波士顿--互联网战略资料.ppt

STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS Real Tech Conference Peter Stanger -2-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm E-COMMERCE IS DEAD “E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce” - The Industry Standard, April 2000 “Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust” - F, April 2000 “Can you build a brand online selling third-party goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yes” - Bryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read “The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at A - if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever seen.” - Warren Packard, Draper Fisher Jurvetson -3-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm TOM SIEBEL CEO, Siebel Systems “If you cant generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.” “On the B2B exchange side, I dont think anyone will survive. They are all gone.” -4-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONG Travelocity B Expedia D E Priceline eBay Amazon $123B Webvan eBay Amazon All Other $11.4B -5-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm IS THE REVOLUTION OVER? July 28, 1794 -6-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS 1860 - 18901895 - 1925 -7-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK 120 100 80 40 60 20 0 177017801775 Index Workers per bushel of manufactured cotton England 1770-83 Price of the Model T touring car 1908-20 191019151920 198519901995 Price of CPU computing power $/MIPS 1982-95 Lower processing costs . with increased throughput . Fiber capacity Time 105 0 104 103 102 and powerful network economics 0 20 40 60 80 100 012345678910n Value increases as the square of connections Profit Loss Value Cost 02v 6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90v n(n-1)v F+0F+ 2cF+ 3cF+ 4cF+ 5cF+ 6cF+ 7cF+ 8cF+ 9cF+ 10cF+ nc Value, cost Connections Cost increases linearly with connections lower storage costs . $/MB Average HD size in PC at retail (GB) Harddrive size (GB) Cost ($/MB) -8-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm LONG DISTANCE Wholesale (Network) Design/build Operations/maintenance Resale/interconnection Retail Sales/marketing Account management Billing Retail Sales/marketing Account management Billing Network Design/build Operations/maintenance Resale/interconnection Retail Retail Network intelligence Value added services Wholesale service creation Network intelligence Value added services Network management/dispatch Wholesale PHARMACEUTICALS ResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistration Manufac- turing Sales SEC filings; Media Metrix and Harris Interactive data; industry association reports; analyst reports Note: Excludes financial brokerage 11.5 15.2 North American Business-to- Consumer Revenues ($B) 20.6 +132% +66% +46% 26.7 44.5 Online channel 10% share in several categories -11-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm CATALOGUERS ARE WINNING EBIT Margin in % of Revenues 1999 2000 Source: The State of Online Retailing 2.0, 3.0, 4.0; S Surveys conducted by The Boston Consulting Group -12-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm ADVANTAGE INCUMBENTS Online Retailing Ds Marketplaces CLECs Cataloguers GE, Big 3 ILECs/IXCs B2B Telecom -13-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm RENAISSANCE OF THE FUNDAMENTALS IPO valueCash flow Growth = valueProfitable growth = value Customer acquisitionSegmentation Internet timeCompetitive advantage -14-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm THE VAST MAJORITY OF CHANGE AND TRANSFORMATION LIES AHEAD Illustrative view of transforming forces, Circa 2010 Technology) Globalization Deregulation Electronic commerce Source: BCG analysis Deregulation and globalization index (1999=100) Technology and electronic commerce index (1999=100) -15-RealTech Conf-PS-June01-tor-lm A PERSPECTIVE ON OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE: LEVERAGE YOUR ASSETS! Asset turns (sales/ assets) Cash flow margin in % of sales (%) Retail Construction Machinery Automobile Chemicals UtilitiesReal Estate Airline Auto parts Aerospace Telecom Source: BCG Analysis -16-RealTech Conf-PS