2022-05管理会clc east china mgmt meeting market updated全国总体去库存调控

1、Market Update East China Management Meeting Nov 2015Policy Update：全国总体去库存，上海调控全国总体基调：去库存，促进住房消费韩正发表讲话，提出上海房地产市场结构性和房价问题：办公用房、商业用房投资增幅过大、保有量过大中小套型商品住房供应严重不足供地不合理上海房价过高，削弱城市竞争力你，须调控随后，上海多幅已公告住宅地块对中小套型指标进行了调整2015年11月，中央多次表态，强调房地产行业去库存的目标，稳定房地产市场，主要政策方向如下增加住房需求降低购房门槛降低房企融资难度减少土地供应等商务部、外汇局发布关于进一步改进外商投资房地

2、产备案工作的通知，取消商务部网站备案公示程序，进一步简化外资房地产投资程序国管公积金最低贷款额度由原来的50万元提至70万元上海：调结构，控制房价Shanghai City InfoAs at 30 Sep 20152015 Q3 DataY-o-Y GrowthGDPRMB 1,787b6.8%CPI-2.4%Resident Population24.3m (2014)/Avg Urban Disposable e (per capita)RMB 39,6868.2%Avg Residential Sales Price (psm GFA)RMB 33,179*20.4%*Note: As

3、 at 30st Nov 2015Source: Shanghai Statistics Bureau, Shanghai Population Bureau, CRICShanghai Residential MarketSource: CRICsqmRMB psmOct 2015Y-o-Y (%)M-o-M (%)Transacted Volume38.4%10.2%Avg Transacted Price20.4%11.3%As at 31 Oct 2015Shanghai Residential Market Overview Supply, Demand 2010年至今，上海住宅供应

4、呈逐渐外移，但随着上海市区北部的更新，2015年外环内商品住宅供应所占比例相比前两年有所提高上半年市场开始回暖，市场热点重新回到开发较为成熟的区域（郊环内），特别是中外环间成交占比大幅提高Source: CRIC上海商品住宅供应量环线分布（2009-201511）上海商品住宅成交量环线分布（2009-201511）Shanghai Residential Market上海住宅市场在9-10月迎来供应高峰，新增住宅供应面积超过350万，市场存量略有抬头但与此同时，在第二季度市场销量增加的基础上，第三季度市场销量持续增加，9-10月月均成交面积近150万，存量住宅的预计去化周期依然保持在低位万月S

5、ource: Shanghai Residential Land Market DistributionSource: 上海规土局网站&上海房地网16截止到2015年第3季度，全市住宅土地供应与商品住宅成交量的比值与上季度末数据相比下降明显，由1.22下降至0,92，土地供应的增加依然远落后于住宅去化的速度除奉贤、青浦、闸北外，各区未来去化压力均不大，而长宁、静安等核心区域已多年未有新增住宅土地供应上海商品住宅土地成交量/商品住宅成交量（2012-2015Q3）全市平均8* Future supply factored in delays based on available informat

6、ion about future supply specificationsSource: Jones Lang LaSalle (Real Estate Intelligence Service), 3Q15 Total Stock Summary for ShanghaiTotal stock to rise by around 6.2 million sqm by end-2019Shanghai CBD Grade A Office at Q3 20159Notes: *Effective rents on GFA basis; changes are calculated on th

7、e basis of a like-for-like basket. Increase in stock represents new completions.Source: Jones Lang LaSalle (Real Estate Intelligence Service), 3Q15 Shanghai Premium Grade A Office at Q3 201510Notes: *Effective rents on GFA basis; changes are on the basis of a like-for-like basket.Increase in stock r

8、epresents new completions. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle (Real Estate Intelligence Service), 3Q15 Hangzhou City InfoAs at 30 Sep 20152015 Q3 DataY-o-Y GrowthGDPRMB 710.2 b10.2%CPI-1.5%Resident Population *8.89m0.54%Avg Urban Disposable e (per capita) RMB 34,1269.1%Avg Residential Sales Price (psm GFA)R

9、MB 14,968(Oct 2015)0.4%Note: Data from Hangzhou Stats Bureau & CRIC* Info as at Q4 2014Hangzhou Residential MarketAs at 31 Oct 2015Source: CRICAug 2015Y-o-YM-o-MTransacted Volume (sqm)-13.8%-2.3%Avg Transacted Price (RMB psm)0.4%-1.8%sqmRMB psmNingbo City InfoAs at 30 Sep 20152015 Q2 DataY-o-Y GrowthGDPRMB 487.7b6.9%CPI-1.6%Registered Population*5.84m0.64%Avg Urban Disposable e (per capita) RMB 37,2388.8%Avg Residential Sales Price (psm GFA)RMB 13,529(Oct 2015)1.2%Note: Data from Ningbo Stats Bureau & CRICNingbo Resident