高盛-商品深度铜和黄金等 Commodity Views Go for Gold09032024

2September2024|6:01PMEDT

CommodityViews

GoforGold

nMoreselective,lessconstructive.Whileour2024DeficitsBasketperformed

wellthisyear,asofteningofcyclicalsupporttocommoditiesleadsustowardsamoreselectivetacticalapproachtocommodityinvesting.Tobeclear,westronglybelieveinthediversifyingroleofcommoditiesininvestmentportfoliosbasedonseveralstructuraldrivers,includingcommodities’hedgingroleagainstsupply

disruptions,notanuncommonoccurrenceinenergy.Thatsaid,tacticallywe

closeour2024DeficitsBasketrecommendationwithapotential8%gainand

focusonourhighestconvictionviewsinthecurrentenvironment,namelyhigherimpliedoilvolatility,longgoldandshortlong-datedEuropeannaturalgas.

nOilcaution.Chinadatathissummersuggestweakeningcyclicalsupportto

commoditydemand,andtooil/copperinparticular.Inoil,whileDMdemandhasbeenmodestlystrongerthanweexpected,itisdifficulttobuilddeficitswithoutstrongChinademand,especiallywhensupplyissurprisingtotheupside.Asa

result,we’vetakenamorecautiousstanceonoilandwerecommendthatoilproducershedgetheirexposurebybuyingputs.

nCopperrallydelayed.Incopperwe’veobservedsignificantpriceelasticityofbothsupplyanddemandthissummer.Asaresult,thesharpcopperinventorydepletionwehadexpectedwilllikelycomemuchlaterthanwepreviously

thought.Accordingly,wedelayourend-2024coppertargetof$12,000/tto

_

post-2025,implyinga2025copperforecastof$10,100/t,stillabovethisYTD’s$9231/t,butwellbelowourprevious$15,000expectation.

nGoforgold.Ourpreferrednear-termlongisgold.Itremainsourpreferredhedgeagainstgeopoliticalandfinancialrisks,withaddedsupportfromimminentFed

ratecutsandongoingEMcentralbankbuying.Wemaintainour2025targetof$2,700/tozandopenalonggoldtradingrecommendation.

nShortlong-datedTTF.Inenergy,weseeacleardirectionalviewinglobalgas,

thoughtothedownside.Specifically,weexpecttheupcomingwaveofglobal

LNGsupplytodriveEuropeannaturalgasprices(TTF)belowligniteeconomicstomanagestoragelevels,suggestingpricesbelow20EUR/MWh.ThisisnotyetfullypricedinTTFforwards,andweopenashort3Q27TTFtrading

recommendation.

SamanthaDart

+1(212)357-9428|

samantha.dart@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

DaanStruyven

+1(212)357-4172|

daan.struyven@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

LinaThomas

+44(20)7051-3062|lina.thomas@GoldmanSachsInternational

CallumBruce,CFA

+1(212)902-3053|callum.bruce@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

YuliaZhestkovaGrigsby

+1(646)446-3905|yulia.grigsby@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

HongcenWei

+1(212)934-4691|

hongcen.wei@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

AureliaWaltham

+44(20)7051-2547|

aurelia.waltham@

GoldmanSachsInternational

LaviniaForcellese

+44(20)7774-9243|

lavinia.forcellese@

GoldmanSachsInternational

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.

GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

GoforGold

1.Moreselective,lessconstructive.Latelastyearwerecommendeda2024DeficitsBasketthatweexpectedtobenefitfromsolidglobaleconomicgrowth,Fedinterestratecutsandsignificantbackwardationintheoilcurve.SolidUSgrowth,imminentFedcuts,andstrongoilcarryYTDhavedrivenasolid8%potentialgainonthisbasket.However,softer-than-expectedChinacommoditydemand,aswellasdownsideriskstoChina’s

forwardeconomicoutlook,leadustoamoreselective,lessconstructivetacticalviewofcommodities.Morespecifically,Chinaoildemandgrowthhasslowedonstructuralroadfuelswitchingandonpetrochemicaldemandweakness.Incopper,Chinainventories,

whichtypicallydrawfrom2Q,builtinstead,asaresultofaprice-drivenYoYdeclineinapparentChinademand.Fromamacroperspective,China’sJulydatawere

disappointing,withourGSChinaCurrentActivityindicatorshowingonly3.6%

annualizedgrowthinthemonth,wellbelowtheGovernment’stargetof“around5%”.WithChinatypicallyresponsiblefor2/3ofcommoditiesdemandgrowthbeforethe

pandemic,webelieveit’schallengingtobuildsignificantdeficitsinthesemarketswithoutstrongChinademand.

Tobeclear,westronglybelieveinthediversifyingroleofcommoditiesininvestment

portfoliosbasedonseveralstructuraldrivers,includingcommodities’hedgingrole

againstsupplydisruptions,notanuncommonoccurrenceinenergy,andthepotentialforsharpralliesinselectindustrialmetalsdrivenbyacombinationoflongsupplycyclesandstructuralgreenmetalsdemandgrowthassociatedwithenergysecurityand

decarbonizationinvestment.However,giventhecurrentsofteningcyclicalenvironment,

weopttotacticallycloseour2024DeficitsBaskettradingrecommendationwithapotentialgainof8%andfocusonourhighestconvictionviewsinthecurrent

environment,namelyhigherimpliedoilvolatility,longgoldandshortlong-datedEuropeangas.

Exhibit1:WithChina’sCAIatJust3.6%(Belowthe5%GovernmentTarget)andItsSignificantShareofGlobalCommodityDemandGrowth,BuildingSubstantialDeficitsWithoutStrongerChineseGrowthSeemsUnlikely

_

Source:NBS,EnergyInstitute,WBMS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

2September20242

GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

WeForecasta12%TotalReturnfortheGSCICommodityIndexin2024,WithaLowerReturnof5%Expectedin2025

GSForecast

S&PGSCICommodityIndex

2024

2024

S&PGSCI

Energy

IndustrialMetalsPreciousMetalsAgriculture

Livestock

BCOM

Totalreturnsaredisplayed.Theseincludethereturnsfromspotpricechanges,thecashreturnfromcollateral,andtherollyield.Givenwedonotcurrentlycoveragriculture,livestock,silverandzinc(justsuspended),weestimatespotreturnsasreturnsimpliedbyforwardsadjustedwiththehistoricalmedianriskpremium.Weestimaterollreturnsbasedonseasonaltimespreadsandthecurrentfuturescurveshapeforagriculture,livestock,naturalgas,andthemetals.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

2.Amorecautiousstanceonoil.WehaverecentlyreducedourrangeforBrentpricesby$5/bblto$70-85,andour2025averageBrentforecastto$77/bbl,reflectingupside

surprisestoOECDinventoriesandalowerfairvalueestimateforlong-datedprices.

OECDcommercialstockshavemovedsidewaysagainstourpreviousexpectationsof

summerdrawsfortworeasons.First,USliquidssupplyisbeatingexpectationson

ongoingefficiencygainsandaYoYsurgeinNaturalGasLiquids(NGL)supply.Second,

Chinademandgrowthhasslowedonstructuralroadfuelswitchingtowardspower(EVs)

DollarWeight

100

57

12

7

16

7

100

2023

-4

-5

-4

12

-8

0

-8

2022

26

42

-8

0

12

5

16

2025

5

5

16

5

-3

0

4

YTD

6

8

6

21

-9

10

1

12

20

6

23

-11

7

5

HistoricalPerformance

6

11

1

1

-2

-3

4

Balance

andnaturalgas(LNGtrucks)andonpetrochemicaldemandweakness.Specifically,ChinaoildemandhasbeendownYoYthissummer,leadingustorecentlyreviseourforecastfor2024globaloildemandgrowthto0.9mb/dfrom1.2mb/dpreviously.Onnet,wenowexpectasmallerdeficitthissummerandamarginally

bigger-than-previously-expectedsurplusin2025.Importantly,riskstoouroilpriceviewareskewedtothedownsidegivenhighsupplysparecapacity,potentialtradetensions,andthepossibilitythatOPECmayreturntothemarkethighersupplythanweexpectin2025.Thismorecautiousoutlooksuggeststhatoilpricesdeclinegently-shortofa

sustainablesupplyshock-aswellaslessfirmtimespreadsvspreviously,hence

weakeningrollreturnsforoilvswhatwe’veseenthisyear.Wecontinuetorecommendthatoilproducershedgetheirexposurebybuyingputs,whichstilllooksrelativelycheap.

_

2September20243

GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

Exhibit2:TheRoadFuelShiftFromOiltoPowerandLNGExplainstheBulkofSlowdowninChinaDemandGrowthin2024H1vs.2016-2019

kb/d

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

2016-2019DemandGrowth

DecelerationinChinaYear-Over-YearOilDemandGrowth:DecompositionbyDrivers

MacroandResidual

Reopening

Mobility

Recovery

PetrochemicalNormalization

RoadFleet

Switch:

EVsandLNG

IncreaseDecreaseTotal

2024H1DemandGrowth

kb/d

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Ourroadoildemandmodelimpliesa50kb/dlowerhitfromEVsgivenslightdifferencesindatasourcesforcarsales.Source:S&PGlobal,WoodMackenzie,IEA,Wind,HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit3:WeSeeRiskstoOurOilPriceForecastSkewedtoTheDownside

$/bbl

40

30

20

10

0

-10

_

-20

-30

-40

EstimatedPeakImpactonBrentOilPricein2025byRiskScenario

Timespreads

Long-datedpricesRiskpremium

$/bbl

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

Iransupply

Iransupply

China

USimposes

USimposes

Moderate

OPEC

falls1mb/d;

falls1mb/d;

demandflat

10%tariff

10%tariff;

recession;

reversesextra

noOPEC

OPEC

Fedresponds

OPEC

cuts2025

response

responds

responds

UpsidepriceriskDownsidepricerisk

EstimatedpeakimpactisrelativetoourbaselineforecastwithBrentcrudepricesat$77/bblforthe2025averageand$74/bblinDec2025.Fordetailed

definitionsoftheIran,tariff,andmoderaterecessionriskscenarios,seeDaanStruyvenandteam,OilAnalyst,\”TrumpScenarios:UpsideRisktoVolatility;DownsideRisktoPrices\”,July25,2024.Thesaturationofthebarsriseswithoursubjectiveprobabilityforeachriskscenario.

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

3.Copperrallydelayed.Incopperwe’veobservedsignificantpriceelasticityofbothsupplyanddemandwhenpricesspikedthispastspring.Specifically,refinedcopperproductionremainedelevateddespiteminesupplyissuesinkeycopperproducing

countries.Onthedemandside,ChinaapparentcopperconsumptiondroppedYoYinMarchanddeepenedthatdropintoearlysummer.Asaresult,evenwithChina

2September20244

GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

(end-user)greenmetalsdemandrealizingstrongerthanweexpected,Chinacopperinventoriesbuiltin2Q24,insharpcontrastwithseasonaltrendsandthecopper

inventorydepletionwehadpreviouslyexpectedfor2024.Asaresult,andgiventhe

continuedweaknessinChina’spropertysector,webelievethatcopperinventory

depletion-anditsaccompanyingpricerally-willlikelycomemuchlaterthanwe

previouslythought.Accordingly,wedelayourend-2024coppertargetof$12,000/tto

post-2025,atimingclosertoourexpectedpeakinglobalcoppermineproduction.Thisimpliesanaverage2025copperforecastof$10,100/t,stillwellabovethisyear-to-date’s$9231/t,butsignificantlybelowourprevious$15,000expectation.Further,givenrisingglobalvisiblecopperinventoriessummertodateandtheongoingChinagrowth

concerns,wetakethisopportunitytocloseourlong-standinglongcoppertrading

recommendationwithapotentialgainof41%andwilllooktopotentiallyre-openthis

tradeatalatertime.Wemaintainourstructuralviewthatgreenmetalsdemandgrowthandthelong-cycle’snatureofcoppersupply,alongwithitsdeclininginvestment,will

ultimatelysetthestageforinventorydepletionand,hence,scarcitypricing.

Exhibit4:WithRisingCopperInventories,WeCloseOurLongCopperTradeButMaintainThatGreenMetalsDemandandtheCopperSector’sLongSupplyCycleWillEventuallyLeadtoInventoryDepletionandScarcityPricing

_

Left:GlobalcoppervisiblecathodestocksincludeLMEandCOMEXstocks,Chinasocialstocks,includingSHFE,andstocksinbondedareas.Source:Wind,Bloomberg,SMM,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

4.Lessfirmoutlookforotherindustrialmetalsaswell.Thedelayedcopperrally

likelydelaysincrementalsupporttoaluminumdemand.Againstabackdropofalready

elevatedaluminuminventories,sequentiallyrisingChinaproductionanddecliningChinaimports,andgiventhedownsideriskstoChinaeconomicgrowthdiscussedabove,wealsodelayourprevious$2600/tyear-endtargetforaluminumtowardsend-2025.

Accordingly,welowerour2025aluminumforecastto$2540/t,from$2850/tpreviously.UpsideriskstothisforecastcomefromChina’saluminumproductioncapacitycap

ultimatelydrivingareboundinChinaaluminumimports.Onthedownside,mainrisks

arethatweaker-than-expectedWesterndemandforaluminumcontinuestodisappointin2H24,aswellasbroaderChinaGDPgrowthconcerns(weestimatethatglobaldemandgrowthforaluminumtendstoslowby2ppwhenChinagrowthslowsby1pp).Ferrous

2September20245

GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

metalsinventoriesarealsoelevated,withChinaironoreandsteelstockswellabove

year-agolevels.GivenourweakChinapropertysectoroutlook,webelieveChinasteel

demandhaslimitedupside,suggestingachallengingenvironmentforironoreprice

upsidefornow.Wemaintainabearishviewonnickel,andwesuspendforthemomentourzinccoverage.Accordingly,wereplaceour‘LongNewEconomy’(longcopperand

aluminum,shortnickelandzinc)withaversionwithoutzinc(longcopperandaluminum,shortnickel).1

Exhibit5:WeDelayOurAluminum$2600/tTargetto2025DuetoAlreadyElevatedStocksandChinaGrowthRisks,WhichAlsoLimitIronOre’sPriceUpsideAmidHighStockLevels

Left:GlobalvisiblealuminumstocksincludeLMEandCOMEXstocks,Chinasocialstocks,includingSHFE.

Source:Mysteel,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,Wind,SMM,Bloomberg

5.GoforGold.

_

Inthissoftercyclicalenvironment,goldstandsoutasthecommoditywherewehavethehighestconfidenceinnear-termupside.Morespecifically,wemaintainourbullish$2,700/toztargetforearly2025andweopenalonggoldtradingrecommendationforthreereasons:

1.Webelievethatthetriplingincentralbankpurchasessincemid-2022onfearsaboutUSfinancialsanctionsandUSsovereigndebtisstructuralandwillcontinue,

reportedorunreported.

2.ImminentFedratecutsarepoisedtobringWesterncapitalbackintothegold

market,acomponentlargelyabsentofthesharpgoldrallyobservedinthelasttwoyears.

3.Goldofferssignificanthedgingvaluetoportfoliosagainstgeopoliticalshocks

includingtariffs,Fedsubordinationrisk,anddebtfears.Ouranalysissuggestsan

upsideof15%ingoldpricesunderahypotheticalriseinfinancialsanctionsequaltotheriseseensince2021andasimilarupsideifUSCDSspreadswidenby1

1Tobeclear,wecloseourtradewithapotentialgainof13%andopenanewseparatetrade(longcopperandaluminum,shortnickel).

2September20246

GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

standarddeviation(13bps)amidrisingdebtconcerns.

Thatsaid,duetotheparticularlypricesensitiveChinesemarketdigestingtherecentpricerally,wehaveadjustedour$2,700targettoearly2025vsyear-end2024

previously.However,webelievethatthatsamepricesensitivityalsoinsuresagainsthypotheticallargepricedeclines,whichwouldlikelyreinvigorateChinesebuying.2

Exhibit6:WeSeeValueinLongGoldPositionsGivenHigherCentralBankDemandandHedgingValueAgainstGeopolitical/FinancialShocks(Sanctions,DebtFears,Tariffs,FedSubordinationRisk)

Rightpanel:WequantifyfinancialsanctionsastheGDP-weightedcountofrelatedUSexecutiveordersandsimulateariseinourindexby48points,similartotheincreasefrom2021topresent.ThisisakintotwoadditionalsanctionsonChinaorsixonIndia.Inouranalysis,weincludeUSfinancialsanctions-relatedExecutiveOrders(SREOs)effectivebetween2000andApril23,2024.Theexecutive

ordersaresourcedfromOFACandarepubliclyavailableon.Theselectionoffinancialexecutiveordersfollowstheapproachoutlinedinthebook“BuckingtheBuck”byProfessorDanielMcDowell.Sanctionintensitiesarenotdifferentiated;allareweightedequally.WeusetheUS5-yearCDSspreadasaproxyforUSdebtorglobalfinancialdollarsystemfears,andsimulatea

onestandarddeviationincrease,whichcorrespondsto13bps,thatpersistsforoneyear.Thisrisemirrorsthespikein2023Q1aroundtheUSdebtceilingdebate,andwouldleadtoaCDSlevelsimilartotheoneobservedinthe2011debtceilingcrisis.

Source:WorldGoldCouncil,IMF,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

6.Abearishcycleforglobalgas.Europe’sscarsfromthe2022energycrisishaveyettofullyheal,asillustratedbyitsstilldepressedindustrialactivity,anditsvulnerabilitytonaturalgasandelectricitypricespikesthiscomingwinter.However,wehavelong

_

arguedthatlowerenergypriceslieinthehorizon.Tobeclear,anupcomingwaveof

globalliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)supplycapacityadditionsisabouttohitthemarket

startingin2025,andgrowingsignificantlythroughmostofthesecondhalfofthis

decade.Withthescaleofthesesupplyadditions,whichweexpecttoreachmorethan

200mtpaby2029,significantlyaboveAsia’saverageannualLNGdemandgrowthnear20mtpa,itisclearthatthemarketwillneedtoincentivizeincrementaldemandvia

lowergasprices,sothisgrowingLNGsupplycanfindahome.3Thismeansthat,asLNGsupplygrows,atleastinitially,left-overcargoesunwantedbytherestoftheworldwill

lookforahomeinEurope.AsLNGsupplyavailabilitygrows,Europeangasbalanceswillsoften,pressuringEuropeangasprices(TTF)lowertolookforincrementaldemandin

ordertomanageitsstorageawayfromcongestion.Thisinourviewmeansthat,atthe

2Aswehaverecentlyshown,theChinesemarketremainsstructurallyresilient,drivenbylowerChineseyieldsandfearassociatedwiththeslumpingpropertymarket,whichoffsetthedragongolddemandfromlowerincomeandthusreduceddiscretionaryspendingonjewelry.

3LNGcannotbestoredintankersforalongperiodoftimewithoutlosingcargovalueowingto‘boiloff’.Typically,LNGfloatingstorageonlylastsforuptotwomonthsatatime.

2September20247

GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

veryleast,gaspriceswilllooktomaximizefuelsubstitutionawayfrombothhardcoal

andlignite(wherethemarkethasbalancedforthepasttwosummers)bypricingbelow20EUR/MWh(maxligniteswitchingeconomics)onasustainablebasis.

Importantly,shouldEuropeanbalancesstilllookcongestedevenatsuchlowerprices,

TTFandLNGpriceswilllikelybepressuredfurtherdowntoincentivizeincremental

price-sensitiveLNGdemandelsewhereintheworld.Ifthedemandresponseisnothighenough,TTFandLNGpricesmighthavetofallenoughtoincentivizetemporaryUS

naturalgasexportshut-instobalancetheglobalmarket.Wesawasimilarscenarioplayoutin2020,althoughatthattimethedriverwasacollapseindemand,vsasurgein

supply.Theendgameisthesameinourview,however,withthemarginalLNGexporter(theUS4)asthemainswingsupplier,potentiallyhavingto(temporarily)curtailLNG

exportssharply.

Exhibit7:AnUpcomingWaveofLNGSupplyCapacityisAbouttoHittheMarketStartingin2025

_

SanctionedprojectsareprojectsthathavereachedFID,withsufficientfundingtomoveaheadintoprojectconstruction.Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

4ThegastoproduceUSLNGisboughtfromtheUSgrid,typicallyatHenryHub+prices.ThismeansthattheUSvariablecostofLNGproductionishigherthanmost,ifnotall,otherLNGexportersthatpreviously

investedinupstreaminfrastructure,andcurrentlyfaceoperationalcostsmuchclosertoliftingcosts(typicallybelow$1/mmBtu).

2September20248

GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

Exhibit8:AsMoreLNGBecomesAvailable,TTFWillLooktoMaximizeLigniteSubstitutionByPricingBelow20EUR/MWh,WhichIsNotYetFullyPricedIntoTTFForwards

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

_

2September20249

GoldmanSachsCommodityViews

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,SamanthaDart,DaanStruyven,LinaThomas,CallumBruce,CFA,YuliaZhestkovaGrigsby,HongcenWei,AureliaWalthamandLaviniaForcellese,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfluencedbyconsiderationsofthefirm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

Disclosures

Regulatorydisclosures

DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations

Seecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasa

principalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.

Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconflictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.

Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analyst

asofficerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbe

associatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.

AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates

Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaffiliatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisdefinedinthe

BankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.In

producingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedbythecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisappropriateandreasonableinthespecificcircumstancesrelatingtothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsanyfin