市场下跌时,如何评估住宅房地产

1ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAppraisalofResidentialRealEstateinDecliningMarkets市场下跌时,如何评估住宅房地产主讲人:MarkRattermann,MAI,SRA联系方式Mark@E2ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSeminarLearningObjectives主要内容Recognizegeneralsourcesofmarketinformationthatmaygiveindicationsofmarkettrends.识别反映市场趋势的市场信息Recognizeadeclineinalocalmarketwhenitoccurs.及时发现当地市场出现的下跌趋势Measurethevaluelossesinlocalmarkets.估算市场中的价值损失Applythemeasuredrateofchangeintheanalysisofrealestateusingthecostapproach,incomecapitalizationapproach,andsalescomparisonapproach.在使用成本法,收益法,市场比较法分析房地产时,如何考虑价值的变化Illustratethetoolsnecessarytoshowyourclientstheresultsoftheresearchandanalysis(numericandgraphic).给客户演示研究和分析结果的工具(数字和图表)Applyvariousmethodstorecognizeandadjustformarketchange.使用不同的方法,分析和调整市场的变化Applythesetechniquesinsimulatedrealestatesituationsthroughcasestudies.案例分析Slide2Pagevii3ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide3Section1第一部分Part1. DecliningMarkets下跌的房地产市场Part2. GeneralMarketData市场数据Part3. IdentifyingtheMarket深入了解市场Part4. MeasuringtheMarket—Tools市场分析的工具Part5.CaseStudies(optional)案例4ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide4Part1.DecliningMarkets

第一节:下跌的房地产市场Introducestheissues简介Definestheterms定义Discussespossiblereasonsfordecliningmarketsandassociatedproblems.市场下跌的原因和相关问题Recognizethesignsofadecliningmarket.识别反映市场趋势的市场信号Recognizetheproblemscreatedforrealestatebuyersandsellersbydecliningmarkets.认识买方和卖方在下跌市场中存在的问题Recognizetheimpactoffallingvalueonequityinterests.了解价值下降对自有资金收益的影响Identifytheappropriatelocationsonthecommonlyusedresidentialappraisalformstoexplainmarketconditions.通用表格式估价报告中如何说明市场市场条件5ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide5“LasttoKnow”Appraisersstudyhistoricaldatatosupportcurrentvalues.

通过研究历史数据,研究当前的价值Weneedtorecognizeexistingtoolsandexplore

newones.

现有的工具和开发新的工具来分析市场变化Useacombinationoftools(oldandnew)

同时使用各种工具(新,旧)Appraisersneedtobeabletodevelop“trendanalysistools”.估价师应该有能力开发“分析市场的工具”.6ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsRecognizeeconomicproblemswhentheyoccur.

及时发现经济中存在的问题Analyzetheimpactonrealestateofgeneraleconomicchanges.

分析经济变化对房地产市场的影响Reconcilethemixedmessages.

综合考虑各类信息Reportyouropinion.

在估价报告中说明你的观点Slide6AnalyticalToolsHelpAppraisers

分析工具对估价师的帮助7ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsItismoredifficulttoovervalueaproperty.

很难不高估房地产的价值Theeffectivedateofvaluereflectsthemarketconditions

估价时点反映了市场条件Itisalsocommonforappraiserstobe“forgiven”whenpricesareincreasing.See1.1Example.

当价格上升时,估价师的错误经常被掩盖.见下一案例

WhenaMarketIsAppreciatingRapidly

市场快速上升时8ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAnappraisererroneouslyappraisesaproperty

for￥300,000thatisworthonly￥275,000.Inthismarket,valuesareincreasingat10%

peryear.Lessthanoneyearaftertheoriginaldateofappraisal,thepropertyisnowworth￥300,000.Anypreviouscomplaintaboutovervaluingisdiminishedbyitscurrentworth.Thisappraisalmightberegardedasaproblembytheappraiser’speers,butnotbythepublic.1.1Example—AppreciationCuresaLotofIlls9ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsItisnaturaltoovervalueaproperty.

高估是正常的Anoverpricedpropertyonthemarketforalongtimemovesfurtherawayfrommarketvalueeachday.See1.2Example.

高估的市场价值每天都在减少WhenaMarketIsDeclining

市场下跌时10ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsThesubjectisinamarketwherepricesarefallingbyabout3%peryear.Thepropertywascorrectlyappraisedat￥300,000,butitwasoverpricedanddidnotsell.Theselleraggressivelyloweredthepriceby.25%eachmonth.Asaresultofthedecliningmarket,thesellerkeptevenwiththechanges.Thepropertywasneverpricedwithinthiscompetitivemarket.1.2Example—ChasingtheValueDowntheHill11ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsOptimisminadecliningmarkethasitscosts.Inadecliningmarket,anaccuratevalueopiniontodaymaynotbevalidtomorrow.1.2Example—ChasingtheValueDowntheHill12ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsIfthereisnegativeequity,sellingthepropertyandpayingoffthemortgagemaynotbeanoption.Thereisanoldrealestateaxiom,“Negativeequitybreedsforeclosure.”Theonlyoptionmaybetoholdthepropertyaslongaspossibleandthenallowaforeclosure.Decliningvaluesbringtolightmanyproblemsthatareotherwisehiddenbyappreciation.Evenifthebrokercansellthepropertyformorethanthemortgageamount,theremaynotbeapayday.See1.3Example.NegativeEquity13ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents1.3Example—NegativeEquityBreedsForeclosureThesubjectpropertyislistedforsaleat￥349,900.Thebrokerthinksitwillsellfor￥345,000inthismarket.Thebrokerfeeis6%andothercostsadd1%.Thebrokerturneddownthelistingbecausethesellersdidnothaveanymoremoney.Thebrokerdidnotthinkshecouldsellthepropertyformorethan￥345,000.14ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsInotherwords,thesellersdidnothavethemoneytoclose.1.3Example—NegativeEquityBreedsForeclosure15ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsPart2.GeneralMarketData第二节:市市场数据据LearningObjectivesDefinemarketdataterms.市场数据的的定义Identifysourcesofgeneralmarketdataforappraiserstoresearchmarketconditions.市场数据的的来源Definetheweaknessesofapplyinggeneralmarketdatatoaspecificmarket.市场数据中中存在的缺缺陷Illustratehowsomemarketsfunctionwhentherearesignificantsupplyanddemandswings.分析供需变变化16ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsContractRateon30-YearFixed-RateHomeMortgages贷款的浮动动利率和固固定利率Theabove-listedinterestratesarefairlyhighintheearly1980s.Theratesgenerallydeclinein1982–1983,1986,1994,and1999–2000.1817ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsContractRateon30-YearFixed-RateHomeMortgagesAnapplicantwhoqualifiesfora￥￥1,000permonthmortgagepaymentata6%interestratecouldborrow￥166,791.61.At14.5%,thatsameapplicantcouldborrowonly￥￥81,662.26.HigherinterestratesinhibitdemandbecausebuyersdonotwanttopayhigherratesBuyersmayevenchoosetowaitforlowerrates.18ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsNationalAssociationofRealtors(NAR),nationaldatabaseofsalesandlistings19ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsMedianSalePrice-ExistingSingle-FamilyHomeSales(NAR)20ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsMedianSalePriceExistingSingle-FamilyHomeSales(000’’somitted)21ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsExistingSingle-FamilyHomeSales(NAR)2022ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide22AllStateData(NAR)CityMedianSalePriceTrends24ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsTrackingBuildingPermitscangiveacluetoachangeindemandinthebeginningofadownturnmarket.Ifthemarkethaschangedforawhilepermitsbottomoutandthenarenotagoodclue.25ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsTrackingBuildingPermitsfromDept.ofCommerce.26ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsNewPrivatelyOwnedHousingUnitPermitsx1,00027ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsWhatKindofMarketsExist?Thefirstmarketinthisgraphisavolatileonewherelargeincreasesinpricesoccurandthenlargedeclines.28ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents“Althoughthisgeneraldataisinteresting,howcanitbeappliedtoappraisalpractice?”Whencombinedwithdatafromothermarkets,cannotbeusedtodiscernlocalmarketconditions.AppraiserscanrelyonthesedatasourcestohelpidentifyachangeinmarketconditionsthatCOULDbehappeninglocally.ThisisexcellentdataforunderwriterswhoreviewappraisalsthroughoutChina.Itispossibleforalocalmarkettobesubstantiallydifferentduetochangesinemployment,housing,orevenschoolratings.Thelocalmarketdatamaybemisleadingifthestatisticsarenotcalculatedonanongoingbasis.RelevanceofGeneralDatatoLocalAppraisers29ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsPart3.IdentifyingtheMarket深入了解市市场Identifycriteriathatbuyersusetoselectapropertytopurchase分析买方购购买物业的的原因Recognizethatanoversupplyinonemarketmaynotmeananoversupplyinanothermarketorsubmarket一个城市供供给过度另另一个城市市供给并不不一定过度度Beabletodivideamarketintosubmarketstoidentifytrendsthataffectonesegmentbutnotallofthem将市市场场细细分分,分分析析局局部部对对整整体体的的影影响响30ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsIsInformationfromOneMarketApplicableorTransferabletoAnother?一个个市市场场的的信信息息可可以以应应用用到到另另一一个个市市场场吗吗Ifanappraiserseespricesfallinginonemarket,canitbeassumedtheyarefallinginallpartsofthesamegeographicarea?Inanymarket,pricescanincreaseordecreasesignificantlyifabasiceconomicfactorchanges.Isthemarketinoneprovinceorregionthesameasinotherprovincesorregions?Thereisonlyonethingcertaininthisdiscussion——thereisno““onesizefitsall””market.31ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsIsInformationfromOneMarketApplicableorTransferabletoAnother?Arethesamemarketconditionsapplicabletoallcommunitieswithinthesameregionofaprovince?Increasingordecliningpricesresultfromshiftsinsupplyanddemandintheshortrun.Therearemanyfactorsthatwillimpactonecommunitymorethananother.32ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAremarketconditionsinacommunityapplicabletoallpriceranges?Thefactorscausinghighorlowdemanddonothavetobeapplicabletoalldemographics.Isthemarketforfour-bedroomhomesthesameasthemarketfortwo-bedroomhomes?Sincethedemographicisdifferent,themarketconditionscouldalsobemuchdifferent.IsInformationfromOneMarketApplicableorTransferabletoAnother?33ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsMarketsandSubmarkets市场场和和市市场场细细分分Anopinionofmarketvalueviasalescomparisonisresearchbasedonwhatpriormarketparticipantshavedone.Thisrequirestheappraisertoidentifythemarketandanysubmarkets.Thepossiblecriteriausedtoidentifyandsegregateamarketreflectthecriteriabywhichbuyerschoosepropertiestoview.Anappraisercannotcountthenumberofbuyersandsellerswithoutknowingtheircriteria.34ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsExamplesofCriteriaUsedinPurchaseDecisionsSchoolsystemMunicipalgovernmentservicesParkdistrictLibrarydistrictLocationFireprotectiondistrictsPolicedistrictsLotsizeUtilitiesavailable3935ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsExamplesofCriteriaUsedinPurchaseDecisionsQualityofimprovementsAgeofimprovementsConditionofimprovementsSizeofimprovementsBasementandbasementfinishEnergyefficiencyCarparkingOtherfeatures3936ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSearchtoolscancompiledatafromasmall,localmarketarea.Someofthisdataiscompiledandgraphedforthebrokerorappraiserasshownonthefollowinggraph.Part4.MeasuringtheMarket—Tools-LocalDatabases市场分析析的工具具37ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents37LocalDatabaseInformation––pre-calculatedanalysis22LocalDatabaseInformation当地数据据信息Somedatabasesallowappraiserstodownloadlargeamountsofsalesinformation.Thisdatacanbeinterpretedandpresentedbytheappraisertosupportconclusions.Therearegraphictoolsandregressiontoolsavailable.Forexample;38ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents39ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents39LocalDatabaseInformationforaspecificsubdivision.40ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents40Graphwithregression(trend)linefromlocaldatabaseinformationforaspecificsubdivision.2341ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsLocalDatabaseStatistics––CarmelIndiana4142ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsTools——SupplyandDemandStudyThefirstsignofachangingmarketcanbeverifiedbytheappraiserwhiledevelopingthesupplyanddemandstudy.Measurethemonthlysalesrate,e.g.theannualnumberofsalesinthemarketdividedby12.Dividethenumberofcurrentforsale(listings)bythemonthlysalesrate.43ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAssesstheattributesofthesubject.Decidewhothetypicalbuyerisinthedesignatedmarket.Designasearchtocountthenumberofcompetingpropertiesforeachpotentialbuyer.ToUseThisTool,theAppraiserMust44ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsCountthenumberofCurrentlistingsavailablewithinthosebuyercriteriaComparablesalesthathaveclosedinthelast12monthsDividethenumberoflistingsbythemonthlyabsorptionrate.Eitheranexcessoralackofpendingsalescouldindicateachange.Pendingsalesandexpired/withdrawnlistingsdonothavetobeincluded.Thisanalysiscanbedonefor6or12months.ToUseThisTool,theAppraiserMust45ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.1Example—SupplyandDemandAnalysisofOversupplyThesubjectpropertyisimprovedwithatwo-storyhousebuiltin1997withafullbasementandanattachedtwo-cargarage.Theappraiser’sanalysisindicatesthehomeshouldsellforabout￥￥350,000.46ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.1Example—SupplyandDemandAnalysisofOversupplyThisisprobablythebesttoolavailabletoeasilyresearch,analyze,andreportanoversupplyproblem.Thedataimpliesthatthereiscurrentlya37-monthsupplyofhomesforsaleinthismarket.Appraiserswhofeeltheneedtoreporttheperimetersofthesearchshouldnotincludebedrooms,aschoolsystem,orotherattributesthatmaycausefairhousingconcerns.47ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.2Example—SupplyandDemandAnalysisofUndersupplyThesubjectisaone-storyhomebuiltonslabwithadetachedfour-cargarage.Itwasconstructedin1930.Theappraiserhasvaluedthehomeat￥￥550,000.48ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide48Thisexampleshowsamarketfavoringsellersthatwouldprobablycausepricestoincrease.Ifthecomparablesalesusedinanappraisalarerecent,theywouldalreadyreflecttheimpactofsuchamarket.Thequestionraisedbyboth4.1Exampleand4.2Exampleis,““Doesthisreflectthemarketforthesubjectasoftheeffectivedateofappraisal?””4.2Example—SupplyandDemandAnalysisofUndersupply5049ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide49Tools—UsingComparableListingsinAdditiontoSalesAnothertoolusedbymanyappraiserstoensuretheyareawareofadeclineinthemarketisincludingtwoorthreecurrentcomparablelistingsintheanalysis.Anexampleofananalysiswithcomparablelistingsappearsonthenexttwoslides.5050ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsComparables1and251ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsComparables3,4,and552ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsNoticetheoldersalesindicateahighervaluethanthemorerecentcomparable3.Listings4and5showamuchloweradjustedvalue.Inamarketwherethiskindofdatadoesnotexist,theappraiserusesthedataavailableandlooksfortrendsafteradjustmentsaremade.Insomedownturnmarkets,thenumberoflistingsisplentiful,butthenumberofrecentcomparablesalesislimited.Tools—UsingComparableListingsinAdditiontoSales53ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsTools—UsingDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatioTwomoretoolsusedbyappraisersaredaysonmarket(DOM)andlistpricetosalepriceratioforunitssoldinaspecificmarket.Thiswillgivesomeindicationofthecurrentmarket.See4.3Example.54ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.3Example—DaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatioThesubjectislocatedinamarketwherethefollowingdatawasfoundintheMLScomputer.Thedataalonewouldimplyachangeinmarket.Thebargraphonthenextslideillustratesthisaswell.TheDOMisforsoldunits.55ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.3Example—DaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatio56ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide56Tools—UsingDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatioThestudyofdaysonmarket(DOM)canbeagoodtool.Itcanalsobemanipulatedbyrealestatebrokerswhoaretryingtomaketheirlistingslookasrecentaspossible.See4.4Example.5657ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide574.4Example—DaysonMarket(DOM)Thesubjectisaverylargehomeinasmalltown.Ithasbeenonthemarketfornearlythreeyears,butappraiserswhofindtheMLSlistingpagewillthinkithasbeenonly45days.Thebrokerhashadthelistingforalongtime,andeachtimeitexpires,itisrelistedwithaslightlydifferentaddress.Theactualaddressofthepropertyis2929WestSouthlakeBoulevard.Thefirsttimeitwaslisted,theaddresswasspelledoutinfull.Thesecondtime,theword“West”wasabbreviatedas““W.”Thethirdtime,““Boulevard”wasabbreviatedas“Blvd.”Thefourthtime,““Southlake”waslistedastwowords,

“SouthLake.”5658ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide58Thestudyoflistpricetosalepriceratioscanalsobemisleading.See4.5Example.Tools—UsingDaysonMarket(DOM)andListPricetoSalePriceRatio59ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsThesubjectwaslistedfor￥499,000for30days.After60days,thepricewasloweredto￥￥475,000.After90days,Itwasloweredagainto￥449,000.Finally,afterthepricewasreducedto￥￥439,900,itsoldfor￥435,000.Thefinallistpricetosalepriceratioseemsquitereasonable,butthatisbecausethelistpricewasreducedsomanytimes.Thisratiosometimesshowsabigdiscountbecausesellersaremoreaggressiveintheirnegotiationsinadowntownmarket.Itshouldalsobepointedoutthatwhenconcessionsaremorecommon,thelisttosalepriceratiowillbeskewed.Insomesituations,thisratiomayexceed100%becauseoftheinclusionofconcessions.4.5Example—ListPricetoSalePriceRatio60ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAppraiserswillfindthatthecostapproach,afterdeductingonlyphysicaldepreciation,showsahighervalueindicationthanthesalescomparisonapproach.Thecostapproachdoesnotinherentlyrecognizeexternalproblems.Ahighervalueconclusioncouldalsobeduetounrecognizedfunctionalproblems,bias,orerrorsinthecurrentcostorsitevalueestimates.Tools—ComparingtheCostApproachtotheSalesComparisonandIncomeCapitalizationApproaches61ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide61FannieMaerequiresaone-yearsaleshistoryforthesubjectpriortotheeffectivedateforthecomparablesales.USPAPrequiresathree-yearsaleshistory.Thisisanexcellenttoolifthedataisavailablebecauseitshowstheactualchangesinamarket.Thesaleandresaleofthesamepropertyeliminatesanylocationaldifference.Thesaleshistorytellsappraisersifamarkethasahighappreciationrateordecliningvalues.Thetableonthenextslideshowsvariousitemsforconsiderationwhenusingthesaleandresaleofthesamepropertyasanindicationofmarketconditions.Tools—AnalysisofaSale,ResaleoftheSameProperty5762ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsAnalysisoftheSaleandResaleoftheSameProperty5863ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide634.6Example—AnalysisofComparableSalesHistoryThesubjectisanolderhomeinahistoricdistrictwherebuyersareconstantlyupgradingproperties.Theappraiserdeterminesthatthemarketisweak,butallthesalesandresalesindicatesignificantappreciation.Theappraiserthenfurtherverifiesallthesalesandfindsthedatashowninthenextslide.6164ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgents4.6Example—AnalysisofComparableSalesHistory65ChinaInstituteofRealEstateAppraisersandAgentsSlide65Part4.MeasuringtheMarket——Tools,cont.Tools—StatisticalAnalysisoftheMeanorMedianSalePriceInsomesituations,appraiserscanusetheaveragesalepriceinanareatogaugehowthemarketisperforming.Theaveragesalepricecanbemisleadingifitisnotinterpretedcorrectly.Ifmortgagetermsarelessfavorable,first-timebuyerswithhighloan-to-valu