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RecessionandDepression

.IntroductionPeriodbetween1980sand2007wasatimeofmacroeconomicstabilityGreatModerationGreatRecessionof2007-2009broughtanendtotheGreatModerationModernmacroeconomicsgrewoutoftheGreatDepressionAsbadastheGreatRecessionwas,itwouldhavebeenmuchworseifnotforthelessonslearnedfromtheGreatDepression21-2IntroductionGreateventsshapeboththeeconomyandthestudyofeconomicsThestudyofmacroeconomicsinparticulargrowsoutofeconomicexperiences–especiallytraumaticonesIntheGreatDepression25%ofthelaborforcewasunemployedMacroeconomicfluctuationssomildbetween1980andearly21stcenturywasdubbedtheGreatModerationGreatRecessionof2007-2009dashedhopesoftamingthebusinesscycleDuringthe20thcenturymanycountriesexperiencedhyperinflationOverthelaterpartofthe20thcenturythebudgetbalanceintheU.S.swungfromdeficittosurplus,andthenbacktodeficit21-3TheGreatModerationWidefluctuationsinbusinesscycleduringearlydecadesofpost-warperiodDampenedoutbetween1980-2007GreatModeration21-4TheGreatModerationInflationalsobroughtundercontrolduringGreatModerationFinancialcrisisdemonstratedmacroeconomicpolicymightbebetterbutshocksarestillwithus21-5TheGreatModerationGreatRecessionwasbad,butnotarevisitoftheGreatDepressionAtthepeak,closeto1in6wereunemployedorunderemployedduringtheGreatRecession21-6TheGreatModerationLong-termunemploymentofGreatRecessionhardonhouseholds,whichcontinuedseveralyearsaftertheofficialendoftherecession21-7TheGreatDepression:TheFacts

TheGreatDepressionshapedmanyinstitutionsintheeconomy,includingtheFederalReserveandmodernmacroeconomicsDuringtheGreatDepression:Thestockmarketfellby85%GNPfellby30%Theunemploymentraterosefrom3to25%NetinvestmentwasnegativeCPIfellnearly25%21-8TheGreatDepression:TheFacts

21-9Whatwaseconomicpolicyduringthisperiod?Moneystockfellrapidlyduetobankfailures,increasedcurrency-depositratio,andthefailureoftheFedtotakeadequateexpansionarymeasuresFiscalpolicywasweakTable21-2showslargebudgetdeficitsAttemptstobalancethebudgetthroughincreasedtaxescontractionarypoliciesataninopportunetimeTheGreatDepression:

TheIssuesandIdeasWhatmacroeconomictheoriescanexplaintheGreatDepression?Classicaleconomicsofthetimehadnowell-developedtheorythatcouldexplainthepersistentandexcessiveunemploymentORanypolicyrecommendationstosolvetheproblemTheGreatDepressionandtheinadequacyofprevailingeconomictheorieswasthesettingforJohnMaynardKeynesandhisfamousworkTheGeneralTheoryofEmployment,Interest,andMoneyHistheoryexplainedWhathadhappenedWhatcouldhavebeendonetopreventtheGreatDepressionWhatcouldbedonetopreventfuturedepressions21-10TheKeynesianExplanationEssenceoftheKeynesianexplanationoftheGreatDepressioniscontainedinthesimpleaggregatedemandmodelGrowthinthe1920sbasedon:MassproductionoftheautomobileMassproductionoftheradioHousingboomCollapseinthe1930sresultedfrom:DryingupofinvestmentopportunitiesReductioninconsumptionexpendituresPoorfiscalpolicy21-11TheKeynesianExplanationTheGreatDepressionshowed:TheprivateeconomywasinherentlyunstableActivestabilizationpolicyneededtomaintainastrongeconomyKeynesianmodeloffered:AnexplanationforwhathadhappenedSuggestionsforpolicymeasuresthatcouldhavepreventedtheGreatDepressionSuggestionsforpolicymeasurestopreventfuturedepressions21-12TheMonetaristChallengeKeynesianemphasisonfiscalpolicyanditsdownplayingoftheroleofmoneywaschallengedbyMiltonFriedmanandhiscoworkersinthe1950s.FriedmanemphasizedtheroleofmonetarypolicyindeterminingthebehaviorofoutputandpricesFriedmanattackedviewthatmonetarypolicywasimpotentduringthe1930sHearguedthattheDepressionwasevidenceoftheimportanceofmonetaryfactorsFailureoftheFedtopreventbankfailuresanddeclineofmoneystockwaslargelyresponsiblefortheseverityofthedepressionMonetaryviewcameclosetobeingacceptedastheorthodoxexplanationoftheDepression21-13SynthesisBothKeynesianandMonetaristexplanationsfitthefactsoftheGreatDepressionIneptfiscalandmonetarypolicymadeGreatRecessionsevereGeneralagreementthatGreat

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