第9章项目的成本计划和绩效ppt课件

1、第九章 工程的本钱方案和绩效于华yuhucas.ac 北京2021.11 本章要点挣值概念估算本钱时要思索的细目预备基线预算计算累计本钱确定挣值分析本钱绩效预测工程完工本钱控制工程本钱管理现金流引子问题工程实例活动费用预算(万)122134.5435164728296105110.5合计31工程由11个活动组成总工期为121天费用为31万 按方案二个月应该完成活动1、2、3、5、6、8经统计实践完成了活动1、2、3、5、6实践破费13.9万。哪个结论正确？结论1:工程实践进度比如案落后一点点但费用控制得很好，只需在以后的二个月加快进度，胜利完成工程是不成问题的。结论2：工程进度落后与方案大约1

2、4%费用也有10%左右的超支假设后期不加强有效的管理和控制，工程失败是不可防止的。挣值的概念思索如下工程粉刷9个房间总工期9天总费用$900每个房间$100任务绩效在第4天中午时(4.5天)破费了$400他以为工程完成情况如何?应该破费$450，才破费了$400节约了$50，我真能干！挣值的概念(Cont.)从收入上来讲，赚钱了么？挣得了$300(由于只粉刷3个房间，即1/3总任务量)破费了$400亏了$100任务绩效在第4天中午时(4.5天)破费了$400粉刷终了3个房间挣得了$300从工期上来说，符合进度要求么？ 粉刷3个房间，应该是3天的任务量 却破费了4.5天 工期也晚了1.5天时间就

3、是金钱，工期也可以用钱表示 4.5天=$450；3天=$300 晚了1.5天=亏了$150059天费用500900PV=450PV=Planned Value 方案值AC=400AC=Actual Cost 实践本钱SV=EV-PV=-150SV=Schedule Variance 进度偏向EV=300EV=Earned Value 挣值CV=EV-AC=-100CV=Cost Variance 本钱偏向挣值的概念(Cont.)PVACEVDATA DATETIMETO-DATA COST VARIANCEEACETGPROJECTION OF SCHEDULE DELAY AT COMPLE

4、TIONPROJECTION OF COST VARIANCE AT COMPLETIONTARGET SCHEDULETO-DATA SCHEDULE VARIANCECVSVPVEVACFCSTBACBACEACETGFCSTLEGEND:=Planned Value=Earned Value=Actual Cost=Forecast of remaining work=Budget At Completion=Estimate At completion=Estimate To GoCOSTEarned Value ElementsAlphabet soup工程本钱估算本钱方案开场于工程

5、建议书本钱部分包括劳动力原资料分包商和顾问租用设备和工具差旅费 工程预算过程的两个步骤第一步 将工程本钱分摊到WBS中的各任务包上第二步 将任务包的预算分摊到整个任务包的工期内分摊总预算本钱按工程总本钱的不同本钱要素分摊到适当的任务包中，并为每一个任务包建立总预算本钱本钱要素：人工、原资料、分包商总预算本钱(Total Budgeted Cost, TBC)建立TBC的两种方法由顶向下(top-down)自下而上(bottom-up)预算相加后不能超越工程总预算本钱分摊预算本钱的WBS包装机工程生成累计预算本钱将TBS分摊到各任务包的整个工期中每期的本钱是根据 组成该任务包的各个活动的进度所确

6、定的累计预算本钱(cumulative budgeted cost, CBC)按进度完成任务的预算量累计的预算量作为与实践破费本钱比较的基准包装机工程的每期预算本钱包装机工程的累计预算本钱(CBC)曲线确定实践本钱建立数据采集系统，追踪实践破费本钱数据分期分摊承付本钱到实践本钱中承付本钱，或保管本钱即使最后付款，也应预先留出并随着任务的不断开展分期地摊入到实践本钱中用任务包的实践本钱和承付本钱与CBC进展比较计算实践积累本钱(Cumulative actual cost ,CAC)包装机工程的每期实践本钱包装机工程的预算与实践本钱的比较包装机工程的累计预算本钱(CBC)曲线包装机工程的累计实践

7、本钱(CAC)曲线包装机工程的累计预算本钱曲线与实践本钱曲线确定绩效的价值(挣值)挣值(Earned value, EV)是实践任务绩效挣得的价值挣值确实定搜集每个任务包所完成任务量的百分比将这个百分比乘以这个任务包的总预算本钱(TBC)这一百分比确实定是非常重要的表9-3 包装机工程每期累计完成比率%表9-4 包装机工程每期累计挣值包装机工程的累计预算本钱，累计实践本钱和累计挣值曲线本钱绩效分析的四个目的TBC(total budgeted cost)：总预算本钱CBC(cumulative budgeted cost)：累计预算本钱CAC(cumulative actual cost)：累

8、计实践本钱CEV(cumulative earned value)：累计挣值截至第8周的包装机工程情况费用绩效指数(CPI)绩效费用指数(CPI, Cost performance index)用来衡量正在进展的工程的本钱效率 CPI = F(CEV,CAC)= CEV/CAC包装机工程第8周的CPI： CPI =CEV/CAC=54,000/68,000=0.79表示每实践支出1美圆，只实现0.79美圆的挣值本钱偏向(CV)本钱偏向(CV, Cost Variance)是衡量本钱绩效的另一个目的是累计挣值与累计实践本钱之差CV = CEV CAC包装机工程第8周的费用偏向CV： CV =CE

9、V-CAC=$54,000-$68,000=-$14,000本钱预测本钱预测(FCAC，forecasted cost at completion 的三种方法 假设工程未完工部分将按照到目前为止已完工的效率去进展FCAC =TBC/CPI不论过去已有工程的效率如何，剩余任务都按照预算进展FCAC =CAC+(TBC-CEV)重估一切要进展的剩余任务的本钱，然后再加上目前的累计实践本钱FCAC = CAC +重估剩余任务的本钱引子问题解答工程实例挣值分析任务量统计是准确的分析的结果完全不同工程当前的PV为14.5万AC为13.9万EV为12.5万进度偏向SV=EV-PV=12.5-14.5= -

10、2万0费用偏向CV=EV-AC=12.5-13.9= -1.4万0进度绩效指数SPI=EV/PV=12.5/14.5= 0.86 1费用绩效指数CPI=EV/AC=12.5/13.9= 0.901结果假设工程后期的费用绩效和进度绩效与前二个月差不多，在完工时的估算绩效为：完工费用估算:EAC=(BAC-EV)/CPI+AC=(31-12.5)/0.9+13.9=34.45万完工总时间估算:方案总工期/进度绩效指数SPI=121/0.86=140.7天结论工程进度落后与方案大约15%费用也有10%左右的超支假设后期不加强有效的管理和控制，工程失败是不可防止的。 CASE 1PV = $ 1,86

11、0EV = $ 1,860AC = $ 1,860This is the ideal situation, where everything goes according to plan.CASE 2PV = $ 1,900AC = $ 1,700In this case, without Earned Value measurements, it appears were in good shape. Expenditures are less than planned.Spending Variance = - $ 200CASE 2PV = $ 1,900EV = $ 1,500AC =

12、 $ 1,700But with EV measurements, we see.$400 worth of work is behind schedule in being completed; i.e., we are 21 percent behind where we planned to be.SV = EV PV = - $ 400SPI = SV / PV = - 21 %CASE 2PV = $ 1,900EV = $ 1,500AC = $ 1,700In addition, we can see.“Actuals exceed “Value Earned (EV), i.e

13、., $1,500 worth of work was accomplished but it cost $1,700 to do so. We have a $200 cost overrun (i.e., 13% over budget) .CV = EV AC = - $ 200CV % = CV / EV x 100 = - 13 %CASE 2PV = $ 1,900EV = $ 1,500AC = $ 1,700This means only 79 cents worth of work was done for each $1.00 worth of work planned t

14、o be done. And, only 88 cents worth of work was actually done for each $1.00 spentSPI = EV / PV = $ 0.79CPI = EV / AC = $ 0.88CASE 2PV = $ 1,900EV = $ 1,500AC = $ 1,700This is the worst kind of scenario, where all performance indicators are negative.SV = - $ 400; SPI = 0.79CV = - $ 200; CPI = 0.88PV

15、 = $ 2,600EV = $ 2,400 AC = $ 2,200In this case there is bad news and good news.CASE 3PV = $ 2,600EV = $ 2,400 AC = $ 2,200The bad news is that our work efficiency is a bit low; were getting only 92 cents of work done on the dollar. As a result, we are behind schedule.SPI = 0.92 SV = - $ 200; SV % =

16、 - 8 %CASE 3PV = $ 2,600EV = $ 2,400 AC = $ 2,200The good news is that were under-running our budget. Were getting $1.09 worth of work done for each $1.00 were spending.CV = + $ 200; CV % = + 8 %CPI = 1.09CASE 3CASE 4PV = $ 1,700EV = $ 1,500AC = $ 1,500In this case, the work is not being accomplishe

17、d on schedule.SV = - $ 200; SV % = - 12 %SPI = 0.88CASE 4PV = $ 1,700EV = $ 1,500AC = $ 1,500.but the cost of the work accomplished is just as we budgeted.CV = $ 0.00CPI = 1.00CASE 5PV = $ 1,400EV = $ 1,600AC = $ 1,400A positive scenario; right? But is it because we are out-performing our learning-c

18、urve standards or because we planned too pessimistically?CASE 5PV = $ 1,400EV = $ 1,600AC = $ 1,400Here in this CASE, we are getting work done at 114 percent efficiency.SPI = 1.14CPI = 1.14CASE 5PV = $ 1,400EV = $ 1,600AC = $ 1,400.work is ahead of schedule by 14 percent and under-running cost by 12

19、.5%.SV = + $ 200; SV % = + 14 %CV = + $ 200; CV % = + 12.5 %CASE 6PV = $ 2,000EV = $ 2,200AC = $ 2,400In case 6, work is being done efficiently, but a cost overrun is occurring.SPI = 1.10CV = - $ 200; CV % = - 9 %CASE 7PV = $ 2,200EV = $ 2,400AC = $ 2,400In case 7, work is being done efficiently, an

20、d costs are right on target.SPI = 1.09CV = $ 0.00CASE 8PV = $ 2,000EV = $ 2,000AC = $ 2,200See if you can analyze this one!SV = EV PVSV % = SV / PVCV = EV ACCV % = CV / EVSPI = EV / PVCPI = EV / ACCASE 8PV = $ 2,000EV = $ 2,000AC = $ 2,200Were on schedule. But in order to be on schedule, its costing

21、 us $1.00 to do each 91-cents worth of work. Theres a $200 overrun as a result.SV = $ 0.00CV = - $ 200; CPI = 0.91CASE 9PV = $ 1,700EV = $ 1,500AC = $ 1,900OK, see how you do with this one!SV = EV PVSV % = SV / PVCV = EV ACCV % = CV / EVSPI = EV / PVCPI = EV / ACCASE 9PV = $ 1,700EV = $ 1,500AC = $

22、1,900Negative scenario:12% behind schedule and over-running cost by 27%SV = - $ 200; SV % = - 12 %CV = - $ 400; CV% = - 27 %CASE 10PV = $ 1,000EV = $ 0.00AC = $ 800Lets try one more!SV = EV PVSV % = SV / PVCV = EV ACCV % = CV / EVSPI = EV / PVCPI = EV / ACCASE 10PV = $ 1,000EV = $ 0.00AC = $ 800A tough one!Of $1,000 worth of scheduled work, no measurable milestone has yet been accomplished. However, $800 has been spent just getting started.S