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MonetaryPolicyinaGlobalizedFinancialSystem
2MonetaryPolicyunderFixedExchangeRatesFrom1944to1973,themajoreconomiesoftheworldparticipatedinafixedexchangeratesystemknownastheBrettonWoodsAccordtheU.S.dollarservedastheofficialreserveasset3MonetaryPolicyunderFixedExchangeRatesSupportersofBrettonWoodsbelievedthatafixedexchangeratesystemofferedseveraladvantagesundersomeconditions,inflationandunemploymentcouldbeself-correctingexchangerateriskwasminimizedthetransactionscostsoftradingcurrencieswaslower4AdvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemIfacountryexperiencedhigherinflationthanitstradingpartners:itsnetexportswouldfallandcapitaloutflowswouldrisetheinflation-riddencountrywouldbeforcedtobuybackitscurrencythemoneysupplywouldfall,reducinginflationpressures5AdvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemIfunemploymentinacountryincreased:incomewouldfallcausingimportstofallandnetexportstorisethecountrywouldexperienceanincreaseininternationalreservesifpolicymakersallowtheincreaseininternationalreservestoincreasethemoneysupply,economicactivitywouldspeedupandunemploymentwouldfall6AdvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemExchangerateriskistheriskthatchangesintheexchangeratewillcausethevalueofforeigncurrenciesorforeignfinancialinstrumentstofallexchangerateriskwasonlyrelatedtotheprobabilitythatauthoritieswouldredefineacurrencyintermsoftheofficialreserveassetlowerexchangerateriskleadstoincreasesintrade,capitalflows,andeconomicefficiency7AdvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemDerivativescanbeusedtohedgeexchangerateriskbutthesegenerallyinvolvetransactionsfees8MonetaryPolicyunderFixedExchangeRatesTheBrettonWoodssystemalsoentailedsomedisadvantagestheabilityofforeigncountriestopursuetheirownmonetarypolicywaslimitedtheexpectationofdevaluationwasoftenaself-fulfillingprophecythesystemcouldonlybemaintainedifallcountrieswerewillingandabletosupporttheircurrencies9DisadvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemTheabilityofforeigncountriestopursuetheirownmonetarypolicieswaslimitedbecauseeachcountryhadtosupportitscurrencyifmarketforcescausedthecurrency’svaluetodeviatefromtheagreed-uponlevel10DisadvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemWhenacountrypursuedanexpansionarymonetarypolicy:itsmonetaryauthoritywouldincreasethesupplyofreservesavailabletothebankingsystemtheresultmaybeadeficitinitscurrentandcapitalaccountsnetexportswillfalltherewillbeacapitaloutflow11DisadvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemTomaintainthefixedexchangerate,thecentralbankofthisdeficitcountrywouldthenhavetopurchaseitsowncurrencythiswouldatleastpartiallyundothestimulatoryeffectsoftheexpansionarypolicyifthecountryranoutofdollars,itmighthavetodevalueitscurrencyloweritsvaluerelativetotheofficialreservecurrency12DisadvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemWhenacountrypursuedacontractionarymonetarypolicy:itsmonetaryauthoritywoulddecreasethesupplyofreservesavailabletothebankingsystemtheresultmaybeasurplusinitscurrentandcapitalaccountsnetexportswillrisetherewillbeacapitalinflow13DisadvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemTomaintainthefixedexchangerate,thecentralbankofthisdeficitcountrywouldthenhavetosellitsowncurrencythiswouldatleastpartiallyundotheeffectsofthecontractionarypolicyifthetradesurplusandcapitalflowpersisted,acountrywouldbeallowedtorevalueitscurrencyraiseitsvaluerelativetotheofficialreservecurrency14DisadvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemUndernormalcircumstances,exchangerateriskislesswithfixedexchangeratesifacountryisrunningadeficitinthebalanceofpaymentsanddevaluationseemslikely,marketparticipantswillattempttosupplymoreofthecurrencyinexchangefordollarsthiswillfurtherdepletethecountry’sinternationalreservesdevaluationwillbecomeanecessity15DisadvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemInorderforthefixedexchangeratesystemtowork,allcountriesmustbewillingandabletosupporttheircurrenciesmustalsobewillingtoperiodicallyandorderlyrevalueordevaluethem16DisadvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemTotheextentthatcountriesexperienceddifferentgrowthrates,inflationrates,andinterestratestructures,imbalancesinthecurrentandcapitalaccountswouldpersistifacountryhadmoreexpansionarypoliciesthantheU.S.,itwouldneedtodevalueifacountryhadmorecontractionarypoliciesthantheU.S.,itwouldneedtorevalue17DisadvantagesofaFixedExchangeRateSystemThesystembrokedownwhenitbecameclearthattheU.S.wouldnotbeabletoredeemdollarsingoldtheU.S.waspursuingmoreexpansionarypoliciesthanweresomeforeigneconomiesmostnotablyGermanyandJapantheresultwasanoutflowofgoldfromtheU.S.18MonetaryPolicyunderFlexibleExchangeRatesBeginningin1974,countriesswitchedfromBrettonWoodstoaflexibleexchangeratesystemthevalueofanation’scurrencyisdeterminedbythesupplyofanddemandforthatcurrencyininternationalmarketsthesupplyreflectsthedomesticdemandforforeigngoods,services,andsecuritiesthedemandreflectstheforeigndemandfordomesticgoods,services,andsecurities19MonetaryPolicyunderFlexibleExchangeRatesCountriesgainedmorecontrolovertheirownmonetarypoliciestheydidnothavetomaintainanagreed-uponleveloftheexchangeratetheydidnothavetosupporttheirdomesticcurrencyifmarketforcescausedittoappreciateordepreciate20MonetaryPolicyunderFlexibleExchangeRatesIfacountrypursuesmoreexpansionarypoliciesthanothercountries,itsbalanceofpaymentswillmoveintoadeficitpositionIfacountrypursuesmorecontractionarypoliciesthanothercountries,itsbalanceofpaymentswillmoveintoasurplusposition21MonetaryPolicyunderFlexibleExchangeRatesEventhoughthecountrynolongermustdefenditscurrencytomaintainthefixedexchangerate,itmustconsiderotherramificationsofitsmonetarypolicycapitalflowspotentialappreciationordepreciationofcurrencychangesinthegrowthrateofincome22MonetaryPolicyunderFlexibleExchangeRatesIfinternationaltradeandcapitalflowsaresmallrelativetotheaggregatelevelofeconomicactivity,monetaryauthoritiesmayhavegreaterlatitudeintheexecutionofpolicyastradeandcapitalflowshaveincreased,policymakershavebeenforcedtoconsiderhowtheirpolicieswillaffectforeigncountriesandwhatthefeedbacktothedomesticeconomymaybe23MonetaryPolicyunderFlexibleExchangeRatesCapitalflowsweakentheintendedeffectsofmonetarypolicyiftheFedraisesinterestratestoslowthelevelofeconomicactivity,foreignerswilldemandmoreU.S.financialinstrumentsthedemandforthedollarrisestheexchangeraterisescapitalflowsinfromabroadincreasingthesupplyofmoneytheinterestratefalls24MonetaryPolicyunderFlexibleExchangeRatesInaddition,thereduceddemandforforeignfinancialinstrumentsleadstoadropintheirpricesandariseinforeigninterestratesTheappreciationofthedollarwillalsoresultinadecreaseinnetexportsthisreinforcesthecontractionaryeffectsoftheriseininterestrates25MonetaryPolicyunderFlexibleExchangeRatesHowever,twootherforcesareworkingtoincreasenetexportstheincreaseininterestratelowersaggregatedemand,leadingtolowerincomeandareductioninimportsiftheslowingoftheeconomycausesdomesticpricestofallrelativetoforeignprices,exportswillrise26MonetaryPolicyunderFlexibleExchangeRatesTheseeffectsaregenerallysmallerthanthefallinnetexportscausedbytheappreciationofthedollarThus,theneteffectsofariseinU.S.interestratesareanappreciationoftheU.S.currencyhighercapitalinflowsadecreaseinnetexportsalargertradedeficit(orsmallertradesurplus)27ASchematicViewoftheResultsofU.S.ContractionaryPolicyunderFlexibleExchangeRatesContractionaryU.S.MonetaryPolicyHigherU.S.InterestRatesCapitalInflowCurrencyAppreciationDecreasedNetExportsAdjustmentinDomesticandForeignInterestRates28MonetaryPolicyunderFlexibleExchangeRatesTheimpactofU.S.monetarypolicyalsodependsonthemonetaryandfiscalpoliciesofothercountriesTherefore,exchangeratesaredeterminedjointlybythemonetaryandfiscalpoliciesofvariousinterdependentcountriesandtheresultingmarketforces29TheGlobalizationof
MonetaryPolicyTheeconomiesoftheworldarebecomingmoreinterdependentU.S.policymakersnowhavelesscontrolovertheperformanceoftheU.S.economyThishasgivenrisetocallsforcooperationandcoordinationamongworldpolicymakers30TheGlobalizationof
MonetaryPolicyPolicymakersareattemptingtomeetthechallengesofglobalizationinformaldiscussionsamongthemajorindustrializedcountriesinternationalorganizationssuchastheInternationalMonetaryFundandtheBankforInternationalSettlements31TheGlobalizationof
MonetaryPolicyToachieveastableinternationalfinancialsystemcountriesmusthavehealthyfinancialsystemswithnoninflationarypoliciescountriesmuststandardizethereportingofimportantfinancialinformationthesurveillanceofinternationalorganizationsthatoverseetheinternationalfinancialsystemmustbemoretransparentandopen32TheGlobalizationof
MonetaryPolicyWhatwillthefuturehold?Willthemajorworldeconomiesremainonaversionofthepresentflexibleexchangeratesystemorwilltheyreturntofixedexchangerates?33TheGlobalizationof
MonetaryPolicyIftheparticipantsinafixedexchangeratesystemhavesimilarmonetaryandfiscalpolicies,therecouldlargebenefitsfromfixedexchangeratesintheformofincreasedtradecountriesthathavedivergentpolicieswouldnotdowellunderfixedexchangeratescountriesmaynothavethepoliticaldisciplinetostickwithfixedexchangerates34TheGlobalizationof
MonetaryPolicyUnderflexibleexchangerates,capitalflowslimitacountry’sabilitytoexecutepoliciesthatdeviatesignificantlyfromtherestoftheworldthereisincentiveforcountriestocooperateandfindaworkablepolicythatisacceptabletoall35SummaryofMajorPointsTheBrettonWoodsAccordof1944establishedfixedexchangeratesbetweentheU.S.dollarandothermajorcurrenciessupportersofthefixedexchangeratesystembelievedthat,undersomeconditions,inflationandunemploymentwouldbeself-correcting36SummaryofMajorPointsTheneedtomaintainthevalueofacurrencyunderfixedexchangerateslimitedtheabilityofacountrytopursueitsownmonetarypolicyBecausecountrieshaddiversemonetaryandfiscalpolicies,exchangerateimbalancespersistedeventuallyBrettonWoodscollapsedandwasreplacedbya
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