全球移动通信行业市场前景及投资研究报告-培训课件外文版2024.6联通电信

DIGITAL

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TRENDSMobilecommunicationsCHAPTER

01OverviewMarketshareofmobiletelecommunicationtechnologiesworldwidefrom2016to2030,bygenerationGlobalmarketshareofmobiletelecomtechnology2016-2030,bygeneration2G3G4G5G100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%23%32%29%31%43%28%52%54%12%8%25%60%58%36%8%45%40%29%23%1%20162017201820192021*2022*2030**3Description:4Gtechnologyaccountedfor60percentofallmobileconnectionsin2022,upfrom58percentthepreviousyear,while5Gtechnologyaccountedfora12percentshare.By2030,continued5Gadoptionisexpectedtoseethenextgenerationtechnologymakeupoverhalfofconnectionsworldwide.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2016to2022;*Figuresfor2Gand3Gsharein2021and2022werenotprovidedbythesource.**Forecast.

ReadmoreSource(s):GSMA;GSMAIntelligenceSmartphoneunitshipmentsworldwidefrom2011to2023(inmillions)Smartphoneshipmentsworldwide2011-20231,8001,566.51,6001,4001,2001,0008001,518.61,505.21,479.11,462.41,391.51,331.21,317.81,225.41,171.21,048.9741.1600520.9201140020002012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220234Description:Thesmartphoneunitshipmentsworldwideclosetotripledbetween2011and2017whenitpeakedat1.56billionunits.Sincethen,however,theglobalsmartphoneshipmentsdecreasedyear-on-yearandreached1.3billionsmartphoneunitshipmentsuntil2020.If2021markedthefirstyeartoexperienceagrowthinglobalsmartphoneunitshipmentssince2017,globalshipmentsdecreasedagain,droppingto1.17millionunitsin2023.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2011to2023Source(s):CounterpointResearchInformationtechnology(IT)spendingontelecommunicationsservicesworldwidefrom2008to2024(inbillionU.S.dollars)Telecomservices:globalspendingforecast2008-20241,8001,656.71,6411,6241,596.51,578.41,531.71,5411,5361,6001,4001,2001,0008001,4801,4581,4251,3921,3921,3961,3741,3801,37360040020002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023*

2024*5Description:In2023,telecommunicationservicesspendingisexpectedtoamountto1.48trillionU.S.dollars,anincreaseofaround3.9percentonthepreviousyear.Thisrepresentsareturntogrowthafterdecreasedspendingin2022.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2008to2023;*Forecast

ValueshavebeenroundedReadmoreSource(s):GartnerCommunicationservicesrevenueworldwidefrom2018to2028,bysegment(intrillionU.S.dollars)Globalcommunicationservicesrevenue2018-2028,bysegmentMobileDataFixedDataMobileVoiceFixedVoice1.81.60.120.220.130.230.130.240.130.241.40.140.140.260.150.260.150.150.280.160.30.170.321.21.00.80.60.40.20.00.250.270.470.460.450.440.430.420.410.390.370.350.330.760.730.70.670.640.610.560.580.530.490.51201820192020202120222023202420252026202720286Description:Significantfluctuationsareestimatedforallsegmentsovertheforecastperiodfortherevenue.Concerningthefourselectedsegments,thesegmentMobileDatahasthelargestrevenuewith0.76trillionU.S.dollars.Contrastingly,FixedVoiceisrankedlast,with0.12trillionU.S.dollars.Theirdifference,comparedtoMobileData,liesat0.64trillionU.S.dollars.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2018to2028Source(s):TechnologyMarketInsightsCommunicationservicesaveragespendpercapitaworldwidefrom2019to2028,bysegment(inU.S.dollars)Globalcommunicationservicesrevenuepercapita2019-2028,bysegmentMobileDataFixedDataMobileVoice82.75FixedVoice85.89105958575655545352515594.7959.1891.9158.3288.9557.4179.5554.4676.4173.7670.1368.0956.4655.4853.4152.0735.9319.6349.8837.5147.3240.4734.6819.0733.5518.3432.3917.6431.2716.9930.1716.429.1115.8428.0715.3321.69201920.422020202120222023202420252026202720287Description:Significantfluctuationsareestimatedforallsegmentsovertheforecastperiodfortheaveragespendpercapita.Comparingthefourdifferentsegmentsfortheyear2028,thesegment'MobileData'leadstherankingwith94.79U.S.dollars.Contrastingly,'FixedVoice'isrankedlast,with15.33U.S.dollars.Theirdifference,comparedtoMobileData,liesat79.46U.S.dollars.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2019to2028Source(s):TechnologyMarketInsightsMobileARPUperSIMcardinselectedcountriesfrom2015to2022(inU.S.dollars)Averagerevenuepermobileuser(ARPU)persimcard2015-2022,byselectedcountryARPUinU.S.dollarsQ3'19

Q3'18

Q3'1715Q4'2210Q3'20Q4'1625Q4'150520303540ArgentinaAustraliaBangladeshBrazilBurkinaFasoCanada8Description:Canadianwirelesstelecommunicationscompaniesgeneratedanaveragerevenueperuser(ARPU)of38U.S.dollarsasofthefinalquarterof2022,morethananyothersurveyedcountry.AustralianprovidersachievedanARPUof24U.S.dollars,whilethoseinNewZealandgeneratedanARPUof20U.S.dollars.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2015to2022Source(s):AmericanTowerSmartphonerevenuesworldwidefrom2011to2023(inbillionU.S.dollars)Smartphonerevenuesworldwide2011-2023500448.0845040035030025020015010050418.88410.09411.89404.6391.84381.72367.18359.37325.53284.51232.01161.06201102012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220239/statistics/687476/global-smartphone-revenuesBetween2011and2023,theglobalsmartphonemarketrevenuegenerallyincreased.In2022and2023,thesmartphonemarketworldwideexperiencedadecrease,withitssizegoingfromover448billionU.S.dollarstoaround412billionU.S.dollars.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2011to2023Source(s):CounterpointResearchCHAPTER

02SubscriptionsNumberofmobile(cellular)subscriptionsworldwidefrom1993to2023(inmillions)Numberofglobalmobilesubscriptions1993-202310,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202311Description:Asof2023,therewerealmost8.9billionmobilephonesubscriptionsworldwide,upfromaround8.6billionthepreviousyear.Thenumberofsubscriptionsexceededeightbillionforthefirsttimein2019.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1993to2023Source(s):ITUNumberofmobile(cellular)subscriptionsworldwidefrom2005to2023,byregion(inmillions)Numberofmobilesubscriptionsworldwide2005-2023,byregionAfricaAmericasArabStatesAsia-PacificCISEurope4,4976,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00004,9394,774

4,7884,705

4,7034,3354,0943,7783,6813,4633,2343,0299522,6258812,1641,7731,3987351,098

1,114

1,0801,1401,0741,0438145814081,0938091,052

1,056

1,044

1,049

1,048

1,0459951,021944895833581809771800510809808812809831544288114338274548344728434887471761366318278344171471472541766164964455317745913538241541941735135735336435230031932332532933132934729972643062

451

64320917412958742005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

202312Description:In2023,thenumberofmobilesubscriptionsintheAsia-Pacificregiontotalledover4.9billion,thehighestofanyregionworldwideandanincreaseofaround3.2percentonthepreviousyear.Meanwhile,Africahasseenparticularlystronggrowthinsubscriptions,havingsurpassedthe1billionmarkin2022.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2005to2023;*CIS=CommonwealthofIndependentStatesReadmoreSource(s):ITUNumberofmobile(cellular)subscriptionsper100inhabitantsworldwidefrom2005to2023,byregionMobilesubscriptionsper100inhabitants2005-2023,byregionAfricaAmericasArabStatesAsiaPacificCIS*Europe160140120100806040200200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202313Description:Therewerearound149mobilesubscriptionsper100inhabitantsintheCommonwealthofIndependentStates(CIS)regionin2023,thehighestfigureamongglobalregions.Africawastheonlyregionwithfewerthan100subscriptionsper100inhabitants,withtheAsia-Pacificregionhavingsurpassedthispointin2017.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2005to2023;*CIS=CommonwealthofIndependentStatesReadmoreSource(s):ITUUniquemobilesubscriberspenetrationrateasshareofpopulationworldwidein2022and2030,byregionGlobaluniquemobilesubscriberspenetration2022-2030,byregionEuropeCISNorthAmericaLatinAmericaAsiaPacificMENASub-SaharanAfricaGreaterChina**Global95%85%75%65%55%45%35%20222030*14Description:In2022,68percentoftheglobalpopulationwerereportedtohavehadamobilesubscription.Thisfigureisreportedtoreach73percentbytheendofthedecade,withparticularlystronggrowthforecastinLatinAmericaandSub-SaharanAfrica.Europehadthehighestmobilesubscriptionpenetrationrateofanyregionin2022at90percent.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;*Forecast**ThesourcegroupsChina,HongKong,MacaoandTaiwanasGreaterChina.ReadmoreSource(s):GSMANumberofmobilebroadbandsubscriptionsworldwidefrom2010to2023,byregion(inmillions)Numberofmobilebroadbandsubscriptionsworldwide2010-2023,byregionAfricaTheAmericasArabStatesAsia&PacificCISEurope4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005003,853.43,798.33,647.13,4273,225.72,962.92,5881,931.91,5541,192.21,207.47571,150.11,110.71,032.8990.4670.3923.8629894.3587.2842.3538.7752.4535.5355.5770.7470.111648820.

17731.3511.6723.6441.4697.3416.5661.2427.61123174.

15583.3440.7562.1431.1341.74923357.4331.8357.1286.11248.

3308289268.7287.9309.2237.7251.5212.8115844.

8252.1248.5214.3226.6244.1252.8259.8190.3174.1186.7114.6948.1959.684.697.35613.

4702010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202315Description:Thenumberofmobilebroadbandsubscriptionsworldwidesawrapidgrowththroughthe2010sandintothepresentdecade.In2023,theestimatednumberofmobilebroadbandsubscriptionsintheAmericastotaledover1.2billion,upfrom238millionin2010,whileover3.8billionwerereportedintheAsia-Pacificregioninthemostrecentyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2010to2023Source(s):ITUNumberofactivemobilebroadbandsubscriptionsworldwidefrom2007to2023(inmillions)Numberofmobilebroadbandsubscriptionsworldwide2007-20238,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0007,029.86,808.16,507.46,119.15,757.35,2694,744.93,888.33,306.32,660.41,959.420131,549.620121,183.52011806.920101,0000615422268200720082009201420152016201720182019202020212022202316Description:In2023,therewerejustoversevenbillionactivemobilebroadbandsubscriptionsworldwide.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2007to2023Source(s):ITUCHAPTER

03ConsumptionAnnualmobiledatatrafficworldwidefrom2012to2029(inexabytespermonth)Annualmobilemonthlydatausageworldwide2012-202945040035030025020015010050403.4353.7305.23255.74209.2167.04129.9296.7569.04202148.44202033.42201922.59201811.0920177.212.534.370.61.430201220132014201520162022

2023*

2024*

2025*

2026*

2027*

2028*

2029*18Description:Mobiledatausageissettoexplodeacrosstheglobe,withforecastsexpectingmonthlydatatraffictotriplebetween2023and2029.Thisexplosionindatausewillbedrivenbyarangeofshiftingconsumptionhabits,includingariseinvideostreamingandtheadoptionofIoT(internetofthings)devices.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2012to2023;*Forecast.ReadmoreSource(s):EricssonAveragemonthlysmartphonetrafficworldwidefrom2012to2028(inexabytes)Smartphonetrafficworldwidepermonth2012-202835030025020015010050320.21277.55233.26190.66152.08118.5789.86202265.87202145.77202031.26201920.8220189.736.1720162.093.730.511.20201220132014201520172023*

2024*

2025*

2026*

2027*

2028*19Description:In2022,smartphonesworldwideused89.86exabytesofmobiledatapermonth,upfrom65exabytesthepreviousyear.Thisfigureisexpectedtoincreaserapidlyinthecomingyears,withforecastsexpectingmonthlymobiledatatrafficof320exabytesby2028.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2012to2022;*Forecast.ReadmoreSource(s):EricssonMonthlytabletdatatrafficworldwidefrom2020to2028(inexabytespermonth)Monthlytabletdatatrafficworldwide2020-20281099.197.81876.4865.5554.623.8943.312.7632102.312020202120222023*2024*2025*2026*2027*2028*20Description:OveralldatatrafficassociatedwithmobilePCs,tablets,androuterswasreportedat3.31exabytespermonthin2022.By2028,itisexpectedthattrafficassociatedwiththesedeviceswillreachalmost9exabytespermonth.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020to2022;InlcudesmobilePCs,tablets,androuters;*ForecastReadmoreSource(s):EricssonAveragemonthlyusageofmobiledatapersmartphonein2022and2028*,byregion(ingigabytes)Globalmonthlymobiledatausagepersmartphone2022and2028*,byregion20222028*4660555554545352504030201004138352525191817.4171512.5111110.54.6India,Nepal,

GCCStatesBhutanWesternEuropeNorthAmericaNortheastAsiaWorldSoutheastAsiaandOceaniaMENACentraland

LatinAmerica

Sub-SaharanEasternEuropeAfrica21Description:In2022,theaveragedatausedpersmartphonepermonthworldwideamountedto15gigabytes(GB).Thesourceforecaststhatthiswillincreasealmostfourtimesreaching46GBpersmartphonepermonthgloballyin2028.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;*2028dataisaGSMAforecast

**excludingcellularIoTReadmoreSource(s):GSMA;GSMAIntelligenceMobiledatatrafficpersmartphoneworldwidefrom2016to2028(inGB/month)Monthlydatatrafficpersmartphoneworldwide2016-202850454035302520151047.2741.9836.1630.5825.1720.3715.93202212.1820219.056.544.82502.581.97201620172018201920202023*2024*2025*2026*2027*2028*22Description:In2022,smartphonesacrosstheglobeusedanaverageof15.93gigabytesofmobiledatapermonth,upfrom12.18gigabytesthepreviousyear.Thisfigureisexpectedtoreach20gigabytesin2023,and47gigabytesby2028.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2016to2022;*ForecastReadmoreSource(s):EricssonAveragemobiledatatrafficpertabletworldwidefrom2016to2028(inGB/month)Monthlydatatrafficpertabletworldwide2016-2028302520151027.2323.6720.317.7315.3913.1911.1920229.518.2575.744.53503.512016201720182019202020212023*2024*2025*2026*2027*2028*23Description:In2022,tabletdevicesconsumedanaverageof11.19gigabytesofmobiledataeachpermonth.Thisfigureissettoclimbinthecomingyears,withtabletdevicesforecasttoconsumeanaverageof27.23gigabytesofmobiledataby2028.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2016to2022;*Forecast.ReadmoreSource(s):EricssonCHAPTER

04CompaniesLeadingtelecommunicationscompaniesworldwide2024,bymarketcapitalization(inbillionU.S.dollars)Leadingtelecommunicationscompaniesworldwide2024,bymarketcapMarketcapitalizationinbillionU.S.dollars020406080100120140160180200220T-MobileUSChinaMobile190.69182.58Comcast171.22VerizonDeutscheTelekomAT&T163.7124.81117.26NTT(NipponTelegraph&Telephone)AmericanTowerBhartiAirtel106.9595.0579.56KDDISoftBankChinaTelecom70.4865.0164.41AmericaMovil56.2325Description:In2024,T-MobileUSwastheworld'slargesttelecommunicationscompany,withamarketcapitalizationofover190billionU.S.dollars.Meanwhile,theBeijing-basedfirmChinaMobilefollowedinsecondplacewithamarketcapof182.6billionU.S.dollars.Comcast,Verizon,andDeutscheTelekomroundedupthetopfivelargesttelecommunicationscompaniesworldwide.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2024Source(s):CompaniesMarketCRankingoftelecomoperatorsbybrandvaluein2024(inbillionU.S.dollars)Telecomoperatorsbybrandvalue2024BrandvalueinbillionU.S.dollars30

400102050607080DeutscheTelekomVerizon73.3271.75AT&T49.25ChinaMobileNTTGroupXfinity44.2431.0630.0527.48SpectrumOrange20.28VodafoneChinaTelecom14.614.2126Description:TheGermantelecommunicationsgiantDeutscheTelekomwasrankedasthemostvaluabletelecombrandworldwidein2023.TheBonn-basedoperatorhadabrandvalueof73.32billionU.S.dollars,aheadofU.S.rivalsVerizonandAT&T.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2024Source(s):BrandFinanceRankingoftelecominfrastructurecompaniesbybrandvaluein2024(inbillionU.S.dollars)Leadingtelecominfrastructurecompaniesbybrandvalue2024BrandvalueinbillionU.S.dollars15051020253035HuaweiCisco31.122.79Nokia8.037.13QualcommEricssonZTE3.382.522.161.351.210.8CorningJuniperNetworksHengtongZTT27Description:In2024,theChinesecompanyHuaweiwasrankedastheworld'smostvaluabletelecommunicationsinfrastructurebrand,withavaluationofover31billionU.S.dollars.TheShenzhen-basedfirmmaintainedthetopspotdespitesanctionsfromtheUnitedStatesandotherforeigngovernments.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2024Source(s):BrandFinanceGlobalsmartphoneshipmentsfrom2007to2023,byvendor(inmillionunits)Smartphoneunitshipmentsworldwide2007-2023,byvendorSamsungAppleHuaweiOPPOXiaomiNokiaHTCRIMLGLenovovivoTranssionOthers1,6001,4001,2001,00080060040020002007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202328Description:Overall,smartphonemanufacturersshipped1.17billionsmartphonesaroundtheworldin2023.Appleledallsmartphonemanufacturerswith234.6millionunitsshippedworldwide,followedbySamsungwith226.6millionunits.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2007to2023Source(s):Gartner;IDCCHAPTER

05Specialfocus:5G5Gpopulationcoverageworldwidefrom2020to2022,byregionGlobal5Gpopulationcoveragebyregion2020-2022202020212022120%100%80%60%40%20%0%96.5%91.5%75.5%63.8%49.4%50.2%42.3%32.5%25.3%29.4%22%15.5%12.4%11.2%8.7%7.4%5.5%4.5%2.7%1.3%0.8%0%

0%SouthAsia0.4%NorthAmericaEastAsiaand

EuropeandCentral

LatinAmericaand

MiddleEastandPacific

Asia

theCaribbean

NorthAfricaSub-SaharanAfricaGlobal30Description:In2022,96.5percentofthepopulationofNorthAmericawerecoveredbya5Gnetwork,thelargestshareofanyglobalregion.TheEastAsiaandPacificregionhadthesecondhighestcoverageat63.8percentofthepopulation.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2020to2022Source(s):GSMA;GSMAIntelligence5Gshareoftotalmobileconnectionsin2022and2030,byregionAdoptionof5Gmobileconnections2022-2030byregionShareof5Gconnections2030*40%202250%0%10%20%30%60%70%80%90%88%100%91%NorthAmericaGreaterChinaEurope39%36%87%11%57%LatinAmericaMENA1%3%4%47%41%41%AsiaPacificCIS**1%1%16%Sub-SaharanAfrica**31Description:NorthAmericaisforecasttohavethehighest5Gadoptionrateofanyregionworldwidein2030,at91percent,followedbyGreaterChinaat88percent.Thefifthgenerationofmobiletechnology,knownas5G,offersarangeofbenefitsoverpreviousiterations,includingincreasedbandwidthandreducedlatency.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2022;Shareoftotalmobileconnections;*Forecast.

**2022valuesforCISandSub-SaharanAfricaarelistedbythesourceas"<1%".ReadmoreSource(s):GSMA;GSMAIntelligenceLeadingcountriesfor5Gavailabilityin2023Availabilityof5Ginleadingcountries2023Availability(percentageoftimeconnected)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%PuertoRicoSouthKoreaKuwait48.4%42.9%39.4%UnitedStatesSingaporeTaiwan31.1%30%30%India29.9%Bahrain26.8%26.4%HongKongThailandBulgariaFinlandSaudiArabiaFrance25.7%24.7%24.2%23.5%20.6%20.5%Australia32Description:PuertoRicoleda2023rankin