美国能源价格分析报告-培训课件外文版2024.4

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TRENDSEnergypricesintheU.S.CHAPTER

01OverviewEnergycommoditypriceindexworldwidefrom2013to2022,withaforecastuntil2024Globalenergycommoditypriceindex2013-2024160140152.6120.1120113.2113.3111.795.410080877668.16555.16052.74020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023*2024*3Description:Theglobalenergypriceindexstoodataround152.6in2022.Thiswasanincreasecomparedtothepreviousyearandaresultofgreaterfuelandpowerdemandaseconomiesrecoveredfromthecoronaviruspandemic.For2023,forecastssuggestthepriceindexwoulddecreaseto113.Priceindicesshowthedevelopmentofpricesforgoodsorservicesovertimerelativetoabaseyear.Commoditypricesmaybedependentonavarietyoffactorsfromsupplyanddemandtooveralleconomic[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2013to2022;priceindexesinnominalU.S.dollars;*Forecast.Figureswerecompiledfromseveraleditionsofthereport.

ReadmoreSource(s):WorldBankHouseholdelectricitypricesworldwideinJune2023,byselectcountry(inU.S.dollarsperkilowatt-hour)Globalhouseholdelectricityprices2023,byselectcountryElectricitypricesinU.S.dollarsperkilowatt-hour0.2

0.30.00.10.40.50.6IrelandUnitedKingdomItaly0.520.440.430.42BelgiumGermanyNetherlandsFrance0.40.340.26DenmarkAustraliaSpain0.240.240.23JapanRwanda0.230.23Finland0.24Description:Ireland,theUnitedKingdom,andItalyhadsomeofthehighesthouseholdelectricitypricesworldwide,asofJune2023.Atthetime,Irishhouseholdswerechargedaround0.52U.S.dollarsperkilowatt-hour,whileintheUKthepricestoodat0.44U.S.dollarsperkilowatt-hour.Bycomparison,intheUnitedStates,residentspaidalmostthreetimesless.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;June2023;*TheelectricitypriceinIranstoodat0.003U.S.dollarsperkilowatt-hour.Source(s):GPPConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)forenergyintheUnitedStatesfrom2008to2023EnergyconsumerpriceindexintheU.S.2008-2023155145135125147139.6121.3120.2120.5120.1117.5116.611510595108.42018106.12019104.22010100.8201710097.195.293.4852008200920112012201320142015201620202021202220235Description:TheU.S.CPIforenergyincreasedto139.6indexpointsin2023.Post2021,theconsumerpriceindicesincreasedinmanycountriesaseconomiesrecoveredfromthecoronaviruspandemic,whichledtoanenergysupplyshortageinthelatterhalfoftheyear.Assuch,the2022indexincreasedtolevelsnotseensince2008.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2008to2023Source(s):BureauofLaborStatistics;OECDCHAPTER

02FueltypesAverageannualWestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilpricefrom1976to2024(inU.S.dollarsperbarrel)WestTexasIntermediateannualaverageoilprice1976-20241201008060402007Description:AsofFebruary2024,theaverageannualpriceofWestTexasIntermediatecrudeoilreached74.15U.S.dollarsperbarrel.Thiswasanotabledecreasecomparedtothe2022average,whichstoodat94.9U.Sdollarswhenoilpricesrosefollowinganenergysupplyshortageinthefall/winterof2021/22.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1976to2024;*AsofFebruary2024.ReadmoreSource(s):EIA;en2xAveragemonthlyWestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilpricefromFebruary2022toFebruary2024(inU.S.dollarsperbarrel)WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilpricemonthly2022-2024114.84109.55108.5101.78101.6293.6791.6489.4387.5585.8484.2684.3781.3979.4578.1277.6977.2576.8376.4476.0774.1573.2871.5871.970.258Description:InFebruary2024,thepriceforonebarrelofWestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilaveraged77.25U.S.dollars.ThiswasanincreasecomparedtothepreviousyearandwasinpartinfluencedbyconcernsovertheRedSeacrisisamidanescalatingconflictintheMiddleEast.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;February2022toFebruary2024Source(s):EIA;en2xAverageconsumerpriceforheatingoilintheUnitedStatesfromwinterof2005/06towinterof2022/23(inU.S.dollarspergallon)WinterheatingoilpricesintheU.S.2005/06-2022/235.04.54.543.873.884.03.53.02.52.01.53.733.383.393.333.073.042.892.852.782.652.552.442.422.412.069Description:TheaveragepriceofheatingoilintheUnitedStatesinthewinterof2022/23isexpectedtoreach4.45U.S.dollarspergallon.Energypricesareexpectedtoseeasignificantincreasethiswinter,followinganenergysupplyshortageoffossilfuelssuchasnaturalgasandcoalinEuropeandAsia.Thenumberofheatingdegreedays,daystheaveragetemperatureisbelow18degreesCelsius(65degreesFahrenheit),helpsquantifytheenergydemandrequiredtoheatabuilding.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;winter2005/06to2022/23;*Pricesincludetaxes.**Forecast.Winter:October1throughMarch31.Thefiguresarecompiledfromseveraleditionsofthereport.

ReadmoreSource(s):EIAAverageU.S.HenryHubnaturalgaspricefrom2003to2022(inU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunit)AverageU.S.HenryHubnaturalgasprice2003-202210.09.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.02003

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202210Description:AveragenaturalgasintheU.S.HenryHubstoodat6.45U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunitin2022,anincreaseofnearly70percentwhencomparedtothepreviousyear.Overall,Henryhubnaturalgaspricesincreasedby0.82U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunit,peakingin2008at8.85U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunit.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2003to2022Source(s):EnergyInstitute;Kearney;KPMGWeeklyU.S.HenryHubnaturalgaspricesfromMarch4,2022toMarch1,2024(inU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits)U.S.HenryHubpricesperweek2022-202410.59.58.57.56.55.54.53.52.51.50.511Description:OnMarch1,2024,theHenryHubnaturalgaspriceamountedto1.58U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits.Thiswasanincreasecomparedtothepreviousweek.Generally,naturalgaspriceshavebeendecliningcomparedtotheprevioustwoyears.In2022pricessawanetincreaseduetoanenergycrunchthathadbeenworsenedbytheRussia-Ukrainewar.TheEuropeangasbenchmarkDutchTTFalsosoaredtorecordlevelsasaresult.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;March4,2022toMarch1,2024Source(s):EIA;NYMEXAveragepricesfornaturalgasintheUnitedStatesfrom2008to2022,bysector(inU.S.dollarsper1,000cubicfeet)NaturalgaspricesintheU.S.2008-2022,bysectorResidentialCommercialIndustrialElectricpower161412108642020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202212Description:Naturalgaspricesarethehighestintheresidentialsector.In2022,U.S.householdspaidanalltimehighaverageof14.8U.S.dollarsper1,000cubicfeet.Commercialnaturalgascostsweresecond-highest,whilepricesintheelectricpowersectorwerethelowest,ataroundfiveU.S.dollarsonaverage.Pricesfortheindustrialandelectricpowercustomerstendtobeclosetothewholesaleelectricityprice.Allsectorssawayear-on-yearincreaseinnaturalgaspricesfor2022duetothedecline[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2008to2022Source(s):EIA;USDepartmentofEnergyUnitedStatesCentralAppalachiancoalspotpricefrom1990to2022(inU.S.dollarspermetricton)CentralAppalachiancoalmarkerpriceintheU.S.1990-202218016014012010080604020013Description:TheU.S.CentralAppalachiancoalpriceisakeyindicatorforcoalpricesacrossthecountry.TheregionincludespartsofEasternKentucky,Virginia,WestVirginia,andTennessee,whicharesomeofthelargestcoalproducingstatesinthecountry.Attheendof2022,theCentralAppalachiancoalspotpricestoodat157.57U.S.dollarspermetricton.Thiswasmorethandoublethepricerecordedayearpreviousandalsothehighestpriceintheperiodofconsideration.Coalcommodityprices[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;1990to2022Source(s):OWID;S&PGlobalPlattsAverageweeklyUnitedStatesCentralAppalachiancoalspotpricefromMarch11,2022toMarch8,2024(inU.S.dollarspershortton)WeeklyCentralAppalachiancoalpriceintheU.S.2022-202425020015010050014Description:OnMarch8,2024,theU.S.CentralAppalachiancoalpricestoodat77.8U.S.dollarspershortton.ThiswasanincreasecomparedtothepreviousweekandcomesamidconcernsoverglobalcoalsuppliesasRussiabeganrestrictingexports.Nevertheless,figureswerestillnotablylowercomparedtothepreviousyearwhentighterfossilfuelsuppliesledtoasurgeinenergycommodityprices.CentralAppalachiancoalisproducedinpartsofEasternKentucky,Virginia,WestVirginia,and[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;March11,2022toMarch8,2024Source(s):EIA;SNLEnergyAveragepriceforcoalintheelectricpowersectorintheUnitedStatesfrom2012to2022,withaforecastuntil2024(inU.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunits)Coalenergyprices2012-20222.62.52.52.42.32.22.12.01.92.412.382.372.362.352.232.182.082.062.021.981.92201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023*2024*15/statistics/244479/us-consumer-price-estimates-for-coal-energyCoalpricesforelectricpowergenerationintheUnitedStateswas2.37U.S.dollarspermillionBritishthermalunitin2022.Thisisasteepincreasewhencomparedtothepreviousyear.Averagecoalpricesareforecasttoclimbfurtherinthefollowingyears.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2012to2022;*Projections.Pricesarenotadjustedforinflation.Accordingtothesource,priceestimatesareconsumption-weightedaveragepricesforallsectors,includingtheelectricpowersector.Figurespriorto2022[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):EIAAveragepriceofbiomassfeedstocksintheUnitedStatesasofOctober2023,byproduct(inU.S.dollarperton)BiomassfeedstockpricesintheU.S.2023,byproduct4539.7140353025201510537.1528.3726.640SawmillresidualsWoodproductmanufacturingresidualsRoundwood/pulpwoodOtherresiduals16Description:SawmillresiduewasthemostexpensivebiomassfeedstockintheUnitedStates.AsofOctober2023,pricesaveragednearly39.71U.S.dollarspermetrictonforsuchproducts.Bycomparison,roundwood/pulpwoodhadanaveragepriceof28.37U.S.dollarsperton.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;asofOctober2023Source(s):EIACHAPTER

03PowerplantsPlannedbaseovernightcostsofnewelectricitygeneratingstationsintheUnitedStatesin2023,bymajortechnology(inU.S.dollarsperkilowatt)BaseovernightcostsofnewpowerplantsintheU.S.2023,bytechnologyOvernightcostsinU.S.dollarsperkilowatt01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000SolarthermalNuclear-smallmodularreactorNuclear-lightwaterreactorUSC-90%carboncaptureandsequestration(CCS)Fuelcells8,731.888,348.587,776.517,319.177,290.58Windoffshore6,672.15USC-30%CCS5,633.11WoodandotherbiomassUltra-supercriticalcoal(USC)Conventionalhydropower*Geothermal*4,997.894,507.113,421.013,403.013,140Combined-cycle-90%CCSSolarphotovoltaicwithstorage*1,808.1918Description:SolarthermalpowerplantshavethehighestbaseovernightcostsofanyelectricitygeneratingstationintheUnitedStates.In2023,foronekilowattcapacity,baseovernightcostswouldamountto8,732U.S.dollars.Overnightcostsrefertothecostofconstructingthepowerplantifnointerestrateswereincurredduringtheconstructionprocess.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2023;in2022prices;*ForgeothermalpowerplantscostsarebasedonleastexpensiveoptionforaplantintheGreatBasinregion.ForhydropowerplantscostsarebasedonleastexpensiveoptionintheNorthwestregion.[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):EIAEstimatedcapitalcostsofenergygenerationintheUnitedStatesin2023,byenergysource(inU.S.dollarsperkilowatt)CapitalcostofenergyproductionintheU.S.2023,bytechnologyCapitalcostinU.S.dollarsperkilowattHighestimate4,000Lowestimate6,00002,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00013,925NuclearGeothermal8,4756,0754,7006,775Coal3,2003,0005,000Wind-offshore4,150SolarPV-rooftopresidentialWindwithstorage-onshoreSolarPV-communityandcommercial&industrialSolarPVandstorage-utility-scaleWind-onshore2,2302,2501,3751,2002,8501,6001,0751,7001,0251,400SolarPV-utility-scale7001,1501,300Gaspeaking700650Gascombinedcycle19Description:NuclearenergyhasthehighestestimatedcapitalcostsofanyenergytechnologyusedintheUnitedStates.Asof2023,capitalcostsfornuclearpowerplantsrangedbetween8,475and13,925U.S.dollarsperkilowatt.Astheradioactivematerialsusedandthewastecreatedrequirecarefulhandling,nuclearstationsareamongthemostexpensivetobuilt.ThenumberofU.S.nuclearpowerplantsfellto92in2022,from112plantsin1990.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2023Source(s):LazardEstimatedunsubsidizedlevelizedcostsofenergygenerationintheUnitedStatesin2023,bytechnology(inU.S.dollarspermegawatthour)LevelizedcostofenergyintheU.S.2023,bysourceUnsubsidizedlevelizedcostinU.S.dollarspermegawatthourHighestimate50Lowestimate1000150200250300282SolarPV-rooftopresidentialNuclear117221221141Gaspeaking115185SolarPV-communityandcommercial&industrialCoal496872166140Wind-offshore114Windwithstorage-onshoreSolarPVandstorage-utility-scaleGeothermal424610210261101Gascombinedcycle3996SolarPV-utility-scaleWind-onshore24247520Description:RooftopsolarphotovoltaicinstallationsonresidentialbuildingsandnuclearpowerhavethehighestunsubsidizedlevelizedcostsofenergygenerationintheUnitedStates.Ifnotforfederalandstatesubsidies,rooftopsolarPVwouldcomewithapricetagbetween117and282U.S.dollarspermegawatthour.Thesepricingestimatesarebasedonunderlyingassumptionsof60percentdebtmadewitheightpercentinterestrateand40percentequityat12percentcostforallenergy[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2023Source(s):LazardEstimatedlevelizedcapitalcostsofelectricityfornewpowerplantsintheUnitedStateswithoperationstartin2028,byenergysource(inU.S.dollarspermegawatt-hour)LevelizedcapitalcostsofelectricitygenerationintheU.S.2028,bysourceCapitalcostinU.S.dollarspermegawatt-hour0102030405060708090100OffshorewindAdvancednuclearCombustionturbineBatterystorageUltra-supercriticalcoalHydro*89.6162.1760.7557.8557.7352.14Biomass44.66Onshorewind37.46Solar(hybrid)*Solar(standalone)**Geothermal34.0927.5324.08Combinedcycle14.2921Description:IntheUnitedStates,newoffshorewindpower-generatingsitesenteringthegridin2028hadestimatedcapitalcostsof89.61U.S.dollarspermegawatt-hour,asof2022calculations.Advancednuclearplantshadanestimatedcostof62.17dollarspermegawatt-hour.Themoredifficulttheinitialconstructionofapowerplant,thehighertheassociatedcapitalcosts.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2022;Unweightedaveragelevelizedcostsin2022U.S.dollars;*Accordingtothesource,hydroelectricandhybridsolarPVgeneratingassetsareassumedhaveseasonalanddiurnalstorage,respectively,sothattheycanbe[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):EIAFixedandvariablecostsfortheoperationandmaintenanceofnewpowerplantsintheUnitedStatesasof2022,bytechnologytypeO&McostsofnewpowerplantsintheU.S.2022,bytechnologyFixedcosts(inU.S.dollarsperkilowattperyear)Variablecosts(inU.S.dollarspermegawatt-hour)020406080100120140160180153.98Geothermal*(2026)Biomass(2026)1.315.442.67141.5136.91Nuclear-lightwaterreactor(2028)Windoffshore*(2026)123.810106.92Nuclear-smallmodularreactor(2028)Solarthermal*(2024)3.3896.1067.0261.11USCwith90%CCS(2026)USCwith30%CCS(2026)Conventionalhydropower*(2026)Batterystorage(2023)12.357.9747.0645.7645.681.570Ultra-supercriticalcoal(USC)(2026)Fuelcells(2025)5.060.6634.6522Description:ThecoststorunandmaintainanewpowerplantintheUnitedStatesvarygreatlybythetypeoftechnologydeployed.Ageothermalpowerplantcommissionedin2022andwiththeearliestpossibleyearofoperationbeing2026couldexpecttohavefixedcostsaround154U.S.dollarsperkilowattinstalledperyear.TheU.S.alreadyoperates61geothermalpowerplants,themajorityofwhicharelocatedinCaliforniaandNevada.Costsaredependentonmultiplefactors,suchasrawmaterials[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2022;in2022U.S.dollars;*Beforepotentialtaxcreditaccreditations.ForgeothermalpowerplantscostsarebasedonleastexpensiveoptionforaplantintheGreatBasinregion.Forhydropowerplantscostsarebasedon[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):EIA;Varioussources(Sargent&Lundy,OakRidgeNationalLab,IdahoNationalEngineeringandEnvironmentalLaboratory,NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory)CHAPTER

04ElectricityAverageretailelectricitypricesintheUnitedStatesinselectedyearsfrom1990to2023(inU.S.dollarcentsperkilowatt-hour)ElectricityretailpricesintheU.S.1990-2023141210864201990

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202324Description:TheretailpriceforelectricityintheUnitedStatesstoodatanaverageof12.72U.S.dollarcentsperkilowatt-hourin2023.Thisisthehighestfigurereportedintheindicatedperiod.Nevertheless,theU.S.stillhasoneofthelowestelectricitypricesworldwide.Asamajorproducerofprimaryenergy,energypricesarelowerthanincountriesthataremorereliantonimportsorimposehighertaxes.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;1990to2023;IncludingtaxesSource(s):EIAProjectedaverageend-useelectricitypriceintheUnitedStatesfrom2022to2050(inU.S.centsperkilowatt-hour)U.S.averageelectricitypriceforecast2022-20501412.21211.311.2111110.710.4108642020222025*2030203520402045205025Description:In2022,theaverageend-useelectricitypriceintheUnitedStatesstoodataround12.2U.S.centsperkilowatt-hour.Thisfigureisprojectedtodecreaseinthecomingthreedecades,toreachsome11U.S.centsperkilowatt-hourby2050.

ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;2022;averageofallsectors.In2022U.S.dollars.,br>*Forecastfromthisyearonward.Source(s):EIAAverageretailpricesofelectricityintheUnitedStatesfrom1998to2022,bysector(inU.S.centsperkilowatt-hour)ElectricityretailpriceintheU.S.1998-2022,bysectorResidentialCommercial**Transportation***Industrial****16141210864201998

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202226Description:In2022,theretailpriceofelectricityforresidentialcustomersintheUnitedStatesaveraged15.12U.S.centsperkilowatt-hour.Householdsarechargedmorethanthecommercialandindustrialsectors,ingeneralduetohigherdistributioncosts.Since2020,electricitycustomershaveseenelectricitypricesincreaseintheU.S.andpeakin2022.ReadmoreNote(s):UnitedStates;1998to2022;Includingtaxes;*Pricesarenotadjustedforinflation.**Figuresuntil2002excludepublicstreetandhighwaylighting,interdepartmentalsales,andothersalestopublicauthorities.***Includespublicrailroads[...]ReadmoreSource(s):EIAAverageretailelectricitypriceforindustrialconsumersintheUnitedStatesfrom1970to2023(inU.S.dollarcentsperkilowatt-hour)IndustrialretailelectricitypriceintheU.S.1970-202398.328.0687.187.16.896.916.88

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202327/statistics/190680/us-industrial-consumer-price-estimates-for-retail-electricity-since-1970IndustrialconsumersofelectricityintheUnitedStatespaidanaverageof8.06U.S.dollarcentsperkilowatt-hourin2023.Thisfiguremarkedadecreaseco