UNDP-多速增长又回来了但存在财政盲点（英）-2024-WN8

UNITEDNATIONSDEVELOPMENTPROGRAMMEDEVELOPMENTFUTURESSERIESMulti-speedgrowthisback,withafiscalblindspotbyGeorgeGrayMolinaandEduardoOrtiz-JuarezUNDPGLOBALPOLICYNETWORKUNDPistheleadingUnitedNationsorganizationfightingtoendtheinjusticeofpoverty,inequalityandclimatechange.Workingwithourbroadnetworkofexpertsandpartnersin170countries,wehelpna-tionstobuildintegrated,lastingsolutionsforpeopleandplanet.Learnmoreatorfollowat@UNDP.Theviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheUnitedNations,includingUNDP,ortheUNMemberStates.Copyright©UNDPJuly2024AllrightsreservedUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme1UNPlaza,NewYork,NY10017,USAOnlineISSN:3005-3307UNDPDevelopmentFuturesSeriesMulti-speedgrowthisback,withafiscalblindspotbyGeorgeGrayMolinaandEduardoOrtiz-Juarez1Summary:Multi-speedgrowthisback:68developingeconomiesarecurrentlygrowingatmorethan4percent,47atbetween2and4percentand37atlessthan2percent.Theprojectedeffectsonpovertyareuneven.Despiteadownwardtrendsincethepandemicin2020,anestimated7.7percentoftheglobalpopulationcouldstillbelivinginextremepovertyin2024,justbelowthepre-pandemiclevelof8percent,andcoulddecreaseslightlyto7.2percentby2026.Anadditional13.1percentoftheworld’spopulationwillbelivingon$2.15to$3.65adayin2024(makingatotalof20.8percentlivingonlessthan$3.65aday)andanadditional23.5percenton$3.65to$6.85aday(makingatotalof44.3percentlivingonlessthan$6.85aday).By2026,thesharesoftheglobalpopulationlivingonlessthan$3.65and$6.85adayareprojectedtoreach18.9percentand42.5percent,respectively.Lookingforward,highlevelsofdebtandweakdevelopmentfinancingareexpectedtomakeunevenpatternsofgrowthandpovertymoredivergent.In49countries,netinterestpaymentsasashareofrevenuearenowhigherthan10percent,upfrom27countriesadecadeago,andin10countries,theyarenowhigherthan25percent.Worstaffectedistheworld’spoorestregion,Sub-SaharanAfrica,whichaccountsfor45percentofcountrieswithinterestpaymentsinexcessof10percentand50percentofcountrieswithpaymentshigherthan25percent.Indicatorsofdebtdistressanddefaultriskremainelevated.Fordevelopingeconomieswithasovereigncreditrating,61percent(54countries)havearatingbelow‘non-investmentgrade’,andforcountrieswithdebtassessedundertheLIC-DSF,51percent(34countries)areratedeitherinorathighriskofdebtdistress.1GeorgeGrayMolinaisHeadofInclusiveGrowthandChiefEconomistatUNDP’sBureauforPolicyandProgrammeSupportaswellasChiefEconomicAdvisortotheUNDPAdministrator,email:george.gray.molina@;EduardoOrꢀz-JuarezisLecturerinDevelopmentEconomicsatKing’sCollegeLondonandSeniorEconomicResearchAdvisoratUNDP’sBureauforPolicyandProgrammeSupport,email:eduardo.orꢀzj@kcl.ac.uk.Afterfouryearsofamostlysynchronizedpatternofeconomicgrowth,theglobaleconomyisreturningtoamulti-speedpattern—withsomeeconomiesacceleratingandothersmitigatingtheeffectsofprolongedcrises.Thefocusofmanypolicymakersistoacceleratebothgrowthandpotentialgrowthtoachieveinclusiveandsustainablepatternsofgrowthoverthemediumterm.Anaddedchallengeformostdevelopingeconomiesistoovercomeseverefiscalandfinancialconstraintsfromthepost-pandemicperiod.Thisbrieffocusesontheprojecteddefaulttrajectoryofeconomicgrowthindevelopingeconomiesthrough2026andtheireffectsoverpovertyatvariouspovertylines($2.15,$3.65and$6.85aday).Inthebackdroparetwoquestions:WillcurrentgrowthratesallowdevelopingeconomiestoovercomeSDGreversalsinmonetarypoverty?(Yes,butataveryslowpace,alotslowerthanthepre-Covidperiod.)And,aredevelopingeconomiesabletoscaleupSDGinvestmentstoachievesomeofthekey2030Agendatargets?(No,mostlybecauseofseverefiscalandfinancialconstraintsthrough2026.)Wepresentevidenceoncurrentgrowthratesandpovertyprojections,whichsuggestveryunevenoutcomesacrossdevelopingeconomiesforthefinalyearsofthe2030Agenda.Wethenfocusonakeydivergenttrend:fiscalandfinancialflowsindevelopingeconomies.Weendthebriefbyassessingthegeopoliticalandgeoeconomicfragmentationeffectsofthisunevenpatternofdevelopment.Amulti-speedmoment:Backtonormal?AperiodofinterlinkedcrisescharacterizedbytheonsetoftheCOVID-19pandemic,subsequentshockssuchasthecost-of-livingcrisis,thewarinUkraineandtighteningfinancialconditionsledtheworldtosynchronizedincomeandjoblossesacrossbothadvancedanddevelopingcountries.However,aswemoveforward,theglobaleconomyisrecoveringandexhibitingsignificantgrowth,albeitatvaryingspeeds.Notably,developingcountriesaredemonstratingrelativelyhigherdynamismcomparedtotheiradvancedcounterparts.TheIMF’sWorldEconomicOutlookDatabaseofApril2024allowsustoobservetwotrends:first,thecurrentstateofeconomiesin2024comparedtoahypotheticalscenariowherethepolycrisisperioddidnotoccur,andsecond,theprojectedtrendsinthemediumtermfrom2024to2026.Regardingthefirsttrend,asimpleexerciseadjustscountries’forecastedeconomicgrowthin2024(covering186countries)bytheirgaprelativetotheforecastsmadein2019,beforethepolycrisisperiod.TheseadjustedGDPgrowthratesarethenclassifiedintothreegroups:mitigation,iftheadjustedratesarebelow2percent(indicatinglowgrowth);muddlingthrough,iftheadjustedratesrangefrom2percentto4percent(indicatingmoderategrowth);andacceleration,iftheratesareabove4percent(indicatinghighgrowth).Figure1illustratestheseclassifications.In2024,nearlyhalfofthedevelopingworld(68countries)isintheaccelerationstage,withcurrentgrowthratesaveraging5.4percent,significantlysurpassingtheirexpectedaverageratesbeforethepandemicandsubsequentcrises.Additionally,31percent(47countries)areinthemuddlingthroughstage,withaveragegrowthratesof3.2percent,approachingtheirpre-pandemicaverageof3.8percent.Onlyaquarterofdevelopingcountriesarestillinthemitigationstage,withcurrentaveragegrowthof1.3percent,whichistwopercentagepointsbelowtheirpre-pandemicaverageforecastof3.3percent.Instarkcontrasttothesetrends,thevastmajorityofadvancedeconomies(almostthreefourths)arestillinthemitigationstage,withcurrentaveragegrowthratesof1.1percent,whicharehalfoftheexpectedaverageratesfortheseeconomiesbeforethepandemic.Thisdivergencehighlightsthemulti-speednatureoftheglobaleconomicrecovery,wheredevelopingcountriesareexperiencinghighergrowthdynamicscomparedtotheiradvancedcounterparts.Figure1.Growthdynamicsin2024:Mitigating,muddlingthroughoracceleratingcomparedtopre-pandemicprojectionsSource:Authors’elaborationbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlookDatabase(October2019andApril2024).Regardingthesecondtrendrelatedtotheaveragegrowthexpectedfortheperiod2024–2026,thedataconfirmsamulti-speedpattern.Usingthesamecategoriesoflow,moderateandhighgrowth,Figure2showsthat40percentofdevelopingcountriesareexpectedtogrowatmorethan4percent(highgrowth),withanaveragegrowthrateof5.6percent.Additionally,49percentofdevelopingcountriesareprojectedtogrowatbetween2percentand4percent(moderategrowth),averagingagrowthrateof3.1percent,whereas13percent(19countries)areanticipatedtogrowatlessthan2percent(lowgrowth),withanaveragegrowthrateof1.2percent.Incontrast,thebulkofadvancedeconomies(around60percent)areprojectedtogrowatanaveragerateof1.5percent,withonly14percent(12countries)experiencingmoderategrowthatanaveragerateof2.5percent.Notably,justtwoadvancedeconomiesareforecastedtoachievehighgrowthexceeding6percent.Thisfurtherillustratesthedisparitiesingrowthratesbetweendevelopingandadvancedeconomies.Figure2.Multi-speedgrowthdynamicsover2024–2026Source:Authors’elaborationbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlookDatabase(April2024).Overall,developingcountries’averagegrowthratessignificantlyexceedadvancedeconomies’projections—andtheyareanticipatedtoremainhigherinthelongertermupto2029,accordingtoIMFprojections—withdevelopingeconomiesinSouthAsia(SAS)andSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA)expectedtohaveaveragegrowthratesabovethoseofallotherdevelopingregions.Specifically,during2024–2026,averagegrowthinSASandSSAisforecastedtoreach5.2percentand4.4percent,respectively,significantlyabovetheglobalaverageof3.2percent.Incontrast,regionssuchasEuropeandCentralAsia(ECA)andLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(LAC)areexpectedtogrowatrelativelyslowerrates,averagingbetween3.3percentand3.4percent(Figure3).Thishighlightstheregionaldisparitiesineconomicgrowth,withSASandSSAemergingasthemostdynamicregionsamongdevelopingcountries.Figure3.RegionalGDPgrowthdynamicsandprojections,2019–2026Source:Authors’elaborationbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlookDatabase(April2024).Whatdothesetrendsrepresentforpovertyreductionaroundtheworld?Toprojectglobalpovertyratesinto2026,weutilizebinneddistributionsofpercapitahouseholdincomeorconsumption($0.10bins),expressedin2017purchasingpowerparity(PPP).ThesedistributionsarederivedfromtheWorldBank’sPovertyandInequalityPlatform,coveringapproximately96percentoftheglobalpopulationacross159countries.2Weprojectthesedistributionsforwardto2026byapplyingannualGDPpercapitagrowthratesfromtheApril2024IMFWorldEconomicOutlookDatabase,adjustedforpopulationchangesandassumingan85percentdistribution-neutralpassthroughrate.3Povertyheadcountratesarethencalculatedusinginternationalpovertystandards(in2017$PPPperday):$2.15forextremepoverty;$3.65and$6.852ReconstructedthroughthePIPStatamodule(version0.9.5)bycomputingthecumulativeshareofthepopulationwithhouseholdpercapitaincomeorconsumptionbelowaseriesofthresholdsthatchangeinvalueevery$0.10adayperperson(2017PPP),startingfrom$0.10uptoamaximumvaluethatcovers99.9percentofthepopulation.Fromthesecumulativeshares,individualswithineach$0.10binwereisolatedandthenassignedthemiddlevalueoftheirbinastheirdailyamountofpercapitaincomeorconsumption.Thesizeofthepopulationwithineach$0.10binisusedasaweight.3Forfurtherdetailsontheestimationofthispassthroughrate,seeLakner,C.,Mahler,D.G.,Negre,M.,&BeerPrydz,E.,2022,‘HowMuchDoesReducingInequalityMatterforGlobalPoverty?’TheJournalofEconomicInequality,20:559–585.representingthemedianpovertylinesoflower-middle-andupper-middle-incomecountries,respectively.4Figure4presentsourprojections.Despiteadownwardtrendsincethepandemicin2020,anestimated7.7percentoftheglobalpopulationcouldstillbelivinginextremepovertyin2024,definedaslivingonlessthan$2.15aday.Thisfigureisjustbelowthepre-pandemiclevelof8percentandcoulddecreaseslightlyto7.2percentby2026.Giventhatonlyabout1percentofglobalpovertyisconcentratedinadvancedeconomies,theseresultssuggestthatdespitetherecoveryofgrowth,withrelativelyhighratesamongdevelopingcountries,itisnotexpectedtoexertanoticeableeffectonloweringtheincidenceofpoverty.In2024,anadditional13.1percentoftheworld’spopulationwillbelivingon$2.15to$3.65aday(hence,20.8percentlivingonlessthan$3.65aday)and23.5percenton$3.65to$6.85aday(hence,44.3percentlivingonlessthan$6.85aday).By2026,thesharesoftheglobalpopulationlivingonlessthan$3.65and$6.85adayareprojectedtoreach18.9percentand42.5percent,respectively.Thesefiguresarenotdramaticallydifferentfromtheratesobservedbeforethepandemic,whichwere23.1percentand47.4percent,respectively.Figure4.Projectedsharesoftheglobalpopulationlivinginpoverty,2019–2026Source:Authors’ownelaborationbasedonthesourcesandmethoddescribedinthetext.4Jolliffe,D.M.,Mahler,D.G.,Lakner,C.,Atamanov,A.,&TettehBaah,S.K.(2022).AssessingtheImpactofthe2017PPPsontheInternationalPovertyLineandGlobalPoverty,PolicyResearchWorkingPaper9941,TheWorldBank.Therearesignificantheterogeneitiesinhoweconomicgrowthiscontributingtopovertyreductionacrossdifferentgroupsofcountries.Focusingonthechangesintheincidenceofpovertyat$2.15aday,ourestimatesindicateamixofprogressandchallengesinpovertyreduction.Inthemulti-speedgrowthperiod(2024–2026),theincidenceofglobalpovertyisexpectedtoreduceby0.66percentagepoints.ThisreductionispredominantlydrivenbythedecreasesinSouthAsia(SAS)andSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA),wherepovertyisprojectedtodecreaseby2and1.91percentagepoints,respectively.Incontrast,otherdevelopingregionsareexpectedtoseemoremodestreductions,rangingfrom0.07percentagepointsintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MNA)to0.34percentagepointsinEastAsiaandthePacific(EAP)(Figure5a).ThehigherreductionsinpovertyinSASandSSAareconsistentwiththerobusteconomicgrowthratestheseregionsareexperiencing—thisisparticularlynotableforSSA,wheretheanticipated1.91percentagepointreductioninpovertyisasignificantimprovementcomparedtothe1.15percentagepointincreaseobservedduringthepolycrisisperiod(2019–2023)(Annex).GiventhatbothSASandSSApredominantlycompriselow-incomecountries(LICs),lower-middle-incomecountries(LMICs),andleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs),itisexpectedthatthesegroupswillseeconsiderablereductionsinpoverty,withLICsprojectedtoreducepovertyby2.41percentagepointsandLMICsandLDCsby1.45and1.67percentagepoints,respectively.Asimilartrendisobservedwhenusingahigherpovertylineof$3.65aday,withSASandSSAagainexpectedtoachievethemostsignificantreductionsinpovertycomparedtootherdevelopingregions(Figure5b).Figure5.ProjectedaggregatechangesinpovertybyregionsandgroupsSource:Authors’ownelaborationbasedonthesourcesandmethoddescribedinthetext.Usingthehigherpovertylineof$6.85aday,theresultsinFigure6indicatethattherelativelylowachievementinglobalpovertyreductionisdrivenbysignificantreductionsinmiddle-incomecountries,particularlyinSASandEAP.InSAS,theincidenceofpovertyisprojectedtodeclineby6.6percentagepoints,aligningwiththeregion’srobusteconomicgrowthrates.Similarly,EAPisexpectedtoseeareductionof4.37percentagepointsdespiteitsaverageeconomicgrowthrateof3.8percentfrom2024to2026,whichiscomparabletothegrowthratesof3.3percentand3.4percentobservedinECAandLAC,respectively,suggestinganapparentlyhigherpoverty-reducingeffectinEAPrelativetootherregionswithsimilareconomicgrowthrates.Figure6.Projectedaggregatechangesinpovertyat$6.85adaybyregionsandgroupsSource:Authors’ownelaborationbasedonthesourcesandmethoddescribedinthetext.Ingeneral,theresultssuggestabroadtrendofdecliningpovertyratesmovinginto2024–2026,reflectingagenerallypositiveimpactofrecoveredgrowth.However,theachievementintranslatingmoderate-to-higheconomicgrowthintosignificantpovertyreductionremainsverylowandheterogeneousacrosscountries.Specificallyfocusingoncountriesforwhichthereisdataonbotheconomicgrowthandpovertyprojections(159countries,ofwhich128aredevelopingcountries),theaveragechangesintheincidenceofpovertybetween2023and2026tendtobedisappointinggiventheprojectedgrowthrates.Amongthe12developingcountriesinthecategoryoflowgrowth,theaverageGDPgrowthrateovertheperiodreaches1.45percent,butthechangeinpovertyat$2.15adayisbarelynoticeable,withanaverageincreaseof0.09percentagepoints.Thechangesinpovertyathigherpovertylinesaverage0.2and0.74percentagepoints(Table1).Amongthe63developingcountrieswithaGDPgrowthrateofbetween2percentand4percent,theiraveragegrowthratereachesalmost3.1percent,yettheaveragechangeinpovertyremainsverylow,at0.19and0.49pointsforthelowestpovertylinesand1.41pointsforthe$6.85povertyline.Finally,amongthe53countriesexperiencinghigheconomicgrowth,averaging5.6percent,theaveragereductionsinpovertyarestilldisappointing,particularlythoseobservedatthelowestpovertylineof$2.15aday,reachingonly1.95percentagepointsduringtheperiod.Theseresultssuggestthatsignificantdistributionalchallengesremainacrossdevelopingcountriesinaddressingtherelativestagnationinpovertyreductiondespiterecoveredandsubstantialratesofeconomicgrowth.Table1.Projectedchangesinpovertyratesbyeconomicgrowthcategories,2024–2026Source:Authors’ownelaborationbasedonthesourcesandmethoddescribedinthetext.Notes.Theaveragegrowthrate(%)iscomputedasthesimpleaverageofthegrowthratesin2024,2025and2026.Thechangesinpovertyatdifferentpovertylinesarecomputedasthedifferencebetweentheincidencesobservedin2023and2026.Moreover,in35developingcountries,despiteaforecastedaveragegrowthrateof2.89percentduring2024–2026,theincidenceofpovertyat$2.15adayisexpectedtoremainunchangedorevenincrease,withanaveragechangeof0.19percentagepoints.Similartrendsareobservedathigherpovertylines:in18countries,povertyratesat$3.65adayareexpectedtorisebyanaverageof0.40pointsdespiteanaverageeconomicgrowthrateof2.49percent,andin10countries,povertyratesat$6.85adayareprojectedtoincreaseby0.42pointsgivenanaverageeconomicgrowthrateofnearly2.1percent.Thesefindingsconfirmthatdistributionalchallengesinsomecountriesareparticularlysevere,preventingthebenefitsofeconomicgrowthfromreachingthepoorestsegmentsofthepopulation.ThesecasesareespeciallyconcentratedinSSA,withsignificantcontributionsfromSASandMNA.Table2.Developingcountrieswithpositiveeconomicgrowthbutstagnantorincreasingpovertyrates,2024–2026Source:Authors’ownelaborationbasedonthesourcesandmethoddescribedinthetext.Notes.Theaveragegrowthrate(%)iscomputedasthesimpleaverageofthegrowthratesin2024,2025and2026.Thechangesinpovertyatdifferentpovertylinesarecomputedasthedifferencebetweentheincidenceobservedin2023and2026.FiscalandfinancialdivergencesAfteryearsofconsecutiveshockscoupledwithlimitedfiscalandfinancialcopingcapacity,manydevelopingeconomies,especiallythepoorestandmostfragile,arefacingadimdevelopmentoutlook.Highdebtburdensworsenedbydepreciatedcurrencies,higherinterestratesandlowergrowthareamajorcontributortothedevelopmentoutlookascountriesaredevotingalargeandincreasingshareofrevenuetoservicedebtatthecostofgrowthandwelfare-enhancinginvestmentsinhealth,education,infrastructure,povertyreduction,climatemitigation,etc.Inthemediandevelopingeconomy,governmentdebtasashareofGDPhasincreasedbyalmost20percentagepointsoverthepastdecade,nowreaching55.3percent,andnetinterestpaymentsasashareofrevenuedoubled,nowreaching8.6percent.5In49countries,netinterestpaymentsasashareofrevenueisnowhigherthan10percent,upfrom27countriesadecadeago,andin10countriesitishigherthanonequarter.Worstaffectedistheworld’spoorestregion,Sub-SaharanAfrica,whichaccountsfor45percentofcountrieswithinterestpaymentsinexcessof10percentand50percentofcountrieswithpaymentshigherthan25percent.Indicatorsofdebtdistressanddefaultriskremainelevated.Fordevelopingeconomieswithasovereigncreditrating,61percent(54countries)havearatingbelow‘non-investmentgrade’,andforcountrieswithdebtassessedundertheLIC-DSF,651percent(34countries)areratedeitherinorathighriskofdebtdistress.Theseverityofthedebtsituationisalsoreflectedinarrearsonexternaldebt,whichforthegroupofpoorest(heremeaninglowandlower-middle5SeeUNDP’sdebtinsightsdatapageforthisandmore:hꢀps:///insights/debt-in-developing-economies6TheLow-IncomeCountryDebtSustainabilityFramework.income)countriesin2022reachedanunprecedentedlevelof$101billion,upfrom$45billionin2012.7Whileglobalinterestrateshavebeentrendingdownwardsoverthepastsixtoninemonthsasadvancedeconomieshavegraduallybroughtdowninflation,theyarelikelytoremainelevatedinthenearfuture,especiallyforthelowest-ratedandpooresteconomies,comparedtobeforeCOVID.Coupledwithlargerefinancingn