bp 世界能源展望2024（英文）

bp

bpEnergyOutlook

2024edition

→

Energy

Outlook2024

exploresthekeytrendsanduncertainties

surroundingtheenergytransition.

Thisyear’sEnergyOutlookisfocusedontwomainscenarios:CurrentTrajectoryandNetZero.Thesescenariosarenotpredictionsofwhatislikelytohappenorwhatbpwouldliketohappen.Rathertheyexplorethepossibleimplicationsofdifferentjudgementsandassumptions

concerningthenatureoftheenergytransition.Thescenariosarebasedonexistingtechnologiesanddonotconsiderthepossibleimpactofentirelyneworunknowntechnologies.

Themanyuncertaintiessurroundingthepossiblespeedandnature

oftheenergytransitionmeanstheprobabilityofanyoneofthese

scenariosmaterialisingexactlyasdescribedisnegligible.Moreover,

thetwoscenariosdonotprovideacomprehensivedescriptionof

allpossibleoutcomes.Theydo,however,spanawiderangeof

possibleoutcomesandsomighthelptoillustratethekeytrendsanduncertaintiessurroundingthepossibledevelopmentofenergymarketsoutto2050.

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition2

TheEnergyOutlookisproducedtoinformbp’sviewsoftherisksandopportunitiesposedbytheenergytransitionandispublishedasacontributiontothewiderdebateaboutthefactorsshapingthefuturepathoftheglobalenergysystem.ButtheOutlookisonlyonesourceamongmanywhenconsideringtheprospectsforglobalenergy

marketsandbpconsidersawiderangeofotherexternalscenarios,analysisandinformationwhenformingitslong-termstrategy.

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition3

Contents

Introduction

Powersector50

Electricitydemand52

Electricitygenerationbyfuel54

Windandsolar56

Increasingpowersector

resilience58

Lowcarbon

hydrogen60

Lowcarbonhydrogen62

Regionallowcarbon

hydrogendemand64

Energydemand24

Growthofprimaryenergy26

Primaryenergybyfuel28

Oildemand30

Roadtransport32

Aviationandmarine34

Productdemandandrefining36

Oilsupply38

Naturalgasdemand40

Importsofliquifiednaturalgas42

Naturalgasproduction44

Coaldemand46

Modernbioenergy48

Welcometo

EnergyOutlook20246

Recentdevelopmentsand

emergingtrends8

Keyinsights10

Overview12

Twoscenarios:Current

TrajectoryandNetZero14

ComparisonwithIPCC

pathways16

Fromenergyadditionto

energysubstitution18

Cumulativeemissions:

CurrentTrajectoryandNetZero20

Delayedanddisorderlyscenario22

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition4

Whatdoesittake

toacceleratethe

energytransition?76

Decompositionbysector78

Power80

Industry82

Transport84

Buildings86

Carbonmitigation

andremovals66

Carboncapture,use

andstorage68

Enablers70

Energyinvestment72

Demandforcriticalminerals74

Annex88

Datatables90

Comparingscenarioemissions

withIPCCcarbonbudgets92

FromCurrentTrajectory

toNetZero94

Modellingapproachforthe

DelayedNetZeroandfastest

IPCCdecarbonizationpathways96

Economicimpact

ofclimatechange98

Investmentmethodology100

Carbonemissions

definitionsandsources102

Otherdatadefinitions

andsources104

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition5

Introduction

IntroductiontoEnergyOutlook2024

Welcometothe2024editionofbp’sEnergyOutlook.

Globaldevelopmentsandeventsinrecentyearshavehighlightedtheconsiderablechallengesfacingtheglobalenergysystemandthoseofuswhoworkwithinit.

Despitemarkedincreasesin

governmentclimateambitions

andactions,andrapidgrowthin

investmentinlowcarbonenergy,carbonemissionscontinue

torise.Indeed,otherthanthe

Covid-inducedfallof2020,carbonemissionshaveriseneveryyear

sincetheParisclimategoalswereagreedin2015.Thecarbonbudgetisrunningout.

Theworldisinan‘energyaddition’phaseoftheenergytransitionin

whichitisconsumingincreasingamountsofbothlowcarbon

energyandfossilfuels.Thehistoryofenergyhasseenseveralpast

phasesof‘energyadditions’,forexampletherapidincreaseincoalastheworldshiftedfromtheuseofwoodasitsprimaryenergy

sourcetocoal,andlaterthesharpincreasesinoilasitdisplacedcoalasthedominantenergyform.Butineachofthesecases,theworldcontinuedtoconsumesimilarorgreateramountsofalltypesof

energy.

Thechallengeistomove–for

thefirsttimeinhistory–fromthecurrentenergyadditionphaseof

theenergytransitiontoan‘energysubstitution’phase,inwhich

lowcarbonenergyincreases

sufficientlyquicklytomorethan

matchtheincreaseinglobalenergydemand,allowingtheconsumptionoffossilfuels,andwiththatcarbonemissions,todecline.

Thelongerittakesfortheworldtomovetoarapidandsustainedenergytransition,thegreatertheriskofacostlyanddisorderly

adjustmentpathwayinthefuture.

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition6

ThechallengeposedbytheenergytransitionisfurthercomplicatedbytherepercussionsoftheenergydisruptionsandshortagescausedbythewarinUkraine.These

disruptions,andtheeconomicandsocialcoststheyentailed,servedasaremindertousallthatthe

transitionalsoneedstoconsiderthesecurityandaffordabilityofenergy.

Irealisethattheconceptofthe

energytrilemma–theimportanceofenergysystemsprovidingenergywhichissecureandaffordableaswellassustainable–hasbeen

discussedandusedformany

years.Butitsrelevancehasneverbeengreater:anysuccessful

andenduringtransitionneedstoaddressallthreeelementsofthetrilemma.

Thesechallenges,togetherwiththebroaderimplicationsoftheshiftsandtrendsunderwayintheglobalenergysystem,areexploredin

thisyear’sOutlookusingtwomainscenarios:CurrentTrajectoryandNetZero.Togetherthesescenariosspanawiderangeofthepossibleoutcomesfortheglobalenergy

systemoverthenext25years.It

ispossibletousethesescenariostoidentifyenergytrendsthatare

commonacrossbothscenarios

andthosethataremoredependentonthepaceofthetransition.Thiscanhelpinformjudgementsofhowtheenergysystemmayevolveovercomingdecades.

Thetwoscenarioscanalsobe

comparedtogiveaclearersenseofwhatneedstobedoneto

shifttheworldfromitscurrent

unsustainableemissionstrajectorytoapathwayconsistentwith

theParisclimategoals.Spoileralert:amongstotherthings,

thissuggestsaneedforgreater

electrificationfuelledbyeven

fastergrowthinwindandsolar

power,asignificantaccelerationinenergyefficiencyimprovements,togetherwithincreasinguseofawholerangeofotherlowcarbonenergysourcesandtechnologies,includingbiofuels,lowcarbon

hydrogen,andcarboncapture,useandstorage(CCUS).

Ihopethisyear’sEnergyOutlookisusefultoeveryonetryingtotacklethechallengesfacingtheglobal

energysystemandacceleratethetransitiontoglobalnetzero.

Asalways,anyfeedbackof

theOutlookandhowitcanbe

improvedwouldbemostwelcome.

CP

S::

SpencerDale

Chiefeconomist

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition7

Introduction

Recentdevelopmentsandemergingtrends

and2023.Thisgrowthhasbeendriveninparticularbysolar,

supportedbycontinuingfallsincost–thecostsofsolarmoduleshavefallenbyaround60%overthepastfouryears.

●Theenergyadditionsfromlow

carbonsourceshavenot,however,beensufficienttomeetthegrowthintotalglobalenergydemand,

meaningtheuseoffossilfuelshascontinuedtoincrease.Fossilfuelconsumptionreachedanewhighin2023,drivenprimarilybyrisingoilconsumption.

●Oilandgasupstreaminvestmenttotalled$550billionin2023.

Althoughupstreaminvestment

remainsbelowitspeakintheearly2010s,productionhascontinuedtogrowsteadily,supported

byimprovingproductivityofinvestment.

●Theincreasedfocusonenergysecuritycouldsupportgreateremphasisonimprovingenergyefficiencyandgrowingdomesticenergyproduction.Itmayalsopromptgreatergovernment

involvementinthedesignandoperationofenergymarkets,

asillustratedbythegrowing

roleofgreenindustrialpolicies,increasingattentiononthe

securityofenergysupplychainsand,whererelevant,onthe

utilizationoflocalfossilfuelresources.

●Globalenergydemandhas

continuedtogrow,averaging

around1%peryearbetween2019and2023,weakerthanitsaveragerateofalittlebelow2%overthe10yearsto2019,drivenbyincreasingprosperityandgrowthinemergingeconomies.

●Progressonimprovingenergy

efficiencyhasbeendisappointing.Theamountofenergyused

perunitofeconomicactivity

hasfallenbyalittleover1%peryearoverthepastfouryears

onaverage.Thatisslowerthantheprevious10yearsandmuchweakerthanthe4%annualratetargetedintheenergyefficiencypledgeatCOP28.

●Investmentinlowcarbonenergyisestimatedtohavegrownvery

rapidlyinrecentyears,uparound50%since2019atapproximately$1.9trillionin2023.This

investmentisheavilyconcentratedindevelopedeconomiesand

China,withfarlowerinvestmentlevelsinemergingeconomies

wherecostsofcapitalaretypicallyhigher.

●Muchofthisinvestmenthasbeendeployedinrenewablepower,withwindandsolarpowergenerationalmostdoublingbetween2019

TheEnergyOutlookscenariosareinformedbyrecenttrendsand

developmentsintheglobalenergysystem.

●Carbonemissionshavecontinuedtoincrease,growingatanaveragerateof0.8%peryearoverthe

pastfouryears(2019-23).IfCO2emissionsweremaintained

atclosetorecentlevels,the

carbonbudgetestimatedby

theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)tobe

consistentwithahighprobabilityoflimitingaverageglobal

temperatureincreasesto2°C

wouldbeexhaustedbytheearly2040s.

●ThewarinUkraineincreased

theattentiononensuringenergysecurityandaffordabilityaswellasachievingtheParisclimate

goals.Therecentdisruptionsin

theMiddleEasthavereinforcedtheimportanceofenergysecurity.

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition8

●Growthinoildemandsince2019–whichhasaveragedaround0.5Mb/dperyear–hasbeenlargelydrivenbyincreasingconsumptioninemergingeconomies

andincreaseddemandfor

petrochemicalfeedstocks.

Oilconsumptionindeveloped

economiescontinuedtofallovermuchofthepasttwodecades.In2022oildemandindevelopedeconomieswasaround2Mb/dlowerthanitwasbeforethe

Covid-19pandemic,and5.5Mb/d(around10%)belowitshistoric

peakin2005.

●Stronggrowthinnaturalgas

demandinemergingAsian

economies,combinedwith

disruptionstoRussianpipeline

exportstoEurope,hasincreasedtheimportanceofliquifiednaturalgas(LNG)withinglobalgas

markets.LNGdemandhasgrownaroundeighttimestherateof

overallnaturalgasconsumptionoverthepastfiveyears.

●Growthinelectricityhas

continuedtooutpacetotal

energydemandgrowthinrecentyearsastheenergysystemhasincreasinglyelectrified.This

hasbeendrivenbycontinued

rapidgrowthinelectricityuseinemergingeconomies,spurred

byimprovedaccessibilityand

affordability.Nascentbutgrowingdemandfromdatacentresto

supporttheincreasingadoptionofgenerativeAIapplicationslookssettoincreaseelectricitydemandmateriallyinsomemarketsinthecomingyears.

●Therapidgrowthinlowcarbon

generationisputtingincreased

pressureontheinfrastructureandgovernanceprocesssupporting

powermarkets,includingplanningandpermittingandgrids.For

example,intheUStheaveragetimebetweenarequestforgridconnectionandcommercial

operationincreasedfromless

thantwoyearsforprojectsbuiltin2000-07tonearlyfiveyearsforprojectsbuiltin2023.

●Thenumberofelectricvehicleshasrisenrapidly,withsales

increasingfromtwomillion

vehiclesin2019toaround14

millionin2023.Thisgrowthhasbeenunderpinnedbyvehicle

emissionsregulations,especiallyinChina,theEUandtheUS.

●Salesofheatpumpsalsogrew

steadily,particularlyintheEU

andNorthAmerica.Annualsalesincreasedbyaround75%intheEUbetween2019and2023toreach2.6millionunitsperyear.

●Growthinlessmature,highercost,lowcarbonenergyvectorsandtechnologies–including

lowcarbonhydrogen,syntheticbiofuels,andcarboncapture

andstorage–remainsataveryearlystage.Asanexample,atthebeginningof2024lessthan

5Mtpalowcarbonhydrogen

projectswereoperationalorunderconstruction–asmallfractionoftheexistinguseofunabatedfossil-fuel-basedhydrogen.

●Investmentincriticalminerals

miningandexplorationhas

increasedinrecentyearsin

responsetoprospectiveincreasesindemandastheenergysystemtransitions,butwouldneedto

acceleratefurthertomeetthe

needsofarapidenergytransition.

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition9

Introduction

Keyinsights

Thescenariosinthisyear’sEnergyOutlookcanbeusedtohelpinformsomekeyinsightsabouthow

theenergysystemmayevolve

overthenext25years.Someoftheseinsightsstemfromfactorsaffectingtheglobalenvironmentandenergymarketsthatare

commonacrossbothscenariosandsomaysuggestanincreasedlikelihoodthattheymayalso

beapparentinpathwayslying

‘between’thesescenarios.Otherinsightsaremoredependentonthepaceoftransition.

Globalenvironment

●Thecarbonbudgetisrunning

out.Thelongerthedelayin

takingdecisiveactiontoreduceemissionsonarapidand

sustainedbasis,thegreatertheriskofacostlyanddisruptive

adjustmentpathwaylater.

Governmentambitionsand

provisionsinsupportofthe

energytransitionhavegrowninrecentyears,butfurtherglobal

policyactionisneededtoachieveaParis-consistentpathway.

●ThedisruptionstoglobalenergysuppliesassociatedwiththewarinUkrainehaveincreasedthe

importanceattachedtoensuringsecureandaffordableenergy

whilealsoachievingtheParis

climategoals.Thisgreaterfocusonsafeguardingenergysecurityincludesmanycountriesplacingmoreweightonensuringthe

securityoftheirkeylowcarbonenergyvaluechains.

Trendscommonacrossbothscenarios

●Energydemandgrowsmore

stronglyinemergingeconomies,drivenbyrisingprosperity

andlivingstandards.Butthe

magnitudeandpersistenceofthegrowthinenergyconsumption

dependscriticallyonactionstakengloballytoaccelerateimprovementsinenergy

efficiency.

●Thestructureofenergydemandchanges,withtheimportanceoffossilfuelsdeclining,replacedbyagrowingshareoflowcarbon

energy,ledbywindandsolar

power.Theworldmovesfrom

the‘energyaddition’phaseofthetransition,inwhichmoreofbothlowcarbonenergyandfossil

fuelsareconsumed,toan‘energysubstitution’phase,withdecliningconsumptionoffossilfuels.

●Windandsolargrowrapidly,

supportedbyfallingcostsandasteadilyincreasingelectrificationoftheenergysystem.Therisingshareofvariablerenewable

energyinpowergeneration

requiresglobalpowersystemstobolstertheirresilienceto

fluctuationsingeneration,byupgradinggrids,andincreasingsystemflexibility,storage,andreliablespare(dispatchable)

capacity.

●Oildemanddeclinesoverthe

outlookbutcontinuestoplay

asignificantroleintheglobal

energysystemforthenext10-15years.Thisrequirescontinuing

investmentinupstreamoil(andnaturalgas).

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition10

●Thedeclineinoildemand

stemsatfirstlargelyfromthe

improvingefficiencyofthe

internalcombustionengine

(ICE)vehiclefleet,butthen

overtimeincreasinglyfromtheelectrificationofroadtransport.Thenumberofelectricvehiclesgrowsrapidly,underpinned

byregulatorystandardsand

increasingcostcompetitiveness.

Transition-dependenttrends

●Whetherthedemandfornaturalgasincreasesorfallsoverthenext25yearsdependsonthespeedoftheenergytransition.Naturalgasconsumptionrisesinemerging

economiesastheygrowand

industrialize.Butinacceleratedtransitionpathwaysthisisoffsetbyshiftsawayfromnaturalgastolowercarbonenergy.

●Theuseofbiofuelsand

biomethanegrowsoverthenext25years.Butthepaceofthat

expansioninkeysectorssuchasaviationishighlydependentontheextentofgovernmentpoliciesandmandatessupportingtheiruse.

●Lowcarbonhydrogenhelpsto

decarbonizetheenergysystemthroughitsuseinindustryand

transportforactivitiesthatare

hardtoelectrify,and,toalesserextent,inprovidingresiliencein

powersystems.Thehighcost

oflowcarbonhydrogenrelativetoincumbentunabatedfossil

fuels,however,meansthatits

significancedependsonthescaleofpolicysupport.Eveninafastertransitionpathway,muchofthegrowthoflowcarbonhydrogenoccursafter2035.

●CCUSplaysacriticalrolein

enablingthetransitiontoalow

carbonenergysystem,butit

requiresgovernmentsupport

andincentivestocompensate

fortheadditionalcostsitsuse

involves.ThedeploymentofCCUScomplementsatransitionaway

fromfossilfuels–itdoesnotactasanalternative.

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition11

Overview

Twoscenariostoexplorethespeedand

shapeoftheenergytransitionoutto2050

NetZeroisinlinewith‘Parisconsistent’IPCCscenarios,whileCurrentTrajectorysuggestsasignificanttemperature

overshoot

Progressingtheenergytransition:fromenergyadditiontoenergysubstitution

Thepathwayalongwhichtheglobalenergysystemiscurrentlytravelling,ifcontinued,isnotconsistentwitha2°Ccarbonbudget

Delayingtheenergytransitioncouldlead

toacostlyanddisorderlyadjustment

pathway

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition12

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition13

Overview

Twoscenariostoexplorethespeedandshapeoftheenergytransitionoutto2050

Carbonemissions

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

GtofCO2e

oCurrentTrajectory

oNetZero

200020102020203020402050

CarbonemissionsincludeCO2emissionsfromenergyuse,industrialprocesses,naturalgasflaringandmethaneemissionsfromenergyproduction.

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition14

Keypoints

bp’sEnergyOutlook2024usestwoscenarios–CurrentTrajectoryandNetZero–toexplorearangeof

possibleoutcomesfortheglobalenergysystemoutto2050.

●Thewiderangeoffactorsthatarelikelytoshapethetransitionoftheglobalenergysystem

overthenext25years–for

example,policy,technology,

societalpressures,financingandgeopolitics–meanitisnotpossibletomakemeaningfulpredictionsofhowtheenergysystemwillevolve.

●Instead,theEnergyOutlookusesscenariosthatspanawiderangeofpossibleoutcomesoutto

2050.Indoingso,thescenariosinformanunderstandingofwhichtrendsintheenergysystemaremorelikelytooccuracrossmostplausibleoutcomesandwhich

onesaremoredependentonthespeedandshapeoftheenergy

transition.Thatunderstanding

canhelpshapestrategicchoicesthataremoreresilienttothemanyuncertaintiessurroundingthe

futureoftheenergysystem.

●Thescenariosconsidercarbon

emissionsfromenergyproductionanduse,mostnon-energy

relatedindustrialprocesses,andnaturalgasflaringandmethaneemissionsfromtheproduction,transportation,anddistributionoffossilfuelsandtheincompletecombustionoftraditional

bioenergy(seepages102-103oftheAnnexformoredetails).Thescenariosusedatafrom2022asthebaseyear.Theconsiderableinertiaintheenergysystem

meansthatitsevolutionoverthenextfewyearsisunlikelytovarysignificantlyacrossscenarios.

●CurrentTrajectoryisdesigned

tocapturethebroadpathway

alongwhichtheglobalenergy

systemiscurrentlytravelling.

Itplacesweightonclimate

policiesalreadyinforceand

onglobalaimsandpledgesfor

futuredecarbonization.Atthe

sametime,italsorecognizesthemyriadchallengesassociated

withmeetingtheseaims.CO2

equivalent(CO2e)emissionsin

CurrentTrajectorypeakinthemid-2020sandby2050arearound

25%below2022levels.

●NetZeroexploreshowdifferentelementsoftheenergysystemmightchangetoachievea

substantialreductionincarbonemissions.Inthatsense,Net

Zerocanbeviewedasa‘whatif’scenario:whatelementsoftheenergysystemmightchange,

andhow,iftheworldcollectivelyactsforCO2eemissionstofallbyaround95%by2050.

●NetZeroassumesthatthere

isasignificanttighteningin

climatepolicies.Italsoembodiesshiftsinsocietalbehaviourand

preferenceswhichfurthersupportgainsinenergyefficiencyandtheadoptionoflowcarbonenergy.

●ThecarbonemissionsremaininginNetZeroin2050couldbe

eliminatedbyeitheradditional

changestotheenergysystem

(includingCCUS-enabled

carbondioxideremovals(CDR)

(seepages68-69)orbythe

deploymentofnaturalclimate

solutions(NCS).TheuseofNCStooffsetemissionsfromthe

energysystemwoulddependonarangeoffactorsincludingthe

costsofbothNCSandtherelativecostsofabatinggreenhousegasemissionsinsideandoutsideoftheenergysystem.ThesecostsarenotexplicitlyconsideredintheOutlook.

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition15

Overview

NetZeroisinlinewith‘Parisconsistent’IPCCscenarios,whileCurrentTrajectorysuggestsasignificant

temperatureovershoot

CumulativecarbonemissionsinIPCCscenariosin2015-2050

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

GtofCO2e

400

C1C2C3NetZeroC5CurrentTrajectory

C1-C5representthecategoriesofIPCCscenariosusingthe10%-90%percentilerangeforvarioustemperatureoutcomesasdescribedinthissection.SeetheAnnexforanadditionalexplanationonhowcumulativeemissionsarecalculated.

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition16

Keypoints

Thepaceandextentof

decarbonizationinNetZerois

broadlyalignedwitharangeofIPCCscenariosconsistentwithmeetingtheParisclimategoals.Incontrast,theemissionsprofileofCurrent

Trajectorysuggestsamuchgreaterlikelihoodofasignificantovershootrelativetothoseclimategoals.

●TheEnergyOutlookscenarios

extendonlyto2050anddonotmodelallformsofgreenhousegasesorallsectorsofthe

economy.Assuch,itisnot

possibletodirectlyinferthe

increaseinglobalaverage

temperaturesin2100impliedbyCurrentTrajectoryandNetZero.

●However,itispossibletomakeanindirectinferencebycomparingthecumulativecarbonemissionsinthetwoscenariosforthe

period2015-50withtherangesofcorrespondingcarbontrajectoriestakenfromthescenariosincludedintheIPCCSixthAssessment

Report(ClimateChange2022:

Impacts,Adaptationand

Vulnerability).Seepages92-93intheAnnexformoredetails.

●Itisnotstraightforwardto

compareNetZerowiththeParisclimategoals.CumulativeCO2e

emissionsinNetZeroarebroadlyinthemiddleoftherangesoftwocategoriesofIPCCscenarios–C2andC3.IPCCC2scenariosare

consistentwithagreaterthan

50%probabilityofreturningglobalwarmingto1.5°Cafterahigh

overshoot,andIPCCC3scenariosareconsistentwithagreater

than67%probabilityoflimiting

averageglobaltemperaturerisesto2°C.Onthatbasis,NetZero

mightbeconsideredtobebroadlyconsistentwiththeParisclimategoals.

●Incontrast,cumulativecarbon

emissionsinCurrentTrajectory

areabovethemid-pointofthe

rangeofemissionsfromIPCCC5scenarios,whichareconsistent

withagreaterthan50%probabilityoflimitingaverageglobal

temperaturerisesto2.5°C.ThissuggestsCurrentTrajectoryisnotconsistentwithmeetingtheParisclimategoals.

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition17

Overview

Progressingtheenergytransition:

fromenergyadditiontoenergysubstitution

AverageannualchangeinprimaryenergyinCurrentTrajectory

EJ

Energyaddition

Energysubstitution

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-15

-20

-15

-20

-25

-25

2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s

AverageannualchangeinprimaryenergyinNetZero

15

10

5

0

EJ

Energyaddition

Energysubstitution

2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s

Lowcarbonfuels

UnabatedfossilfuelsoPrimaryenergy

Calculationdoesnotinclude2020duetoimpactofCovid-19.

bpEnergyOutlook:2024edition18

Keypoints

Theglobalenergysystemfacesthechallengeofmovingfromthecurrentphaseoftheenergytransition,

inwhichlowcarbonenergyis

accelerating,toasecondphase

inwhichitisgrowingsufficiently

quicklytoreducetheneedforfossilfuels.

●Lowcarbonenergyhasincreasedsign