全球国有投资者发展情况分析报告-外文版培训课件

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REGIONSInflationinIndiaCHAPTER

01OverviewAnnualinflationrateforconsumerpricesworldwidefrom2000to2023,byregionorcontinent(withaforecastuntil2025)Annualinflationrateworldwide2000-2023,byregionorcontinentWorldwideAsiaandPacificEuropeNorthAmericaAfricaMiddleEastLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%3Description:TheinflationrateforbothAfrica,theMiddleEast,andLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanreachedmorethan12percentin2023.Amongtheprovidedcontinentsorregions,AsiaandthePacifichadthelowestinflationratethatyear.ConsumerpricesincreasedaroundtheworldfollowingtheCOVID-19pandemicandtheRussianinvasionofUkraine.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2000to2024;*ForecastReadmoreSource(s):IMFInflationrateintheBRICScountriesfrom2000to2028(comparedtothepreviousyear)InflationrateintheBRICScountries2000-2028BrazilChinaIndiaRussiaSouthAfrica25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%4Description:Since2000,ChinahasgenerallyhadthemoststableinflationrateoftheBRICSbloc,withannualchangefluctuatingbetweennegativeoneandsixpercent.Incontrast,Russia'sinflationratesreachedthehighestlevelsinthepasttwodecades,particularlyintheearly2000s,duringthefinancialcrisisof2008,andafter2014whenitseconomywasaffectedbythedropininternationaloilpricesandthesanctionsimposedfortheannexationofCrimea.ReadmoreNote(s):2000to2022;*Estimate.Figureshavebeenrounded.ReadmoreSource(s):IMFThe20countrieswiththelargestproportionoftheglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)basedonPurchasingPowerParity(in2022Countrieswiththelargestproportionofglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)2022ShareofglobalGDP0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%ChinaUnitedStatesIndia18.44%15.54%7.26%Japan3.75%GermanyRussiaIndonesiaBrazil3.28%2.91%2.46%2.34%2.27%2.26%UnitedKingdomFranceTürkiye2.05%1.87%1.87%MexicoItaly5Description:Thestatisticshowsthe20countrieswiththelargestproportionoftheglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)basedonPurchasingPowerParity(Note(s):WorldwideSource(s):IMFin2022.In2022,Germanyhadanestimatedshareofabout3.28percentoftheglobalGDP.

ReadmoreIndia:Inflationratefrom1987to2029(comparedtothepreviousyear)InflationrateinIndia202916%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%6Description:ThestatisticshowstheinflationrateinIndiafrom1987to2023,withprojectionsupuntil2029.Theinflationrateiscalculatedusingthepriceincreaseofadefinedproductbasket.Thisproductbasketcontainsproductsandservices,onwhichtheaverageconsumerspendsmoneythroughouttheyear.Theyincludeexpensesforgroceries,clothes,rent,power,telecommunications,recreationalactivitiesandrawmaterials(e.g.gas,oil),aswellasfederalfeesandtaxes.In2023,theinflation[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):*Estimate.Figureshavebeenroundedtoprovideabetterunderstandingofthestatistic.ReadmoreSource(s):IMFConsumerpriceinflationrateacrossIndiaduringfrom2022-2024MonthlyCPIinflationrateinIndia20248.5%8.0%7.44%7.41%7.5%7.0%6.5%6.0%5.5%5.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%7.04%6.95%6.71%6.52%6.01%5.88%5.66%5.55%5.1%5.02%4.31%Jan

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20247Description:AsofFebruary2024,consumerpriceindex(CPI)inflationinIndiaeasedto5.09percentfrom5.1percentinJanuary.FebruarymarksthesixthstraightmonththattheinflationstayedbelowthesixpercentuppertolerancebandofreserveBankofIndia.CPIisthemainmeasureofinflationinIndia.ReadmoreNote(s):India;January2022toFebruary2024Source(s):MOSPI;TradingEconomicsMedianforecastofinflationratesacrossIndiafrom4thquarteroffinancialyear2024to3rdquarterof2025,byindexEstimatedquarterlyinflationinIndiaQ4FY2024-Q3FY2025,byindexInflationrateQ3FY2025Q2FY20250%Q1FY20251%Q4FY20242%3%4%5%6%4.9%3.8%ConsumerPriceIndexcombined(general)CPIcombinedexcludingfood,beverages,tobacco,panandfuel/lightWholesalePriceIndexallcommodities5.2%5.1%4.3%3.9%3.7%3.7%3.7%3%3.1%1%2.7%2.1%Non-foodmanufacturedproductsWPI1.3%0.1%8Description:HeadlineCPIinflation(year-on-year)isexpectedtomoderatetoaround3.8percentinthesecondquarteroffinancialyear2025andincreaseinthethirdquarter.CPIexcludingfood,beverages,tobaccoandfuel/lightwasprojectedtobe4.3percentinthatquarter.ReadmoreNote(s):India;Q2FY2023toQ1FY2024;45panellistsSource(s):ReserveBankofIndiaCostinflationindexinIndiafromfinancialyears2002to2024CostinflationindexinIndiaFY2002-202440034835033131730128930025020015010050280272264254240220200184167148FY137FY129FY122FY117FY113FY109FY105FY100FYFYFYFYFYFYFYFYFYFYFYFYFYFYFY2002

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20249Description:Duringthefinancialyear2023,thecostinflationindex(CII)inIndiastoodat348.Thiswasanincreasefromthepreviousyear'sfigureof331.TheCIIisusedtocomputeanasset'sinflation-adjustedcostprice.Itisusedtoassesstheinflationvalueofassetslikeland,houses,jewelryetc.ReadmoreNote(s):India;FY2002toFY2024;Baseyear=2001Source(s):IncomeTaxDepartmentValueofhouseholddebtacrossIndiafrom2010to2022(inbillionU.S.dollars)HouseholddebtvalueacrossIndia2010-2022500450400350300250200440.99392.9335.6308.94286.42240.85202.13183.62015169.52159.812013150.462011147.41201215010050124.34201002014201620172018201920202021202210Description:Inthefinancialyear2022,India'shouseholddebtreachedaround441billionU.S.dollars,anincreasefrompreviousyearfigures.India'shouseholddebthaswitnessedanupwardtrendinthelastdecade.Householddebtincludesconsumerdurables,housingandotherpersonalloans.ReadmoreNote(s):India;2010to2022Source(s):CEICCHAPTER

02ConsumerPriceIndexConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)inurbanandruralIndiafromfinancialyear2022to2024,bymonthMonthlyconsumerPriceIndex(CPI)inIndiaFY2022-2024AllIndiaUrbanRural190185180175181.9181179.9178.8178.1177.4177.9176.7175.3177.9176.8175.6177.1175.7174.1175.3174.3173.1173.6172.6171.4170.8170.1169.2170165160155150167166.1165.1166.7166.1165.5166.3165.5164.6163.6162.9162.2162.1161.3160.41588157.612Description:ThecombinedconsumerpriceindexacrossIndiawas186.3asofJuly2023.RuralIndiaregisteredahigherCPIascomparedtourbanIndia.TheruralCPIhasconsistentlystayedabovethanurbanCPIduringtherecordedperiod.CPImeasurestheoverallchangeinpricesofgoodsandservicesforconsumers.ReadmoreNote(s):India;FY2022toFY2024;Baseyear2012=100Source(s):LabourBureauIndia;MinistryofFinance(India);MOSPI;ReserveBankofIndiaConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)offoodandbeverageacrossurbanandruralIndiafromMarch2022toMarch2023CPIoffoodandbeverageinIndia2022-2023RuralUrbanAllIndia185180175170165160March2022

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March20232023*13Description:InMarch2023,theConsumerPriceIndexforfoodandbeveragesacrossurbanareasinthesouthAsiancountryofIndiawas180.7.Thismeantthatthepricehadincreasedbyapproximately80percentsince2012.TheCPImeasuresthechangeinconsumerpricesofgoodsandservicespurchasedbyhouseholdsacrossIndiaovertime.ReadmoreNote(s):India;March2022toMarch2023;Baseyear2012=100;*Provisional.ReadmoreSource(s):MOSPIConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)offuelandlightacrossurbanandruralIndiafromMarch2022toMarch2023CPIoffuelandlightinIndia2022-2023RuralUrbanAllIndia185180175170165160March2022

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March20232023*14Description:AsofMarch2023,theConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)forfuelandlightacrossIndiawasnearly182,meaningithadincreasedbyapproximately82percentsince2012.TheCPImeasuresthechangeinconsumerpricesofgoodsandservicespurchasedbyhouseholdsacrossIndiaovertime.ReadmoreNote(s):India;March2022toMarch2023;Baseyear2012=100;*Provisional.ReadmoreSource(s):MOSPIFoodinflationrateinIndiafromApril2021toFebruary2024FoodinflationratepermonthIndia2021-202414%11.51%12%10%8%9.94%9.5%8.7%8.6%7.75%

7.62%6.75%8.66%8.3%8.38%7.84%7.68%7.01%6.62%6.61%5.94%5.95%4.79%3.84%2.96%5.85%5.43%6%5.1%5%4.67%4.19%4.49%4%4%4%3.1%2%1.9%0.8%0.7%2%0%15Description:ThefoodinflationinIndiafellto8.66percentyear-on-yearinFebruary2024.In2023,thefoodinflationpeakedinJulyatover11percent.ReadmoreNote(s):India;April2021toFebruary2024Source(s):MOSPI;TradingEconomicsConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)ofhouseholdgoodsandservicesacrossurbanandruralIndiafromMarch2022toMarch2023CPIofhouseholdgoodsandservicesIndia2022-2023RuralUrbanAllIndia180175170165160155March2022

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March20232023*16Description:InMarch2023,theConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)forhouseholdgoodsandservicesacrossurbanareasinIndiawasabove169,meaningithadincreasedbyapproximately63percentsince2012.TheCPImeasuresthechangeinconsumerpricesofgoodsandservicespurchasedbyhouseholdsacrossIndiaovertime.ReadmoreNote(s):India;March2022toMarch2023;Baseyear2012=100;*Provisional.ReadmoreSource(s):MOSPIConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)ofhousingacrossurbanIndiafromfinancialyear2020to2023ConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)ofhousinginIndiaFY2020-20235.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%FY2020FY2021FY2022FY202317Description:Duringfinancialyear2023,theconsumerpriceindex(CPI)forurbanhousingincreasedto4.3percentfrom3.7percentcomparedtotheprecedingfinancialyear.However,theCPIwasstilllowerthanindexvaluein2020.

ReadmoreNote(s):India;FY2020to2023;Baseyear2012=100Source(s):ReserveBankofIndiaCHAPTER

03WholesalePriceIndexWholesalePriceIndexofprimarygoodsacrossIndiafromfinancialyear2013to2023WholesalePriceIndexofprimaryarticlesinIndiaFY2013-2023190180170160150140176.8160.7145.7143.3134.2130.6128.9130120110100125.1124.6122.4111.4FY2013FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY202319Description:TheWholesalePriceIndexofprimarygoodsacrossIndiaduringfinancialyear2023wasover176.Thepriceindexvalueofgoodsincreasedbyabout76percentfromthebaseyearof2012.Anoverallincreaseinthepriceindexwasseenovertheyearsfromfinancialyear2013inthecountry.ReadmoreNote(s):India;FY2013toFY2023;baseyearFY2012=100Source(s):OEA(India)WholesalePriceIndexoffuelandpoweracrossIndiafromfinancialyear2013to2023WholesalePriceIndexoffuelandpowerinIndiaFY2013-2023165155145135125159.5124.6114.7115107.7107.1104.1102.2105959493.386.586.38575FY2013FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY202320Description:TheWholesalePriceIndexoffuelandpoweracrossIndiaduringfinancialyear2023stoodat159.5.Thepriceindexvalueofgoodsincreasedbyabout59percentfromthebaseyearof2012.Anoverallincreaseinthepriceindexwasseenovertheyearsfromfinancialyear2013inthecountry.ReadmoreNote(s):India;FY2013toFY2023;baseyearFY2012=100Source(s):OEA(India)WholesalePriceIndexofmanufacturedproductsacrossIndiafromfinancialyear2013to2023WholesalePriceIndexofmanufacturedproductsinIndiaFY2013-2023145140135130125120115142.6135121.5118.3117.9113.8111.2110.7109.2108.5110105100105.3FY2013FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY202321Description:Attheendoffiscalyear2023,theWholesalePriceIndexofmanufacturedproductsacrossIndiawasapproximately143.Anoverallincreaseinthepriceindexwasseenovertheyearsfromfinancialyear2013inthecountry.

ReadmoreNote(s):India;FY2013toFY2023;baseyearFY2012=100Source(s):OEA(India)WholesalePriceIndexoffoodproductsacrossIndiafromfinancialyear2013to2023WholesalePriceIndexoffoodproductsinIndiaFY2013-2023170160150140130165.3157.9141.4133.9128.6127.4125.4120110100116.2114.5114.1108.7FY2013FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY202322Description:TheWholesalePriceIndexoffoodproductsmanufacturingacrossIndiaduringfinancialyear2023wasover165.Anoverallincreaseinthepriceindexwasseenovertheyearsfromfinancialyear2013inthecountry.

ReadmoreNote(s):India;FY2013toFY2023;baseyearFY2012=100Source(s):OEA(India)CHAPTER

04ImpactChangeinpricesofitemsinIndiainDecember2023ItemsleadingtoinflationinIndia2023,bytypeIncreaseinprices-20%Vegetables-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%27.6%PulsesandproductsSpices20.7%19.7%Fruits11.1%9.9%CerealsandproductsMeatandfish2%Oilandfats1.2%TransportandcommunicationFuelandlight-1%-15%24Description:Attheendof2023,vegetablepriceswitnessedapriceriseofover27percent,thehighestamongothercommodities.Thecategorywasfollowedbypulsesandproductswhichwitnessedapriceriseofover20percentduringthesameperiod.Oilsandfatswhichcontributedthemosttoinflationin2022,witnessedadeclineof15percentinprices.ReadmoreNote(s):India;December2023Source(s):MOSPI;TimesofIndiaConsumerspendinginIndiafrom2ndquarterof2018to4thquarterof2023(inbillionIndianrupees)ConsumerspendinginIndiaQ22018-Q4202327,00026,00025,00024,00023,00025,602.0324,78724,00024,260.9823,335.0123,384.1622,80022,981.2321,823.5722,292.6721,888.6821,570.9120,884.4222,00021,00020,00019,00018,00017,00021,218.3920,543.3520,334.0320,0932.102,048.5919,365.0818,882.5818,743.9818,574.618,221.02Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q42018

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202325Description:ConsumerspendingacrossIndiaamountedtoover25.6trillionrupeesbytheendofthefourthquarterof2023.Itreachedanall-timehighduringtherecordedperiod.

ReadmoreNote(s):India;Q22018toQ42023Source(s):MOSPI;TradingEconomicsCostoflivingindexinIndia2023,byleadingcitiesCostoflivingindexinIndia2023,bycityIndexscore051015202530NoidaGurgaonMumbaiBengaluruHyderabadNaviMumbaiDelhi27.726.925.925.625.425.325.2AhmedabadSurat25.124.324.3PuneVadodaraJaipurChennai23.923.623.326Description:AsofJuly2023,NoidaandGurgaon,satellitecitiesofDelhiandpartoftheNationalCapitalRegion(NCR),hadthehighestcostoflivinginIndiaat27.7and26.9pointsrespectively.TheywerefollowedbyMumbai,Bengaluru,andHyderabad.

ReadmoreNote(s):India;2023Source(s):NumbeoReporateoftheReserveBankofIndia(RBI)fromJanuary2014toJune2023ReserveBankofIndia'sreporate2014-20238.5%8%8.0%7.5%7.0%6.5%6.0%5.5%5.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%7.5%6.75%6.5%6.25%6.25%6.25%5.9%5.75%5.15%4.9%4%4%27Description:InJune2023,thereporatesetbyReserveBankofIndiastoodat6.5percent.InMay2022,thereporatewas4.4percentafterwhichitspikedcontinuously.

ReadmoreNote(s):India;January2014toJune2023Source(s):BankBazaarYieldon10-yeargovernmentbondsinthelargesteconomiesworldwideasofMarch2024,bycountryWorldwide10-yeargovernmentbondyieldbycountry2024Yield0%5%10%15%20%25%30%TurkeyNigeria27.28%18.41%Russia13.29%Brazil10.78%Mexico9.52%IndiaIndonesiaPoland7.03%6.72%5.32%Israel4.17%4.09%3.97%3.95%UnitedStatesAustraliaUnitedKingdomItaly3.58%28Description:AsofMarch12,2024,themajoreconomywiththehighestyieldon10-yeargovernmentbondswasTurkey,withayieldof27.28percent.ThisisduetotherisksinvestorstakewheninvestinginTurkey,notablyduetoꢀhighinflationratespotentiallyeradicatinganyprofitsmadewhenusingaforeigncurrencytoinvestinginsecuritiesdenominatedinTurkishlira.Ofthemajordevelopedeconomies,UnitedStateshadthehighestyieldon10-yeargovernmentbondsatthistimewith4.09percent,[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;March12,2024Source(s):Website()MonthlyexchangerateofIndianrupeeagainstU.SdollarfromJanuary2022toJuly2024MonthlyexchangerateofIndianrupeeagainstU.Sdollar2022-202485.583.583.24

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202429Description:InJanuary2024,thevalueofIndianrupeeperunitofU.S.dollaramountedto83.12Indianrupees.TheexchangerateofoneU.S.dollartoIndianrupeehadreached80Indianrupeesatthebeginningofthefourthquarterof2022from74.44INRatthebeginningoftheyear2022andstayedabove80rupeesthroughout2023.ReadmoreNote(s):India;January2022

toJan2024Source(s):IMF;OECDLendinginterestratesinIndiafromtheyear2007to2022LendinginterestratesinIndia2007-202214%12%10%8%13.3%13%12.2%10.6%10.3%10.3%10.2%10%9.7%9.5%9.5%9.5%9.2%8.7%8.6%8.3%6%4%2%0%200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202230Description:Intheyear2022,lendinginterestrateinIndiastoodat8.6percent.Thiswasaslightreductionfromlastyear'srateof8.6percent.Lendingratereferstothebankratethatgenerallycaterstotheshort-andmedium-termfinancingneedsoftheprivatesector.ReadmoreNote(s):India;2007to2022Source(s):IMF;WorldBankCHAPTER

05PublicopinionShareofconsumersexpectingthecostoffoodshoppingtoincreaseinthenextsixmonthsworldwideasofApril2023,bycountryConsumersexpectingfoodpricestoincreaseworldwidein2023,bycountryShareofrespondentsIncreasealot30%

40%Increasealittle50%0%10%20%60%70%80%90%Globalaverage*ArgentinaSouthAfricaTurkeyFranceHungaryGreatBritainColombiaAustraliaCanadaIndiaIsrael32Description:AccordingtoasurveycarriedoutbetweenMarchandApril2023in29countriesaroundtheworld,consumersinArgentinawerethemostlikelytobeexpectingfoodpricestoincreasealot.Almost60percentofArgentiniansurveyrespondentsstatedthattheywereexpectingthecostoftheirfoodshoppingtoincreasealotinthecomingsixmonths.Incomparison,some13percentofJapaneserespondentssaidthesame.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;

March24toApril7,2023;23,039respondents;18-75years;*Thesourcenotes:"The“GlobalCountryAverage”reflectstheaverageresultforallthecountriesandmarketswherethesurveywasconducted.Ithasnotbeen[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):IpsosImpactofinflationonhouseholdsinIndiaasofMarch2023ImpactofinflationonhouseholdsinIndia2023Shareofrespondents0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%34%40%IneedtobecautiousofmyexpensesIamsignificantlyimpactedbyrisingpricesIamnotimpactedatall29%26%Iamunabletocopewithinflation10%33Description:InasurveyconductedbyRakutenInsightinMarch2023inIndia,34percentofrespondentsinIndiastatedthattheyneedbecautiousoftheirexpensesduetoinflation.Incomparison,26percentofrespondentsreportedthattheywerenotimpactedbyinflation.ReadmoreNote(s):India;March9to31,2023;34,431respondents;16yearsandaboveSource(s):RakutenInsightImpactofinflationonhouseholdsacrossIndiaasofMarch2023,byageImpactofinflationonhouseholdsinIndia2023,byageShareofrespondents16to24years0%25to34years35to44years60%45to54years80%

100%55yearsandabove20%40%120%140%160%180%200%Ineedtobecautiousofmyexpenses32%36%38%40%42%IamsignificantlyimpactedbyrisingpricesIamnotimpactedatall26%29%31%26%32%35%36%22%17%15%Iamunabletocopewithinflation13%

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6%34Description:InasurveyconductedbyRakutenInsightinMarch2023inIndia,42percentofrespondentsaged55yearsandabovestatedthattheyneedbecautiousoftheirexpensesduetoinflation.Incomparison,15percentofrespondentsinthesameagegroupreportedthattheywerenotimpactedbyinflation.ReadmoreNote(s):India;March9to31,2023;34,431respondents;16yearsandaboveSource(s):RakutenInsightConsumeropiniononcopingwithinflationinIndiaasofMarch2023ConsumeropiniononcopingwithinflationinIndia2023Shareofrespondents0%5%10%

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55%Reducedfrequencyorstoppeddoinganyleisureactivities(e.g.diningout,goingtobars,cinema,etc.)48%Shoppedatdiscountstores48%Boughtcheapergroceries33%Cancelledholidays33%Activelysoughtoutdeals(coupons,discounteditems)Cutbackonenergycosts32%28%GaveuporputoffbiggerexpensesforlaterPurchaseditemsoncredit(e.g.onacreditcard,BNPL,lo