高盛-中国卡车和发动机：中国绿色卡车运输的未来-2024-12-商用车

32.4万辆（渗透率约为三分之一）。这一提相似之处，也有细微差别。我们预计电动重卡在短途物流、工程和公），用户场景的复杂性和多样性，整体而言重卡市场的加速可能更为和缓。类似，电动化降低了准入门槛并压平成本曲线，从而颠覆了重卡市场的竞争。跨行业的新进企业（如三一和徐工，中国最大的两家工程机械集高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系,并且继续高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系,并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此,投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突,不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯-因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息,见信息披露附录,或参阅/research/hedge.htmI。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师34 信息披露附录clean/newenergyHDTdemand(kunits)Penetration%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Penetration%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%60050040030036%20031%100082%59%2030EBEVpenetration:Overall:32%40-50%inshort-haul2030ELNGpenetration:Overall:27%95%inlong-haulHDTdomesticdemand-BEV oHDTdomesticdemand-BEV oClean/newenergyHDT(RHS)HDTdomesticdemand-FCV oNewenergyPV(RHS)400-2024E2025E2027E2029E2030E2024E2025E2027E2029E2030E 2030ETotal+289k324k32%275k27%324k32%275k27%410k41%2016Total+121k-219k36k14k2%+139k+36k6%14k2%153k 25%645k98%426k69%DieselHDTLNGHDTElectricHDT2030ETotal2023Total8,843k+1,156k 2023Total8,843k+1,156k 5k,1,219kOthers-1,707k+1,215k13%64k8,137k92%643k7%1,858k64k8,137k92%643k7%1,858k20%6,430k68%Innercirlce:ICEInnercirlce:ICEOutercircle:NEVnVolkswagenToyotaGeelyCheryChangAnGACnGeneralMotorsMercedesTesla.SeresGreatWallOthers21%21%35%23%4%FAW11%12%Sinotruk11%12%3%20%20%10%ShaanxiHDMotorDongfeng3%20%20%10%uSanyXCMGnYutong14%Foton7%11%nGeely11%7%19%18%18%Zoomlion19%18%18%nCLWOthers2024Edomesticsalesvolumebreakdownbypower2024Edomesticsalesvolumebreakdownbypower23%23%32%42%32%25%27%29%55%41%29%52%2030E(base)2030E2030E(base)2030E(best)DieselLNGBEV2030E2030EpowertrainmixassumptMedium-haul~20%Medium-haul~20%oflogistics~30%oflogisticsShort-haul~50%ofShort-haul11M24BearBaseBest11M24BearBaseBest11M24BearBaseBestconstruction~25%oftotalHDT11M24BearBaseBest...beforefuelcelltechnologycommercializesHeavy-cargotransportGreenPass(foragriculturalproducts)AutomobiletransportExpressdeliveryElectrificationispreferredforshort-haulwithflexibleroutes(~25%)ixedConstructionixedDifferenttechnolgieco-existintheshorscouldt-to-FMiningtransportFMiningtransportmedium-haulusescenariosConcretetransportCoaltranspElectrificationisperfectforshort-haulwithfixedroute(~25%)ortExclusive-linedHazardouseliverychemicalstransportchemicalstransportTrunktransportAggregatestransportAggregatestransportContainertra●nsport●Homeappliances/machinerytransportytransportInter-citydeInter-citydeliveryibleUtilitytrucksibleUtilitytruckslex<200km(<200km(Short)>500km(Long)Tripdistance200-500km(Medium)资料来源：CATARC,CFLP,ThinkerCar,高盛全球投资研究部50%47%50%Electrification(%)45%Electrification(%)45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10% 5%0%36%28%15%12%5%5%6%5%5%o1%o20182019202020212022202311M24HDTPV25%20%15%10%5%0%Construction,22%Utility,11%Overall,12%Logistics,10%2019202020212022202311M24Innercircle:201911%Outercircle:11M2411%nVolkswagen24%4%20%22%GeneralMotorsHonda24%4%20%22%4%ToyotaNissanGeely13%14%4%7%7%8%GreatWallChangAnHyundai13%14%4%7%7%8%7%SAIC7%7%9%Others9%9%Outercircle:11M24Outercircle:11M24BYDGeelyBYDGeelyGMTeslanChangAnLiAutoGACSeresnCheryGreatWallOthers22%33%21%47%7%5%3%4%8%4%9%4%6%7%4%47%7%5%3%4%8%4%9%4%6%7%4%6%Innercircle:2021OuterInnercircle:2021Outercircle:11M24DongfengDongfengSinotrukFotonShaanxiAutoZoomlionJACXCMGnSanySAICOthers19%14%21%4%2%2%19%10%7%10%13%11%14%20%16%InnercircleInnercircle:2021Outercircle:11M2412%18%XCMGOutercircle:11M2412%18%3%15%3%5%34%7%SinotrukuYutong5%34%7%6%18%ShaanxiHeavyDutyMotor6%18%nGeelyFoton4%15%4%6%3%8%2%11%7%10%DongfengZoomlionOthers6%3%8%2%11%7%10%》》20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%17.7%#210.6%#39.6%#45.5%#75.4%5.5%#75.4%#8XCMGAutoFAWSinotrukShaanxiFotonDongfeng45040035030025020015050-◆7%22375◆3%308◆2%222◆1%37291Sinotruk-HDTShaanxiXCMGAutoFAW8%7%6%5%4%3%2%0%DiscountedASP(kRmb)ASPcut(kRmb)%ofASPcut(RHS)2522kRmb20kRmb20591-(1)(5)(5)(10)Sinotruk-HDTShaanxiXCMGHDTFAWFotonDaimlerDongfengCV(35,000)(30,000)(25,000)(20,000)(15,000)(10,000)(5,000)-5,00010,00034monthstodepletSegmentEBITDA(mnRmb)Minitruck,2.1%LDT,6.3%MDT,Minitruck,2.1%HDT,3.0%Bus,1.6%Passengervehicle,86.6%Others,9%HDT,46%Passengervehicle,45% HDT,3.0%Others,1.0%Passengervehicle,88.3%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%13%10%13%10%51%76%77%36%5%16%9%10%18%71%COHCNOxPMBusMinitruckaLDT-MDTaHDT100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0% 2%7%6%10%9%4%5%12%25%32%98%93%94%98%93%94%90%91%87%69%55%2016201720182019202020212022202311M24OthersNEV(FCV)NEV(Battery)NaturalgasDieselJan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24DieselLNGNEV(Battery)Others350%306%yoychg%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%28%-6%-2%-9%104%35%2%9%28%-6%-2%-9%104%35%2%9%2%155%151%139%-35%-28%-47%-100%OverallDieselLNGElectric20231H243Q24Oct-Nov24100%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%12%12%22%41%87%76%48%10%LogsticsHDTConstructionHDTUtilityHDTDieselLNGNEV(Battery)NEV(FCV)OthersDieselLNGDiesel>LNG>BEV>FCVInfrastructureavailabilityRangeEmissionFCV=BEV>LNG>DieselCapexDiesel>LNG>BEV>FCVOpexoverlife-cycleBEV>LNG>FCV>DieselRevenuegeneration(effectiveweightload)FCV=Diesel>LNG>BEV8promotethetrade-i420TimelineofTimelineoflocalgovernmentactionplanHenanTianjinJiangsuJiangxiTibetJul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Other,7%States,2%UnitedStates,2%Europe,20%China,71%Truckelectrification(%)3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%Truckelectrification(%)3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%1.6%0.1%0.1%ChinaEuropeUnitedStatesOtherkRmb900800700600500400300200100020232024Electric20232024ElectricHDT(350kwh)DieselHDT(ChinaVI)LNGHDT(ChinaVI)4000 o24020192020202120222023BatterypackpriceAdditionalinvestmentpaybackperi20%ELectrificationpenetrationrate(%)18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%2016201720182019202020212022202311M24Logistics--Constructionandutility20%Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22JanJan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24CAPEX(203)CAPEX(78)OPEX352(kCAPEX(203)CAPEX(78)OPEX352(kRmb)OthercostOthercostMaintenancecostMaintenancecostElectricHDT'sMaintenancecostMaintenancecostElectricHDTcouldsave~Rmb0.8/kmfuelcostduetobetterfueleconomicsSavingsintollfeesandlaborcostsSavingsintollfeesandlaborcostsloadisElectricHDTcouldsave~Rmb0.8/kmfuelcostduetobetterfueleconomicsSavingsintollfeesandlaborcostsSavingsintollfeesandlaborcostsbatterypacksElectricHDThasmuchlessmaintenanceitemsElectricHDT'sloadElectricHDThasmuchlessmaintenanceitemsElectricHDThasmuchElectricHDThasmuchlessmaintenanceitemssubsidyforsubsidyforeHDTandnosubsidyforLNGHDTcurrentlydieselHDT'sduetotheRevenue(104)heavyweightofRevenue(104)packsElectricHDT costsRmb200k+FuelcostElectricHDTcouldsave~Rmb0.3/kmFuelcostElectricHDTcouldsave~Rmb0.3/kmfuelcostduetobetterfueleffiiencyaccounttheCapex(173)SubsidyexemptionCapex(173)Subsidyvehiclepurchase tax ElectricHDTcostsRevenueRmb170k+RevenueRmb170k+(or50%+)morethanLNGHDTtakingintoaccounttheexemptionofvehiclepurchasetaxSubsidyforelectricHDTisvehiclepurchasetaxhigherthanChinaVIdieselHDT'sFuelcost555Life-cycleprofit-ICE379Life-cycleFuelcost555Life-cycleprofit-ICE379Life-cycleprofit-BEV743CapexSubsidy(233)306244-additionalinvestmentpayadditionalinvestmentpaybackperiod=24months\2022ASPIndustryaveragedailymileage2030EASPCurrentASPCurrentASP56%BEVASPpremiumDailymileage(non-subsidy)48%48%33%26%14%2019202020212022202311M24ConcretemixingtrucksaCleaningtruckaDumptruckTractor40%20%30%60%50%10%0%40002027E2028E2029E2030EAdditionalinvestmentpaybackperiod2027E2028E2029E2030EAdditionalinvestmentpaybackperiod(RHS)35035%30025030025020050025%units%20%units%15%10%5%0%ElectricHDTdomesticsalesvolumePenetrationrate(RHS)0.00.80.750%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%LNG/DieselpriceLNGpenetration(RHS)additionalinvestmentpaybackadditionalinvestmentpaybackperiod=12months1,600DailyDailymileage(km)1,200UpperlimitofdailyUpperlimitofdailymileage8006004002023industryaveragedailymileage202220020232025E10M2024-LNG/Dieselpriceratio资料来源：ICE,国家统计局,NYMEX,BP,CFLP(kRmb)CAPEX(144)OPEX872 LNGHDTdoesnotneedLNGHDTdoesnotneedadd(~Rmb0.1/km)LNGHDTis~RmbexpensivethandieselHDT Revenue-149LNGHDT Revenue-149LNGHDT'sloadis~1t-49subsidYLNGHDTcould-65save~Rmb0.7/kmRmb65ksubsidyforpurchasing(Rmb65ksubsidyforpurchasing(orc.30%)fuelcostduetocheaperLNGdieselHDT'sheavyweightHDT0.800.700.600.700.600.500.400.3000.670.540.520.560.512021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E(kunit)30035%25020050030%25%20%15%10%5%0%LNGtrucksalesvolumeLNGtruckpenetration(RHS)subsidy(subsidy(tollfreesubsidy)forFCVmaintenancecostforFCVcurrentlyOPEX00FCVhashigherFCVcosts~Rmb0.7/kmHDTduetohighdieselHDTtakingintoofvehiclepurchasetaxNEVs.Aggregatesalessince2020SubsidyDemonstrationAggregatesalessince2020SubsidyDemonstrationZoneTollexemption111111111111161111191814332100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2016201720182019202020212022202311M24FAWDongfengSinotrukFotonShaanxiHeavyDutyMotorOthers100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2016201720182019202020212022202311M24FAWSinotrukDongfengShaanxiHeavyDutyMotorFotonOthers100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2019202020212022202311M24OthersShaanxiAutoSinotrukFAWXCMGSanyCDDayunShaanxiAutoDongfengFotonFAWOthersMetalTire2%2%Others30%Cockpit4%GearboxStampingandforgingGearboxCastingsCastings6%7%Engine38%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2020202120222023ytd2024CATLEVEEnergyGotionOthersOthers12%Battery55%ChassisBattery55%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%FAWDongfengFotonSinotrukShaanxiFAWDongfengFotonWeichaiCumminsFAWYuchaiSinotrukDongfengOthers100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2016201720182019202020212022202311M24WeichaiCumminsFAWYuchaiSinotruckOthersOthers,12%Weichai,3%SHPT,5%Refire,42%Sino-Synergy,18%SinoHytec,20%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2016201720182019202020212022202311M24WeichaiCu