新华信——Research on Promotion of Cable for Undergroun

1、SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信Beijing Sinotrust Marketing Research & Consulting Ltd.Address: F2, Jingan Center, 8#, Beisanhuan East Rd, Beijing Post Code: 100028Tel.: (86 10) 6460 6868Fax: (86 10) 6468 0450URL: Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Hong KongResearch on Promotion of Cable for Underground Application (II

2、) Made for ICA（China） Aug., 2002Project no.: 02INICAS012-034-007SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 1 -Content总目录nI：Background 5 -11nII： Executive Summary 12-23nIII： Acceptable Investment Quantity For Power Supply Bureau 24-27nIV： Different models of fund-rising in underground cabling constructio

3、n28-65nV： Two construction model to be focused：“Separation from tunnel and cable” &”Tunnel renting” 66-70nVI： Market Strategy Analysisi 70-73SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 2 -Part onePart one：project backgroundproject background8Background8Review of Research Phase I8Objective and Method

4、of Research Phase II第六部分SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 3 -BackgroundAs high quality conductor, copper always performs a very important role in cable field. In recent years, copper cable occupies 90% in the new-constructed underground cable by Chinas urban power supply bureauMeanwhile, overhe

5、ad line is still the major part in urban power supplying lines, underground cable takes only 10% of it. It is no doubt that to accelerate the the urban underground cabling brings huge potential for copper consumptionICA (China) attaches high importance on the the copper potential from underground ca

6、bling and the effective way to access it, SINOTRUST was entrusted to do market research on it to build ICAs market strategyTwo research phase was conducted by SINOTRUST(in 2001 and 2002 separately) ：4Phase I：feasibility to push underground cabling,copper potential , design making chain& key fact

7、ors, target market4Phase II: Effective way to push the underground cabling, market strategy in target marketSINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 4 -Research results retrospect of the first stage(2001)Research results retrospect of the first stage(2001) 8Research goal8Research approach8Main conclus

8、ionSINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 5 -Research goal of the first stage( 2001)Research goal of the first stage( 2001) Feasibility of pushing the underground cablingSituation & feature of underground cablingDecision chain and decision factor pushing the underground cablingCopper potential T

9、arget marketSINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 6 -Research approach of the first stage( 2001) Project EvaluationDesk researchExperts focus group Forecast of underground cabling in China Key factors and effective pushing methodUnderground cabling construction surveyIn-depth interview on 6key citi

10、esTelephone survey on 24 cities The current situation of Chinas urban construction of cable, the typical cases of influence factor, decision-making mechanism, characteristic difference, cable construction Condition and coverage of underground cabling in target citiesResponds：chief of power supply bu

11、reau and planning committee Targeting Area：shenzhen、qingdao、zhuhai、tianjin、wuhan、xian、chengdu、nanjingResponds：chief of technique and operating department in local power supply bureausExperts attended : State Power GroupBeijing Urban Construction GroupState Academy Power ScienceAssociation of China P

12、ower EnterprisesBeijing City Construction Planning InstituteBeijing Power Supply BureauPlanning & Designing Institute of Construction MinistrySINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 7 -The perfect opportunity to push The perfect opportunity to push 推动电缆入地存在良好的市场机遇推动电缆入地存在良好的市场机遇4中国城市化率突破30%，进入城市化

13、加速发展时期4在供电方式的选择上，中国的城市政府普遍倾向于电缆供电，关注市容市貌4个别城市已经形成了较好的电缆入地建设解决办法，为电缆供电的的规模推广提供了实践多数城市电缆化水平仅有多数城市电缆化水平仅有10-20%10-20%，电缆入地的潜在需求很大，由此带来，电缆入地的潜在需求很大，由此带来的电缆用铜潜力非常可观的电缆用铜潜力非常可观4按照目前城市发布的2001-2010年道路建设计划，城市需要铺设的电缆量非常可观，多数大中城市的市区电缆化率计划在70-80%，而目前的实际水平是10-20%42002-2006期间，如果所关注的20个重点城市能够实现架空线入地计划，电缆用铜的消费潜力将达到

14、239，040吨4根据城市需要改造的架空线的规模，建设的实力等因素，20个大中城市被选择为适宜优先推广架空线入地的地方：上海、北京、长春、昆明、武汉、厦门、青岛、成都、郑州、哈尔滨、齐齐哈尔、沈阳、大连、杭州、兰州、西安、南京、温州、烟台、宁波、第一阶段（第一阶段（2001）主要研究结论）主要研究结论-1SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 8 -目前城市电缆供电的应用比例还很低，电缆化率同需要的水平之间差距很目前城市电缆供电的应用比例还很低，电缆化率同需要的水平之间差距很大，主要的原因是由于供电企业和地方政府在出资问题上存在意见分歧大，主要的原因是由于

15、供电企业和地方政府在出资问题上存在意见分歧4供电部门是电缆入地的实际建设者，为了节省成本他们倾向于使用架空线，不愿意独自负担全部的电缆建设成本4地方政府的规划部门是电缆供电的积极支持者和倡导者，但是他们认为电力电缆不属于基础设施，因而不必由政府负担全部建设费用电缆建设与城市的道路规划建设结合在一起，城市的道路建设管理部门是电缆建设与城市的道路规划建设结合在一起，城市的道路建设管理部门是推动电缆入地的决策部分推动电缆入地的决策部分4目前城市规划与电力部门均没有系统的电缆建设规划，电缆入地是作为道路配套设施的内容之一，以单个项目的方式进行第一阶段（第一阶段（2001）主要研究结论）主要研究结论-2

16、SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 9 -研究发现，城市的土地储备制度水平对于电缆入地建设有支持作用，电缆研究发现，城市的土地储备制度水平对于电缆入地建设有支持作用，电缆入地建设较好的先进城市，其土地储备也比较发达入地建设较好的先进城市，其土地储备也比较发达4土地储备为城市提供了建设资金来源。电缆建设水平高的城市，多数是由于土地储备提供了部分或者全部电缆建设的费用4目前，超过1/3的城市开始实行土地储备和拍卖制度，可以预期未来电缆建设会得到更多的资金支持筹资办法是决定电缆入地水平最关键的因素。目前，已经形成了以青岛的筹资办法是决定电缆入地水平最关键的因

17、素。目前，已经形成了以青岛的“管线分离管线分离”方式和深圳市的方式和深圳市的“熟地熟地”方式为代表的两种出资方式方式为代表的两种出资方式4城市政府和供电局对于电缆供电的优越性有一致的认识，分歧在于是否应该由供电局负担全部建设费用4资金来源是电缆建设的核心问题，寻找到适当的筹资方式就解决了架空线入地的难题4目前，架空线入地比较成功的做法有：0青岛市：“管线分离”方式；0深圳市： “熟地”方式；第一阶段（第一阶段（2001）主要研究结论）主要研究结论-3SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 10 -Research background at the sec

18、ond stage( 2002) 8Research goal8Research content8Research approachSINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 11 -Research goal and research contents of second stage( 2002)Research goal：Probe into different schemes which solve the key fund-raising problem on the basis of studying in 2001, confirm the tar

19、get market during 2003-2006, make the corresponding popularization tactics. Research contents:4The power supply enterprise, to the understanding providing funds and proportion of sharing liked to accept 4Research different raising funds mode of typical city 4Fund-raising mode of construction of cabl

20、e that merit attention and popularized 4Target market research:beijing、shanghai 0With copper potentiality, tactics of advancing SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 12 -Research approach of the second stage( 2002) Research approach of the second stage( 2002) The power supply enterprise pays the wi

21、ll to investigate: Study the construction investment way of the cable and investment way which the power supply enterprise can accept at present in each city. 4Investigation method: Telephone poll4Responds：chief of technique and operating department in local power supply bureaus4Sample amount: 24 ci

22、tiesTypical urban survey of the mode that different to raise funds: Study the pluses and minuses of mode of raising funds differently, fund-raising choosing to be worth popularizing and building experience.4Investigation method: depth interview4Responds: Urban planning bureau, power supply bureau, r

23、oad builds management organization and overhead wire and enters the management organization of ground4Sample amount: 6 cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Dalian, Shenyang, ShenzhenSINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 13 -Research approach of the second stage( 2002) Research approach of the seco

24、nd stage( 2002) The policy support of the power supply of cable is studied: Study the power supply of cable in the feasibility which obtains the policy support and way to cooperate with government 4Investigation method: depth interview 4Responds:0Relevant state organ: Ministry of Construction, Minis

25、try of Land and Natural Resources.0Local government organs of the target market: Planning commission of Beijing, building committee, planning the committee,etc. 0Research institution and trade organize experts: Planning institute of Ministry of Construction, the planning and design institute of Beij

26、ing, fund research center of territory,etc.SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 14 -第二阶段研究主要结论第二阶段研究主要结论-1土地储备制度在国内普遍展开，城市政府增加了收入来源、对于电缆入地建设的支持能力增强。但是由于土地储备收入的支配在各个城市差异很大，一定时期内还无法争取到让所有城市为电缆入地划分固定的投入比例城市供电局表示不能独立负担电缆入地建设，愿意与城市政府共同分担，愿意分担的比例在1/3到1/2之间目前，架空线入地问题的解决，其决策实施中心在于各个城市而不是中央政府，但是建设部已经开始关注地下

27、电缆与其他共同管线问题，希望从政策上扫除阻碍地下管线共同建设的障碍，预计会形成有利于架空线入地建设的政策环境SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 15 -第二阶段研究主要结论第二阶段研究主要结论-2通过对于不同筹资建设方式的城市进行调查，理想的架空线入地方式要满足以下条件4把电力电缆建设当作城市的基础设施建设的一部分4共同分担，减轻政府和供电局负担4有制度化解决方式。变不规律的临时项目补贴为制度化的“国土基金”4有相应的组织和规范建设。设立专门的组织，例如“管线办”，专职负责入地建设4引入社会投资，变无偿为有偿使用，提高资金投入的热情以沈阳为代表的社会投

28、资建设管线的方式和深圳为代表的“国土基金”模式是目前比较成功和有代表性的电缆建设筹资方式SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 16 -第二阶段研究主要结论第二阶段研究主要结论-3北京市在奥运建设期间提供了架空线入地极大的有利条件4预计2003-2008年期间，所使用的电缆用铜将在40，000吨以上4北京市已经实施电费加价，以支持奥运建设期间的电力建设4虽然所需的建设资金已经解决，北京市的架空线入地仍然存在不确定性0 电费加价资金完全由供电局支配，而供电局对于电缆建设的热情并不高，无法保证建设资金用于架空线入地建设0 政府缺乏相应的机构来监督和推进架空线入

29、地，难以保证架空线入地的计划和实施SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 17 -Part three: the acceptable way and input in replace of overhead line with underground cable for the power supply bureau 8The key factor for low underground cabling level is that the power supply bureau burdens most of the input without shar

30、ing 8The power supply enterprise expresses willingness to share the construction expenses with the local government together, Unwilling to bear alone. 8The key discrepancy hindering the local government and power supply bureau to comprise is the : whether the power cable construction is part of infr

31、astructures or not?第二部分SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 18 -Summary: Practice shows, fund-raising problem can only be solved by sharing together , for both the local government and power supply bureau. nThe power supply bureau neither objects nor has enthusiasm to the overhead wire entering.If

32、 does not share and support , the cable that Most cities are willing to construct will not exceed 10 kilometers every year. By the look of investigation result, 1/3 districts that bear ground-entering expenses alone have a common characteristic .4 Currently, underground-entering level is far from wh

33、ich the local government requires. The cable rate is below 30% in most cities, large cities included too. 4 It seems hard to solve the conflict between local government and power supply bureau. The local planning committee carried severe punishment on the power supply bureau when they dont build und

34、erground cable as requested. But what they have done profit little, they lack effective way if their requirement is neglected. They cant collapse the “illegal overhead line” because which will harm the citizens daily life. Most underground cable was built during the national upgrading of urban power

35、 net. With the the termination power net upgrading, the speed of underground cabling slowly down simultaneously. Experience from Guangzhou shows us that it is not feasible for the government to burden all the input too. Practice shows that ,in constructing cable, local government share the input wit

36、h power supply bureau, is the only way第五部分SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 19 -在过去的几年里，借助城网改造，城市供电公司承担着在过去的几年里，借助城网改造，城市供电公司承担着大多数的电缆建设费用大多数的电缆建设费用有效城市数 29 个 类型 所占比例 具体城市 政府与供电局共同分担费用（管线分离式） 207% 厦门；洛阳；青岛；珠海；深圳；武汉 政府承担重点工程费用 310% 大同；杭州；秦皇岛；西安；大连；天津；成都；南京；北京 基本电力部门承担，开发商有部分分摊 483% 温州；台州；中山市；吉林；

37、南昌；苏州；福州；齐齐哈尔；佛山；贵阳；重庆；长春；昆明；济南 资料来源：新华信2002年市场调查20.7%31.0%48.3%政府与供电局共同分担费用（管线分离式）政府补贴部分重点工程费用，主要由供电局负担基本电力部门承担架空线入地的工作主要由供电部门在承担第二部分SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 20 -多数供电企业表示无力独自负担架空线入地，希望与地方政府共同承担多数供电企业表示无力独自负担架空线入地，希望与地方政府共同承担第二部分 愿意负担全部建设费用（愿意负担全部建设费用（2城市供电公司城市供电公司)不会出任何费用或仅可出很少费用不会出任何

38、费用或仅可出很少费用 （6城市供电公司）城市供电公司）愿意与政府共同分担（愿意与政府共同分担（16城市供电公司）城市供电公司）SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 21 -多数供电企业表示无力独自负担架空线入地，希望与地方政府共同承担多数供电企业表示无力独自负担架空线入地，希望与地方政府共同承担n只要市政府有规定, 供电局愿意承担,因为经济比较发达 ，有支付能力（1城市）n如果政府愿意投资给予支持,我们自身是愿意进行电缆入地工作的（1城市） 资料来源：2002年4-5月，新华信公司对于全国范围内24个城市的供电公司进行了随机采访，调查了对于架空线入地建设

39、问题的看法n电缆建设属于市政工程建设,应由政府承担 一部分费用（2城市）n电缆建设虽然是供电部门自己的事情,但是政府可以分担费用最好 （1城市）n电缆入地应该得到补偿，供电局只负责电缆的铺设问题 （1城市）n城网老化现象严重,供电局希望将更多的钱投入到电网改造上进行入地的话政府必须给予补偿（1城市） n自己出材料,政府建沟,如果是专用电缆沟,则愿意一次向政府支付50%建沟费,如和其他管线建在一起,则需要进行核算 （1城市）n认为电缆入地牵涉部门很多, 应有政府负责协调各部门间关系并给予补贴（1城市） n在架空线改造中，埋地电缆的管沟是市政设施,应该由政府建设交给供电局无偿使用（8城市） n城市

40、电缆建设完全由其上级单位省电力公司承担, 由市电力局自身不承担任何费用，所以完全承担也无所谓（1城市）第二部分愿意负担全部建设费用（愿意负担全部建设费用（2城市供电公司）城市供电公司）愿意与政府共同分担（愿意与政府共同分担（16城市供电公司）城市供电公司） SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 22 -相当一部分城市供电公司认为架空线入地的主要好处是美化市相当一部分城市供电公司认为架空线入地的主要好处是美化市容，对于电力公司而言没有很大益处，因而不愿意投入容，对于电力公司而言没有很大益处，因而不愿意投入n不主张电缆入地,原因,1投入大产出小,无收益,2把

41、架空塔建的美观些,线路架高,下边绿化好,也很美观,大规模入地,出现故障,抢修不便 （1城市） n电缆建设是国家电力公司的事情,地方供电企业和地方政府都不该出钱 （1城市） n供电企业经济实力有限，没有必要大规模建设埋地电缆 （1城市） n只愿意进行新电缆的入地工作,不愿意改建架空线，建的话需要政府自己想办法 （2城市） n电缆入地从根本上就是政府的事情,电缆入地只是会给供电局增加麻烦 ，当然应该由政府负责出资建设（1城市） 第二部分不会出任何费用或很少费用不会出任何费用或很少费用 （6城市供电公司）城市供电公司）SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 23

42、 -如果与政府分担架空线入地任务，供电局可以付多少费？如果与政府分担架空线入地任务，供电局可以付多少费？第二部分 愿意付电缆材料费（愿意付电缆材料费（4 城市供电公司）城市供电公司）可以承担一半以上可以承担一半以上 （7 城市供电公司）城市供电公司）只能负担只能负担1/3以下（以下（12城市供电公司）城市供电公司）SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 24 -架空线入地，供电公司愿意负担多少？架空线入地，供电公司愿意负担多少？ 类型一： 愿意负担一半以上费用 类型二：愿意负担电缆费用 类型三：只愿承担 1/3 的费用 佛山供电局 100% 乌鲁木齐供电局

43、 负责材料费 宜昌供电局 30% 厦门市供电局 100% 南昌供电局 可承受材料费用的 50-70% 烟台供电局 30% 贵阳供电局 75% 抚顺供电局 可出材料费 大连供电局 20% 重庆供电局 50% 兰州供电局 按长度计算,和其他租用管沟的部门平均分担费用 宝鸡供电局 30% 太原供电局 50% 合计：4 哈尔滨供电局 20% 济南供电局 50% 平顶山供电局 15% 秦皇岛供电局 40% 苏州供电局 20% 合计：7 西安供电局 20% 昆明供电局 0 福州供电局 0 宁波供电局 0 大同供电局 0 合计：12 第二部分SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地

44、推广研究- 25 -电力电缆是否属于基础设施，成为电力电缆是否属于基础设施，成为“架空架空”和和“埋地埋地”之间争论的焦点，之间争论的焦点，城市政府认为建电缆是供电的义务，而供电局则认为架空线入地属于公共城市政府认为建电缆是供电的义务，而供电局则认为架空线入地属于公共设施，需要得到城市的支持。设施，需要得到城市的支持。由于没有形成统一的认识，过去几年里，供电局一直承担着架空线改造的由于没有形成统一的认识，过去几年里，供电局一直承担着架空线改造的主要责任，这是造成城市的电缆建设水平低的重要原因之一主要责任，这是造成城市的电缆建设水平低的重要原因之一n城市规划与供电部门之间一直有下述的不一致认识：

45、4城市规划部门代表性看法：供电是企业，建设电缆是它自己的事情，政府没必要补贴4供电局代表性观点：供电是公共基础设施，政府应该给予补贴和扶持 架空绝缘线已经可以满足供电的需求，电缆供电太贵，没必要第二部分SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 26 -Section IV Case research: enlightenment of typical cities for construct overhead wire into underground cable8Shanghai: Confrontation between Overhead and Un

46、derground is resolved through institutionalization8Shenzhen: Bring cable construction into land reservation system8Dalian: Construction of underground cable requires the treatment of infrastructure8Guangzhou: Rebuilding of overhead wire should keep power supply enterprises within bounds of investmen

47、t together with the government8Shenyang: Exploration on pipeline management method transferring from grand-in-aid to business operation8Beijing: Increasing the price of power expenditure is only adoptable for financing method of Olympic Game projects第四部分SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 27 -Sha

48、nghai: Supervisory and management systems for underground cable construction are firstly established Cable length in Shanghai is nearly 13,000 km today including 35% of underground cable and 8,000 km of overhead wire. At present, above 700 km mainly of power cables are added each year. In central di

49、strict in Shanghai, cables of 35 KV are 1000 km including about 28% of cables which have operated for more than 40 years and cables of 10 KV are 2000 km including about 14% of cables which have operated for more than 40 years Shanghai municipal government has clearly shown its altitude of against ov

50、erhead wire and actively developed power cable construction. The main measures are:4New projects much adopt power cable which should be invested by developer and power supply bureau. The range of implementation has enlarged from urban districts to rural counties Municipal residence bureau recently w

51、orked out a stipulation for construction unit that newly constructed residential areas should lay underground cable. This stipulation pointed out that in case the completing cable design solution for power supply, telephone and cable TV of residential areas being constructed, which has clearly defin

52、ed to install overhead wire, should put on record to the residential bureau of local district and county and the power cable should be laid underground For those residents in Shanghai which has been completed and approved to install overhead cable while applying base code, residential bureau will un

53、dertake investigation and deal with coordinately. For those suburban residents out of loop lines, residential bureau will, according to the consumable level of these residents, fulfill the pipeline management measures gradually and let citizens there also far away from wires and cables4Overhead wire

54、s within downtown district should be buried underground along with the road rebuilding. Government will be in charge of construction of cable groove and power supply bureau of cable layout. Pipeline Office under the municipal administration bureau will supervise underground cable construction and pu

55、nish those who violate the stipulation according to local cable construction management supervision. From our survey, we can see that these measures are well received by power supply bureaus and pipeline supervision works are very effective第四部分上海SINOTRUST新新 华华 信信电力电缆入地推广研究电力电缆入地推广研究- 28 -Pipeline Of

56、fice in Shanghai provide us the beneficial exploration to resolve institutionally the confrontation between Overhead and UndergroundnUpon establishment of Pipeline Office, underground construction of overhead wire of the city has had its own organizational guarantee. The office listed the Overhead a

57、nd Underground confrontation which puzzled the government in past time into their own working content and carried out the works of following aspects:4Supervision and execution of underground construction of overhead wire. For those overhead which should be buried underground, Pipeline Office will ac

58、tively coordinate with power supply bureau and ensure the execution of underground bury. In case the coordination dont achieve effect, Pipeline Office has the right to bury the cable underground by itself and charge the expenditure to the responsible party according to the stipulation4Propagation wo

59、rk of underground construction of overhead wire. underground construction of overhead wire is not only the necessity of city development but also the necessary measure of excellent power supplying services. Through organizing systematic researches and propagation, Pipeline Office can raise the recog

60、nition of power supply bureaus for underground construction of overhead wire and propel the smooth progress of underground construction of overhead wire4Research and find the most suitable underground construction of overhead wire measuresnEnlightenment of underground construction of overhead wire management from Pip