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1、Statistics ReportGROUP MEMBERS: Shao Xiayu(SCN 20085878339 ) Yang Zheng(SCN 20085878040 ) Liang Han(SCN 20085878018 )Liang Zhanning(SCN 20085878087 )Zhang Yajie(SCN 20085878335 )Zhou Weifeng(SCN 20085878271 ) TO: Su Nan Class: International Trade Date: May 23. 2010 Letter of transmittalThe report is

2、 written for HSBCs Research Headquarters. The report has finished at May 20, 2010. and finished with team work. Executive summary The reports structures are descriptive analysis, inferential analysis and decision making analysis. The methods are used in the case are probability distribution and quan

3、titative approach. Through analysis the bank RBCC, bankers accepted the personal loan never considering Gender. Bankers prefer to lend them money because their family and income more stable. People whose ages between 30 to 50 also lend more money from RBCC. If the family has more children they will

4、have more debt. In RBCC there are 15.3% customers go into default. RBCC collect the default debt by approach the customers the right way which falls behind on payments. When HSBC manage its subsidiaries they should control the subsidiaries managers. And fully control their shares. ContentsExecutive

5、summary2Introduction4List of table5Assumptions5Task 1. Theoretical Statistics6Question one:6Question two:6Question three:7Question four:7Question five:10Question six:11Task 2: Application Statistics12Question one12Question two14Question three16Task three: Business Decision Making17Question 1.17Quest

6、ion 2.18Question 3.19Question 4.20Question 5.22Question 6.23Question 7.24Conclusion25Recommendation25Reference list25Distribution the assignment26Meeting Schedule26Introduction This report is consists of three parts, theoretical statistics, application statistics, and business decision making. In th

7、eoretical statistics, it main to explain the basics knowledge of statistics, such as primary information, second information and method of data collection and so on. It has six questions. In application statistics. It main to explain the bell distribution of statistics. In business decision making.

8、It main to deal with default debt, the follows is our report. List of tableCredit rankingRisk indicators1A0.42B0.53C0.64D0.75E0.86F1.0Type of loanfixed assets company guarantee personal security no fixed asset collateral Only depend on credit loansRisk indicators20%50%70%80%100%Assumptions l all giv

9、en information are true and correctl assumptions are binominal distributionl the confidence level is 95% through the whole reportl the average service fee is 13.8 per month in each bankl Different lenders has different loan coefficient and the given different interest ratesTask 1. Theoretical Statis

10、ticsQuestion one: Distinguish primary sources and secondary sources?Primary informationPrimary information is that collected from our experienced and we sort out from files. Primary information has stronger confidential. First-hand information refer to: literature and cultural information. Primary i

11、nformation on the holders of the data and firstly contact with that information, but also has a high degree of confidentiality.Primary information with the empirical, and the advantages is lively and readable.In case study, the conversation of Juli Beck, Andy Beck, and Dan beck is Primary informatio

12、n.secondary dataSecondary data is that already exists somewhere and has been for a purpose or what happened up the data editor. secondary sources (secondary data)refer to other purpose that others had previously collected, rather than the researchers on hand to collect information on their research。

13、 In case study, the summary of HSBCs History and foundation and growth are the secondary data.Question two: Describe and justify the survey methodology used for data collection related to the case There are many methods of data collection. Such as, observation, survey, questionnaire, search in the o

14、nline, face to face investigation. In the case, we can find it has search in the online and investigation by face to face. The current management team, led by Julia, Daniel, and Andrew Beck (the president, CFO, and COO, respectively) has engaged your consulting team to analyze data from 1,000 recent

15、 loans and make recommendations. This is primary information.This HSBC case has been clear up by somebody. So it can be defined second information.From the case, we can find it has used group research and phone interview Question three: If ask you designed the questionnarie

16、for colleting the data, what types of question you will use ? consider the charecterists of different types of question for data analysis. In the case, open questions are more than closed questions. Open questions can make more kinds of answer about one question. Peoples thought can be opened, Under

17、stand everyone idea about it. We also can compare them then choose the best answer. On the other hand, it may make some answers which are unable. it is difficult to statistic data, whats more, we need more time to statistic data, people have same question that we can not find common ideas. Question

18、four: Using the different variables for RBCC, you will be required to present the a set of data which are in Excel file rbcc.xls by appropiate charts or diagrams ? (at least three charts or diagrams)a. Pareto chart of Marital Status of HSBCMarital StatusNumberPercentageSingle28828.80%Married56256.20

19、%Divorced898.90%Widow616.10%Total1000100% Look at the chart, we can find married easiest to credit from HSBC, about 56% loaners are married. And single easier take out a loan than divorced and widow. It was indicating that the HSBC has chosen to loan to who has complete family, which emphasis on sta

20、bility.b. Pie chart of children of loanerchildrenpeoplepercentage041442%119920%215816%311511%4606%5404%6151% Look at the chart, we can found the loaners of no children easiest to take out a loan from HSBC, while the loaners of a child and the loaners of two children not easy to loan from HSBC. The c

21、hart was indicating that the children of more and more difficult access to loan. If family has some children, it would has some press in family, so bank dont like loan to the people like that.c. The bar chart of genderGendertotalfemale496male504 Look at the bar chart, we can find the no impact of ge

22、nder on loans. Question five: Using “income” as the key variable for RBCC, calculates the mean, median, mode, quartile, and measure of dispersion of data. We calculate the mean is $49,481, and the median is $49518, the mode is 65311.we can get some information from that, such as they level of income

23、 and the capacity of purchasing. Skew, Because of the mean<median, so it belonged to the left-skew And the max is $89489, the mix is $9118. Then we can get the range is 80371. So it can tell us that their income is not equality, so the company will face the risk. We can calculate the standard dev

24、iation, because of their means is $49,418, the standard deviation is 18586.34, Because of different marital status has different mean, so we compare single and divorced, CV(single)=0.19, CV(divorced)=0.08. CV (divorced) < CV (single). So we can get the conclusion that because of the data of incom

25、e, it has not z-score, so the bank can get more profit. Through the analysis the data, we find the kurtosis is -1.02219063; it can represent the mild of their income Through the calculating and analysis, we assumption x=divorced and y=widowed that they have 48, so we can get the result R=0.08, it wa

26、s not nearly 1, it has not connect.Question six: Using the appropriate set of data, you will be required to create the histogram? 接收频率累积 %500000.00%1000020.20%15000131.50%20000334.80%250006010.80%300006917.70%350008826.50%400008334.80%450008743.50%500007350.80%550007858.60%600008166.70%650008174.80%

27、700008783.50%750007390.80%800005095.80%850003699.40%900006100.00%其他0100.00% From the chart we can find the people which income about $45000 is easier to take out a loan from HSBC. Through analysis the chart the people which income between 35000 to 75000 is main loaner to loan from HSBC and other inc

28、ome not easier to loan from HSBC. The bank cans choice to loan to people which between 35000 to 75000, because of it easy to take back.Task 2: Application Statistics Question one Due to economic going to down from 2008, the commercial bank has been decline for a period. In an attempt by commercial b

29、anks to raise revenue, many banks increase the service charge, typically between $10 to $20. According to commission of banks, about 90% of commercial banks charge the customer fees when applying for the loan or opening accounts. a. You select a random sample of 5 commercial banks in China. Assume t

30、he number of the 5 commercial bank charging service feels distributed as binomial random distribution. What are the mean and standard deviation of the distribution b. compute the probability that of the 5 banks: 1. exactly one bank charges service fee 2. two or fewer banks charge service fee3. three

31、 or more banks charge service feeAnswer: a. From the question, we can find sample size is 5, and probability of success is 0.9, mean=5*probability, the standard deviation=. So we can get the mean is 4.5, the variance is 0.45,and the standard deviation is about 0.67. b:The result is:binomial probabil

32、ities table x p(x)01E-0510.0004520.008130.072940.3280550.59049 It has a bank to receive the services fee that's probability is 0.00045, from this we can find has increased the cost of management, it may be reduce its competitiveness, it would lose the advantage of competitive.If there are two or

33、 fewer banks charge service fee, their probability is 0.0081, because of their probability is very small, if they want to improve their services fee, they need to build better services for customers or other advantages to different to other banks. When there are three or more banks charge service fe

34、e, lots of consumers can accept this fact, their probability is 0.073, the consumer would pay the services fee to bank, and the government can agree this term.Banks charge service fees, and it has two different ways, receive or not receive, moreover, these two cases are mutually exclusive events, an

35、d the sum probability of two cases is 1. Besides, the binomial distribution is belonged to multiple. So it conform all the standards about Bernoulli experimentsQuestion two HSBC share in Hong Seng Index , the number of shares traded daily on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is freferred to as the volume

36、 of trading. On July 30, 2009, 1.39 billion shares of stock were traded. Theis volume to trading is near the mean volume for the Hong Seng Index. Assume that the number of share traded on Hong Seng Index is noraml random distribution with mean 1.4 billion and a standard deviation of 0.15 billion. Fo

37、r a randomly selected day, what is the probability that the volume of trading on the Hong Seng Index is :a. below 1.8 billion b. below 1.2 billion c. above 1.0 billion Answer: From the condition, we can know that they are normal distribution, so it has the characteristic, their average are equals wi

38、th media, and they are uniform, their normal distribution is bell distribution. X billionzpxpzBelow 1.82.6666670.996170.99617Below 1.2-1.333330.0912110.091211Above 1-2.666670.003830.003830.992339Below 1.8 billionBelow 1.2 billionAbove 1.0 billion Question threeIn scenario, the following data represe

39、nt the monthly service fee in dollars if a customer saving account falls below the minimum $ 2000 balance for a sample of 10 banks for direct deposit customer.12, 10, 10, 12, 15, 15, 12, 12, 20, 10 a. construct a 95% confidence interval for the population mean monthly service fee in dollars if a cus

40、tomers account balance falls below the minimum required balance Answer:When calculate the z-value, we can get the number must greater than 30, but in this process, their number is 10, so we can use the T value to get the level of confidence. We can through the to calculate the confidence level. We t

41、o analysis the excel can get the result is mean is 12.8 and standard deviation is 3.12So we can defined the =12.8 s= 3.12, from the table, we can know that t=2.26, , according to the , we can get the their confidence level is 12.8-2.26*(3.12/)12.8+2.26*(3.12/)=10.5715.03. From this we can get the co

42、nclusion their overall mean was in their interval, very money receive the services in the interval. Because their overall mean is 13.8. Step 1: The null hypothesis is that the services fee mean has not changed from its previous values of 13.8(Assume it is true)The alternative hypothesis is the oppos

43、ite of the null hypothesis. Since the null hypothesis is that the services fees means is 13.8, the alternative hypothesis is that services fee mean is not 13.8H1:>13.8(as to the bank receive the services fees)Step 2: You have to selected a sample of n=10, the level of significance is 0.025. Step

44、3: Because =is known, you use the normal distribution and the T-text statistic. Step 4: Since =0.025, the critical values of the T-text statistic are -2.26 and +2.26. The rejection region is T<-2.26 or Z>+2.26. The region is -2.26<T<+2.26.Step 5: You collect the data and services fee , t

45、he overall means is 13.8, the standard deviation is 3.12, we can use the Z=-1.01Step 6: Since Z=-1.01>-2.26, it belonged to the region, the consumer can agree to receive the services fees that was higher than 13.8. Task three: Business Decision Making From all information given, you need to consi

46、der the following problems:Question 1. What proportion of RBCCs customers go into default?Answer: We can use the pivot able to calculate the result.From the chart table, we can get the conclusion that its proportion 15%: 85%, from this proportion, we can see it, there will be 15% people who are defa

47、ult, their reputation will reduce and that would be affecting their credit in the future. The company should take measure to manage the people who are default. Otherwise, there will be a lot of bad debt of bank, which will directly affect the economic interests of banks.Question 2. What criteria sho

48、uld RBCC use when deciding which customers are good credit risks? If you were to recommend a set of variables for RBCC to use, which variables would you use?Answer: let us to arrange it, Income is first, because of this is the most is the basic condition for loans. The second is Debt, because of thi

49、s reflects the individual's external debt situation, the third is Credit Rating, because of it reflecting his own credibility, to see whether banks can accept, the fourth is Marital Status, because of it reflects the ability of family income, then is children and age, the finally is gender. Ques

50、tion 3. Once a loan is in default, what “script” should they use to try and collect the overdue debt?You should include in your report statements about Hypothesis-testing methodolgy , p-values, where appropriate.VariableDefinitionSubjectA number from 1 to 1000, identifying the customers (for confide

51、ntiality reasons, you arent allowed to see the customers actual names).Marital StatusThe customers marital status; Single, Married, Divorced, or Widowed.B&H Credit RatingThe credit rating from Boxwell & Haller; A, B, C, D, or E (A is the best; E is the worst).ChildrenThe number of children t

52、he customer has listed as dependents for tax purposes.AgeThe age of the customer in years.Income The customers most recently reported gross annual income.Debt The amount of debt owed by the customer, including the loan from RBCC.GenderMale or Female.July StatusThe status of the account as of last Ju

53、ly (either “Up to Date” or “Default”).ScriptIn the case of accounts that were in default as of last July, this indicates which “script” the collection department used when they called the customer. “A” indicates the “Responsibility” appeal, “B” indicates the “Credit Rating” appeal, and “C” indicates

54、 the “Legal” appeal.January StatusIn the case of accounts that were in default as of last July, this indicates whether the account was “Recovered” or still in “Default” as of the following January.Exhibit 1.Also:Answer: The most commonly used three scripts are A, B, C. “A” indicates the “Responsibil

55、ity” appeal; if the customer goes through the “A” appeal and still not willing to pay the debt then RBCC can reduce the customers credit level of rank. Script “B” indicates the “Credit Rating” appeal, if script “B” is also not working to the customer, RBCC can reduce the customers credit level. The third script is focuses on the threat of legal action referring as script “C”. Script “C” indicates the “Legal” appeal, which is that RBCC can request the court to assist for debt collection.Question 4. Evaluate each of the following loan app