风险管理讲义.ppt

1、1,CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT信贷风险管理,HSBC 汇丰银行,2,CREDIT CULTURE信贷文化,Risk averse given Banks high gearing and thin margin 倾向低风险，由于银行高负债和低利息差 Proper goals and measures with controls 适当的目标和措施及控制 The Line takes primary (or joint) responsibility of the credit decisions 前线部门对贷款决定负主要（或共同）责任 Burden of proof on th

2、e Line 证明应贷款责任在于前线部门 Never feel embarrassed to ask “dumb” questions 不用担心问“愚笨”的问题,3,CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT信贷风险管理,Prerequisite:先决条件 Senior managements support (positive intervention?) 高层管理的支持（积极干预？） People (technical capability, integrity and inter-personal skills) 人员（技术能力、人格和人际交往能力） Organization and

3、System 组织及系统 Attribute:特征 Independent 独立性 No bottom-line responsibility 没有盈利责任 Professional 专业性 Firm and fair 坚定和公正,4,STRUCTURE AND APPROVAL PROCESS结构和认证程序,Board of Directors 董事会,行政总裁（总部） GHQ CEO,APH CEO 行政总裁（亚太区）,AMH GM总经理 （香港及中国大陆）,Line前线部门,信贷总经理 GM Credit,CCO首席信贷官,HD Credit 信贷部门主管,Concurrence 认同,

4、Approval 审批,Approval 审批,Approval审批,Country Risk/Bank Risk 国家风险/银行风险 Market Risk/Credit Risk 市场风险/信用风险,Market Risk/Credit Risk 市场风险/信用风险,Credit 信用,5,ALTERNATIVES选择,Centralized vs Decentralized集权/分权 Individual vs Committee (composition and decision making process)个人/委员会（债务组成及决策过程） Factors to consider:

5、 需要考虑的因素 Individual / Collective Decision / Responsibility 个人/集体决策/责任 Senior managements trust 高层管理的信任 Quality of staff (at centre and in the line) 员工的素质 （管理人员和一线职员） Specialization of staff 员工专业化 Effectiveness of internal control system 内部控制系统的功效 Quality of service (e.g. turnaround time) 服务的质量（例如：报废

6、项目时间） Others (fraud prevention etc.) 其他（防范欺诈等）,6,Structure and Account Cycle结构及客户信贷周期,Policy/政策,Approval审批,Risk Monitoring 风险监督,Recovery追偿,Head of CRM信贷风险管理部,Loans贷款,Unhealthy loans 不良贷款,Review回顾,Review回顾,7,Credit Policy, Guidelines and Procedures Manual 信贷政策，指南及程序手册,Key business objectives 主要业务目标 S

7、tructure and Responsibility 结构及职责 Economic Outlook 经济预期 Sectoral Analysis 行业分析 Business Strategy and Focus 业务战略和重点 Risk Assessment and Credit Appetite 风险评估和信贷偏好 Lending Guidelines 贷款指南 Credit Products, Procedures and Advice 信贷产品、程序和建议,8,CREDIT POLICY信贷政策,Market positioning and risk appetite 市场定位和风险偏

8、好 Return 回报 Private Bank Commercial BankSubprime Lender 私人银行 商业银行 次级贷款人 -Large corporate 大型企业 -Middle market 中端市场 -Small business 小型企业 -Consumer 消费者,Risk 风险,9,MARKET SEGMENTATION CREDIT TOOLS 市场细分信贷工具,Corporate Banking - Large corporate - Judgemental (plus Rating, KMV, MRA) 公司金融-大型公司-主观判断（加评分，KMV, M

9、RA) Commercial Banking Medium sized corporate Judgemental 公司金融-中型企业-主观判断 Business Banking Small business Scoring 商务理财-小型企业-评分 Personal Financial Services Consumer Scoring 个人金融服务-消费者-评分,10,Delinquency Rates, All Banks, SA (USA),贷款不良率,美国所有银行,0,2,4,6,8,10,12,14,91Q1,91Q3,92Q1,92Q3,93Q1,93Q3,94Q1,94Q3,9

10、5Q1,95Q3,96Q1,96Q3,97Q1,97Q3,98Q1,98Q3,99Q1,99Q3,00Q1,00Q3,01Q1,01Q3,Residential * 住房贷款,Commercial * 商业房地产贷款,C&I Loans 工商贷款,Total Loans & Leases 贷款和租赁总额,%,11,Charge-Off Rates, All Banks, SA (USA) 冲销率 所有银行 美国,0.0,0.5,1.0,1.5,2.0,2.5,3.0,91Q1,91Q3,92Q1,92Q3,93Q1,93Q3,94Q1,94Q3,95Q1,95Q3,96Q1,96Q3,97Q1

11、,97Q3,98Q1,98Q3,99Q1,99Q3,00Q1,00Q3,01Q1,01Q3,Commercial * 商业房地产贷款,C&I Loans 工商贷款,Total Loans & Leases 贷款及租赁总额,%,Residential * 住房贷款,12,Loan Quality in HK 香港地区贷款质量,-10%,-5%,0%,5%,10%,15%,20%,NPL % 不良贷款比例,Credit card charge-off ratio (annualised) 年信用卡冲销比例,Mortgage Delinquency Rate 住房贷款不良率,Real GDP (ye

12、ar on year % change) 年实际GDP变化率,13,CREDIT RISK ASSESSMENT信贷风险评估,Corporate and Commercial Banking 公司金融 （大型和中型企业） Operating Risks运营风险 Borrower Grade 借款人评级 Financial Risks (including Projection)(PD) 财务风险（包括财务预测）（违约机率） Account Conduct 来往状况 Security and Facility Structure抵押品、贷款结构及评级Facility Grade 设施评级 (Pr

13、operty + Marketable Securities) （财产和可交易的证券）,14,Small Business 小型企业,More vulnerable to economic downturn 易受经济下滑的影响 Information problematic (low financial transparency and reliability) 信息问题（财务信息透明度及可信度不高） High operating risks (relatively weak in management skills) 高运营风险（较弱的管理能力） Characteristics of the

14、 Scorecard 记分卡的特征 Companys financials 公司财务状况 Companys credit history and behavior 公司信用历史和表现 Companys attributes (age, sector, size etc) 公司性质（成立时间的长短、所属行业、规模等） Owners scores 公司所有者的评分,15,英国小型公司主要业务的设立与终止,设立,千/每季度,终止,16,Consumer 消费贷款,Criteria Based Lending 根据准则所进行的信贷 More commonly for secured products,

15、 e.g. mortgage, car loans, HP and loans secured by liquid assets 多用于担保产品，例如：住房贷款、汽车贷款、租赁及用流动资产担保的贷款 Security coverage 抵押品/贷款 比例 Income coverage 收入/还款 比例,17,Jun-00,Aug-00,Oct-00,Dec-00,Feb-01,Apr-01,Jun-01,Aug-01,Oct-01,Dec-01,Feb-02,0,50,100,150,200,250,300,Mortgage Delinquency Rate 住房贷款不良率,Unemploy

16、ment rate 失业率,Residential Price Index (1989=100) (RHS) 住房价格指数 （以1989年为100）,18,Credit Card Quality 信用卡质量,3.00%,4.00%,5.00%,6.00%,7.00%,8.00%,9.00%,Dec-98,Mar-99,Jun-99,Sep-99,Dec-99,Mar-00,Jun-00,Sep-00,Dec-00,Mar-01,Jun-01,Sep-01,Dec-01,Mar-02,-,1,000,2,000,3,000,4,000,5,000,6,000,7,000,No. of Bankr

17、uptcy Petitions 破产申请,Credit card charge-off ratio (annualised) 年信用卡冲销率,Unemployment rate 失业率,Bankruptcy Petitions (RHS) 破产申请 （RHS),19,Scoring 评分,Rank ordering 分级 Application and Behavioral Scores 申请信贷和行为评分 Generic and Customized Scores 通用评分和专用评分 Credit card, personal loans, etc 信用卡，个人贷款等,20,CREDIT R

18、ISK MONITORING信贷风险监督,Management Information 管理信息 (CPAN, IBIS, REMIND, SCOPE, etc) Grade classification / migration 评级分类/变动情况 Score distribution / flow rate 分值分布/流动率,21,PRICING STRATEGY定价战略,1. Interest margin: hurdle rates, e.g. bonds. 利率边际：障碍率，例如：债券 2. RORA: return on the overall relationship 总体关系的回

19、报 3. EP: cost of capital 经济利润：资本成本 Factors to consider: 考虑因素 PD (Borrowers grade) 违约机率 LGD 损失比率 Term 年期 Cost of capital 资本成本 Competition 竞争 Business potential 发展潜力,22,DEBT RECOVERY (1)贷款收回 （1）,Objective 目标 Risk vs Relationship 风险 或 关系 Strategy 战略 Rehabilitation OR Exit 贷款康复或退出,23,DEBT RECOVERY (2)贷款

20、收回 (2),Workout - Factors for success 债务重组 - 成功的因素 -legal system (Scheme of Arrangement, Individual Voluntary Arrangement, Bankruptcy Law) - 法律体系 (债务安排计划、个人自愿安排、破产法） -professional support (lawyer, accountant, financial advisor, asset search agent, debt collector) - 专业支持 （律师、会计师、财务顾问、资产搜寻代理、债务追偿人） - customer self-rescue (transparency, commitment and cooperation) - 客户 - 自救措施 （透明、承担与合作） - multi-bank - supportive, expeditious and equitable the Hong Kong Approach - 多头银行 -支持态度、迅速及公平 （香港原则）,24,DEBT RECOVERY (3)贷款收回（3）,Feedback 回馈 - le