taiwan财务管理_lecture8(ch8)(PPT 18页)

,Irwin/McGraw-Hill,Chapter8,FundamentalsofCorporateFinanceThirdEdition,ProjectAnalysis,BrealeyMyersMarcusslidesbyMatthewWill,Irwin/McGraw-Hill,TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,2001,TopicsCovered,HowFirmsOrganizeTheirInvestmentProcessSome“WhatIf”QuestionsSensitivityAnalysisBreakEvenAnalysisFlexibilityinCapitalBudgetingDecisionTreesOptions,CapitalBudgetingProcess,CapitalBudget-Thelistofplannedinvestmentprojects.TheDecisionProcess1-Developandrankallinvestmentprojects2-Authorizeprojectsbasedon:GovtregulationProductionefficiencyCapacityrequirementsNPV,CapitalBudgetingProcess,CapitalBudgetingProblemsConsistentforecastsConflictofinterestForecastbiasSelectioncriteria(NPVandothers),HowToHandleUncertainty,SensitivityAnalysis-Analysisoftheeffectsofchangesinsales,costs,etc.onaproject.ScenarioAnalysis-Projectanalysisgivenaparticularcombinationofassumptions.SimulationAnalysis-Estimationoftheprobabilitiesofdifferentpossibleoutcomes.BreakEvenAnalysis-Analysisofthelevelofsales(orothervariable)atwhichthecompanybreakseven.,SensitivityAnalysis,ExampleGiventheexpectedcashflowforecastslistedonthenextslide,determinetheNPVoftheprojectgivenchangesinthecashflowcomponentsusingan8%costofcapital.Assumethatallvariablesremainconstant,excepttheoneyouarechanging.,SensitivityAnalysis,Example-continued,NPV=$478,SensitivityAnalysis,Example-continuedPossibleOutcomes,SensitivityAnalysis,Example-continuedNPVCalculationsforPessimisticInvestmentScenario,NPV=($121),SensitivityAnalysis,Example-continuedNPVPossibilities,BreakEvenAnalysis,ExampleGiventheforecasteddataonthenextslide,determinethenumberofplanesthatthecompanymustproduceinordertobreakeven,onanNPVbasis.Thecompanyscostofcapitalis10%.,BreakEvenAnalysis,BreakEvenAnalysis,AnswerThebreakevenpoint,isthe#ofPlanesSoldthatgeneratesaNPV=$0.Thepresentvalueannuityfactorofa6yearcashflowat10%is4.355Thus,AnswerSolvingfor“PlanesSold”,BreakEvenAnalysis,OperatingLeverage,OperatingLeverage-Thedegreetowhichcostsarefixed.DegreeofOperatingLeverage(DOL)-Percentagechangeinprofitsgivena1percentchangeinsales.,OperatingLeverage,Example-Acompanyhassalesoutcomesthatrangefrom$16milto$19mil,Dependingontheeconomy.Thesameconditionscanproduceprofitsintherangefrom$550,000to$1,112,000.WhatistheDOL?,Flexibility&Options,DecisionTrees-Diagramofsequentialdecisionsandpossibleoutcomes.DecisiontreeshelpcompaniesdeterminetheirOptionsbyshowingthevariouschoicesandoutcomes.TheOptiontoavoidalossorproduceextraprofithasvalue.TheabilitytocreateanOptionthushasvaluetha