800;Pre-IndustrialGrowthAccountingLectureAudio:/2008_mov/20080903.mp3RequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"FoundingtheColonies;BartholomewGosnoldSailsAlongNortheasternNorthAmerica,1602:;JaredDiamond(1987),"TheWorstMistakeintheHistoryoftheHumanRace,"Discover;JaredDiamond(2008),"WhyDidHumanHistoryUnfoldDifferentlyOnDifferentContinentsForTheLast13,000Years?"MalthusianEconomyProblemSet(dueSeptember10):/american_economic_history/2008/09/20080903-malthu.htmlSectionsSep4-10:BasicgeographyMSep8:Colonists,1600-1776LectureNotes:"GrowthAccounting,NaturalResources,andPre-CivilWarAmerica";NotesforSeptember8LectureAudio:/2008_mov/20080908.m4aRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"ColonialEconomicActivities,""EconomicProgressandWealth";InventoryofthePossessionsofThomasSpringer,1804;PeterTemin(1966),“LaborScarcityandtheProblemofAmericanIndustrialEfficiencyinthe1850's”;"IWoveTo-day":ElizabethFullerGrowsUpinRuralMassachusettsWSep10:Westward,Ho!LectureNotes:NotesforSeptember10;RequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"LandandtheEarlyWesternMovements,""Agriculture'sWesternAdvance";"WeAreNotEntirelyOutofCivilization"WSep10:MalthusianeconomyproblemsetdueSectionsSep11-17:Whobenefitedfromslavery?Reading:WhoBenefitedMostfromNorthAmericanSlavery?MSep15:SlaveryandItsLegacy,1600-1929LectureNotes:/american_economic_history/2008/09/20080915-econ-1.htmlRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"TheEntrenchmentofSlaveryandRegionalConflict,""War,Recovery,andRegionalDivergence";ClaudiaD.GoldinandFrankD.Lewis(1975),"TheEconomicCostoftheAmericanCivilWar:EstimatesandImplications,"JournalofEconomicHistory,Vol.35,No.2.(Jun.,1975),pp.299-326;"IsItNotEnoughthatWeAreTornFromOurCountryandFriends?":OlaudahEquianoDescribestheHorrorsoftheMiddlePassage,1780s;AdditionalReading(necessarybackgroundforproblemset2)WSep17:Government,1600-1870LectureNotes:RequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"EnglishMercantilismandtheColonies,"TheConstitution,""Publicvs.PrivateInitiativeontheNaturalWaterways,""TheCanalEra,""TheIronHorse,"TheFirstBankoftheUnitedStates,""TheSecondBankoftheUnitedStates,""ExperimentsinStateBankingControls,"ProtectionfromForeignCompetition";JohnR.Nelson,Jr.(1979),"AlexanderHamiltonandAmericanManufacturing:AReexamination";NathanielHawthorneTravelstheErieCanalSectionsSep18-24:ReviewMSep22:ReviewMockMidtermMSep22:SlaverybenefitproblemsetdueatlectureWSep24:MIDTERM1MSep29:FinancialCrisisTeachinWOct1:Technologies,Factories,andTrade,1870-1929LectureNotes:GrowthAccounting,1865-1929:TheGreatTraverseRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"IndustrialExpansionandConcentration";ClaudiaGoldinandLawrenceKatz(1999)“HumanCapitalandSocialCapital:TheRiseofSecondarySchoolinginAmerica,1910-1940,”JournalofInterdisciplinaryHistory](/papers/W6439);J.BradfordDeLong,“DidJ.P.Morgan’sMenAddValue?”;AndrewCarnegie'sOdetoSteelmaking;AMuleSpinnerTalksAboutUnemploymentMOct6:Workers,Unions,andGovernment,1870-1929LectureNotes:RequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"TheEmergenceofAmerica'sLaborConsciousness,""RailroadsandEconomicChange";MarkTwainLampoonstheHoratioAlgerMyth;TheAFLProtestsUnemployment;LincolnSteffens:TheShameoftheCitiesMOct6:1865-1929GrowthAccountingProblemSetdueWOct8:DepressionsandPanics,1840-1933LectureNotes:TheComingoftheGreatDepressionAudio:TheComingoftheGreatDepressionRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"IndustrialExpansionandConcentration,"Money,Prices,andFinanceinthePost-BellumEra,""TheGreatDepression";EugeneWhite(1990),“TheStockMarketBoomandtheCrashof1929,”JournalofEconomicPerspectives4:2(Spring),pp.67-83;MarthaL.Olney(1999),“AvoidingDefault:TheRoleofCreditintheConsumptionCollapseof1930.”QuarterlyJournalofEconomicsCXIV(February1999):319-335.ChristinaRomer(1993)“TheNationinDepression.”JournalofEconomicPerspectives7(Spring1993):19-39MOct13:GreatDepression,continuedLectureNotes:TheGreatDepressionAudioWOct15:TheNewDeal,1933-1941LectureNotes:20081013GreatDepression;AudioRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"TheNewDeal";MargaretWeirandThedaSkocpol,"StateStructuresandSocialKeynesianism"WOct15:SimpleMacroeconomicsproblemsetdueSectionsOct9-15:KeynesandBernankeMOct20:TheNewDeal,ContinuedLectureNotes:TheGoldStandardintheTwentiethCenturyAudioMissingWOct22:WorldWarIIandColdWar,1941-1956LectureNotes:TheGlobalEconomy;AudioRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"WorldWarII";MOct27:MassProduction,1910-1980LectureNotes:;AudioRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"CommerceatHomeandAbroad,"Manufacturing,Marketing,andIndustrialProductivity";W.Devine(1983),“FromShaftstoWires:HistoricalPerspectiveonElectrification,”JournalofEconomicHistorypp.347-72;J.BradfordDeLongandBarryEichengreen(1993),“TheMarshallPlan:History’sMostSuccessfulStructuralAdjustmentProgram”;KissingRudyValentinoSectionsOct16-22:MarshallPlanandEuropeanreconstructionWOct29:Workers,Unions,andWageCompression,1929-1975LectureNotes:AmericanIncomeInequality;AudioRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"TheRiseoftheServiceSector,""Unions";ClaudiaGoldinandRobertA.Margo(1992),“TheGreatCompression”SectionsOct23-29:FeminismMNov3:FocusonWomen,1870-presentLectureNotes:RequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"TheChangingRoleofWomenintheLaborForce";GavinWright(1991),“UnderstandingtheGenderGap:AReviewArticle,”JournalofEconomicLiterature:1153-63;SueBowdenandAvnerOffer(1994),“HouseholdAppliancesandtheUseofTime”EconomicHistoryReview47:725-748;ClaudiaGoldin(2004)"TheLongRoadtotheFastTrack"NBERWP10331;FrancesWillardDiscoverstheBicycleMNov3:PracticeSecondMidtermOut:/dl20081103SectionsOct30-Nov5:IntergenerationalinequalityWNov5:FocusonAfrican-Americans,1900-presentLectureNotes:AudioRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"Minorities";J.SmithandFinisWelch(1989),"BlackEconomicProgressafterMyrdal,"JEL(June),pp.519-40,557-61;WernerTroesken,“Race,Disease,andtheProvisionofWaterinAmericanCities,1889-1921,”JournalofEconomicHistory61(September2001):750-776SectionsNov6-12:ReviewMNov10:ReviewWNov12:MIDTERM2MNov17:FocusonImmigrants,1870-presentLectureNotes:ImmigrationAudioRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"Immigration,Politics,andEconomicEffects,""TheNewImmigration";NormanAsing:WeAreNottheDegradedRaceYouWouldMakeUsWNov19:Stabilization,FullEmployment,andInflation,1950-presentLectureNotes:StabilizationPolicy:/dl20081119AudioRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"Money,Banking,andtheBusinessCycleAfterWorldWarII";J.BradfordDeLong(1996),“Keynesianism,PennsylvaniaAvenueStyle:SomeEconomicConsequencesoftheEmploymentActof1946,”JournalofEconomicPerspectives,1996,vol.10,issue3,pages41-53SectionsNov13-19:AlesinaandtheU.S.-WesternEuropecomparisonRequiredReadings:AlbertoAlesina,EdwardGlaeser,andBruceSacerdote(2001),“WhyDoesn’ttheU.S.HaveaEuropean-StyleWelfareSystem?”WNov19:Familyimmigrationstory500wordpaperdueMNov24:Comparisons:LookingEastandLookingSouth:WhyHasThereBeensoLittleSocialDemocracyintheUnitedStates?WhyHasAmericaBeensoSuccessful?LectureNotes:AudioRequiredReadings:EmmaGoldman:"IWillKillFrick";StanleyEngermanandKennethSokoloff(1994),"FactorEndowments:Institutions,andDifferentialPathsofGrowthAmongNewWorldEconomies"MDec1:TheEndoftheAmericanDream?TheProductivitySlowdown,theInflationofthe1970s,andtheGreatWideningLectureNotes:TheInflationofthe1970sRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"RealWages";J.BradfordDeLong,"America'sOnlyPeacetimeInflation:The1970s";ThomasPikettyandEmmanuelSaez(2003),"IncomeInequalityintheUnitedStates"WDec3:TheProductivitySpeedupofthe1990sLectureNotes:AudioRequiredReadings:WaltonandRockoff,"AchivementsofthePast,ChallengesfortheFuture";PaulDavid(1990),“TheDynamoandtheComputer:AnHistoricalPerspectiveontheModernProductivityParadox,”AmericanEconomicReview,pp.355-60;BlinderandYellen,TheFabulousDecadeMDec8:TheCrisisofSocialInsurance:PensionsandDoctorsLectureNotes:RequiredReadings:RonaldLeeandJonathanSkinner(1999),“WillAgingBabyBoomersBusttheFederalBudget?”JournalofEconomicPerspectives13(Winter1999):117-140;DavidCutler(2002),“HealthCareandthePublicSector”SectionsDec4-10:NeweconomymodelsMDec15:Resources,Suburbs,GlobalWarming:Limits?FinalReview:ReviewLecture:Evans10MondayDecember154-6PMRequiredReadings:NicholasSternetal.,"TheSternReviewonGlobalClimateChange".uk/media/4/3/Executive_Summary.pdf;.uk/media/A/6/Postscript.pdf;.uk/media/1/8/Technical_annex_to_the_postscript_P1-6.pdfMDec15:1500wordfinalpaperdueThDec18:FINALEXAM8-11AMPostedat11:01AMinAdministration|Permalink|Comments(10)20081017ImmigrationTheOldImmigrationandtheNewImmigration:Animmigratingnation?Notsomuchsince1930--atleastnotonthenationallevel...Immigratingregions--andnon-immigratingregions...Didimmigrantseverlooklike"old"America?Paddy-wagon,welsh,Dutchtreat,Dutchcourage,Dutchuncle,libertycabbage...Animmigratingnation?AboutasmuchasAustralia...LesssothanCanada...Twoimmigrations...Animmigrationoftheskilledandrelativelywell-offfromEurasia...AnimmigrationoftheunskilledandrelativelypoorfromLatinAmerica...Disquisitiononthemeaningof"skill"...Thepoliticalreaction...Economicimpacts...Socioculturalimpacts...Politicalimpacts...Howwouldyouredrawthisgraph?"ImmigrationandNationalWages:ClarifyingtheTheoryandtheEmpirics"GianmarcoI.P.Ottaviano,(Universita’diBolognaandCEPR)

GiovanniPeri,(UniversityofCalifornia,July2008/faculty/gperi/Papers/OP_redux_july_2008.pdfThispaperestimatestheeffectsofimmigrationonwagesofnativeworkersatthenationalU.S.level.FollowingBorjas(2003)wefocusonnationallabormarketsforworkersofdifferentskillsandweenrichhismethodologyandrefinepreviousestimates.Weemphasizethataproductionfunctionframeworkisneededtocombineworkersofdifferentskillsinordertoevaluatethecompetitionaswellascross-skillcomplementaryeffectsofimmigrantsonwages.Wealsoemphasizetheimportance(andestimatethevalue)oftheelasticityofsubstitutionbetweenworkerswithatmostahighschooldegreeandthosewithoutone.Sincethetwogroupsturnouttobeclosesubstitutes,thisstronglydilutestheeffectsofcompetitionbetweenimmigrantsandworkerswithnodegree.Wethenestimatethesubstitutabilitybetweennativesandimmigrantsandwefindasmallbutsignificantdegreeofimperfectsubstitutionwhichfurtherdecreasesthecompetitiveeffectofimmigrants.Finally,weaccountfortheshortrunandlongrunadjustmentofcapitalinresponsetoimmigration.UsingourestimatesandCensusdatawefindthatimmigration(1990-2006)hadsmallnegativeeffectsintheshortrunonnativeworkerswithnohighschooldegree(-0.7%)andonaveragewages(-0.4%)whileithadsmallpositiveeffectsonnativeworkerswithnohighschooldegree(+0.3%)andonaveragenativewages(+0.6%)inthelongrun.TheseresultsareperfectlyinlinewiththeestimatedaggregateelasticitiesinthelaborliteraturesinceKatzandMurphy(1992).Wealsofindawageeffectofnewimmigrantsonpreviousimmigrantsintheorderofnegative6%.Postedat11:00AMinLectureNotes|Permalink|Comments(0)November05,2008FocusonAfricanAmericans...FocusonAfricanAmericans:FocusonAfrican-AmericansJimCrowandthepost-CivilWarSouthBreakingsouthernbiracialpopulismUnderinvestmentineducationTheGreatMigrationtotheNorthViciousdiscriminationinthenorthButmuchhigherwagesthanfoundinthesouthLargescaleresidentialsegregationcreates:Northernghettoes--placeswherelandvaluesweredroppingbecauseoftheattractivenessofsuburbsSocialpathologies...TheCivilRightsMovementTheendoflegaldiscriminationHowmuchdifferencedoesitmake?Lessthanyouwouldhope.Ferociouseducationaldisparitiespersist--andinsomecasesareamplifiedasghettoschoolqualityfalls.Andinadditionthereis...IllegaldiscriminationHowmuchillegaldiscrimination?Hardtotell...Testerssay"alot".Butthemarketcanrouteitselfaroundsomediscrimination...Regressionstudiessay"alot":butemployersknowthingsthatstatisticiansdonot...Amountsurelyfallingovertime...Affirmativeactionanditsdilemmas...FocusonWomen:ClaudiaGoldin:Thefirstcohort,graduatingcollegefromthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytothecloseofWorldWarI,hadeither"familyorcareer."Thesecond,graduatingcollegefromaround1920totheendofWorldWarII,had"jobthenfamily."Thethirdcohort–thecollegegraduatemothersofthe"babyboom"–graduatedcollegefromaround1946tothemid-1960sandhad"familythenjob."Thefourthcohortgraduatedcollegefromthelate1960stothelate1970s.UsingtheNLSYoungWomenIdemonstratethat13to18percentachieved"careerthenfamily"byage40.Theobjectiveofthefifthcohort,graduatingfromaround1980to1990,hasbeen"careerandfamily,"and21to28percent(usingtheNLSYouth)haverealizedthatgoalbyage40.Itracethedemographicandlaborforceexperiencesofthesefivecohortsofcollegegraduatesanddiscusswhy"careerandfamily"outcomeschangedovertime...Postedat11:35AMinLectureNotes|Permalink|Comments(0)November03,2008Economics113PracticeMidtermEconomics113PracticeMidtermA.One-SentenceIdentifications:Foreachofthefifteentermsbelow,brieflystatetheimportanceofeachofthefollowingpeople/places/things/conceptsforAmericaneconomichistorysince1890orso.AgoodstrategyistotieeachIDintooneormoreofthemajorfactorsofproduction:land,labor,capital,technology,andinstitutions:Goldstandard;NewDeal;MarshallPlan;Plessyvs.Ferguson;GeneralMotors;TheodoreRoosevelt;J.P.Morgan;AmericanFederationofLabor;CongressofIndustrialOrganizations;JohnMaynardKeynes;GreatDepression;Panicof1907;high-schoolmovement;HerbertHoover;Pullmanstrike.B.One-ParagraphDiscussions:Writeoneparagraph(threetosixsentences)answeringeachofthefollowingquestions:WhataretheargumentsforthebeliefthatthehighlevelofstockpricesinAugust-September1929reflectedjustifiedifoptimisticconfidenceinthefutureoftheAmericaneconomy?Whataretheargumentsagainst?WhywasAmericaalargelylaissez-faireeconomybeforetheGreatDepression?AndhowdidthecomingoftheGreatDepressionchangeAmericans'beliefsabouttheroleofgovernment?Whatweretheargumentsforandag