PitchBoo-k-金融科技并购回顾：中端市场估值分析（英）-2024-11正式版WN8

PitchBookData,Inc.

NizarTarhuniExecutiveVicePresidentof

ResearchandMarketIntelligence

PaulCondraHeadofEmerging

TechnologyResearch

InstitutionalResearchGroup

EMERGINGTECHRESEARCH

FintechM&AReview:Middle-

MarketValuationAnalysis

Creatinganewcompsetforthemiddlemarket

Analysis

JamesUlan

LeadAnalyst,Emerging

Technology

james.ulan@

PitchBookisaMorningstarcompanyprovidingthemostcomprehensive,most

accurate,andhard-to-finddataforprofessionalsdoingbusinessintheprivatemarkets.

RudyYang

SeniorAnalyst,Emerging

Technology

rudy.yang@

Keytakeaways

Data

CollinAnderson

DataAnalyst

pbinstitutionalresearch@

Publishing

DesignedbyMeganWoodard

•PEbuyoutsflattenaftertwostrongquarters:Theheatcameoffthefintech

buyoutmarketinQ2.PEfintechbuyoutsdeceleratedtoanestimated12deals

inQ2,down57%fromQ1’s28estimatedbuyouts,anddown37%fromQ4’s19

estimatedbuyouts.However,Q2’s12buyoutswereessentiallyflatcompared

withQ22023.DespiteasoftQ2,buyoutsinthepast12monthshavebeen

healthy,withanestimated68fintechdealscomparedwith2023’s55,2022’s62,

2021’s104,and2020’s72buyouts.Lowerrateswouldprovidethefirstlegofa

truePErevival,butaddingastrongIPOandcorporateM&Amarketwouldputus

closerto2021levels.

PublishedonAugust12,2024

Contents

Keytakeaways1

CorporateandPEB2Bfintechacquisitions2

PEbuyouts5

Corporatefintechacquisitions7

Proprietaryfintechvaluationsformiddle-

marketandlower-middle-marketPE

9

•Largefintechandpaymentsbuyoutswillcontinue—herearethelikelypublic

targets:Weexpectmorelargefintech/paymentsbuyouts,despitealackof

accelerationinthebuyoutcount.TheacquisitionsofNuveifor$6.2billion,

Worldpayfor$12.5billion,andCoupafor$8.0billionandthepresenceofbig

PEsuchasBlackstoneandCarlyleinthespaceremindusthatpaymentsand

softwareareperfectcandidatesforPEduetotheirstrongrevenuegrowth

andhealthymargins.UsingPitchBook’sproprietaryPEtake-privatemodel,we

identifiedsixpubliclytradedfintech/paymentscompanieswiththehighest

likelihoodofbeingacquiredbyPE:nCino(7.7%takeoutprobability),AvidXchange

(6.5%),EuronetWorldwide(5.3%),Corpay(4.7%),Remitly(4.4%),and

BILL(4.2%).

VC-backedfintechsuccessmeasures10

•Corporateacquisitionsremainsubdued:Q2saw26estimatedcorporatedeals,

comparedwith26inQ12024and25inQ22023.Thetrailing12-month(TTM)

corporateacquisitioncountwasestimatedat98deals,comparedwith91in

2023,120in2022,165in2021,and88in2020.WepredictthatcorporateM&A

willtaketwoormoreyearsto“comeback”infullandwillbedrivenbythree

factors:CEOconfidence,whichisheavilyinfluencedbystockprice;consistent

economicandcompanyoperatingperformanceovertime;andFOMOwhile

watchingpeersmakeacquisitions.

1

PitchBookAnalystNote:FintechM&AReview:Middle-MarketValuationAnalysis

•Paymentsleadsinnewvaluationanalysisformiddle-marketandlower-

middle-marketPE:Weexaminedtheratioofacquisitionpricestoemployee

headcount(aproxyforrevenueandprofitability)from2020toQ22024.

Paymentscompaniesloggedthehighestmedianvaluationratioat1.61x,followed

byfinancialservicesinfrastructureat1.40x,capitalmarketsat1.34x,CFOstack

at1.26x,wealthtechat1.06x,regtechat0.86x,andfinallyalternativelending

at0.86x.

•B2B(enterprise)paymentsalsooutperformonexitvaluemeasures:Foreach

fintechsector,wecomparedVCdollarsinvestedinfirst-timefinancingroundsto

eventualexitvaluetodeterminewhichsubsectorsgeneratedstrongreturnsfor

earlyinvestors.Enterprisepaymentsledwitha2.1xratio,followedbyregtechat

1.6x,consumerpaymentsat1.55x,andfinancialservicesinfrastructureat1.06x.

Allothercategorieswerebelow1.0x.

CorporateandPEB2Bfintechacquisitions

CorporateandPEB2Bfintechacquisitionsstallaftertwostrongquarters:Q2’s37

estimatedB2Bfintechdealsrosebyonly3%YoY(essentiallyflat)fromQ22023’s36

dealsbutdeclinedby32%fromQ12024’sestimated54deals.The32%QoQdecline

wasdrivenbyfewerPEbuyouts(Q2isaseasonallylowquarterforfintechbuyouts),

whereascorporateacquisitionswereflatQoQ.PEbuyoutsaredecliningaftera

strongQ4andQ1,whilecorporateM&Aremainsslow.

ThereismorethanonereasonwhycorporateM&Aremainsslow:CorporateM&A

risesandfallswithC-suiteconfidence,whichisheavilyinfluencedbyoperating

performanceandstockprice,aswellaswhetherthesemetricsarestableor

improvingovertime.

Duringtimesofstress,theC-suitefocusesmoreonthecore,notonM&A:

CorporateC-suitesreducedM&Ain2022and2023asrevenuedecelerateddueto

theevaporationofCOVID-19pandemicstimulusandeconomistsnear-unanimously

callingforarecession.Inresponse,corporateleadersfocusedtheirenergyontheir

corebusinesses(costoptimization,revenuestabilization),notonM&A.Additionally,

thepooropticsoflargecorporateacquisitionsduringorafterlayoffsfurther

dampenedthedealenvironment.

Inanenvironmentwherevaluations,revenuegrowthrates,andprofitmarginsare

expanding,theC-suiteismorelikelytotaketheriskofmakingabigacquisition.

OurpredictionforfuturecorporatefintechM&A:Webelievethatcorporate

M&Awilltaketwoormoreyearsto“comeback.”Weexpectacquisitionsby

corporatestobedrivenbythreefactors:CEOconfidence,whichisheavily

influencedbysuccessivestockpricegainsovertheyears;consistenteconomic

andcompanyoperatingperformanceovertime;andFOMOwhilewatchingpeers

makeacquisitions.

Whileastockmarketmelt-upormeltdowncanhappenatanytime,weputhigher

oddsonamelt-upastheFederalReserve(theFed)preparestolowerratesandifthe

lower-endconsumercontinuestospend.

2

PitchBookAnalystNote:FintechM&AReview:Middle-MarketValuationAnalysis

Timehelps:GreaterC-suiteconfidence—drivenbygoodcompany,economic,and

stockpriceperformance—strengthensovermultipleyears.Eachyearofconsistent

growthcausestheC-suitetoextrapolateintothefuture,thusboostingconfidencein

bothbuilding/buyingnewcapabilitiesandassets.

QuarterlyenterprisefintechM&Aactivity

$2080

70

$1560

50

$1040

30

$520

10

$00

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2

20202021202220232024*

Dealvalue($B)DealcountEstimateddealcount

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024

Popularacquisitioncategories:Separately,welookedatthemostfrequently

acquiredsubsegmentswithinourlargercategories.Unsurprisingly,payments

andsoftwarecontinuetodominate.InH12024,wesawthemostacquisitionsin

paymentplatforms&pointofsale(POS),expensemanagement&accountspayable

(AP)/accountsreceivable(AR)automation,platforms&APIs,data&analytics,and

alternativeinvestments.Theseresultsweremostlyinlinewithprioryears,withthe

exceptionofalternativeinvestments,whichoutperformeditsdealcountsfromthe

2010-2023period.Thisislikelyduetothegrowthofprivatemarkets.Separately,

softwareandpaymentscontrastwithlendingbusinesses,whichareseeing

feweracquisitions.

Whylendingstrugglesandpaymentsandsoftwareoutperform:VCsknow

thatpaymentsandsoftwarepresentbetterrevenueandmarginopportunities

thanlending,whichisamorematureindustry.Thelendingbusinessisalsomore

competitivebecausebankslargeandsmallcompetevigorouslyforborrowers.

Additionally,loanprovidersessentiallysupplyacommodity(capital)withlow

switchingcosts,whereassoftwareandpaymentsbusinessescandeveloptailored

industry-specificsolutions,thuscreatingamoat.

3

PitchBookAnalystNote:FintechM&AReview:Middle-MarketValuationAnalysis

Topfintechsubsegmentsbydealcount(2020-Q22024)*

2020202120222023Q12024Q22024

Paymentplatforms&POS475642321110

Data&analytics78121532

Platforms&APIs918111261

Enterprisearchitecture1217141112

Investmenttools&platforms296801

B2Bpayments5912700

Underwriting&creditscoring544610

Alternativecapital598510

Trading5145520

Realestatelending193501

AlternativeInvestments414523

Credit&buynow,paylater(BNPL)730511

Expensemanagement&AP/ARautomation122318553

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024

Withrespecttoexitsize,thelargestacquisitionsandbuyoutscontinuetobein

paymentplatforms&POS,enterprisearchitecture,platforms&APIs,andB2B

payments.Data&analyticshasalsobeencompletinglargerexits.

Topfintechsubsegmentsbydealvalue($M)(2020-Q22024)*

2020202120222023Q12024Q22024

Paymentplatforms&POS$1,063.3$5,596.5$5,189.1$13,958.3$74.7$6,367.0

Enterprisearchitecture$2,478.0$3,785.0$15,340.2$11,317.7$0.0$0.0

Platforms&APIs$2,074.1$3,723.9$699.7$2,890.9$75.0$0.0

B2Bpayments$818.7$1,495.1$437.0$1,538.0$0.0$0.0

Data&analytics$0.0$219.0$247.3$906.0$0.0$930.0

Alternativeinvestments$0.0$0.0$29.9$596.8$97.1$0.0

Infrastructure$29.6$0.0$449.9$452.6$0.0$0.0

Payroll&earnedwageaccess$0.0$286.2$0.0$419.0$0.0$0.0

Accounting,tax&compliance$281.8$789.7$8,400.0$323.9$0.0$0.0

Wallets&superapps$0.0$80.0$20.7$320.0$0.0$0.0

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024

4

PitchBookAnalystNote:FintechM&AReview:Middle-MarketValuationAnalysis

PEbuyouts

Q2fintechbuyoutsslowsignificantly,butTTMdealcountishealthy:PEfintech

buyoutsdeceleratedtoanestimated12dealsinQ2,down57%fromQ1’s28

estimatedbuyoutsanddown37%fromQ4’s19estimatedbuyouts.Q2’s12buyouts

wereessentiallyflatcomparedwiththeprioryear,whenQ22023logged11buyouts.

Still,thepast12monthshavebeenhealthy,with68estimatedfintechbuyouts,

comparedwith2023’s55,2022’s62,2021’s104,and2020’s72buyouts.

WewillneedIPOsandcorporateM&Atocomebackinadditiontolowerrates:

Lowerrates,absentarecession,willboostPEbuyouts.However,thatwillonlygoso

far.Toignitethebuyoutmarket,wewillalsoneedIPOsandcorporateM&A.These

wouldcreatedistributionstoLPs,whichwouldinturnequipLPswithdrypowderfor

newbuyoutfunds,whichwouldmakeacquisitions.

QuarterlyenterprisefintechPEbuyoutactivity

$1630

$14

$12

$10

25

20

$815

$6

$4

$2

10

5

$00

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2

20202021202220232024*

Dealvalue($B)DealcountEstimateddealcount

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024

DespiteQ2’sflatteningbuyoutcountfollowingastrongQ4andQ1,therehavebeen

severallargebuyoutsoverthepast12months,includingNuveiandWorldpay.The

takeaway:PElikesfintech/paymentsandwillcontinuetomaketheseacquisitions.

Bothpaymentsandfintechcontinuetoprovidehealthyrevenuegrowthand

improvingmargins.

5

PitchBookAnalystNote:FintechM&AReview:Middle-MarketValuationAnalysis

FintechandpaymentsbuyoutsinQ22024*

CompanyDealvalue($M)ClosedateSegmentSubsegmentHQlocation

Copperleaf$731.4June11CapitalmarketsN/AVancouver,Canada

SonaN/AJune7PaymentsPaymentplatforms&POSBedford,Canada

SpringbrookSoftwareN/AJune5CFOsoftwareBudgeting&forecastingAmericanFork,US

STATRecoveryServicesN/AMay13CFOsoftwareExpensemanagement&AP/ARautomationBentonville,US

CoinlessN/AMay13PaymentsPaymentplatforms&POSSaltLakeCity,US

FluenceTechnologiesN/AMay9CFOsoftwareBudgeting&forecastingToronto,Canada

WashCardSystemsN/AApril1PaymentsPaymentplatforms&POSCenterville,US

Nuvei$6,300.0April1PaymentsPaymentplatforms&POSMontreal,Canada

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024

OurPEbuyoutleaguetableshowsthatthreePEarchetypesdominatefintechand

paymentsbuyouts:software-andtechnology-specificPEfirms,suchasThoma

BravoandFranciscoPartners;generalistswiththreetofivefocusareas,suchas

TAAssociatesandParthenonCapitalPartners;andbigPE,suchasBlackstone,

Carlyle,andKKR.

FintechandpaymentsPEleaguetable(2020-Q22024)*

InvestorDealcountGeneralist/specialistInvestortypeHQlocation

TAAssociatesManagement17GeneralistwithfocusPE/buyoutMassachusetts,US

ParthenonCapitalPartners15GeneralistwithfocusPE/buyoutMassachusetts,US

GenstarCapital11GeneralistwithfocusPE/buyoutCalifornia,US

Accel-KKR9GeneralistPE/buyoutCalifornia,US

FranciscoPartners9SpecialistPE/buyoutCalifornia,US

ThomaBravo9SpecialistPE/buyoutIllinois,US

AudaxPrivateDebt8N/AMezzanineNewYork,US

CorsairCapital8SpecialistPE/buyoutNewYork,US

LovellMinnickPartners8SpecialistPE/buyoutPennsylvania,US

Blackstone8GeneralistPE/buyoutNewYork,US

GreatHillPartners8GeneralistwithfocusPE/buyoutMassachusetts,US

TheCarlyleGroup8GeneralistPE/buyoutWashington,DC,US

AquilineCapitalPartners8SpecialistPE/buyoutNewYork,US

Hg7SpecialistPE/buyoutN/A

InsightPartners7SpecialistGrowth/expansionNewYork,US

LLRPartners7GeneralistwithfocusGrowth/expansionPennsylvania,US

ClearlakeCapitalGroup7GeneralistwithfocusPE/buyoutCalifornia,US

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024

6

PitchBookAnalystNote:FintechM&AReview:Middle-MarketValuationAnalysis

Corporatefintechacquisitions

CorporateacquisitionsremainedmutedinQ2,with26estimateddeals,compared

with26dealsinQ12024and25inQ22023.TheTTMcorporateacquisitioncount

wasestimatedat98deals,comparedwith91in2023,120in2022,165in2021,and

88in2020.

Asdiscussedabove,corporateM&Awilllikelytaketwoormoreyearsto“come

back.”Weexpectacquisitionsbycorporatestobedrivenbythreefactors:CEO

confidence,whichisheavilyinfluencedbysuccessivestockpricegainsoveryears;

consistenteconomicandcompanyoperatingperformanceovertime;andFOMO

withwatchingpeersmakeacquisitions.

Quarterlyenterprisefintechcorporateacquisitionactivity

$1450

$12

$10

40

30

$8

$6

20

$4

$2

10

$00

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2

20202021202220232024*

Dealvalue($B)DealcountEstimateddealcount

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024

CorporateM&AinQ22024*

CompanyDealvalue($M)ClosedateSegmentSubsegmentHQlocation

LeaseQN/AMay7AlternativelendingMarketplacelendingBurlington,US

StackSourceN/AApril8AlternativelendingRealestatelendingNewYork,US

Tegus$930.0June11CapitalmarketsData&analyticsChicago,US

T-REXN/AApril24CapitalmarketsData&analyticsNewYork,US

BasisN/AJune17CFOsoftwareBudgeting&forecastingSanFrancisco,US

Paymerang$475.0May8CFOsoftwareExpensemanagement&

AP/ARautomationRichmond,US

AcumaticaN/AMay1CFOsoftwareAccounting,tax&complianceSeattle,US

TeampayN/AApril25CFOsoftwareExpensemanagement&

AP/ARautomationNewYork,US

HyperplaneN/AJune26FinancialservicesinfrastructureEnterprisearchitecturePaloAlto,US

AtomFinanceN/AMay15FinancialservicesinfrastructurePlatforms&APIsNewYork,US

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024

7

PitchBookAnalystNote:FintechM&AReview:Middle-MarketValuationAnalysis

CorporateM&AinQ22024(continued)*

CompanyDealvalue($M)ClosedateSegmentSubsegmentHQlocation

ValeyoN/AApril8FinancialservicesinfrastructureEnterprisearchitectureBurnaby,Canada

RooamN/AJune21PaymentsPaymentplatforms&POSWashington,DC,US

iCGPay$17.0June3PaymentsPaymentplatforms&POSFortMyers,US

Exceleron$50.0May21PaymentsPaymentplatforms&POSDallas,US

ApogeePaymentSystemsN/AMay17PaymentsPaymentplatforms&POSMukwonago,US

FlashtractN/AMay8PaymentsPaymentplatforms&POSAtlanta,US

TiliaN/AApril23PaymentsPaymentplatforms&POSWestHollywood,US

SumatraN/AJune26RegtechCrimesurveillance&

frauddetectionAustin,US

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024

OurcorporateM&Aleaguetableisdominatedbylargecorporatesknownfor

programmaticM&A.Theprimaryacquirertypesincludeemergingleaders,such

asRobinhood,Coinbase,Nubank,andSoFi,whichareacquiringinordertolaunch

entirelynewproductsthatcanbecross-soldtocustomers;andlegacypayments

andbanktechproviders,suchasFiservandFIS,whichwanttodeepenrelationships

withexistingcustomersbutalsotomaintainrevenueandprofitabilitygrowth.

FintechandpaymentscorporateM&Aleaguetable(2020-Q22024)*

InvestorDealcountInvestortypeHQlocation

Fiserv9CorporationWisconsin,US

Nuvei5CorporationQuébec,Canada

Mastercard4CorporationNewYork,US

Corpay4CorporationGeorgia,US

Stripe4VC-backedcompanyCalifornia,US

RealtimeElectronicPayments4CorporationGeorgia,US

Envestnet4CorporationPennsylvania,US

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024

8

PitchBookAnalystNote:FintechM&AReview:Middle-MarketValuationAnalysis

ForPitchBookclients,weprovideafull

Proprietaryfintechvaluationsformiddle-marketand

lower-middle-marketPE

listofcompany-by-companyvaluation

multiplesforcreatingmiddle-market

andlower-middle-marketcomps.

Emailjames.ulan@for

moreinformation.

B2B(enterprise)paymentsleadsinvaluation:Byexaminingtheratioofacquisition

pricestoemployeeheadcount(aproxyforrevenueandprofitability)from2020to

Q22024,wedeterminedthatpaymentscompaniesloggedthehighestvaluationsat

1.61x,followedbyfinancialservicesinfrastructureat1.40x,capitalmarketsat1.34x,

CFOstackat1.26x,wealthtechat1.06x,regtechat0.86x,andfinallyalternative

lendingat0.86x.

Rangeofacquisitionprice/employeecountratiosbysegment(2020-Q22024)*

3.0x

2.5x

2.0x

1.61x

1.5x

1.40x1.34x

1.26x

1.06x

0.86x0.86x

1.0x

0.5x

0x

PaymentsFinancialservices

infrastructure

Capital

markets

CFOstackWealthtechRegtechAlternative

lending

Median75thpercentile25thpercentile

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024

Rangeofacquisitionprice/employeecountratiosbysegment(2020-Q22024)*

AverageMedian75thpercentile90thpercentile25thpercentile10thpercentile

Payments2.17x1.61x2.85x4.05x0.85x0.47x

Financialservicesinfrastructure2.14x1.40x2.90x4.87x1.05x0.65x

Capitalmarkets2.10x1.34x2.63x3.81x0.50x0.28x

CFOstack2.19x1.26x2.54x5.12x0.50x0.33x

Wealthtech1.55x1.06x1.66x2.95x0.71x0.49x

Regtech1.64x0.86x2.52x3.43x0.47x0.30x

Alternativelending1.55x0.86x2.01x3.37x0.30x0.21x

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024

9

PitchBookAnalystNote:FintechM&AReview:Middle-MarketValuationAnalysis

VC-backedfintechsuccessmeasures

B2B(enterprisepayments)outperformsonexitvalue:Foreachfintechsector,

wecompareddollarsinvestedinfirstfinancingroundstoeventualexitvalueto

determinewhichsubsectorsgeneratestrongreturnsforearlyinvestors.Enterprise

paymentsledwitha2.09xratio($1.5billionofexitvalueand$0.74billionoffirst-

roundfinancing),followedbyregtechat1.62x($0.37billionofexitvalueand$0.23

billionoffirst-roundfinancing),andconsumerpaymentsat1.55x($0.44billionof

exitvalueand$0.28billionoffirst-roundfinancing).

Theseratiosdonottellthefullstory,asmanysubsectorshavevaluableunicorns

thathavenotexited,suchasRampandBrexinCFOstack.Ouranalysislookedat

VC-backedfintechcompaniesthatreceivedtheirfirstfundingover2017to2020and

havesinceexited.

Fintechfirst-timefinancing,exit,andVC-backedvaluebysegment(2020-Q22024)*

First-timefinancingvalue($M)Successfulexitvalue($M)CurrentVC-backedvalue($M)Success%

Financialservicesinfrastructure$710.2$753.6$42,626.7106.1%

CFOsoftware$787.0$247.0$117,282.331.4%

Wealthtech$1,107.3$753.1$58,534.068.0%

Capitalmarkets$1,628.0$1,394.6$45,990.785.7%

Payments$739.8$1,548.3$109,340.7209.3%

Alternativelending$1,038.1$948.6$45,650.991.4%

Credit&banking$1,072.3$95.0$50,641.28.9%

Regtech$226.5$367.8$25,421.7162.4%

Consumerpayments$280.8$435.2$12,450.8155.0%

Commercialfinance$348.4$130.0$11,791.337.3%

Source:PitchBook•Geography:USandCanada•*AsofJune30,2024Note:ExitsarelimitedtocompaniesthathadtheirfirstVCroundbetween2017-2020.Suc