全球经济指标分析报告（英文版）-2024年1月上传培训课件

POLITICS

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SOCIETYGlobaleconomicindicatorsCHAPTER

01IndicatorsofrealactivityGrowthoftheglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)from1980to2022,withforecastsuntil2028(comparedtothepreviousyear)Growthoftheglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)20288.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%4Description:Inmostyearssince1980,globalGDPgrowthhasbeenrelativelyconsistent,generallyfluctuatingbetweentwoandfivepercentgrowthfromyeartoyear.ThemostnotableexceptionstothiswereduringtheGreatRecessionin2009,andagainin2020duringtheCovid-19pandemic,wheretheglobaleconomyactuallyshrankinbothoftheseyears.Astheworldeconomycontinuestodealwiththeeconomicimpactofthepandemic,aswellasthefalloutfromRussia'sinvasionofUkrainein2022,[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;October2023;*Forecast.ReadmoreSource(s):IMFGrowthoftherealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)intheG20from1stquarter2021to1stquarter2023Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthintheG201stquarter2023Comparedtothepreviousquarter16%Comparedtothesamequarterofthepreviousyear13.4%14%12%10%8%6%5.2%5%4.6%3.7%4%3.3%3.3%2.7%2.3%1.71%1.5%1.4%2%1.16%0.86%0.9%0.5%0.46%Q220220.4%Q420220%Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42021Q12022QuartersQ32022Q120235Description:Thestatisticshowsthegrowthoftherealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)intheG20fromthefirstquarterof2021tothefirstquarterof2023.TheG20arethegroupofthetwentymostsignificantindustrialandemergingeconomies.TheG20ismadeupof19statesandtheEuropeanUnion.GDPreferstothetotalmarketvalueofallgoodsandservicesthatareproducedwithinacountryperyear.Itisanimportantindicatoroftheeconomicstrengthofacountry.Inthefirstquarterof2023,the[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;SeasonallyadjustedSource(s):OECDGrowthoftherealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)intheG20statesin2ndquarter2023Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthintheG20states2ndquarter2023GDPgrowthComparedtothesamequarterofthepreviousyearComparedtothepreviousquarter5%

6%0%1%2%3%4%7%8%5.1%TurkeyIndiaJapanBrazilMexico3.5%7.3%1.9%1.7%1.2%3.3%3.5%0.9%0.8%6.3%China0.8%0.8%4.9%IndonesiaSouthKoreaSouthAfricaUnitedStatesG200.9%0.6%0.6%0.5%1.7%2.5%1.6%0.5%0.5%1%France6Description:Thestatisticshowsthegrowthoftherealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)intheG20statesinthesecondquarterof2023.TheG20areagroupoftwentymajorindustrialandemergingeconomies,consistingof19countriesandtheEuropeanUnion.Grossdomesticproductreferstothetotalvalueofallgoodsandservicesproducedduringtheyearwithinacountryandenduseintended.Itisconsideredanimportantindicatoroftheeconomicstrengthofacountry.Realgrossdomesticproduct[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;Seasonallyadjusted;*asoffirstquarter2023.ReadmoreSource(s):OECDGlobalindustrialproductiongrowthbetweenJanuary2019toAugust2023,byregionIndustrialproductiongrowthworldwide2019-2023,byregionWorld(ex.U.S.)Advanced(ex.U.S.)EmergingU.S.40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%Jan

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'237Description:InAugust2023,globalindustrialproduction,excludingtheUnitedStates,fellby0.16percentcomparedtothesametimeinthepreviousyear,basedonthreemonthmovingaverages.Thisiscomparedtoadecreaseof2.3percentinadvancedeconomies(excludingtheUnitedStates)forthesametimeperiod.TheglobalindustrialproductioncollapsedaftertheoutbreakofCOVID-19,butincreasedsteadilyinthemonthsafter,peakingat23percentinJune2021.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2019toAugust2023;aggregatedusingU.S.tradeweightsSource(s):DallasFed;HaverAnalyticsGlobalconsumerconfidenceindevelopedandemergingcountriesfromJanuary2020toSeptember2023Globalconsumerconfidenceindex2020-202350.049.148.34948.848.648.748.548.548.448.348.448.448.247.747.647.6

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46.245.945.945.545.844.844.443.74443.343.24342.642.141.641.641.740.639.539.48Description:InApril2020,theglobalconsumerconfidenceindexof23countries**worldwidedroppedto39.5followingtheoutbreakoftheCOVID-19pandemic.ItthenslowlyincreaseduntilJuly2021,whenitreachedanindexscoreof49.1.Globalconsumerconfidencedroppedinthelatterhalfof2022followingrisinginflationrates,buthasbeenincreasingsinceNovemberthatyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2020toSeptember2023;23,200respondents;18yearsandolder*;32countries,single-monthdata;*18+inIndia,18-74inCanada,Israel,Malaysia,SouthAfrica,Turkey,andtheUnitedStates,20-74inThailand,21-74[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):IpsosConsumerconfidenceindevelopedandemergingcountriesinNovember2023Consumerconfidenceindevelopedandemergingcountries2023Indexscore300102040506070GlobalaverageIndonesiaIndia47.263.263.1Mexico60.8SingaporeBrazil58.657.156.3ThailandUnitedStatesNetherlandsAustraliaPoland52.251.550.249Sweden48Canada47.39Description:IndonesiaandIndiahadthehighestconsumerconfidenceofthe29countriesasofNovember2023.Ontheotherhand,consumerconfidencewaslowestinTurkeyandHungary.Onaverage,consumerconfidenceinthe29countriesincludedinthesurveyreachedanindexscoreof47.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;October20toNovember3,2023;21,200in29countries;16yearsandolder*;*18yearsandolderinIndia,18-74yearsinCanada,Israel,Malaysia,SouthAfrica,Turkey,andtheUnitedStates,20-74yearsinThailand,21-74years[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):IpsosGlobaleconomicpolicyuncertaintyindexfromJanuary2019toAugust2023Globalpolicyuncertaintyindexmonthly2019-2023450400428.18364.823553.5365.15326.49299.29349.4350300250200150329.45327.35299.29314.92312.98313.44314.73305.42293.56278.61298.56279.69288.8287.88272.26254.92271.83263.87256.44251.25263.71260.68248.65238.53260.54258.81249.27245.33233.53230.39226.172282.3718.58228.49227.84225.542142.2153.7214.06204.04203.95193.33213.06204.48190.01197.45188.97177.27190.57Jan

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'2310Description:InAugust2023,theglobaleconomicpolicyuncertaintyindexamountedto213.Thisisadecreasefromthepreviousmonth.Throughmostof2022,theuncertaintyindexwasrelativelyhigh,influencedbytheRussianinvasionoftheUkraineandhighinflationrates.However,itwasstilllowerthaninthefirstmonthsaftertheoutbreakofCOVID-19in2020,andwaslowerthroughmostof2023thanthepreviousyear.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2019toAugust2023Source(s):EconomicPolicyUncertaintyRankingoftherealpercapitaconsumerspendingbycountry2020(inU.S.dollars)Realconsumerspendingpercapitaworldwide2020,bycountryPercapitaspendinginU.S.dollars15,000

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25,00005,00010,00030,00035,00040,00045,000UnitedStatesSwitzerlandIceland39,645.8137,602.3136,231.59LuxembourgNorway33,588.4428,748.8228,641.46AustraliaDenmarkCanadaFinland24,878.6524,773.6823,200.81NewZealandSweden23,084.3222,913.8AustriaUnitedKingdom22,286.821,633.4211Description:Thisstatisticshowsarankingoftheestimatedworldwiderealpercapitaconsumerspendingin2020,differentiatedbycountry.Consumerspendingherereferstothedomesticdemandofprivatehouseholdsandnon-profitinstitutionsservinghouseholds(NPISHs)intheselectedregion.Spendingbycorporationsorthestateisnotincluded.Consumerspendingisthebiggestcomponentofthegrossdomesticproductascomputedonanexpenditurebasisinthecontextofnational[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Albania;2019;Allvaluesareestimates.Source(s):CHAPTER

02Employment&wagesGlobalunemploymentratefrom2003to2022(asashareofthetotallaborforce)Globalunemploymentrate2003-20227.0%6.9%6.54%6.46%6.42%6.5%6.0%5.5%5.0%6.34%6.35%6.19%6.2%6.14%6.12%6.06%6.01%6%5.98%5.87%5.87%5.85%5.77%5.7%5.54%2003

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202213Description:TheunemploymentrateintheWorlddecreasedby0.4percentagepoints(-6.45percent)sincethepreviousyear.ReadmoreNote(s):2003to2022Source(s):WorldBankQuarterlyunemploymentratesindevelopedandemergingcountriesfromQ22017toQ22023Quarterlyunemploymentratesindevelopedandemergingcountries2017-2023UnitedStatesChinaJapanGermanyEuro-ZoneFranceUnitedKingdomBrazil16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q22017

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202314Description:Fromthesecondquarterof2017,Brazilwasthecountryofthoseincludedinthechartwiththehighestunemploymentrates.However,ithasbeendecreasingconstantlysincethesecondquarterof2021,reachingeightpercentinthesecondquarterof2023.Inthesamequarter,Japanhadthelowestunemploymentrateofthecountriesincluded.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;Q22017toQ22023Source(s):BrazilianInstituteofGeographyandStatistics;MOHRSS;OECDEmploymentrateinmajordevelopedcountriesfrom2ndquarter2017to3rdquarter2023Quarterlyemploymentrateinmajordevelopedcountries2017-2023Euro-ZoneGermany*FranceJapanUnitedKingdomUnitedStates80%75%70%65%60%Q4

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202315Description:Ofthemajordevelopedeconomies,Japanhadthehighestemploymentrateinthesecondquarterof2023,with79percentoftheworkingagepopulationengagedinpaidemployment.Thisisperhapsnotsurprising,giventhecountry'sfamouslylowfertilityrate.Inthesamequarter,Francereportedthelowestemploymentrateat68.5.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;Q12017toQ32023;15-64yearsSource(s):OECDAverageannualwagesinmajordevelopedcountriesfrom2008to2022(inU.S.dollars)Averageannualwagesinmajordevelopedcountries2008-2022GermanyFranceJapanUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesCanadaItaly80,00075,00070,00065,00060,00055,00050,00045,00040,00035,00030,00020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202216Description:Ofthesevenlargestdevelopedeconomies,in2022,theUnitedStateshadthehighestaveragewagebyasignificantmarginatslightlyover77,000U.S.dollarsperyear.Canadahadthesecondhighestannualaveragewagesataround59,050U.S.dollarsperyear,andGermanyfollowedbehindwitharound58,940U.S.dollarsperyear.Meanwhile,Japanhadthelowestaveragewagesoutofthesevenlargestdevelopedeconomiesataround41,509U.S.dollarsperyear.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2008to2022Source(s):OECDWagegrowthinmajordevelopedcountriesfromJanuary2020toSeptember2023Wagegrowthindevelopedcountries2019-2023JapanUnitedKingdomUnitedStates20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%17Description:Japanrecordedthelowestgrowthrateinaveragewagesofthethreeadvancedmajoreconomiesincludedhereoverrecentyears,withayear-on-yearincreaseofonly1.2percentinSeptember2023.ThiscomparestoagrowthrateofeightpercentintheUnitedKingdom,and5.3percentintheUnitedStatesinthismonth.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2020

toSeptember2023Source(s):BEA;MHLW(Japan);OfficeforNationalStatistics(UK);TradingEconomicsNominalwageandsalarygrowthintheEuropeanUnionandEurocurrencyareafromQ22009toQ22023NominalwageandsalarygrowthintheEuropeanUnionandEuroarea2009-2023EuropeanUnionEuroarea6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%Q1

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202318Description:NominalwagegrowthinboththeEuropeanUnionandtheEurocurrencyarea(comprising20ofthe27EUmembers)reachedarecordhighinthefourthquarterof22,whenwagesincreasedby5.6and5.4percentrespectively.Nominalwagegrowthistheincreaseinwagescomparedtothesameperiodthepreviousyearinnominalvalues-i.e.inmonetaryvaluesunadjustedforinflation.AsinflationinEuropeincreasefasterthannominalwagesduringthisperiod,thisinfactmeantthatreal[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Europe,EU;Q22009toQ22023Source(s):EurostatCHAPTER

03PriceindicatorsHeadlineconsumerpriceindexworldwidefromJanuary2020toAugust2023,byregionMonthlyheadlineconsumerpriceindex2019-2023,byregionWorld(ex.U.S.)Advanced(ex.U.S.)EmergingU.S.28026024022020018016014012010020Description:InAugust2023,theglobalconsumerpriceindex,excludingtheUnitedStates,stoodat190.9,comparedto156.9fortheU.S.ThedatafortheworldandemergingeconomiesaredistortedbyhyperinflationinVenezuelaandmaynotaccuratelyreflecttheinflationrateofothercountries.However,Russia'swarinUkrainecausedasurgeinpricesgloballythrough2022and2023.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;Janurary2020toAugust2023Source(s):DallasFed;HaverAnalyticsAnnualchangeinConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)inselectedcountriesworldwidefrom2015to2022AnnualchangeinCPI2015-2022,bycountryArgentinaIndiaSouthAfricaAustraliaIrelandSpainBrazilItalyChinaJapanUnitedKingdomFranceRussiaUnitedStatesGermanySaudiArabiaTürkiye80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%2015201620172018201920202021202221Description:TheConsumerPriceIndexmeasuresthechangeinpriceofgoodsandservicesinacountry.In2022,theworldsawinflationratesincreaseamid,amongother,post-COVID-19effectsandtheRussia-Ukrainewar.ArgentinaandTürkiyewerebothplaguedbyhyperinflationatover70percent.Exceptforthese,Brazilhadthehighestinflationrateat9.3percent.Ontheotherhand,SaudiArabiaandJapanhadthelowestrateofthecountriesincludedhereat2.5percent.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2015to2022Source(s):OECDMonthlyinflationratesindevelopedandemergingcountriesfromJanuary2021toOctober2023(comparedtothesamemonthofthepreviousyear)Monthlyinflationratesindevelopedandemergingcountries2021-2023UnitedStatesChinaJapanGermanyEuroZoneFranceUnitedKingdomBrazilRussiaIndiaItaly20%15%10%5%0%-5%Jan

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'2322Description:Ofthemajordevelopedandemergingeconomies,Chinahadanegativeinflationrateofminus0.2percentinOctober2023,tofallingintodeflation.Ontheotherendofthespectrum,theinflationrateinRussiastoodat6.7percent.Thecountry'sinflationrateincreasedsharplyafterthecountry'sPresident,VladimirPutin,decidedtoinvadeUkraine,butdeclinedsomewhatsince.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2021toOctober2023Source(s):BrazilianInstituteofGeographyandStatistics;BureauofLaborStatistics;Eurostat;Insee;Istat;LabourBureauIndia;NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina;OfficeforNationalStatistics(UK);RussianFederalStateStatisticsService;StatisticsBureauof[...]ProducerPriceIndex(PPI)/WholesalePriceIndex(WPI)InflationworldwidefromJanuary2019toSeptember2023,byregionProducerPriceIndex/WholesalePriceIndexInflationworldwide2019-2023World(ex.U.S.)Advanced(ex.U.S.)EmergingU.S.225205185165145125105Jan

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'2323Description:InSeptember2023,theglobalproducerpriceindex(PPI)/wholesalepriceindexinflation(WPI),excludingtheU.S.,stoodat176.08.IntheUnitedStates,theindexvalueamountedto167.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2019toSeptember2023Source(s):DallasFed;HaverAnalyticsMonthlyProducerPriceIndex(PPI)forallcommoditiesinmajoreconomiesfromJanuary2020toSeptember2023ProducerPriceIndex(PPI)allcommoditiesinmajoreconomies:2020-2023UnitedStatesChinaJapanEuroarea1801701601501401301201101009024Description:InAugust2023,theProducerPriceIndex(PPI)intheEuroZonewasthehighestinthefourcountries/areasunderconsideration.Thatmonth,itsindexscorestoodatnearly146,comparedtoroughly143intheUntiedStates,whichwasthesecondhighestinthefourareas.Japan'sandChina'sindexscoreswerearound120and110,respectively.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2020toSeptember2023Source(s):TradingEconomicsMonthlychangeintheProducerPriceIndex(PPI)forallcommoditiesinmajoreconomiesfromJanuary2020toOctober2023ProducerPriceIndex(PPI)changeinmajoreconomies2020-2023UnitedStatesChinaJapanEuroarea50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%25Description:Through2022,thechangesinProducerPriceIndex(PPI)wereatahighrateacrossallregions,beforefallingthroughthelastquarterof2022andthefirstmonthsof2023.IntheEuroArea,themonthlychangewasover40percentinAugust2022,butstoodatminus12.5inSeptember2023.Meanwhile,Chinahadanegativeindexrateof2.5percentthesamemonth.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2020toOctober2023Source(s):TradingEconomicsAnnualaverageWTIandBrentcrudeoilspotpricesfrom1990to2022(inU.S.dollarsperbarrel)WTIandBrentcrudeoil'saverageannualspotprices1990-2022WestTexasIntermediateEuropeBrent1251058565452551990

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202226Description:TheaveragespotpriceforWestTexasIntermediatecrudeoilcameto94.9U.S.dollarsperbarrelin2022,anincreaseof39percentfromthepreviousyear.Figuresin2020wereroughly15U.S.dollarslowerthantheaverage2019spotpriceandlinkedtolowerconsumerdemandfollowingtravelrestraintsimplementedbygovernmentsaroundtheworldasasafetymeasureagainstthecoronaviruspandemic.The2021averagespotpriceforBrentcrudeoilwas70.86U.S.dollars.BothBrent[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;1990to2022Source(s):EIA;ThomsonReutersGlobalPurchasingManagerIndex(PMI)formanufacturingandnewexportordersfromJanuary2018toOctober2023GlobalPMIformanufacturingandnewexportorders2018-2023NewexportordersManufacturing605550454035302520Jan

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'2327Description:InOctober2023,theglobalPMIamountedto47.5fornewexportordersand49formanufacturing.ThemanufacturingPMIwasait'slowestpointinAugustof2020.Itdecreasedoverthelastmonthsof2022aftereffectsoftheRussia-Ukrainewarandrisinginflationhittheworldeconomy,andremainedjustbelow50since.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2018toOctober2023Source(s):HaverAnalytics;IHSMarkit;JPMorganChase;WorldBankManufacturingPMI(IndustrialPMI)inkeydevelopedandemergingeconomiesfromJanuary2020toOctober2023(50=nochange)PurchasingManagersIndex(PMI)indevelopedandemergingcountries2020-2023UnitedStatesChinaJapanGermanyEuroZoneFranceUnitedKingdomBrazilRussiaIndia706560555045403530252028Description:AsofOctober2023,thePurchasingManager'sIndex(PMI)inallmajoreconomiesexcepttheUnitedStates,Russia,andIndiawasbelow50,indicatingadecreaseinindustrialproduction.Forexample,thePMIintheGermanystoodat40.8asofOctober2023.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2020toOctober2023;seasonallyadjustedSource(s):ChinaFederationofLogistics&Purchasing;ISM;Markit;NationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaGlobalPurchasingManagerIndex(PMI)oftheindustrialsectorfromAugust2021toAugust2023(50=nochange)GlobalPurchasingManagerIndex(PMI)oftheindustrialsectorAugust2023Indexvalue(50=nochange)0102030405060Aug'21Sep'21Oct'21Nov'21Dec'21Jan'22Feb'22Mar22Apr'22May'22Jun'22Jul'2254.154.154.354.254.253.253.652.952.352.352.251.151.5Aug'2229Description:ThisstatisticshowstheglobalPurchasingManagerIndex(PMI)oftheindustrialsectorfromAugust2021toAugust2023.InAugust2023,theglobalEMIwasat49points.ReadmoreNote(s):WorldwideSource(s):JPMorganChase;MarkitCHAPTER

04TradeindicatorsChangeinglobalgoodstradevolumefromJanuary2018toAugust2023Monthlychangeingoodstradeglobally2018-202310%5%0%-5%-10%-15%Jan

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'2331Description:InMay2023,globaltradevolumeingoodsincreasedby0.3percentcomparedtothepreviousmonth.Globaltradevolumesfellby12.9percentinApril2020followingtheoutbreakoftheCOVID-19pandemic.However,globaltradequicklyrecovered,growingbyoversevenpercentinJunethatyear.SinceSeptember2020,ithashadamonthlygrowthlevelbetween2.9andminus2.0percent.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2018toAugust2023Source(s):NetherlandsBureauforEconomicPolicyAnalysisGrowthinGDPandtradevolumeworldwidefrom2007to2025ChangeinGDPandtradevolumeglobally2007-2025GDP(RHS)Trade15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

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2025**32Description:In2020,boththeglobaltradevolumeandthegrowthinGDPdroppedfollowingtheoutbreakofCOVID-19.Itincreasedagainin2021,butisestimatedtoslowsomewhatin2022and2023followingtherisingglobalinflationrates.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2007to2022;*Estimate.**Forecast.Tradeistheaverageofexportandimportvolumes.AggregategrowthratescalculatedusingGDPweightsat2010pricesandmarketexchangerates.

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ReadmoreSource(s):WorldBankGlobalmerchandiseexportsindexfromJanuary2019toSeptember2023,byregionGlobalmerchandiseexportsindex2019-2023,byregionWorld(ex.U.S.)Advanced(ex.U.S.)EmergingU.S.40035030025020015010050Jan

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'2333Description:InAugust2023,themerchandiseexportsindexworldwide,excludingtheU.S.,stoodat198.Thisiscomparedtoanindexvalueof144fortheUnitedStatesinthesamemonth.Theindexwashighestinemergingeconomies,reachinganindexscoreof327.Moreover,themerchandiseimportsindexwasalsohighestinemergingeconomies.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2019toSeptember2023;aggregatedusingU.S.tradeweightsSource(s):DallasFed;HaverAnalyticsGlobalmerchandiseimportsindexbetweenJanuary2019toSeptember2023,byregionGlobalmerchandiseimportsindex2019-2023,byregionWorld(ex.U.S.)Advanced(ex.U.S.)EmergingU.S.35030025020015010050Jan

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'2334Description:InAugust2023,theglobalmerchandiseimportsindex,excludingtheU.S.,stoodat186.Thisiscomparedtoavalueof116fortheUnitedStatesinthesameperiod.Inemergingeconomies,itreachedanindexlevelofnearly275.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2019toSeptember2023;aggregatedusingU.S.tradeweightsSource(s):DallasFed;HaverAnalyticsMonthlybalancevaluesoftheifoexpo